election special
talk|9 may 2013|talkmag.in RAMESH HUNSUR
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editor talk In a democracy, election time is festive time. We have covered many unusual aspects in the run-up to the Karnataka assembly elections, slated for May 5. While shifting loyalties and machinations form the staple of election coverage, we also featured politicians with a genuine desire to do good. This edition is packed with stories about the elections. MK Raghavendra, who brings sharp sociological and political insight to his film criticism, takes a look at the idea of the ‘cosmopolitan’ Bangalore voter. Who is this voter? Raghavendra comes up with startling new metaphors for the English-speaking young voter who worships this city’s business heroes. Meanwhile, our political analyst Basu Megalkeri visited some of Bangalore’s poorest localities to sense the mood there. He predicts a victory for the Congress. In collaboration with a group of students from Mount Carmel College, Savie Karnel tried to capture the sentiment in Bangalore’s more upmarket neighbourhoods.
WE’RE NOT WAITING Roshan Baig, Congress candidate from the Shivajinagar constituency campaigns with movie star Ramya in tow
The BJP is set to lose badly, and the Congress will emerge as the single largest party, predicts Basu Megalkeri
Groundswell for Congress
n May 8, once the and Hanumanthnagar and found votes are counted, we residents of slums and auto drivers will know which party openly saying they would support will govern Karnataka the Congress because the BJP rule for the next five years. has troubled them a lot. A mix of The main players are the BJP, JD(S) people I spoke to—Muslims, and the Congress, with two new Tamils, Kannadigas, and womenparties, the KJP and the BSR folk—all indicated a preference for Congress, expected to play a small the Congress. A BJP defeat is on the cards, but significant role. Over the last few weeks, I and the only factor that may prevent a washout is the have been in touch rebellion within the with voters, party It won’t be Congress, which has workers, and leaders, and the sentiment surprising if fielded weak candidates, especially in across the state indiJD(S) pips Bangalore. It may not cates the Congress the BJP even be surprising if will emerge as the the JD(S) pips the single largest party, with the BJP and JD(S) coming in BJP, for such is the anti-incumbency mood. at number two and three. As calculations go, four days I visited areas like JJ Nagar, Siddapura, Vasanthanagara, before the elections, the Congress Srinagar, Mohammedan block, will get 90 to 105 seats, the JD(S)
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40 to 45, the BJP 30 to 35, the KJP 10 to 15, and the BSR Congress 1 to 5. Up to 15 independents are expected to win. Polls in one constituency, Periyapatna, has been postponed following the death of BJP candidate Sannamage Gowda. Which makes the total number of seats 223, and whoever has 113 seats will rule.
Negative record Over the last five years, the BJP government has emerged among the most corrupt governments in the country. It has been unstable, too, with three chief ministers over five years. In 2008, people were moved to vote for BS Yeddyurappa for three main reasons. The first was emotional: The JD(S) had backstabbed him. The JD(S) had got into a coalition with
Mark your calendar: May 5: Voting | May 8: Counting
From all accounts, it looks like the Congress will emerge the single largest party. But that won’t be enough. In Karnataka’s 224-member assembly, a party or a coalition needs at least 113 legislators to form a government. If the Congress wins 90—and falls short of 23— it will have to align either with Yeddyurappa’s KJP or Deve Gowda’s JD(S). The Congress once formed a government with the JD(S), and that party’s patriarch Deve Gowda gave the then chief minister Dharam Singh a nightmarish time. The Congress is likely to woo independents, or choose to go with the tainted—and therefore more pliable—Yeddyurappa rather than the JD(S). But again, all that depends on how many additional seats the Congress needs, and how many seats the smaller parties win. In any case, don’t forget to celebrate this festival. Happy voting!
SR Ramakrishna ram@talkmag.in