POLITICS
in tax from payment shortfalls and wrongly applied tax waiver schemes, according to analysts at the state oil company. And with hefty fines for companies such as South Africa’s MTN and a raft of local banks that have fallen foul of regulations, the government has parked its tanks on the corporate lawn. This test of wills could prove as important for Nigeria’s future as the ground war in the north-east. ● Patrick Smith in Lagos
ZAMBIA
A time for alliances Political parties are scrambling for allies ahead of the August polls
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ew constitutional provisions signed into law in January could make the August national elections a closer race, as both the governing Patriotic Front (PF) and opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) try their hands at forming alliances. The winning candidate in August will need 50% plus one vote now that the first-pastthe-post system has been scrapped. President Edgar Lungu has openly told PF members that the party alone could not marshal the votes for an outright presidential victory. The race is set to pit him against perennial oppositionist Hakainde Hichilema and his UPND. After cementing his leadership of the PF following the succession struggle after the death of Michael Sata in October 2014, Lungu was expected to win this year’s presidential poll easily. But the PF has failed to deliver on many of its promises that attracted new voters to sweep the party into power in September 2011. Since then, the PF government has front-loaded investment in roads, power and railways but now finds itself haunted by its over-expenditure on infrastructure, coupled with the fall in the price of copper. In February, the state closed the top two public universities after students went on the rampage protesting at non-payment of allowances. Other constitutional reforms are adding to political tensions ahead of the polls. Now candidates must choose a running mate. Top PF members like justice minister Ngosa Simbyakula, information minister Chishimba Kambwili, forWhy the Lungu face, Edgar? THE AFRICA REPORT
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eign affairs minister Harry Kalaba and current vice-president Inonge Wina are some of the frontrunners for Lungu’s ticket, but the selection process is likely to create him some enemies. Party unity is already proving problematic for Lungu. Sata’s nephew Miles Sampa resigned from his post of deputy commerce minister in January and was set to focus on his new party, the Democratic Front. Sampa now says that he will remain in the PF, but many of his colleagues doubt his loyalty and say he was aiming to be Lungu’s running mate. The PF has a Bemba ethnic group majority and with Lungu embracing many former Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) members – led by former president Rupiah Banda – there is growing disenchantment among PF founding members, especially those who were close to Sata. The MMD is now divided, with factions led by former televangelist Nevers Mumba, former commerce minister Felix Mutati and former president Banda. After years of strong growth averaging 6% per annum, the Zambian economy is going through headwinds, with a major drought and massive job losses, especially in the mining sector. The UNPD’s Hichilema, a supporter of free markets, largely campaigns on economic management issues but has not fully used current economic woes to prop up his fortunes. Polls show that voters say the wealthy Hichilema lacks the common touch. If the new constitution forces the opposition to unite to challenge Lungu, the president may have won a populist victory with his reforms but also scored an own goal by risking the PF’s political future to do so. ● Christopher Mwambazi in Lusaka
ETHIOPIA
Drought and doubt Is the government prepared for the worst drought in decades?
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hough rains began to fail in early 2015, the alarm bells did not ring in earnest until October. Ethiopia’s government is trying to industrialise this vastly rural country, but the farmers who make up about 80% of the population remain vulnerable to changing weather patterns. Last year, the Pacific Ocean water-warming phenomenon called El Niño led to disappointing rains in many of the country’s eastern areas. By October, widespread crop failure was impossible to ignore. This has been Ethiopia’s worst drought in decades – even worse than the one that catapulted the country into the spotlight as a poster child for aid in 1984. But the Ethiopian government is tired of that story. Its officials prefer to promote the country’s more recent reputation for double-digit economic growth, construction booms and foreign investment. On the other hand, non-governmental organisations and the
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