technology
HUMAN PROGRESS
HUMAN PROGRESS THROUGH TIME
YOU ARE HERE
TIME
Diagram 2
HUMAN PROGRESS
Diagram 1
TIME
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writer and TED speaker Tim Urban illustrated, we’re reaching the verge of a new paradigm that will sweep the world:
Revolution’, Urban observed that an ‘S-curve’ is formed every time waves of progress driven by new paradigms sweep the world. Zooming out from the situation presented above, this chart shows the bigger picture:
The S-curve: Why 2018? In his article back in 2015, ‘The AI
less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years
Cognitive Computing
more than 10 years
Blockchain Commercial UAVs (Drones)
Smart Workspace Conversational User Interfaces Volumetric Displays
Brain -Computer Interface
E X P E C TA T I O N S
Plateau will be reached in:
Cognitive Expert Advisors
Digital Twin Serverless Paas 5G
Neuromorphic Hardware
4D Printing
Human Augmentation Deep Reinforcement Learning Artificial General Intelligence
Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management
Virtual Reality
Software-Defined Security Augmented Reality
Smart Dust As of July 2017
Innovation Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Through of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
TIME 24
GIBRALTAR MAGAZINE FEBRUARY 2018
Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017 © 2017 Gartner. Inc.
Deep Learning Machine Learning Autonomous Vehicles Nanotube Electronics
Augmented Data Discovery
Quantum Computing
3. A leveling off as the particular paradigm matures
verge of a new paradigm that will sweep the world.
Connected Home
Edge Computing
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For 2018, AI may just be at the tail end of the slow growth phase, as it’s more ready than ever to accelerate after the high adoption rates we saw over the past year. Just like growth of the Internet As Urban explained, the curve goes between 1995 and 2007, adoption was through three phases: the first struggle, which subsequently lead to an explosion of different use cases 1. Slow growth (the early phase of expoof the Internet - from social networking nential growth) like MySpace, the birth of search engine companies like Google, 2. Rapid growth (the late, exWe’re and then the entire e-commerce plosive phase of exponential reaching the industry. growth)
What Tim illustrates (diagram 1) was part of a larger concept which he coined the ‘S-curve’ (diagram 2). That was published back in 2015 at the time we first started to see a rise in adoption of AI in enterprise businesses. Now it’s 2018, so let’s re-visit his theory to see what the S-curve is and it means for today:
Virtual Assistants IoT Platform Smart Robots
THE S-CURVE WAVE OF A NEW PARADIGM AS IT EXPLODES INTO GROWTH AND THEN MATURES