Teles intelligence
micro market report south bay MARCH 2012 | SINGLE FAMILY HOMES REPORT
March 2012
Ask The Right Questions
Conventional wisdom tells us to always ask “why?” Why do we do it that
Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence
way? Why does it work like that? Why should I listen to her? Why are you reminding me to ask why? Why? Generally, when presented with any kind of trend, we have also been taught to think in a similar way and ask why we are seeing that trend? For example, our analysts found a study that discussed the median price of home sales and its upward trend. The report also answered the “why” and did a detailed job of answering why there was an upward trend. For the same period, we also found a study that showed the median price of home sales and a downward trend, and similarly the report accurately analyzed “why” there was a downward trend. We asked “why” and got good answers - but can both reports be correct? Both reports were in fact accurate. We realized quickly that the question we should be asking first, specifically regarding trends, is not “why” but “what”. We are arguing about the value of first asking “what” the trend is really about versus accepting the trend for what it is and only being curious about “why” it is that way.
In the provided, one report found that across the United States, the median price of new home sales showed an upward trend while the other report actually referred to median price of existing home sales drifting downward. Big difference. Now lets ask why. The house price gap between distressed and non-distressed properties continues to widen, especially since distressed sales constitute approximately 30% of home sales. Specifically in California, 35% of homeowners are not only underwater on their mortgage but also near negative equity (those with 5% equity or less). In hindsight, it makes sense. We should first understand what we are looking at and only then try to understand why it is that way. What do you think?
All the Best!
S harr an S ri vats aa
Reading the Report
“Each Micro Market area contains an analysis of current conditions and past trends. In order to take the most away from this report, it is important to understand how to read each micro market.
The Data presents statistical information about past and current conditions, comparing the previous year’s month to the current month. Each statistic is compiled from sales data during the month of the respective year. It is then analyzed by Percent Change, which is calculated by taking Current Value minus Past Value and then divided by Past Value.
The Numbers is a compilation of important take-away statistics for each area to gain a quick understanding of market conditions. Median Sales Price and Days on Market are 12 month averages for the period ending in the current month. The values for Properties for Sale and Shadow Inventory are presented in both text and graphical form to show the relationship of Shadow to Active Inventory.
The Yearly Trend presents the Median Sales Prices for each month during the past year in graphical format to easily visualize the changes and help identify any trends in sales for that micro market.
Median Price:
Days of Market (Pending Sale):
A value that separates the upper half
The number of days that properties
of prices from the lower half of prices.
currently in escrow were on the market.
It can be interpreted like an average, however the extreme prices (high and
Month’s Supply of Inventory:
low) don’t hold undue influence.
The number of months it would take to sell all the properties listed for sale at
Average Price per Square Foot:
the current pace of sales and if no new
The price of each property divided by
listings entered the market.
their respective square footage then averaged across all properties sold in
Percent Under Contract:
the area for a given time period.
The ratio of properties for sale to properties pending sale.
Properties Sold:
The number of property transactions
Average Median Price for Last 12:
that closed and transferred ownership.
The Average Median Price for the Last 12 Months is sales data from 12 months
Properties Pending Sale:
ending in the identified month
The number of properties that entered escrow in preparation for sale.
Shadow Inventory:
Properties in Pre-Foreclosure, Bank Properties For Sale:
Owned or Auction as identified by
The number of properties on the
ForeclosureRadar.com
market and seeking buyers.
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south bay
los angeles
South Bay Macro Market
Palos Verdes
Redondo Beach
Manhattan Beach
Rancho Palos Verdes
Rolling Hills
Micro Market Report : March 2012
telesintelligence.com
orange san county gabriel Rolling Hills Estates
Torrance
San Pedro
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
South Bay Macro Market DATA *
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,306,833
$730,125
-44.1%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$427
$365
-14.5%
Properties Sold .......................................................
150
177
18.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
171
282
64.9%
Properties For Sale ................................................
1006
824
-18.1%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
109
77
-29.2%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
6.7
4.7
-30.6%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
17.0%
34.2%
101.3%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$1,078,500
$1,218,826
11.5%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar for all areas in South Bay Mirco Market Report. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$730
S A L E S
$1.306
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
Manhattan Beach DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,522,500
$1,351,000
-11.3%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$597
$652
9.2%
Properties Sold .......................................................
32
30
-6.3%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
33
44
33.3%
Properties For Sale ................................................
168
115
-31.5%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
72
47
-34.7%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
5.3
3.8
-27.0%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
19.6%
38.3%
94.8%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$1,516,000
$1,487,673
-1.9%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$1.351
S A L E S
$1.522
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$1,487,673
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
115
DAYS ON MARKET**
79
SHADOW INVENTORY
28
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Palos Verdes DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,845,000
$892,500
-51.6%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$567
$411
-27.5%
Properties Sold .......................................................
16
28
75.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
16
50
212.5%
Properties For Sale ................................................
108
170
57.4%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
117
92
-21.4%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
6.8
6.1
-10.1%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
14.8%
29.4%
98.5%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$977,000
$1,345,182
27.4%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
$2.346
MAR
$2.226
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
M E D I A N
S A L E S
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$1,345,182
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
170
DAYS ON MARKET**
101
SHADOW INVENTORY
28
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Rancho Palos Verdes DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,065,000
$910,000
-14.6%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$460
$409
-11.1%
Properties Sold .......................................................
21
23
9.5%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
25
43
72.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
181
137
-24.3%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
95
76
-20.0%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
8.6
6.0
-30.9%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
13.8%
31.4%
127.2%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$949,000
$943,273
-0.6%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$910
S A L E S
$1.065
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$943,272
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
137
DAYS ON MARKET**
102
SHADOW INVENTORY
63
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Redondo Beach DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$793,250
$741,000
-6.6%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$449
$394
-12.2%
Properties Sold .......................................................
26
25
-3.8%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
21
33
57.1%
Properties For Sale ................................................
137
96
-29.9%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
67
78
16.4%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
5.3
3.8
-27.1%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
15.3%
34.4%
124.3%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$723,000
$716,816
-0.9%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
$741
(in hundred thousands)
$793
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$716,816
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
96
DAYS ON MARKET**
74
SHADOW INVENTORY
76
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Rolling Hil s DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$3,950,000
$0
N/A
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$555
$0
N/A
Properties Sold .......................................................
2
0
N/A
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
1
4
300.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
21
18
-14.3%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
389
181
-53.5%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
10.5
N/A
N/A
Percent Under Contract ........................................
4.8%
22.2%
366.7%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$2,280,000
$3,114,000
26.8%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
S A L E S
$0
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
M E D I A N
$3.950
MAR
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$2,395,385
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
18
DAYS ON MARKET**
158
SHADOW INVENTORY
15
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Rolling Hil s Estates DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,570,000
$937,500
-40.3%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$519
$422
-18.7%
Properties Sold .......................................................
1
10
900.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
4
9
125.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
31
33
6.5%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
70
89
27.1%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
31.0
3.3
-89.4%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
12.9%
27.3%
111.4%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$1,127,000
$1,186,427
5.0%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$937
S A L E S
$1.570
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$1,186,427
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
33
DAYS ON MARKET**
81
SHADOW INVENTORY
9
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
San Pedro DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$496,000
$450,000
-9.3%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$338
$298
-11.8%
Properties Sold .......................................................
16
28
75.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
28
34
21.4%
Properties For Sale ................................................
167
106
-36.5%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
110
87
-20.9%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
10.4
3.8
-63.7%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
16.8%
32.1%
91.3%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$469,000
$426,831
-9.9%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
$450
(in hundred thousands)
$496
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$426,831
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
106
DAYS ON MARKET**
92
SHADOW INVENTORY
130
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Torrance DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$519,750
$559,000
7.6%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$361
$336
-6.9%
Properties Sold .......................................................
36
33
-8.3%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
43
65
51.2%
Properties For Sale ................................................
193
149
-22.8%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
59
43
-27.1%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
5.4
4.5
-15.8%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
22.3%
43.6%
95.8%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$587,000
$530,404
-10.7%
Average Median Price for Last 3 Months .......... *Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
(in hundred thousands)
$559
$519
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$530,404
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
149
DAYS ON MARKET**
67
SHADOW INVENTORY
283
**12 month average
acti v e listin g s
s h ad o w in v ent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
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References
CONTACTS:
Laron Turley Director of Research, Teles Intelligence laron.turley@telesproperties.com Steve Shull Chief Strategist, Teles Intelligence steve.shull@telesproperties.com Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence sharran.srivatsaa@telesproperties.com
location:
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Phone:
424.203.1800 email:
info@telesintelligence.com
Teles intelligence MARCH 2012 | LOS ANGELES | ORANGE COUNTY | SAN GABRIEL | SOUTH BAY Š2012 Teles Properties, Inc. Teles Properties is a registered trademark.