The Babbler 45 (Jan - Mar) 2013
Pang illustrate the complexity of interpreting climate change and the confounding changes that are likely as a result of changes in other human activities. The water levels and drying rates of trapeang are significant to many species not least the two species of Critically Endangered dry forest ibis. Climate change may well affect the water characteristics of the trapeang, but the effects are likely to be much more complex than a simple calculation of how much evaporation will increase with a given rise in temperature, and how much precipitation
At least for the coming few decades where the effects of climate change are likely to be relatively small compared with current and historical climate variation, the other ongoing anthropogenic derived threats are likely to have much more serious implications for wildlife than any direct or indirect effects of climate change itself. Photo: Jonathan C. Eames
Feature falls. Cloud patterns and aerosols affect evaporation rates and will probably change to some extent, and in some areas of the world where temperature had been increasing, actual evaporation rates had been falling. Wind speed also has a large effect on evaporative loss suggesting future changes in wind pattern might be more significant than temperature increases. The distribution of precipitation through the year may be much more important than the actual measure of total precipitation to dry-season water levels. Furthermore, it is not even clear that variability in climatic factors is the most significant determinant of water level and drying rate of trapeang. Soil drainage, animal wallowing, animal drinking, plant uptake and shading may account for much water loss (retention). Furthermore soil drainage may be directly linked and highly dependent on large mammal activity. It seems possible that changes in large ungulate (both domestic and wild) activity within the dry forests will have equal and probably more profound effects on trapeang than will climate change. Changes in large ungulate populations and distribution are already known to have occurred and further changes are very likely to occur.
one priority, and must take precedence over all other adaptation strategies.
greatly underestimated monetary, time and skill resources. As such scientific monitoring only makes sense where sufficient resources are already available for basic long-term Maintain connectivity area management. In Western Siem Pang, Connectivity is really only an extension of where current conservation resources are the previous strategy. Connectivity can be minimal, protection of the area uncertain, viewed at various scales, and potentially becomes important if climate change results future funding far from guaranteed and future threats enormous, monitoring, other in the ‘need’ for organisms to ‘move’. than basic ‘situational’ monitoring incidental Connectivity is not a factor likely to be important for the majority of Western Siem to other core activities, is not justified and could become a dangerous distraction. Pang biota in the near-future. However, amelioration of several other threats to Western Siem Pang wildlife would benefit Intensively manage threatened biota from connectivity in various forms with Although this measure is not currently other regional forest areas. needed in the context of climate change in Western Siem Pang, a form of intensive management is already operational for three Monitor change species of Critically Endangered vulture. Given uncertainty in climate change and Eventually climate change may threaten biological responses to it, early warning systems are needed where feasible. Climate some dry forest species to the extent that intensive management is needed, but variables will undoubtedly be extensively there is no way to predict such scenarios at monitored by other sectors of society, present. such that diversion of resources to such monitoring is unjustifiable and dangerous in The consequences of climate change in the current critical situation facing regional wildlife conservation. Monitoring biological mainland Southeast Asia are likely to progressively worsen over coming decades, systems for the effects of climate change but the most serious, catastrophic effects is hampered by poor knowledge of which are probably not likely to occur until components are likely to be most affected. Given the uncertainties, potential adaptation Furthermore change itself is not necessarily the latter half of the century or beyond. strategies for the dry forests to future However, a significant number of threatened an indicator of threat level. However many climate change fall within four categories: species face extinction in the next few species threatened by known factors could decades, and many more face significant usefully be monitored in order to establish Maintain ecological integrity and population reduction. But climate change best management practices, based on is not the cause of this threat; wildlife is heterogeneity scientific principles. Monitoring can take declining due to other prevalent threats, many forms, but in general increasing Ecological integrity and heterogeneity usefulness and resolution of results can only and in many cases tangible solutions underpins the resilience of biodiversity exist to combat these threats. However be achieved by increasing resource input to climate change. Protection of the the available resources to enact these into monitoring methods. Well founded biodiversity resources and global solutions are, all too often, too limited scientifically robust results require often conservation priorities is thus the number 6