Conflict Networks in North and West Africa (brochure)

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA

Club Secretariat

Facts and figures

Conflict networks in North and West Africa CONFLICTS ARE MORE VIOLENT AND TRANSNATIONAL Violence in North and West Africa is on the rise.

In the last decade, clashes between government forces and local militias, rebel groups and extremist organisations have resulted in over 100 000 deaths. Conflicts have become more violent, increasingly targeting civilians,

particularly in rural and border areas, where state power and infrastructures have long been deficient. Conflicts are also spilling over national borders, creating instability and insecurity in multiple countries.

Fatalities involving Boko Haram, ISWAP and government forces, 2009-20 0 30 60

120 km

Tahoua

CHAD NIGER Madaoua

Nguigmi

Gouré

Zinder

Mao

Maradi

Birni N’Konni

Bol

Diffa Katsina

Sokoto

Nguru

Lake Chad

Gashua

N’Djamena Gusau Koko

Dutse

101-500

Bauchi Jos

Bama

Biu

Gombe Kumo

NIGERIA

Yola

Abuja

Garoua

Kelo Pala

Lafia Wukari

Oshogbo Ado Ekiti Ikare Major roads Ife Regional boundaries

Bongor

Guider

Jalingo

Keffi

1001-2586

AkureOwo boundaries International Idah Ondo

Maroua Mubi

Numan

Bida

501-1000

Maiduguri

Potiskum

Kaduna

Minna

11-100

Damaturu

Azare

Funtua Zaria

Kontagora Fatalities, 2009-20 Nigeria 1-10

Ilorin

Kano

Kontcha

Makurdi Nsukka

CAMEROON Mbe Ngaoundéré

Oturkpo

CAR

Source :OECD/SWAC (2021) based on data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), https://acleddata.com/. ACLED data is publicly available.

Lake Chad region

59 000 fatalities

is the deadliest conflict of the region

since 2009 (6 times more than in Mali), including more than 36 000 civilians

©2023. SWAC/OECD

20% Boko Haram + ISWAP (Islamic State’s West Africa Province) account for 20% of violent events 1

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ACTORS IN CONFLICT ARE COMPLEX To better understand conflict dynamics, SWAC/ OECD maps the complex relationships between violent organisations using dynamic social network analysis. This enables the identification of which organisations are allied with whom and who is in conflict with whom (rivalries) and how these volatile relationships evolve over time. Understanding these relationships helps to better understand underlying barriers to peace and inform more efficient stabilisation

strategies. In North and West Africa, allegiences between violent organisations are continuously shifting. Groups that were allies one day can fight each other the next and return to co-operation later. New groups also arise, split and reunite in unpredictable ways. These complex relationships mean that conflicts are more and more difficult to resolve.

In 2019, the number of rivalries is four times that of alliances

1 200

300

rivalries

alliances

Rivalries and alliances in North and West Africa, 1997-2020 Number of organisations

Rivalries

Alliances

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

* 20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

20

07

20

06

20

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

20

99

20

98

19

19

19

97

0

Notes: Data available through 30 June 2020 Source : OECD/SWAC (2021) based on data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), https://acleddata.com/. ACLED data is publicly available.

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©2023. SWAC/OECD

Secrétariat du

Club

DU SAHEL ET DE L'AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST

THE NUMBER OF VIOLENT ORGANISATIONS IS INCREASING Fuelled by insurgencies, rebellions and coups d’état in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Libya, the number of organisations in conflict doubled between 2009 and 2019. This increase is largely explained by the lack of a common political goal. While many violent

organisations often share a common enemy, they don’t necessarily collaborate with each other. As a result, more groups contribute to further disseminating violence across the region, reaching previously peaceful areas.

Between 2009 and 2019, the number of organisations in conflict doubled

604

1 199

in 2009

in 2019

Organisations in conflict in North and West Africa, 1997-2020 Number of organisations 1 400

1 200

1 000

800 Average 1997-2019 600

400

200

07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 *

06

20

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

20

99

20

98

19

19

19

97

0

Notes: Data available through 30 June 2020 Source: OECD/SWAC (2021) based on data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), https://acleddata.com/. ACLED data is publicly available.

©2023. SWAC/OECD

3

POLITICAL AND IDENTITY MILITIAS ARE GROWING These militias are now the most common type of organisation operating in the region (one third in 2020). They are armed groups that are organised in the name of some form of culturalbased identity e.g. ethnicity, language, religion,

nationality, place of origin. State authorities, religious leaders and community strongmen often use militias as private armies to settle disputes, compete over access to resources and strengthen local power.

Organisations in conflict by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2019 Number of actors 600

500

400

300

200

100

Rebels

19

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

Civilians

20

12

20

11

Identity militias

20

10

20

09

20

08

20

07

20

06

Political militias

20

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

20

99

State forces

20

98

19

19

19

97

0

External/Other forces

Note: Data available through 30 June 2020. The ACLED data does not distinguish between the perpetrator and the victim of a violent attack, except for civilians, who are always victims of violent events.

Source: OECD/SWAC (2021) based on data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), https:// acleddata.com/. ACLED data is publicly available.

One-third of organisations in conflict in North and West Africa in 2020 are militias

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©2023. SWAC/OECD

THREE MAJOR CONFLICTS These conflicts are in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger), the Lake Chad region (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria) and Libya.

All three show that conflict is more and more centralised around a small number of belligerents who are increasingly violent and able to better dominate conflicts.

The jihadist group JNIM in the centre of the figure below is a major transborder actor conducting attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. It has the largest number of enemies in the region illustrated by the red lines linking to other actors.

Conflict network in Mali and Central Central, 2020 Military Forces of Côte d'Ivoire

Military Forces Fulani Ethnic Militia (Mali) of Sudan Dan Na Civilians (Mali) Ambassagou Dogon Ethnic Group (Mali) Dawsahak MINUSMA ISWAP Dozo Communal Militia Ethnic Military Forces Military Forces of Niger Group of Mali Dogon Ethnic JNIM Tuareg Ethnic Unidentified Armed Militia (Mali) Group (Mali) Group (Mali) G5S Government of Mali

Fulani Ethnic Group (Mali)

Police Forces of Niger

Police Forces of Mali

ISGS

Military Forces of Burkina Faso Civilians (Niger) Dozo Communal Militia (Burkina Faso)

Police Forces of Burkina Faso VDP

Koglweogo Civilians (Burkina Fulani Ethnic Group Faso) (Burkina Faso) Unidentified Armed Group (Burkina Faso)

Actors

State forces

Relationships

Rebel groups

Political militias

Identity militias

Civilians

External, others

Rivalry

Note : Note: Data available through 30 June 2020.

Source: Authors, based on data from ACLED (2020), The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool/.

©2023. SWAC/OECD

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MILITARY INTERVENTIONS DO NOT LEAD TO LONG-LASTING STABILITY Military interventions only temporarily weaken their opponents without achieving long-lasting stability. In some cases, interventions strengthen jihadist and rebel organisations by contributing to their resilience. For example, some weakened jihadist groups have pledged allegiance to global organisations such as the Islamic State,

split according to ethnic and geographical lines or merged with other groups. These groups have also responded by moving to more remote or less monitored areas and participate in the regional diffusion of violence.

WAYS FORWARD: CO-ORDINATED REGIONAL APPROACHES AND STRONGER GOVERNANCE Military interventions alone cannot address the roots of deep-seated conflicts.

Co-ordinated regional approaches are required to address the diffusion of political violence across borders.

State authorities need to strengthen national cohesion by developing decentralised institutions and infrastructure and addressing civilian issues.

Rural and border areas require place-based policies tailored to their specificities.

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©2023. SWAC/OECD

West African Studies

West African Studies

Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

Read and download An online version of the book Conflict Networks in North and West Africa is accessible via www.oecd.org/swac/publications

Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

The book is part of The West African Studies series, which examines current economic and social issues in West Africa.

The full series, along with the West African Working Papers series, is accessible via www.oecd.org/swac/publications

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA

Club Secretariat

www.oecd.org/swac https://mapping-africa-transformations.org

©2023. SWAC/OECD

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