Page 24 - May 2011 ~ Danville Today News
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Danville Real Estate Review: Distressed Sales are 36% of Declining Market
The selling season has begun in earnest, and I thought it might be useful to look at the sales data year to date through April 23, 2010 and compare it with previous selling seasons going back to the market peak in 2006. This should give us some insight into whether the Danville Market has reached a bottom or yet darker days lie ahead. As of this writing, 219 homes are for sale in Danville. The average list price is $1,018,776. The average sold price is $752,284 or 26% less than asking price. Pending sales are solid with a total of 134. The pending square foot price is sitting at $309 per square foot or only slightly higher than properties just sold. Forty-eight or 36% of these homes are pending “Subject to Bank Approval.” It is not clear to me whether this number will increase, decrease or stay the same in the months ahead. Only the banks know. I do believe, however, that the very presence of distressed sales in our market at this elevated level will continue to have a dampening effect on prices. Changes in this number in either direction will most likely dictate the future of home prices in Danville. Looking at the chart, we can see that sold price is down -27% from the peak in 2006 and down -3% from this time last year. Dollars Danville Home Sales Dollars/Sq. Ft. Danville Home Sales Dollars/Sq. Ft. paid per square foot tells a slightly grimmer $445 $442 $450 $445 story, down -32% from the peak and down $442 $450 $388 $400 -11% from the same time period last year. $388 $400 $335 $335 $350 Please note that the average price decline $335 $335 $350 $301 $300 from 2009 to 2010 was about $16,000 and $301 $300 the average price decline from 2010-2011 $250 $250 was roughly $20,000. This number suggests $200 $200 an accelerating rate of price decline moving $150 $150 forward and is not encouraging at all. $100 $100 Very interesting is the change in the Sq. $50 $50 Ft. column which shows that the imputed size $$Peak 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 of homes that are selling is on the rise hitting Peak 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2006
Peak 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. from '06-'11 % Chg. from '10-'11
Danville Home Sales Jan.1-April 23 2006-2011 Units Sold Days on Mkt. List Price Sold Price $ Sq. Foot 169 20 $ 1,058,074 $ 1,036,702 $ 445 196 38 $ 1,008,597 $ 982,603 $ 442 113 71 $ 936,471 $ 897,540 $ 388 99 81 $ 833,692 $ 788,306 $ 335 170 47 $ 794,861 $ 772,354 $ 335 158 53 $ 775,472 $ 752,284 $ 301 -7% 265% -27% -27% -32% -8% 12% -3% -3% -11%
Sq. Ft. 2330 2223 2313 2353 2306 2499 7% 8%
2499 sq. ft. compared to 2306 sq. ft. last year. This is a striking change, significantly higher than any previous year, and I believe one can infer from this data point that a greater number of larger homes are beginning to sell in the current market, and they are selling at deeper discounts compared to smaller homes. Increasing numbers of high-end bank owned property sales and short sales may be the root cause of this significant market change. And, this rightly begs the question, “Will the retiring Baby Boom generation find an adequate number of High End buyers for their “McMansions” built during the past 20 years of the housing boom to maintain price stability?” Or, will a tsunami of larger homes flood the market as the Boomers begin the cash out process, leading ultimately to even steeper price declines? Another interesting thing to think about is inventory supply. When looking at the 219 homes currently for sale in Danville and comparing it to the roughly 40 homes that are selling per month, Danville is sitting with about a five month inventory supply. This is within the range of 3-6 months inventory which some experts hold to be a normal market. One might consider this to be a positive sign worth watching as it could be an early indicator of a bottom. On the other hand, the absolute number of sales year on year has slipped by -8% from last year, perhaps due to the termination of the first time homebuyer tax credit which definitely had the market hopping last year. If sales volume continues to slip this will not be a good sign. It’s important to remember that there really is no “average” home and no two homes are exactly alike. If you would like an honest no strings attached opinion of your home’s current market value, please give me a call 925-989-6086 or send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com.
Alamo Single Story
Danville Station 4 Bedroom
Westside Alamo Views
Amazing 4 bedroom, 3 bath, single story with pool. Granite kitchen. $1,199,000
This fabulous home on a large corner lot features hardwood flooring and soaring ceilings. Master with sitting room, walk-in closet $699,000.
This amazing Westside custom 4 bedroom contemporary has amazing views of Mt. Diablo and the Las Trampas Hills. $1,399,000
Danville Executive Home
S. Walnut Creek 3 Bedroom
Danville 4 Bedroom
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IN ND
PE Magnificent 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 1/2 acre lot with a pool and mature landscaping. $1,200,000
This lovely 3 bedroom home is a perfect “10” and includes a pool of its own. $785,000
Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda MLS service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, J. Rockcliff and the MLS service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information. DRE #0144125.
This 4 bedroom Danville home has a huge backyard. Pool, pool house, green house, fruit trees, RV and boat parking. $849,000 J. Rockcliff Realtors 15 Railroad Ave., Danville CA. 94526