150000 150000 130000 130000 110000 110000 90000 90000 70000 70000 50000 50000
Gibraltar 3rd in the world for GDP per capita Gibraltar 3rd in the world for GDP per capita
• turnover in financial services industries; and • increased levels of construction (with the private sector “taking more of the lead”.)
Increased levels of construction
The real challenge for the University of Gibraltar is to account for the employee job deficit...
Simply accounting for these growth drivers, what would the impact of Brexit be on Gibraltar’s economy, both for opting in or out? The assessment would be yours to make. By now, one would, at the very least, have expected some mention to have been made as to the perceived economic impact on Gibraltar’s economy. Some economic analysis must surely have had been conducted, in Gibraltar, the results of which could have been released to benefit Gibraltarians in contemplating their Brexit vote. In the absence of such, Gibraltar’s referendum vote is no more than an emotive vote, rather than an economically informed vote. Increases in employment According to the Abstract of Statistics 2014 in 2014, there were 24,422 employee jobs, compared to 21,519 in 2012. On the assumption that Gibraltar’s economically active population is aged between 20 to 59 years and having extrapolated the Population by Age Group figures of the 2012 Census, and also accounting for Total Gibraltarians in Employment, as per Budget 2015, in 2012 there was a shortage of 10,788 employee jobs, compared to 13,431 in 2014. In percentage terms, it equates to 50.13% and 55.00% respectively. It is quite evident that Gibraltar has a substantial employee job deficit, and has a significant reliance on attracting non-Gibraltarian employees. To make any assessment on the type of employee jobs that Gibraltar requires, the only possible source to consider is the Number of Employee Jobs by Industry, 24
ployment numbers, a trend which is also apparent in the financial service industry. Collectively, employment in the financial service industry has risen to 3,388 in 2014/2015. The insurance industry accounted for £22.6 million in corporation tax a 1,155% increase on 2010/11. From 2010/11 to 2014/15 corporation taxes, in total, grew by 206%.
October 2014, of which the largest number of employees are allocated in: other services (16.96%), wholesale and retail trade (13.29%), construction (12.35%), real estate and business activities (11.78%), public administration (9.17%), health (8.85%) and financial intermediation (8.40%). The real challenge for the University of Gibraltar is to account for the employee job deficit and to devise courses to address Gibraltar’s economic desires and imperatives. Nothing else would do. Turnover in online gaming
According to the Department of Employment, there were 2,398 registered frontier workers in the construction industry in March 2016, compared to 1,452 in March 2014, a 65.15% increase. The government website contains the current Government Development Projects (Applications), whilst the Budget Address referenced new projects such as the blocks of flats at Ocean Village, development in the area of Victory Place and at Rooke, the Blue Water Resort, the establishment of an entirely safe Liquified Natural Gas (LNS) storage, regasification and bunkering facility. The Question - The Choices The UK Prime Minister announced on 20 February 2016 a referendum on whether the United Kingdom (not Britain) should remain in the European Union (EU). [Why is it called Brexit and not UKexit? It’s not the ‘same difference’?]
To account for further flawed terminology, a ‘referendum’ is a general vote by registered voters to answer a single political question by selecting ‘Yes’ or The gaming ‘No’. Whichever vote secures more than half of the votes cast industry contributed is considered to have won. The Electoral Commission’s proover £33 posed the ballot paper wording, million in accepted by Members of Parliacorporation ment (MPs), ‘Should the United tax in Kingdom remain a member of the 2014/15... European Union or leave the European Union?’ with the options for voters to ‘Remain a member of the European Turnover in financial service industry Union’ or ‘Leave the European Union’. This is the UK’s second referendum on its For the insurance industry, PAYE increased EU membership. The first was announced to £4.3 million, this according to the Budon 23 January 1975 shortly after the UK get Address, as a result of a growth in emAccording to the Budget Address in 2014/15 pay-as-you-earn (PAYE), for the gaming industry, increased to £22.5 million, which according to the gaming regulator, was due to the rising numbers of industry employees, from 2,665 to 3,423. The employee jobs can only be classified as other services, which as above, accounts for 16.96% of all employee jobs. The gaming industry contributed £33.42 million in corporation tax in 2014/15, a 318% increase on 2010/11.
PAYE for key sectors in £’m
40
30
35.96
36.24
FY 2013/2014
FY 2014/2015
32.09
31.26 28.31
20
10
0
FY 2010/2011
FY 2011/2012 Insurance Industry
FY 2012/2013 Gaming & Betting
Financial Services
PAYE from these Sectore
From Chief Minister’s Budget Address and Measures 2015
From Chief Minister’s Budget Address and Measures 2015
economy
GIBRALTAR MAGAZINE JUNE 2016