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Teles intelligence

micro market report south bay MARCH 2012 | SINGLE FAMILY HOMES REPORT


March 2012

Ask The Right Questions

Conventional wisdom tells us to always ask “why?” Why do we do it that

Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence

way? Why does it work like that? Why should I listen to her? Why are you reminding me to ask why? Why?   Generally, when presented with any kind of trend, we have also been taught to think in a similar way and ask why we are seeing that trend? For example, our analysts found a study that discussed the median price of home sales and its upward trend. The report also answered the “why” and did a detailed job of  answering why there was an upward trend. For the same period, we also found a study that showed the median price of home sales and a downward trend, and similarly the report accurately analyzed “why” there was a downward trend. We asked “why” and got good answers - but can both reports be correct?   Both reports were in fact accurate. We realized quickly that the question we should be asking first, specifically regarding trends, is not “why” but “what”. We are arguing about the value of first asking “what” the trend is really about versus accepting the trend for what it is and only being curious about “why” it is that way.


In the provided, one report found that across the United States, the median price of  new home sales showed an upward trend while the other report actually referred to median price of  existing home sales drifting downward. Big difference. Now lets ask why. The house price gap between distressed and non-distressed properties continues to widen, especially since distressed sales constitute approximately 30% of home sales. Specifically in California, 35% of homeowners are not only underwater on their mortgage but also near negative equity (those with 5% equity or less).   In hindsight, it makes sense. We should first understand what we are looking at and only then try to understand why it is that way. What do you think?

All the Best!

S harr an S ri vats aa


Reading the Report

“Each Micro Market area contains an analysis of current conditions and past trends. In order to take the most away from this report, it is important to understand how to read each micro market.

The Data presents statistical information about past and current conditions, comparing the previous year’s month to the current month. Each statistic is compiled from sales data during the month of the respective year. It is then analyzed by Percent Change, which is calculated by taking Current Value minus Past Value and then divided by Past Value.

The Numbers is a compilation of important take-away statistics for each area to gain a quick understanding of market conditions. Median Sales Price and Days on Market are 12 month averages for the period ending in the current month. The values for Properties for Sale and Shadow Inventory are presented in both text and graphical form to show the relationship of Shadow to Active Inventory.

The Yearly Trend presents the Median Sales Prices for each month during the past year in graphical format to easily visualize the changes and help identify any trends in sales for that micro market.


Median Price:

Days of Market (Pending Sale):

A value that separates the upper half

The number of days that properties

of prices from the lower half of prices.

currently in escrow were on the market.

It can be interpreted like an average, however the extreme prices (high and

Month’s Supply of Inventory:

low) don’t hold undue influence.

The number of months it would take to sell all the properties listed for sale at

Average Price per Square Foot:

the current pace of sales and if no new

The price of each property divided by

listings entered the market.

their respective square footage then averaged across all properties sold in

Percent Under Contract:

the area for a given time period.

The ratio of properties for sale to properties pending sale.

Properties Sold:

The number of property transactions

Average Median Price for Last 12:

that closed and transferred ownership.

The Average Median Price for the Last 12 Months is sales data from 12 months

Properties Pending Sale:

ending in the identified month

The number of properties that entered escrow in preparation for sale.

Shadow Inventory:

Properties in Pre-Foreclosure, Bank Properties For Sale:

Owned or Auction as identified by

The number of properties on the

ForeclosureRadar.com

market and seeking buyers.


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south bay

los angeles

South Bay Macro Market

Palos Verdes

Redondo Beach

Manhattan Beach

Rancho Palos Verdes

Rolling Hills

Micro Market Report : March 2012


telesintelligence.com

orange san county gabriel Rolling Hills Estates

Torrance

San Pedro

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


South Bay Macro Market DATA *

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$1,306,833

$730,125

-44.1%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$427

$365

-14.5%

Properties Sold .......................................................

150

177

18.0%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

171

282

64.9%

Properties For Sale ................................................

1006

824

-18.1%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

109

77

-29.2%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

6.7

4.7

-30.6%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

17.0%

34.2%

101.3%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$1,078,500

$1,218,826

11.5%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar for all areas in South Bay Mirco Market Report. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

$730

S A L E S

$1.306

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com


Manhattan Beach DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$1,522,500

$1,351,000

-11.3%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$597

$652

9.2%

Properties Sold .......................................................

32

30

-6.3%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

33

44

33.3%

Properties For Sale ................................................

168

115

-31.5%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

72

47

-34.7%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

5.3

3.8

-27.0%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

19.6%

38.3%

94.8%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$1,516,000

$1,487,673

-1.9%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

$1.351

S A L E S

$1.522

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$1,487,673

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

115

DAYS ON MARKET**

79

SHADOW INVENTORY

28

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Palos Verdes DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$1,845,000

$892,500

-51.6%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$567

$411

-27.5%

Properties Sold .......................................................

16

28

75.0%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

16

50

212.5%

Properties For Sale ................................................

108

170

57.4%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

117

92

-21.4%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

6.8

6.1

-10.1%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

14.8%

29.4%

98.5%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$977,000

$1,345,182

27.4%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

$2.346

MAR

$2.226

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

M E D I A N

S A L E S

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$1,345,182

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

170

DAYS ON MARKET**

101

SHADOW INVENTORY

28

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Rancho Palos Verdes DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$1,065,000

$910,000

-14.6%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$460

$409

-11.1%

Properties Sold .......................................................

21

23

9.5%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

25

43

72.0%

Properties For Sale ................................................

181

137

-24.3%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

95

76

-20.0%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

8.6

6.0

-30.9%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

13.8%

31.4%

127.2%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$949,000

$943,273

-0.6%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

$910

S A L E S

$1.065

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$943,272

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

137

DAYS ON MARKET**

102

SHADOW INVENTORY

63

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Redondo Beach DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$793,250

$741,000

-6.6%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$449

$394

-12.2%

Properties Sold .......................................................

26

25

-3.8%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

21

33

57.1%

Properties For Sale ................................................

137

96

-29.9%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

67

78

16.4%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

5.3

3.8

-27.1%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

15.3%

34.4%

124.3%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$723,000

$716,816

-0.9%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

S A L E S

$741

(in hundred thousands)

$793

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$716,816

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

96

DAYS ON MARKET**

74

SHADOW INVENTORY

76

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Rolling Hil s DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$3,950,000

$0

N/A

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$555

$0

N/A

Properties Sold .......................................................

2

0

N/A

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

1

4

300.0%

Properties For Sale ................................................

21

18

-14.3%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

389

181

-53.5%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

10.5

N/A

N/A

Percent Under Contract ........................................

4.8%

22.2%

366.7%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$2,280,000

$3,114,000

26.8%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

S A L E S

$0

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

M E D I A N

$3.950

MAR

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$2,395,385

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

18

DAYS ON MARKET**

158

SHADOW INVENTORY

15

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Rolling Hil s Estates DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$1,570,000

$937,500

-40.3%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$519

$422

-18.7%

Properties Sold .......................................................

1

10

900.0%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

4

9

125.0%

Properties For Sale ................................................

31

33

6.5%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

70

89

27.1%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

31.0

3.3

-89.4%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

12.9%

27.3%

111.4%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$1,127,000

$1,186,427

5.0%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

$937

S A L E S

$1.570

(in hundred thousands)

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$1,186,427

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

33

DAYS ON MARKET**

81

SHADOW INVENTORY

9

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


San Pedro DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$496,000

$450,000

-9.3%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$338

$298

-11.8%

Properties Sold .......................................................

16

28

75.0%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

28

34

21.4%

Properties For Sale ................................................

167

106

-36.5%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

110

87

-20.9%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

10.4

3.8

-63.7%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

16.8%

32.1%

91.3%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$469,000

$426,831

-9.9%

*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

S A L E S

$450

(in hundred thousands)

$496

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$426,831

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

106

DAYS ON MARKET**

92

SHADOW INVENTORY

130

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


Torrance DATA

MAR 2011

MAR 2012

% CHANGE

Median Price ..........................................................

$519,750

$559,000

7.6%

Average Price per Square Foot ...........................

$361

$336

-6.9%

Properties Sold .......................................................

36

33

-8.3%

Properties Pending Sale .......................................

43

65

51.2%

Properties For Sale ................................................

193

149

-22.8%

Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................

59

43

-27.1%

Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................

5.4

4.5

-15.8%

Percent Under Contract ........................................

22.3%

43.6%

95.8%

Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........

$587,000

$530,404

-10.7%

Average Median Price for Last 3 Months .......... *Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.

M E D I A N

S A L E S

(in hundred thousands)

$559

$519

P R I C E

yearly trend

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Micro Market Report : March 2012

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR


telesintelligence.com

the numbers median sales price**

$530,404

PROPERTIES FOR SALE

149

DAYS ON MARKET**

67

SHADOW INVENTORY

283

**12 month average

acti v e listin g s

s h ad o w in v ent o r y

Teles intelligence where data meets reason

March 2012 : Micro Market Report


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References

CONTACTS:

Laron Turley Director of Research, Teles Intelligence laron.turley@telesproperties.com Steve Shull Chief Strategist, Teles Intelligence steve.shull@telesproperties.com Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence sharran.srivatsaa@telesproperties.com

location:

Teles Intelligence 11990 San Vicente Blvd, Suite 100 Los Angeles, Ca 90049

Phone:

424.203.1800 email:

info@telesintelligence.com


Teles intelligence MARCH 2012 | LOS ANGELES | ORANGE COUNTY | SAN GABRIEL | SOUTH BAY Š2012 Teles Properties, Inc. Teles Properties is a registered trademark.

South Bay Micro Market Report : March 2012  

The report is in response to our observation that the media’s focus, headlines, and articles revolve around housing data at a macro level an...