expert column
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR WORDS: TERRY WOHLERS
F
orecasts are easy to offer but incredibly difficult to make accurately. This is especially true when attempting to predict far into the future. Thoughts on what might occur in the current or following year are more plausible. Recent developments and trends typically signal what is in our near-term future. Even so, their impact is almost never like flipping a switch. Most require many years to unfold and mature to commercialisation. Organisations are placing more importance on the carbon-footprint impact of AM and this will become even more evident this year. Many will find that sustainable products are less costly to produce due to the use of less material and improved energy savings during production. The approach becomes even more attractive when considering the energy savings of transportation products, such as aircraft. Design for additive manufacturing (DfAM), such as consolidating many parts into one, will contribute by reducing manufacturing processes, assembly, and inventory. For 15 years, experts have stated that AM for series production in the automotive industry would take off in 4-5 years. It did not occur. Now, we are seeing chassis, suspension, brakes, and other major subsystems being produced for high-end cars from Aston Martin, Ferrari, MercedesAMG, and others. This could be the year when auto companies invest in AM in ways they have not in the past. Divergent Technologies is leading some of this work and paving the way for mainstream (i.e., more affordable) cars and trucks, which will take several more years to develop. Developments in materials will drive new applications. This is especially true as government entities and other organisations qualify them for military and commercial applications. Special metal alloys will create new streams of revenue for their producers and others in the value chain. The architecture and construction industry continues to explore ways to put AM to work. Some examples are interesting, but many are not. Even so, companies are beginning to determine when and where AM produces real value. Until concrete is replaced by better and greener materials,
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coupled with strong business cases in support of additive construction, much of the value will come from improved aesthetics and architectural creativity. A growing number of companies will consider how they can create and store inventories digitally and then manufacture on-demand. These platforms will help support semi-custom design and spare part manufacturing. Relatively few will succeed in putting it into practice this year due to upfront costs and ROI uncertainty. Companies in aerospace, healthcare, and oil/gas continue to be challenged by the qualification and certification requirements tied to the design and production of parts by AM. Some advanced designs, such as those with internal lattice structures, can make inspection extraordinarily timeconsuming and expensive. This makes it difficult to take full advantage of what AM has to offer.
Terry Wohlers is head of advisory services and market intelligence at Wohlers Associates, powered by ASTM International. For 37 years, Wohlers Associates has helped organisations around the world take advantage of technologies and strategies that enhance rapid product development and manufacturing. Wohlers Associates is publisher of the Wohlers Report, the undisputed industry-leading report on additive manufacturing and 3D printing worldwide for 28 consecutive years. Visit: www.astm.org
Directed energy deposition (DED) is gaining traction and it will become even more apparent this year. The use of mature subsystems and technology from the robotics and welding industries is a big reason why, making it easier to develop a commercial system. What’s more, organisations have a genuine need for systems that build large parts, especially in metal, and DED is well suited for the task. It is interesting to see new and developing applications of AM. Among them are the 3D printing of medicine, living tissue, fashion designs, and furniture. They show the impressive breadth and promise of AM beyond common industrial applications. None will “move the needle” in 2024, but they are important to watch. They could trigger new ideas that may lead to something big in the future.
“Developments in materials will drive new applications.”