Summer 2016
Deciding a new Prime Minister By Friday 9th September the Conservative Party will have a new leader, and Britain a new Prime Minister. After a tumultuous week in which the UK voted for Brexit and David Cameron announced his resignation, the Conservative Party has now officially started its race to pick a new leader. The decision lies not just in the hands of Conservative MPs but also the estimated 150,000 Conservative Party members around the country. This is not just picking a leader, it is choosing a Prime Minister, and with that a government that will oversee the next steps in the UK’s journey towards Brexit. This briefing looks at the process for the Conservative Party leadership election and the runners and riders looking to replace David Cameron as Prime Minister.
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Deciding a new Prime Minister Analysis One old adage of politics has clearly come to pass this week – the one who wields the knife never bears the crown. Boris Johnson’s leadership of the Leave campaign was widely viewed as a means of creating a vacancy at Number 10, and so it did. But Boris will not now be the beneficiary, since he ruled himself out on Thursday 30th June, following a collapse in his support among MPs. A variety of factors contributed to his decision. A lack of a clear team, a lack of control over message and the desire of newspapers on the right who led the charge for Brexit to have a candidate they could trust. Rupert Murdoch is said to be backing Michael Gove and we shall wait to see whether the editor of the Daily Mail, Paul Dacre, backs the husband of his star columnist Sarah Vine (Michael Gove) or sticks with his admiration for Mrs May. For the moment Theresa May looks like she has the momentum, great experience, a well-run launch and the backing of a significant number of her colleagues. But that does not change the fact that she was not a Brexiteer, which many people believe to be a prerequisite to leading the party at this juncture. So this weekend will be an almighty scrap amongst the campaign teams to secure the votes of the 330 Conservative MPs for each of the rival candidates. The first ballot of MPs will be held on Tuesday. The expectation at the moment, has to be that the little known Stephen Crabb, or possibly the former Defence Secretary Liam Fox, will have the weakest showing next Tuesday when the votes are cast. For Westminster watchers, the big deal will be the fight between Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom, both leaders of the Brexit vote, as to who will carry that mantle. Michael Gove has a lot of catching up to do but he will have powerful support not just in the media, but most likely among the Cameroons too. Delivering Brexit would surely be the defining issue of a campaign brought on by the unexpected outcome of last week’s referendum but we can see from the campaigns so far that the one nation social justice agenda that was meant to be the guiding light of David Cameron’s second term in office will also feature strongly.
Deciding a new Prime Minister How will the Conservative Party Leadership Election be run? The rules for a Conservative Party leadership election are overseen by the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs and party officials. With nominations now closed for the election, the timetable and process for the contest is: • Nominations closed at noon on Thursday 30th June, with successful candidates being proposed and seconded by fellow MPs in writing. • As more than two candidates put their names forward, there will be consecutive ballots of Conservative MPs, starting on Tuesday 5th July. • The lowest scoring candidate will be eliminated and further ballots held on future Tuesdays and Thursdays until the shortlist has been reduced to two candidates. • The final shortlist of two is then put forward to a postal ballot of around 140,000 Conservative Party members on a “one member one vote” basis. • The result is declared on 9th September. With five candidates nominated, it is likely that the ballot of MPs will go to three rounds unless any candidates pull out of the race earlier. This means that by process of elimination, the final short-list of two candidates will be decided by Tuesday 12th July.
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Timeline
30 June 5 July
Nomina-ons close - five candidates nominated First ballot (Tuesday) of MPs - first candidate eliminated
7 July
Second ballot (Thursday) of MPs for four remaining candidates
12 July
Third ballot (Tuesday) - result leaves final short-list of two candidates
9 Sept
Result of postal vote announced
Who decides? Conservative Party rules, first used for the 2005 leadership election that picked David Cameron, allow for Conservative MPs to decide a short-list of two candidates to be presented to the member. The final short-list is then subject to a postal ballot of Conservative Party members. According to a House of Commons briefing paper in 2015 there are around 150,000 Conservative Party members. What do we know about Conservative Party members?
Research by Tim Bale/Phil Webb, 2013
Deciding a new Prime Minister Runners and Riders Rt. Hon. Theresa May MP (Maidenhead), Home Secretary The longest serving Home Secretary in over 100 years. Prior to her role in the Home Office, she held many prominent positions on the Conservative front bench during Opposition, including in the Departments for Education, Transport, Local Government and Culture Media and Sport. She has also been the Shadow Leader of the House of Commons. She launched her leadership bid on Thursday 30th June writing in the Times that her reasons for running are threefold: the UK now needs strong leadership to
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negotiate the best terms for leaving the EU; to unite the party and the country; and to set out a bold and positive vision for the future of the country. In her launch speech, she dismissed the idea of an election before 2020 and an emergency budget and stated that Article 50 should not be invoked this year. In a strong position, she will be able to wrap herself in the mantle of Mrs Thatcher however her extremely lukewarm support for the Remain campaign whilst not supporting Brexit may damage her chances. A little on the shy side, and a little austere, she has never been popular with her colleagues who might think she would be good at negotiating with the other members of the EU but bad for winning elections here at home. Nominated by: Rt. Hon. Chris Grayling MP, Leader of the House of Commons Seconded by: Rt. Hon. Justine Greening MP, International Development Secretary Known supporters: Rt. Hon. Justine Greening MP, Rt. Hon. Chris Grayling, Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP, Sarah Wollaston MP, and Gavin Williamson MP Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Surrey Heath), Justice Secretary The Justice Secretary announced his surprise candidacy after it was reported he would be supporting Boris Johnson MP. He has been an MP since 2005 and has served on the Conservative front benches since then. He was Secretary of State for Education before being Chief Whip. Before standing for Parliament, he worked in journalism. The Justice Secretary will run on a platform that is committed to leaving the EU, control of immigration and public spending. Michael Gove is a long standing friend of the current Prime Minister and Chancellor, who may want to help him behind the scenes even though they were disappointed by his support for Brexit. He won many friends in the party with his tough determination to improve state education despite the opposition. He is popular among colleagues for his geniality and politeness but will have to explain what has changed given that he has put on the record many times that he does not want to be Prime Minister. Nominated by: Rt. Hon. Nicky Morgan MP, Education Secretary Seconded by: Dominic Raab MP, Justice Minister Since Gove’s announcement, supporters have been leaving Johnson’s camp. Known supporters: Nick Boles MP is heading Gove’s campaign and supporters include Ed Vaizey MP and Michael Fabricant MP Rt. Hon. Stephen Crabb MP (Preseli Pembrokeshire), Work & Pensions Secretary One of the rising stars of the modernising wing of the Conservative Party, Crabb replaced Iain Duncan Smith as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in 2016. He has been an MP since 2005 and was the Secretary of State for Wales between 2014 and 2016, after having served in the Whips’ office. Crabb campaigned to remain in the EU. He is thought to be able to appeal beyond the Conservative base; Craig Williams MP for Cardiff North said he is the “embodiment of one nation Conservatism”. He has a strong relationship with fellow rising star, and Conservative Scottish Leader, Ruth Davidson, both of whom have spoken about the need to reach out to new social groups of supporters. He announced his candidacy in an opinion piece for the Telegraph on 29th June and is running on a “blue-collar” joint ticket with the current Business Secretary, Rt. Hon. Sajid Javid MP (Bromsgrove) who would become Chancellor if Crabb won the contest. Javid, a former banker, is an arch-Thatcherite and Eurosceptic. He may have irritated members of the Parliamentary party for siding with the Remain campaign during the referendum.
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Making his pitch as the boy from the council estate, alongside Javid, the son of an immigrant from Pakistan, will have less traction now that all of the competitors for the Tory crown have ordinary backgrounds. His limited experience and his low profile will count against him given the seriousness of the times but he does present well in the media. Nominated by: Rt. Hon. Sajid Javid MP, Business Secretary Seconded by: Chloe Smith MP Known supporters: John Glen MP, David Morris MP, Johnny Mercer MP, and David Rutley MP Rt. Hon. Dr. Liam Fox MP (North Somerset), backbencher Fox is a former Secretary of State for Defence (2010-2011). During the Conservatives’ time in Opposition, he held briefs in Defence, Foreign Affairs and Health. Under John Major, he served in the Government’s Whips’ office. Before entering Parliament, he was a GP and a Civilian Army Medical Officer. Fox stood for the party leadership in 2005, but did not make it onto the members’ ballots, coming third in the ballot amongst Conservative MPs. He supported the Brexit campaign and has long opposed the Lisbon Treaty but retained a more conciliatory tone than some of his fellow Leave campaigners throughout the highly divisive campaign. Fox laid out his platform for leadership in an interview with LBC and said his campaign would be based on his passion for the health service, defence policy and exiting the EU. In the interview, he spoke about his upbringing on a Scottish council estate and comprehensive education, which he is likely to draw upon during the contest. As a Brexiteer who spoke about unity after the vote, Dr Fox will command a loyal, but possibly smaller following in the parliamentary party. He is likely to be squeezed by Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom as the Brexit candidate but where he chooses to take his supporters in the end could have a decisive influence on the chosen candidate. Nominated by: Robert Goodwill MP, Transport Minister Seconded by: Scott Mann MP Known supporters: James Gray MP and Robert Goodwill MP. The Telegraph reports that sources believe Fox could receive the support of 30 right wing MPs. This would have significant weight if he decides to back one of the main contenders. Andrea Leadsom MP (South Northamptonshire), Minister of State for Energy Leadsom has been an MP since 2010. She is currently a Minister at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, having previously served in the Treasury and has a background in the financial sector. She was considered a strong voice for the Leave campaign throughout the campaign. There are concerns among some Brexit supporters that free movement of people will not end after EU exit strategy negotiations and that Leadsom would commit to ending free movement as a key policy. Although her inexperience will stand against her, Andrea Leadsom’s accomplished performance and enthusiastic pitch for a Brexit vote on national media during the campaign will have won her many supporters. Determined and ambitious, she stands an outside chance of gaining the support to beat Michael Gove into the final ballot of the two candidates who will be put forward to the membership for final selection. Nominated by: Penny Mordaunt MP, Defence Minister Seconded by: William Wragg MP Known supporters: Tom Pursglove MP and Tim Loughton MP
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For more information, contact Andrew Pakes: 07980 551212 / Andrew@tetra-strategy.co.uk
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