1982.07.TARPA_TOPICS

Page 13

You will observe the general trend in the first half of the period, 14 years 1955 through 1968, was one of increasing Starting at $83.33, it exhibited a fairly steady climb income. ending at $170.66. This is slightly over double the initial income. Total income for the 14 years was $18,800.52. This is the same total as would have been received if the initial $83.33 per month had been increased at a constant annual compound rate of 3.8491% throughout the 14 years. In the second half, 13 years 1969 through 1982, there were large fluctuations in income. Starting at $171.36, the monthly income ranged from a low of $90.38 to a high of $208.21, ending at $183.96. Total income for the 13 years was $24,001.47. This is the same total as would have been received if the initial $171.36 per month had been decreased at a constant annual compound rate of 1.5516% throughout the 13 years. Over the entire 27 years, total income was $42,801.99. This is the same total as would have been received if the initial $83.33 per month had been increased at a constant annual compound rate of 3.134% throughout the 27 years. On Chart #2, the solid line on the graph traces the actual year-end Unit values for the 27 years December 31, 1954 to December 31, 1981. The dotted lines trace the "mean effectrate of change in Unit value" which produced the actual ive total income received in: (a) the first 14 years; (b) the last 13 years; (c) the entire 27 years. In terms of "mean effective annual rate of return on investment", our experience has been: (a) (b) (c)

1955 through 1968, 6.9646% 1969 through 1981, 1.4030% 1955 through 1981, 6.2280%

Our 27 years experience thus far is less than half what will be the total period a pilot can expect to be participating in Eventually it will span about 60 years of his lifethe plan. time - about 35 to 40 years as an active pilot, followed by 20 to 25 years (possibly longer) as a retiree. Make no mistake, this is a long term program in which you have every reason to maintain a deep and abiding interest. Unlike the games in the casino here where you can drop out at will when you are ahead, or leave the game for a time when your luck is waning, you are in this game from start to finish. The full amount of your accumulated Company contributions are riding on the next roll of the dice. You have limited options on Member contributions (if any) prior to, but not after retirement. (continued) - 11 -


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