Suffesa monthly review june by Suffesa Strath

Editorial team note: Here we are once again with the second issue of the Monthly review highlighting some Key events that happened during the month as well as our index. Enhance your economic edge whilst reading our flagship magazineWe hope it lives up to expectations as well as draws more readerships. As usual, all our communication channels are open so please donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t hesitate to contact usâ&#x20AC;ŚTill next time, enjoy

Some food for thought;

"Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday?" - Anonymous.

“Together we Achieve”

Suffesa Editorial Team Director – Timothy Abwoga Contact: abwogat@gmail.com Consulting Editor – Allan Mutuma Gitonga Contact: allanmutuma@gmail.com Designer – James Phillip Contact: japhim01@gmail.com Illustrator & Grammarian – Brian Gachichio Karanja Contact: bgkaranja@gmail.com Analyst: Edel Were Contacts: eochami@gmail.com Contributing Writers: ROW Hazel Nyandia Ndiho Contacts: hazelndiho@gmail.com Willis Mwenda Contacts:mwendawillis@gmail.com

“Together we Achieve”

Contents Wintery June (Economic Highlights)

Feverish Budget

The Dark Knight’s Dilemma

Index Performance

Stock of the month

Stocks to Watch

Wintery June Economic highlights… The month of June in the year at 26 BC originally had 29 days, but Julius Caesar in 46BC decided to add an extra day to make it 30 days. The luxuries ascribed to being a world tyranny then were unbelievable by their sheer exuberance. Unfortunately, in modern day democracies our leaders do not have the luxuries that Caesar enjoyed. But I digress; I shall come back to this matter later. This article is meant to give you a short synopsis of the economic events that took place in the economy in the month of June. Let’s start with the easy stuff The Central Bank Rate (CBR; the benchmark rate levied by the central bank to commercial banks borrowing from it) was maintained at 8%. There have been no major changes in the value of the shilling against any major currencies. Inflation nonetheless has increased marginally and closed the month at the 4.91%. It's common knowledge, or at least should be, that national budget is read in the month of June. There were two major differences about this year's budget.For one it was read from an ipad, not the traditional volumes of papers that characterized other budget readings. Two, it was read by an individual who actually had an in-depth understanding of what he was saying. He wasn't the common politician delivering a key note address with a rose pinned on his suit. The rest was pretty much your normal budget reading. The government is short of raising its revenues to meet an increased budget (that stood at about KES 1.4 trillion), the normal tactics of increases in tax on booze was there and not Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” forgetting the allocation of money to presidential campaign promises (Read: Laptops za Standard One). Devolution thickened the plot a bit, since the government put forth the case that it would have to impose Value Added Taxes (VAT) on the basic commodities and reintroduce Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to bridge the shortfall in the budget, you know, on top of all the borrowing that it will have done. My two cents on the matter: the VAT proposition will not, nay, should not prevail. The Jubilee government is too young to pass unpopular (tax) policies especially in the wake of rioting teachers, disgruntled civil servants, jittery nurses and an already overtaxed and increasingly disenfranchised Wanjiku. My opinion on the capital gains tax reintroduction shall be expressed two fold. If I was solely to consider the government's plight, without even having to convince you using figures and statistics, levying tax from the from the real estate sector and the Nairobi Securities Exchange (the two main markets where capital gains are made by investors) would result into significant amounts of tax revenue being collected. But as a future investor in these two markets I am scared, in fact I am praying that CGT isn't put into effect because it may reduce the supernormal profits currently being

enjoyed by market participants, of which I intend to soon be one. Selfish, I know, but I can bet that is same mind frame land tycoons and major investors in the NSE have. If that's the case they will want to safeguard their interests by bribing politicians (because such investors are usually the political king makers) but this discussion should be carried on elsewhere. Closing with the County Budgets Our politicians have undoubtedly devolved into demigods who think that their counties are like the King Mswati's Swaziland. Presidents of their own little counties with boots that their subjects should be queuing to lick. Here is what I propose; I know different counties have different budgetary allocation needs. However, to stop our beloved governors from playing Julius Caesar in the year 2013 after Christ, the central government should set budgetary allocation quotas as a rule of law. For example, a maximum of 4% of the county budget shall be allocated to pay all county government officials and buy their cars, a minimum of 20% shall be used to build roads and other infrastructure, a minimum of 30% shall be used to build hospitals and improve healthcare facilities in the county, 30% shall be used for agricultural development etc... Yes the governors and senators shall scream wolf claiming that the central government is “deliberately stifling devolution” and what have you, but that is of course if I was Caesar of Kenya. I am not, sadly. We must then contend with our democratically elected (they like reminding us of that fact) governors spending millions of dollars buying themselves lavish limousines and building stately palaces, allocating peanuts to Wanjiku and her wide plate of needs.I hope you are sufficiently up to date with the latest economic events in Kenya. Suffesa Analyst Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” Financial Markets On the stock market front, the improving economy failed to spur the market this time round. The market shed about 7% on the back of decreasing bond yields. Makes you wonder where investors have stashed their cash this time round. The turnover at the bourse was down on the back of the Fed announcing a scale back on its quantitative easing plans. This led to an abrupt shift in the direction of flow of funds from emerging markets to the American economy as yields on Fed treasury yields rose. This led to markets such as the Nikkei index declining by as much as 7% in a day. In the Kenyan markets, the NSE 20 Index was down 7.34% to 4598.16 points showing signs of slowing down after a strong first half of the year. The NASI was down 7.83% to 116.31 from 126.19 registered at the end of last month. The money markets have also declined steadily to trade between 5% and 6% in the month of June. The 91- day T- bill stood at 5.99% as at 28th June 2013. The Cabinet Secretary however pointed out that Kenya’s planned Eurobond might face some interest rate risk amid the events surrounding the month of June.

It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 years to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently” – Warren Buffet

THE BUDGET Feverish… The month of June in Kenya is always met with a mixture of fervour and hullabaloo from the Finance and Economic world (or anyone who really gives two cents about public policy). There is always going to be a world of expectations on the budget reading, with many quarters expecting it to solve all their economic problems while the more realistic hoping it’s able to balance out any irregularities in public sending; something Kenya never seems to lack. So riding on the back of a new government and a fistful of campaign promises, the 2013/2014 Kenyan budget is nothing short of ambitious. The kind of projects that could yield wonders if successful or spell total disappointment if it flops. Spending more than what we earn. That can best describe the budget. The total estimate stands at Kshs 1.640 trillion (up by around 200 billion from last year’s budget) that trickles down to the usual sectors (national security, education, health…) with few new appearances; devolution in this case can be considered the new kid on the block. The budget, in the past few years has been geared towards the Vision 2030, a goal that is desperately sought after by citizens and leaders alike. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the dominating sectors in terms of revenue allocation are the ‘heavy hitters’: Energy, ICT and Infrastructure which come only second to Education.

“Together we Achieve” However, those (read disgruntled teachers) thinking that the bulk of Education spoils will go to honouring the age old salary agreement between teachers and government are pitifully mistaken (and let down), for it’s the free laptops to all class one pupils that’s on everyone’s lips. As there will always be a Kenyan gold medal at every Olympics, so must promises be honoured.It just happens that this is a very expensive promise. This is not to say that it cannot be done. Kenyans will just have to hang on tight in the coming years because the only place resources for such endeavours will come from are the citizens’ pockets. Without going into the finer details, for the year 2013/2014, Kshs 17.4 billion has been deployed for about 1.35 million laptops. The project is set to take place in stages, so expect it to become a regular feature in the coming budget speeches. Expectedly, the biggest beneficiary of this year’s budget allocation is none other than county governments (or as I like to all it, ‘The People’s Choice’). The people voted and are now going to enjoy 30%, which translates to Kshs 210 billion of the 2013/2014 budget through the highly lauded devolution process. Whether it’s going to reach the masses is an expose for another day. The reality however is that, the government has more than carried out their constitutional right (which calls for 15% of the budget to go to devolution), to hand over spending and planning power to the mwananchi. Those alarmed by the

massive amount of money that is going into devolution should note that; the beautiful aspect of devolution is that it replicates the growth at the national level to the county level and more so does this while catering to the specific needs of the ‘countizens’ (county citizens). Hence, if properly managed, county governments will be able to address the needs that the national government failed or refused to see, tapping into natural county resources, boosting productivity at a micro level and creating business opportunities in the process. But I digress…the point is that the money allocated to counties might look enormously straining on public spending right now but if properly managed, Kenya will be leap years ahead of their Vision 2030 schedule. As with any country that wants to move from the doldrums of developing to developed, infrastructure investment is key. The plans to do this are as aggressive as they are expensive, but not impossible. Around Kshs 220.8 billion has been set aside for the construction of roads and maintenance, the highly anticipated LAPSSET (Lamu Port- Southern Sudan- Ethiopia Transport) project, expansion of the Kisumu port and changing the standard gauge railway, which looks to reduce the cost of transport up to 300%, among others. As with all infrastructure projects, it’s expected that these will open up the country to trade and thereby bringing in additional revenue that will render the projects self-sustainable in the coming years. In other words, a solid investment in infrastructure will reduce pressure on public spending in the long run, which is the route I think the Kenyan government is trying to pursue. Health is another sector that’s worth mentioning given the free maternity healthcare policy that is being rolled out. Its share of the government Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” spending adds up to Kshs 34.75 billion with the free maternity care allocation taking up Kshs 3.8 billion of that distribution. Among other endeavours that the government hopes to achieve in that area, include free access to all health care centers and financing of health care equipment. Agriculture and rural development have a share of about Kshs 38.07 billion, which from the ‘meagre’ allocation anyone can deduce that the government is trying to move away from dependency on the seasonal trade in agriculture to the more reliable industrial sector. Despite this change of guard Kenya remains, will do so for some foreseeable years, a country with an agricultural backbone, so the government does well to allocate some of that money to the mechanization of farming, and increased irrigation projects. Along with the other sectors that were mentioned in the budget speech, the complete breakdown of the budget looks something like this: SECTOR County Government Contributory Pensions Contingency Fund Agricultural and Rural Development Energy, Infrastructure and ICT General Economic Commercial and Labor Affairs Health Education Governance, Justice, Law and Order Public Administration and International Relations Environmental Protection, Water and Housing

National Security Social Protection, Culture and Recreation

Parliamentary Service Commission Consolidated Fund Services

TOTAL

ALLOCATION (BNs KSH) 210 6.9 5 38.07 220.8 17.5 34.75 273.66 105.1 149.12 55.41 74.42 57.2 19 380

1,646.93

*Source Kenya National Treasury 2013

Now the major issue with any budget is the revenue. It’s always good to amaze people with huge projects and ambitious spending plans but

basic economics (and something they didn’t teach in Greece circa 2010 apparently) will tell you that a balance between spending and revenue is key. “So where will the money come from?” one will naturally ask after examining the statistics. Well, this is where the government usually reaches into the pockets of its law-abiding citizens who (very reluctantly) have to give up some personal earnings for ‘the good of the nation’. In this year’s budget speech, some of the more controversial ways in which the government (with the advice of the IMF) intends to finance its spending is through introduction of the VAT bill that threatens to end the regime of tax exemptions and zero rating through which the prices of basic consumer goods will be set to rise. Apparently, the public outcry following the tabling of the bill last year did not deter the government from reintroducing it.

Kenya 2013/2014 Budget Parliamentary Service Commission 1%

County Government 13%

Agricultural and Rural Development 2%

Consolidated Fund Services 23%

Energy, Infrastructure and ICT 13%

Social Protection, Culture and Recreation 4% National Security 5% Environmental Protection, Public Water and Administration and Housing International 3% Relations 9%

Contributory Pensions 1% Contingency Fund 0%

Education 17%

*Suffesa estimates, Kenya National Treasury 2013.

General Economic Commercial and Labor Affairs Health 1% 2%

Governance, Justice, Law and Order 6%

In addition, the government has also set plans to introduce capital gains tax especially on property owners, in what can only be an attempt by the government to cash in on the bubbling volcano that is the real estate boom, as well as stock market players. On top of that, the government announced Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” the introduction of a new railway development levy of 1.5% in a move that is seen by many people as only making Kenya’s trade sector less competitive, a detriment to international trade. In all this the Kenya Revenue Authority is eyeing a total revenue haul of about Kshs 1.2 trillion which still leaves the big elephant in the room called deficit, of about Kshs 400 billion, waiting to be handled. One way the government plans to handle it is through issuance of bonds and it's expected that it will be gearing to introduce a sovereign bond that could be priced at $1 billion or higher. This will be supplemented by more external sources such as grants and net foreign financing to the tune of about 223 billion. In addition, there is the option of domestic borrowing with the government setting aside about Kshs 110.2 billion for domestic interest payments. For the budget to succeed it requires people to understand that for every great endeavour that takes place, many sacrifices have to be made. On that note, leaders (and national planners) would do well to acknowledge that you cannot build a great nation on the backs of tired men; innovation should be sought after in the coming years to find a way to increase revenues to fund elaborate national projects without necessarily denting the people’s pockets. All in all, this year’s budget looks to be very promising and if carried out keenly with a healthy dose of moderation, we expect some good strides in the economic development of our country. Note: Figures might not add up due to rounding off, charts not drawn to scale.

By ROW

The Dark Knight’s Dilemma A primer…

atman fascinates me because he is one of the few superheroes who aren’t freaks of nature (i.e. genetically modified to be superhuman). Plus, he looks proper cool in his allblack ‘uniform’. I can’t help but list 'The Dark Knight' as my favourite in the Christopher Nolan reboot of the Batman series (and probably a top three on my best movies of all time). One of my best scenes (probably re-watched at least a dozen times) is the point where the Joker decides to unleash his penultimate evil deed and leave Batman with a little haunting moral dilemma. The Joker, mad as ever, rigs two ferries with powerful explosions; one carrying a bunch of Gotham prisoners while the other holding some law-abiding citizens just trying to get to the other side of the river. Now to make thing a little bit jokeresque, he gives each ferry the detonator to the other ferry and announces to each boat: they either blow up the other boat or save you lives, or if neither does that by midnight, he would blow up both ferries! Talk about you modern day dilemma! Now consider the game theory of all this (humour me, I’m a BBS student after all). In prisoner’s dilemma, two men are caught and arrested for a crime but the police do not have enough evidence for a conviction. The police separate each and give them the option of betraying the other (i.e. pin the crime on their partner). If one betrays and the other doesn’t, then the betrayer goes free and the silent Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” one faces maximum time. If both are silent then they go free, and if both betray the other, they receive half the maximum sentence. Each ferry has the option of pushing the detonator and saving their lives but ultimately staying with the guilt of having killed all those people in the other ferry. Alternatively, they could both not do anything and both ferries are blown up by a mad man. Alternatively, both press the detonator and kill each other. There’s no win-win is there? What would you do? The payoff (considering we’re talking Economics) would probably look something like this: Citizen’s ferry

Don’t detonate detonate Criminal’s ferry

Don’t detonate detonate

0,0 1,0

0,1 0,0

Most of us would detonate and look to seize a [0, 1] payoff. Fortunately or unfortunately in the movies both occupants had a crisis of morality and eventually decided not to do anything. And since the movie had to have at least one happy conclusion, (SPOILER ALERT!) it turns out the joker didn’t detonate any of the two ferries anyway (he wanted to test human morality when faced with a choice of survival). It doesn’t have to be a ferry loaded with

“Together we Achieve” explosive and you facing the near end of your life, but you have to admit that economics (and logic) run deep in every aspect of our lives; always weigh your decisions. By ROW

Index Performance…. Bears take control… Indicator Stock index Performance % Market Capitalization ( Kes . Bn ) P/E Ratio

Suffesa Stock Index Previous

Current 3,698.83 93.34 9.02

% change 3,589.16 -2.96% 84.65 -9.30% 7.70 -14.65%

Index Allocation

Losses at the bourse were attributed to distribution activities taking place at the bourse. This was witnessed mainly on KCB, Equity and Safaricom Ltd. The SSI index was dragged down by Liberty Holdings Kenya (NSE: CFCI), TP Serena East Africa Ltd (NSE: TPSE) and Kenya Power and Lighting Company (NSE: KPLC) which declined by 23.46%, 13.46% and 13.43%.The index composition remained the same with no stock moving in or out of the index. Index composition is displayed below. Suffesa| ©2012

Price Change

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

0.09%

-2.25%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

29.65%

-0.78%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

1.57%

0.00%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

5.90%

-9.02%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

0.64%

0.00%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

7.03%

-5.61%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

33.43%

-13.43%

Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00

6.06%

-23.46%

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00

9.68%

-13.46%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

5.96%

-7.32%

100%

-7.53%

*Source – Suffesa analysis he Suffesa SSI Index posted losses for the month of June amid a largely bearish outlook on the markets. Inflation was up at 4.91% from the previous level of 4.14%. The SSI lost 2.96% to close at 3,589.16 points as at 28th June 2013. Market Capitalization registered a drop of 9.30% to close at 84.65Bn from 93.34Bn recorded at the end of last month. Index P/E declined substantially by 14.65% to 7.70 from 9.02. This was however a lesser loss than the market which shed more than expected. The NSE 20 Index and the NASI lost 7.34% and 7.83% respectively wiping out about 10% of investor’s wealth at the bourse.

Weights

*Source – Suffesa analysis We expect the SSI Index to pick up in the next month given the stable macroeconomic environment characterized with a low Central Bank Rate (CBR) and a robust growing economy. As such we expect the bourse to rebound as investors come back to the market. However, recent disruptions in government operations may put investors on alert as recent events show that the devolution agenda may be in jeopardy. This follows on the back of the stand-off between governors and MPs as well as teacher’s strike which has disrupted the education calendar in Kenya. Firms such as Uchumi Supermarket (NSE: UCHM) and TPS Eastern Africa Ltd. (NSE: TPSE) are set to advance on the back of an economy that is estimated to grow at the highest rate of 6% this year on the back of the tourism sector and consumer spending.

Stock of the Month Two heads better than one? Are two heads really better than one? Do many hands truly make light work? Does the saying united we stand hold in real life? These sayings have been constantly proven in the case of office boardrooms and school work projects. The recent merger of I&M Holdings and City Trust Ltd. also portrays that these sayings can indeed be extended into the financial market as the consolidation forms a highlight in an otherwise slow month in the NSE. The reverse takeover of City Trust by I&M Holdings towards the end of June was met with great expectations by investors which saw City Trust shareholders gain Kes.1.6Bn and the share price of I&M Holdings jump from its debut price of Kes.93.00 to a high of Kes.103. Closing at Kes.98.00 as per 8th July 2013, I&M Holdings has an upward potential of about 3-7% given that its target price lies between Kes.101.00 and Kes.105.00 I&M Holdings is a stock to watch in the medium and long given its plans to expand into the regional market. The bank has already established itself in Kenya, Mauritius, Rwanda and Tanzania and seeks to grow even more given its feasibility studies for possible acquisitions or licenses in Uganda, South Sudan and Suffesa| ©2012

“Together we Achieve” Zambia. The listing of the firm’s shares will help it achieve its expansion strategy by creating a platform for raising additional capital. In addition, the bank seeks to gain a competitive edge by focusing on customer service through provision of efficient and quality services to clients. It also aims at enhancing product innovation as can be seen by the launch of the Master card Multicurrency Prepaid Card in April 2013. This card has gone a long way in giving the firm a competitive advantage by being the first of its kind to be launched in East Africa. The card allows individuals to hold money in three currencies namely the U.S dollar, the Euro and the Great British Pound. It is thus ideal for frequent travellers and useful in virtually any market across the world. The bank experienced a 15.76% gain in annual net profit to end the year 2012 at Kes.5.73Bn. Moreover, its 1st quarter results for the year 2013 improved from Kes.1.36Bn to Kes.1.53Bn mainly on the back of increased loans and advances coupled with an increase in foreign exchange trading income. These sound fundamental values of I&M Bank coupled with its positive financials make the firm a definite security to watch in the future. In addition, the increased liquidity of the firm’s shares and the interim dividend worth a total of Kes.745.5Mn that is to be paid out at the end of July is expected to result in a lot of trading activity in this stock in the NSE.

“Together we Achieve” through a rights issue while the rest will be borrowed.

I&M Share Price

26/6/2013 27/6/2013 28/6/2013 1/7/2013 2/7/2013 3/7/2013 5/7/2013

102 100 98 96 94 92

Share Price

By Hazel Nyandia Ndiho

Stocks to Watch Possible runners… Holidays anyone? This month TPS Eastern Africa Limited has made it on the radar of investors at the bourse with the high tourist season approaching. The company is a holding company of a group of hotels within east Africa under the Serena brand. It operates in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Zanzibar and Mozambique with 24 hotels in its portfolio. The company just concluded an acquisition of a majority stake (50.26%) in TPS Uganda. TPS Uganda adds to TPSEAL’s margins and increase’s its room capacity by 17% and diversifies its business risk in term of geographical location. While the strong competition in the hospitality industry cannot be discounted, TPS is well positioned to maintain its market share given its strong brand name and diversified product offering. Management has also expanded its city hotel circuit to tap into the growing Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Events (MICE) segment. Further, management has indicated that they plan to expand the Nairobi Serena hotel by 70 rooms at a cost of KSH 3 bn. Half of this money will be raised Suffesa| ©2012

The hotel industry has averaged a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% over the last decade and bed occupancy has averaged at 40% with a high of 47% in 2007 and a low of 26% in 2008. Stock Highlights: TPS Serena Current Price (28th June) KES YTD(%) % Market Cap (Mn) KES Shares Outstanding 52 Week High KES 52 Week Low KES P/E Trailing x EPS Trailing x Dividend Yield %

47.25 10.63% 8,308.01 182,174,108 61.00 36.00 12.78 3.60 2.83%

Black Gold Bonanza… There’s currently a lot of excitement about the oil sector in Kenya. Tullow has just discovered a new well and quite a number of firms are setting up in the country to explore for oil. How then can we get a piece of this oil action? With the inefficiencies facing Kenol Kobil the only avenue in the NSE is Transcentury Limited. The firm is shifting its interests to mining, oil and gas exploration and infrastructure development. It has done this by acquiring a 63% stake in Civicon, an engineering and logistics firm. Civicon has contracts with firms such as Tullow, EABL and Kengen and it is bound to benefit from the exploration going on around given that it provides support services. Transcentury has gone further and sold its stake in Chai Bora which is a Tanzania’s leading packaged teamanufacturer. The sale was made to Catalyst Partners and the proceeds from the sale will be

“Together we Achieve” redeployed into Trans century’s core divisionspower infrastructure, transport and engineering. The firm is also bound to benefit from the amendment to the Public Procurement Act which producers of electricity cables to be given priority in government spending. This benefit will accrue through East African Cables which is 68.3% owned by Transcentury and has consistently paid out dividends to its shareholders. It is for this reason that Transcentury is stock to watch going forward. The company is shifting its business strategically to take advantage of the lucrative industry of oil exploration. Transcentury Current Price (28th June) KES YTD (%) % Market Cap (Mn) KES Shares Outstanding 52 Week High KES 52 Week Low KES P/E Trailing x EPS Trailing x Dividend Yield %

By Willis Mwenda.

THE END!!

33.00 31.91% 8,492.46 273,950,284 37.75 20.00 18.67 1.66 1.29%

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“Together we Achieve”

Review by: Strathmore University Finance and Financial Economics Student’s Assosciation – (SUFFESA) Email –e.sufesa@gmail.com Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by SUFFESA and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are solely the opinions of the authors at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.