COP27 REVIEW

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM SHARM-EL-SHEIKH

2022’s Conference of the Parties (COP), the 27th instalment, has recently been completed, in Sharm-el-Sheikh in Egypt to much fanfare. Described by some as ‘chaotic’ and others as ‘ground-breaking’, the event will most likely be remembered for being the UN climate change conference during which the Loss and Damage fund was agreed.

LOSS & DAMAGE FUND

The Loss and Damage fund comes after many years of wrangling and is being touted as a key moment for climate-vulnerable developing countries. There are still some elements to figure out, such as who pays what and when, but the fundamental groundwork is in place for a sustainable future. It remains notable however that this agreement did get over the line, which is perhaps symbolic of the changing pace of the climate conversation and the urgency under which work is being undertaken.

Nevertheless, while the Loss and Damage fund made strides, the remainder of the conference saw a variety of roadblocks and hurdles that make sustained progress challenging. This is why some commentators have referred to COP27 as a chaotic event in that it tried to do a great many things in a short space of time. Take, for instance, the issue of food systems. Despite food systems being in debate (as opposed to previous COPs), political obstacles stopped any real progress from being made and the issue became a political football rather than an area to make ground on.

This is important as food systems are responsible for about 33% of greenhouse gasses. Furthermore, they have a knock- on effect in terms of poor diets – both for those in poverty, and those who imbibe a fast-food, unhealthy diet in richer countries. This conversation is challenging, yet requires more confidence and urgency, as it’s a major issue for global health and in building a sustainable global economy.

ADAPTATION –A THEME FOR UAE

As stated above, major progress was made on the loss and damage side of things but there wasn’t too much progress elsewhere. In essence, this opens up an opportunity for the next COP, to be held in the UAE. A potential theme is that of adaptation during COP28 in 2023. Adaptation refers to the ability of countries adapt to changes in the climate, as well as to political, social, and economic changes to life in order to work towards mitigating harmful impacts. COP28 provides the opportunity to build upon what COP27 never truly fleshed out, thereby providing the global driving force behind the much-touted ‘global goal on adaptation’ (GGA). The GGA is still awaiting final definition, yet the sooner this happens the faster countries and organisations can get the ball rolling on funding and political movements to carry it through around the world.

At COP27, parties did decide to define an outline to measure progress over the next year, and this will act as the source material for the next step at COP28. That said, there was moderate action regarding adaptation in Sharm-el-Sheikh. Take UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, for example. He called for fast and efficient early warning systems that can locate and warn people of dangerous weather events – something there is a public will for given extreme weather events around the world in the last few years. Guterres stated that he aims for this to become a reality ‘within the next five years’’.

IMPLEMENTATION & RESPONSIBILTY

Given that we are now at the 28th edition of COP in 2023, there’s also a drive from the sector to move climate action from ‘target-setting’ towards ‘implementation’. After all, target setting is necessary, but it takes place in boardrooms and conference halls, while real changes to the climate happen out in the world, in factories and fields, cities and countryside.

COP27 has shown that, as the implementation phase begins, integrity and accountability will be absolutely critical. When making major changes there needs to be a high degree of transparency and trust so people don’t lose faith in the intranational bodies carrying out essential climate action work our planet sorely needs. Further, climate action begins at home, and this means that those involved in the sector have a duty to practice what they preach and live sustainable lifestyles while working in sustainable organisations. The ‘say-one-thing-and-do-another’ politics and public relations strategies of the past can no longer stand, as we are all now under the microscope, and utilising the positive energy of climate action without backing it in reality is extremely damaging personally, professionally and, of course, to the cause.

Energy Transitions

All in all, there has been a lack of progress with regard to transitions in energy at COP27. The sad reality is that not many countries stood by their promises to increase the ambition of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), although Australia and the European Union (EU) were rare exceptions among the developed countries. Given the aforementioned point on walking the walk as well as talking the talk, this has obvious ramifications.

Further still, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices spiralling out of control and this is something that highlights the danger of energy dependency. People around the world are feeling the pinch because of this and it could have been an opportunity to explore the possibility of energy transition. However, the conversation on carbon reductions, energy transition and fuel prices offered more of the same and risks us getting left behind in an ever complex and changing world. Again, an opportunity will rear its head at COP28, during which a Global Stock Take is due to take place that is slated to include a review of national progress in meeting carbon abatement targets. This will be a key moment and unfortunately is likely to highlight once again how much faster the world needs to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel discussions show failure of imagination.

AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY

COP27 saw the conclusion of the Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture –adopted in 2017 as the first and only formal UNFCCC agenda item focusing on agriculture and food security – in a decision to implement a new fouryear work programme focused on implementing solutions. While this has an objective of promoting holistic approaches to addressing climate impacts both on and from agriculture and food security, it disappointingly falls short of taking a food systems lens that includes all activities and actors from farm to fork.

This year’s COP has clearly demonstrated a growing appreciation of the imperative of tackling food systems in their entirety There is now a small window of opportunity until March 2023 in the UAE for governments and civil society to shape and broaden this agenda for the next four years. If not in the negotiating halls, then certainly in the myriad side events and discussions focusing on the issue, this year’s COP has clearly demonstrated a growing appreciation of the imperative of tackling food systems in their entirety.

An overarching and integrated approach to sustainable food production, distribution, and retail; nutrition and dietary shifts; and addressing food loss and waste will be vital to making comprehensive headway in addressing climate change and other planetary and social challenges. It is important the parties at COP28 in the UAE seize this rising momentum to become the first climate negotiations to make tangible progress on transforming food systems towards sustainability, equitability, and resilience.

The 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will convene from 30 November to 12 December 2023 in Dubai. The conference provides a massive opportunity for the world to take meaningful strides towards climate action after something of a deadlock at COP27,

Key Issues To Watch

and further, it also provides Dubai – and by extension the UAE – the opportunity to shine at the centre of the global stage as the world comes together to discuss the global issue of our time.

As prior mentioned, COP27 in Egypt hit something of a deadlock, with many commentators noting that the conference failed to grow upon the COP26 aim to “phase down unabated coal power”. This was buttressed with a goal to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This means that fresh expectation will fall on then movers-and-shakers at COP28, with a strong industry desire to make meaningful change.

Below are several key issues to watch out for in the run up to, and during, COP28:

1LOSS & DAMAGE FUND

’Loss and Damage’ was the name given to a policy that supports vulnerable, developing countries to manage their losses and damages due to climate change. It acknowledges that the people and countries least responsible for climate change are being affected first and most severely and henceforth provides a fiscal framework to aid these countries in rebuilding and mitigating the ongoing effects of climate change.

Obviously, the loss and damage agreement provided hope for many low-income countries that have felt the brunt of climate change, however, it also left a lot of questions unanswered. The main issues revolve around who is going to receive financial aid, by when and how much are the likely to receive. This is seconded by the chief concern in any major international package – who is going to pay for it. Many key players have kept their cards close to their chests yet COP28 is expected to provide a ‘big reveal’ in which meaningful ground can finally be made in securing answers to the aforementioned questions.

COP 27 also saw global governments agree the construction of a transitional committee that was crafted to offer insights on how to spend effectively and this group will share their insights in Dubai in November.

2early Warning Systems

In Sharm-el-Sheikh last year, the UN launched a plan to set up an ‘early warning’ system that functions worldwide. The early warning system is a digital tool that gives countries, governments and peoples prior warning of impending natural disasters caused by unpredictable climate changes. The technology has the potential to save thousands, if not millions, of lives.

As prior mentioned, however, the sticking point arises in the cost structures and those who fit the bill. The project is estimated to cost a minimum of US$3.1 billion over five years to get it functional.

The project very much has the green light, however, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres already establishing an advisory board which will be co-chaired by the heads of World Meteorological Organization and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to monitor progress.

Yet the issue of who will and how to finance the project remains, meaning this will surely be a major issue at COP28. Rumours circulate that the money will likely come from funding allocated toward adaptation. Paola Albrito, Director of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), said that in 2023 the focus will be on three priorities: identifying the current gaps and assessing the capability needed to ensure everyone on Earth is covered by early warnings, moving ahead on an implementation plan, and scaling up and securing funding to roll out and accelerate implementation

3globalstocktake

‘Global Stocktake’ is the collective term for Paris Agreement which aims to offer a global audit of the worldwide situation. Beginning at COP26 in Glasgow, the global audit comes to its conclusion at COP 28. The process is now in its second phase, which is a technical assessment period that ends in June 2023. This phase consists of in-person dialogues focused on the stock-take’s three themes of mitigation, adaptation, and implementation & support. The key findings are to be presented in Dubai and will no doubt form a major part of the conference debate and discourse, which will ultimately be the third and final phase of the process. The next stocktake will begin in five years’ time, as global stocktake is a two-year process that happens every five years.

4foodsystems

One of the agreements from COP27 was a new four-year plan on agriculture and food security. The new plan is the successor to the Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture established in 2017 and sought to expand the focus from agriculture to food systems. Unfortunately, this aim wasn’t truly realised and COP28 provides an opportunity to reawaken this aim and its importance.

Morgan Gillespy, the Executive Director of the Food and Land Use Coalition Program at the World Resources Institute, said that the coalition would “continue to push for a more progressive outcome at next year’s Global Stocktake and COP28,” while The Food and Agriculture Organization is also expected to release a road map to reduce emissions from food and agriculture systems in line with the goal of keeping temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius at COP 28.

The FAO’s Deputy Director Zitouni Ould-Dada told Reuters that the plan is much needed because the energy sector has clear road maps which attract investors “but for agriculture we don’t have such a map.”

5climate F Inance

High-income countries have long been criticized for failure to meet their annual goal — set in 2009 at COP15 — to mobilize $100 billion for adaptation financing by 2020. Adaptation funding stood at just $83.3 billion in 2020.

A report by OECD found that 2023 will most likely be the year the $100 billion threshold is passed, and annual funding is projected to surpass the billion goal in 2024 and 2025. High-income economies are also under growing pressure to reform and capitalize international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, so they can invest more money in climate efforts.

Last year, a group of independent experts commissioned by the Group of 20 major economies released a report that argued that the multilateral lenders could take on more risk and lend hundreds of billions more without hurting the coveted AAA and AA credit ratings, which is a red line that shareholders want to preserve.

There has been some pushback on the amounts from credit analysts, however. The CAF report, as it is called, also ties into other debates about shifting the role of the World Bank into more so-called global public goods, such as climate change. This all creates a momentum in 2023 for evolution. In the lead-up to COP 27, World Bank President David Malpass told Devex that he has “embraced” the idea of reforms and that the bank is “working with the shareholders on a menu of approaches