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School of Jazz ​well the TEDx conferences I think are a lot like speed-dating there's basically no subject worth knowing that you can possibly understand in 18 minutes so I decided that I was going to give 9 minutes to two subjects so a better speed-dating model I think so both of the things that I'm going to talk about today are rooted in physics since we're starting out in physics I might as well tell you a comment made by Ernest Rutherford guaranteed to offend everybody it hangs prominently in the Yale Physics Department which is in science there is only physics everything else is stamp collecting so predictable catastrophes is rooted in a subject now called econo physics basically it's the idea that the worst catastrophes especially the human-made ones which are most pertinent to us now are the most predictable but in fact everybody ignores it and then the subject of quantum biology or or in particular quantum diseases is a longer term concept it's something that I think will evolve over the next 20 years and will dramatically change the way we understand how biology operates and in particular how medicine operates so let's get going this is a famous scene of Tyrone Power on the left in the great movie the Black Swan now some of you may know of Nassim Taleb 'he's really really excellent book entitled the Black Swan basically it talks about how financial catastrophes occur and people are very rarely prepared for them he took an approach to investing which is basically the following you hemorrhage a tiny tiny little bit of money every year to buy insurance against a gigantic collapse and then finally after you've hemorrhaged enough if you've done the math properly if the statistics work out as you predict they're going to work you make a gigantic Bund of money and he actually did run a hedge fund and work with a bunch of other hedge funds taking that approach on the left is the Black Swan the famous pirate on the right the good guy of course the financial system which is now on the ropes but there's a very interesting subtlety here which Talib himself understands and that is the fact that Black Swan events rare events that occur not too commonly but are very big have a particular characteristic that makes them very difficult to predict but then at the other extreme there are actually much worse events true gigantic catastrophes and those gigantic high tech catastrophes are actually easier to predict here is an analogy up on the screen I happen to draw it from the demographics of cities but I could have given an almost identical diagram that comes from essentially every domain in the natural world and especially in the human world if you look at the pale square dots you'll see that they form a line the story that's being told by that straight line is actually very simple it says that the frequency of events is inversely proportionate to how large they are really big events occur rarely much smaller events occur much more commonly and if you scale the axes properly it turns out to be a perfect straight line with with more than 99% level of correlation it's a very very strong law but it turns out that if you look at the extreme tail a very very large event and that's the red spot up all the way up at the top it falls off the line this particular example is the scaling of cities in France following an almost perfect straight line with the sole exception of Paris now what does that story tell you it tells you that very frequently the most Fortin events are not outliers that are the exception to the rule but actually are the dominant events that drive the world now we have just lived part way through such an example in the financial world and it turns out that this particular financial catastrophe left a footprint of predictability well in advance of its occurrence so you can ask yourself two questions if it was so predictable why didn't people predict it and second what would happen is it possible to quote save the world if you could have essentially everybody know this and take action on it well here are the two answers one is it is in the nature of human beings psychologically evolutionarily the many theories about this to discount a high level of risk and to replace it with unwarranted optimism and therefore people do not take seriously predictions of catastrophe until it's too late now of course that's not always true but if you think back with a somewhat jaundiced eye to the history of humankind think about the wars and the terrible events that have occurred and how much ink is spilled afterwards explaining how the events occurred and how they could have been prevented and the rarity with which really catastrophic events in human affairs are averted you can begin to understand how difficult it is to take action significant action on what is in fact as it turns out mathematically a much more predictable set of events which often are the largest and worst so now let's ask the question what if everybody did in fact take action for example in the recent financial crisis what if governments all over the world as well as individuals were to have acted in concert to prevent the occurrence of such a catastrophic event the short answer is under those circumstances nobody would have been able to avert it and the reason is that these extreme events think about the growth of a city like Paris come from what is known as a hurting effect it's the consequence of positive feedback it's what's known in real estate as location location location mcDonald's builds in a particular spot and that doesn't actually cause competitors to go elsewhere it
induces competitors to go to the same place and you begin to develop an urban cluster which in turn has a positive effect on the development of more clustering and the same thing occurs in the attempt in a watt any widespread attempt to prevent a catastrophic occurrence in the financial markets when enough people begin to believe that a catastrophic event is going to occur and start taking action as a herd of any sort they actually build in the kind of mechanisms that lead to a bubble and ultimately to a crash so this is an extremely difficult and intractable problem except for the fact that some people can save themselves I understand that that's not the title of the conference conference is entitled who then is going to save their own skins however that is part of the reality these events I leave this image for you to think of can be titled Dragon Kings as opposed to black swans black swans exist at the end of a continuum of a kind of straight line very law obeying are very difficult to predict whereas Dragon Kings are the real dominating events in human society and predictable though they may be people do not take action on them the worst catastrophes are the most predictable but they never actually are acted upon those predictions are not acted upon next subject number two this little dance up here is a mattock picture it's just uh it's not actually anything genuine but it's a it's a it's a representation of very very tiny proteins folding these protists protein schematically in particular is a kind of protein called a prion or a prion once these were thought of as protein fragments and then it was understood that something very bizarre was happening with them which is these little protein fragments actually were capable of replicating themselves now that's a very it's a simple statement it has very very deep implications because the whole development of modern biology especially into the era of DNA and the understanding of the mechanisms whereby DNA replicates and whereby DNA serves as a blueprint for a living cell has a deep history both in theoretical computation as well as simply in the idea that here is the fundamental mechanism where replications self replication and the spreading of living systems can occur and must occur what I really said there is that you have research into the actual physical structure of DNA and then you have theoretical notions that go back to john von neumann about what would be necessary for a living system and he before DNA was even discovered on theoretical grounds came up with the argument that for living systems to reproduce themselves they would have to be a a kind of carrier structure which was the living thing itself and then it would have to carry a blueprint of itself internally and ultimately when DNA was discovered of course it turned out that he was remarkably correct as he was about so many other things the shocking things about thing about prions is that these little protein fragments carry no nucleic acid of any sort there they are simply proteins I mean they're small enough so that we're on the almost of being able to visualize them atom-by-atom so they're not quite visible to the naked eye they're smaller than that of course but they're incredibly one would think simple structures and yet they replicate themselves if you look at what happens when a protein here is a example of a protein if you look at what happens when a protein goes from a kind of stretched out ribbon which is we don't visualize it that way but if you learn about what a protein is you learn of course as I'm sure you all know that it's it's it's a it's a backbone of a certain kind of chemical and then you have these amino acids hanging off that backbone and it's the sequence of amino acids that constitutes the protein however the reality is that the most subtle structures and biological functions of proteins occur when this ribbon folds into a biologically active form that biologically active form is the most condensed version I'm speaking very loosely here low inert lowest energy state but think of it as condensed it's the it's the most condensed version out of trillions of possible folding configurations proteins get into that state like that I mean it may take a minute or two for especially large proteins but according to any standard information theory notions or con fear ease of computation many of the most important biologically active proteins in our own bodies should take hundreds and hundreds of years to find that low energy configuration and yet they do it in us I mean lightning quickly light life itself would absolutely not be possible were it not for this astounding capacity that proteins seem to have to seek out this lowest energy conformation how do they do it if that has been one of the biggest mysteries in biochemistry I would say up until recently when it began to be understood that they depended upon quantum mechanical I'm not going to go into the details of what constitute all the different quantum mechanical effects but here's a simple way of thinking about it entire atoms hydrogen atoms in particular can instantaneously vanish at one point in the backbone reappear elsewhere and they that process of transmission from one spot to another can occur concurrently as though in multiple universes a phrase that you've probably heard before and so the energy space is searched out using this astounding magical process and amongst all the different configurations that are being sampled essentially instantaneously the lowest one is therefore picked out prions because they're so small have a much more dominating role for these quantum effects and it turns out that prions which you may know of because it the cause of bovine spongiform encephalopathy mad cow disease it's also been learned that they are absolutely essential to the normal functioning of neurons in fact it is in the structure and folding of prions that long-term normal memory long-term memory appears to be significantly embedded what this means those of you who want to look into this further should just simply go online and look look up Susan link this that the Whitehead Institute what this means is
that there is apparently an internal layer to biology that has only now just been suspected to exist that is much much more primitive than the certainly than life as we know it at our scale much more primitive than cells much more primitive than even nucleic acid and the way it lives and yet it has this astounding computational capacity through its employment of quantum effects these are pictures of prions which on the right is a natural one on the left is one synthesized in the laboratory you can think about this as kind of as nature's original nanotechnology and for the same reasons that modern synthetic technology using using carbon and other non organic materials have to take into account the peculiar effects of quantum mechanics because the scale is so small apparently nature was there well ahead of us a couple of billion years ago and has incorporated it into the very structure of our beings a last comment you'll notice that strip of white missing that was a cheap and quick way to get a point across it's not an error in the slide it's the fact that even within DNA as well there are quantum mechanical transfers of entire atoms simple ones hydrogen atoms in particular for as far as a hundred base pairs in other words the entire when we go up to the level of DNA there are quantum mechanical effects that determine the very structure of life as we know it now this idea that you cannot use a purely deterministic mechanistic conception of how living cells operate how DNA operates how RNA operates how illnesses occur how cancer occurs how Alzheimer's disease occurs is something that is only just now beginning to reach public awareness I gave a talk at the professor tipplers University all about five or ten years ago to his credit the the head of the biochemistry department actually stood up and acknowledged he admitted and this wasn't even the challenge that he had never heard of quantum mechanical effects in biochemistry that's an index how new the idea is it's an index as well of where we're going that now finally there is an entire journal dedicated to this quantum effects will allow allow for life and they cause the most intractable diseases and I leave you with a quotation from Richard Feinman physics is imagination but imagination in a straitjacket it's important to get both parts of that equation correct thank you very much Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva.
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