TRENDING
AHMED RAMADAN/AFP
The re-entrance of the army centre stage has opened the next chapter of Egypt’s transition
Egypt Political conflict shakes the market
Regulators must engage on these rigid rules, particularly when transactions are as small as they often are for rural consumers”
Brotherhood and deposed president Mohamed Morsi. The new order, under the stern control of defence minister General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, which includes a phalanx of technocrats such as prime
Naveed Riaz Chief executive, Citigroup’s Africa division
minister Hazem el-Beblawi, has pledged to follow a roadmap of political reforms culminating in elections next year. For Zin Bekkali, an expert on the region who runs Silk Invest in London, the prospects are for
“difficult but not always happy progress towards democracy”. Egypt’s transition should be measured against similar countries, Bekkali argues: “In Indonesia, it took two years after Suharto was forced from power for the new government to stabilise the political scene and grow the economy.” Egypt’s path will be rougher, but Bekkali insists it is unlikely to descend to the horrors of Algeria’s civil war in 1990s or the rumbling internal conflicts of Pakistan and Lebanon. There are some positive economic signs at the corporate level, Bekkali says. Orascom and Egypt Telecom are doing well, as are the big banks lending to the government. But beyond the short-term spikes, “investors should really be focusing on what Egypt will be doing in five to 10 years’ time […] as a key country of 85 to 90 million people in the Middle East and North Africa”. Senior economist at EFG-Hermes, Mohammad Abu Basha says the bigger banks are earning well: “They are holding lots of government paper,
Inter-country banking is going to continue with the requirement for larger capital reserves. The temptation to use extra capital for investment will be there” ZHENG HUANSONG/AFP
E
conomic uncertainties loom as large as political ones in Egypt after the trauma and turmoil of the clashes in July and August that left more than 1,000 dead, most of them supporters of the Muslim
BENJAMIN BEAVAN/REUTERS
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Jean-Louis Ekra President, AfreximBank THE AFRICA REPORT
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