It’s Prediction Time! OPINION BY JAMES HARLEY
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he off-season in college football is all about analysis. Returning players, rookies and recruits are first scrutinized on paper and film, then realistically on the practice field as the season approaches. Now, with just a few days until kickoff — and with all that observation and analysis under the belt — it’s time to take the next step in the dramatic cycle that is college football and apply the data to the upcoming schedule in the form of predictions.
Currently ranked No. 12 in the major polls, expectations for the Gamecocks are high across the nation. Of course, not so high as having a chance to go undefeated or they would probably be in the top 10. Obviously they are expected to be bowl eligible or they would not be in the top 60. So, sliding between these boundaries, the question becomes, “If the Gamecocks are expected to lose a couple games, exactly who has a chance to beat them?” The first worthy opponent is Georgia, played in Athens in week two. The ‘Dawgs will be coming off of a high-end season opener against Boise State, which should have them focused and operating at full speed. But the fact is that UGA is overrated, as has been the case in several recent years. They are currently riding the wave of hype surrounding sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray, who is living off of the analysis of his potential alone. Stephen Garcia might get a lot of bad press, but he’s the better player in this matchup based on what has actually happened on the field. Look to see a lot of disappointed Bulldogs leaving the stadium at the end of this one. Next on the list is Auburn, which is somewhat the opposite of Georgia in that the team is probably underrated. Analysts have pointed to a huge loss of talent as a major problem, but championship teams tend to be deeper than just the starting line-up. Still, with a home field advantage and (hopefully) a raging desire to avenge their two losses to the Tigers last year, the
Gamecocks should be able to pull this one out — though it will likely be closer than many people expect. If nothing else, the fact that the Gamecocks haven’t beaten them since 1933 should favor USC, since it would be hard to keep losing every game, right? The toughest part of the Gamecocks’ schedule will be the three-game road trip to Mississippi State, Tennessee and Arkansas. Those who have written Tennessee off gained some credibility last week when the Vols’ best player, safety Janzen Jackson, was kicked off the team for yet another drugrelated incident. Suffice it to say it’s another substantial step backwards for a program struggling to re-start itself. Arkansas likewise is suffering from some significant attrition. In addition to losing quarterback Ryan Mallet to the NFL, the Razorbacks’ top running back and Heisman contender Knile Davis is out for the season with an injury. While still capable of defeating USC, this will be a year of revenge and the Gamecocks will emerge victorious. This all sounds great, but in keeping with tradition the Gamecocks will likely choke away a game they should win. Enter Mississippi State. With five straight wins over the Bulldogs and a 6-0 record on the season, this one will be the prime candidate for failure due to a lack of intensity and commitment going in. While not expected to challenge for the SEC West title, No. 20 MSU will field a solid team capable of capitalizing on any of our weaknesses. The final threat is another team that has been prematurely written-off: the Florida Gators. Coming off their worst season in five years, expect them to bounce back to some degree under new head coach Will Muschamp. Of course, “bouncing back” for an 8-5 Florida team is equivalent to a great season for the Gamecocks, and we should not go into this one too cocky. Coming the week after the redeeming win over Arkansas, look for USC to drop this one. Beyond these games, the Gamecocks should have no trouble, though that hasn’t always worked out in the past. Indeed, if we simply beat all the teams that we should it could actually be considered a successful season on at least one level. Let’s hope for a step above that. Keep up with Harley’s Side Line blog at free-times.com and his Side Line column in the weekly edition of Free Times.
rusc VS east carolina: 2011 season opener
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