•GREEN AGENDA Planet Earth
NEGOTIATIONS ROUND II
Climate: A Global Threat
D
uring the Copenhagen Summit in December 2009, the battle for compensation or the carbon credit negotiations took centre stage. It was the first time ever for Africa to bargain as a bloc. Africa’s demands were not met. But despite this, emerging paradigms are likely to force the major powers to reconsider their stance. According to Javier Solana the Secretary General of the Council of the European Union in a treatise, Climate Change and International Security: “Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability. The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions that are already fragile and conflict prone.” As early as 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had noted that climate change will affect mass migration of people in the future. While this information was passed to the right channels, inaction by those concerned prevailed. In February 2005, when the Kyoto Protocol came into effect a new dawn was celebrated worldwide and hailed as a key step in mitigating the harsh effects of climate change. In his book, Energy Autonomy, Hermann Scheer, the president of EuroSolar notes: “The general tenor goes that what really matters for the future is to dissuade the US from its refusal to participate and to draw as many countries as possible, especially China, into a commitment..."
By WANJOHI KABUKURU
That the EU is scared and is now looking at climate change from a different prism is not in doubt anymore. This is good news to Africa which has been pushing a hard bargain on this issue, warning the major powers to no avail. Says Rhoda Tumusiime, AU’s Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture: “The Copenhagen Accord that was the outcome of COP15 provided a stepping stone for consideration of the demands of Africa in the next round of negotiations towards COP16 in Mexico at the end of this year.” The basis for Africa’s position according to her is because the continent will suffer more than most regions in spite of comparatively insignificant contribution to green house gas emissions in the atmosphere. According to the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, Africa should not be paying the price of the effects of climate change generated by activities of industrialised countries responsible
CLIMATE CHANGE:
Habitats under siege
for global warming, which is why the developed countries should provide for the needs of Africa’s mitigation and adaptation to climate change and variability. For ignoring Kyoto, dilly dallying at Copenhagen and engaging in meaningless and time-wasting diplomacy-speak, the EU is now worried of the security risk dimension posed by climate change. Mr Solana’s 15 page report which reads like a threat matrix assessment notes that Africa, Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and the Arctic are regions where climate change induced threats of “tension over energy supplies, fragility, radicalisation, environmentally induced migration, loss of territory and border disputes, economic damages, risks to coastal cities and critical infrastructures, conflict over resources, and pressure on international governance,” are already being felt and will be exacerbated further. EU is scared not because of what will happen to the other corners of the world but because of the spillover effects on its territory and its survival. “Since the EU neighbours include some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change namely North Africa and the Middle East, migratory pressure at the European Union’s borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future. This could also have a significant impact on Europe’s energy supply routes”, Solana warns. Perhaps this worry will bring genuine solution in Mexico during COP16
July 2010
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