St. Johns Market Study Overview Presented by Lindsay Jensen & Blake Goud April 30, 2015
Questions to Answer • What is the current demographic makeup of St. Johns?
• What is the current local business market and are there market gaps? • What are the future economic and community trends for the area?
St. Johns Demographics Population
• St. Johns is one of Portland’s largest neighborhoods • 2nd in land mass • 11th in population
• Steady growth rate • Comparable to Portland • Faster than Multnomah County
2010 2012 2017
St. Johns 13,936 14,346 15,445
Multnomah County 736,785 748,445 784,058
Portland 583,786 600,899
Note: Data for St. John's show the population within a 1 mile radius of N Lombard St and N Burlington Ave. Source: ESRI, US Census Bureau
Population Growth (Annual % Change) Multnomah St. Johns County 2010-2012 1.5% 0.8% 2012-2017 1.5% 0.9%
Portland 1.5% na
Note: Data for St. John's show the population within a 1 mile Source: ESRI, US Census Bureau and SJMS analysis
St. Johns Demographics Population by Hispanic Origin
• More diverse population than Portland as a whole • One of the largest Hispanic communities
• Median age is 32.8 years • City of Portland as a whole is 36.4 years
2000
2010
2014
Hispanic
15.4%
21.8%
19.9%
Not Hispanic
86.1%
78.2%
80.1%
Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, ESRI
St. Johns Demographics • Median household income in 2012 was $36,283 compared to the median income for all of Portland of $52,158 • Educational attainment varies from the rest of Portland in 2 key areas • Nearly 40% of residents did not graduate from high school • St. Johns has more residents with doctoral degrees than the rest of Portland
Local Real Estate Climate St. Johns Commercial Real Estate Fast Facts
• Residential Real Estate • Soft Sellers Market • Competitive Renter’s Market
• Commercial Real Estate • 2011 to 2014: not much new real estate on the market • 2015: 6,000 sq ft of new commercial space • Likely to be a tightening in the commercial real estate market in St. Johns – would lead to upward pressures on rental rates.
Average price/sq ft: Avg. Rent: $4.44/SF Avg. Sales Price: $62/SF Total commercial property units: 467 properties, 414 buildings, 16.6m sq ft Occupancy rate: 91.1% Vacancy rate: 8.9% Turnover rate: Sales peaked in 2012, but have trended down annually to-date. Months to lease dropped from 29 months at the beginning of 2014 down to 8 months for the current quarter, but this is volatile measure that could easily jump back up. Owner occupied: 20 buildings of 2,299,689 SF or 13.8% of total square foot Renter occupied: 394 buildings of 14,317,278 or 86.2% of total square foot Source: Mark Porter, Colliers International, December 2014
Local business climate • The success of local businesses long term are not primarily determined by looking at how many and what type of retail businesses exist today • Identify sources of spending power for consumers who live in the area • Revenue per employee gives an idea of potential wage levels (with some big caveats) • Connecting residents with local manufacturing, construction, finance, real estate and some other service jobs can contribute to higher wages & spending power to benefit
Revenue per Employee (by Sector)
Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Manufacturing Construction Real Estate Rental and Leasing Other Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Administrative and Support and Waste Management Transportation and Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services
Employees 691 30 22 81 70 383 24 96 166 90 42 310
Revenue per Employee $ 470,556 $ 385,500 $ 310,833 $ 239,383 $ 236,229 $ 157,548 $ 130,958 $ 103,458 $ 64,554 $ 61,778 $ 51,714 $ 51,126
Source: SJMS analysis based on a sample of 251 employers in St. Johns Note: Sectors with fewer than 10 employees were excluded.
Methodology for Supply & Demand A x (B/C) x D = E E/F = G • A = U.S. sales per capita by business category obtained from the 2012 U.S. Economic Census • B = Median per capita income in the local trade area • C = Median per capita income in the United States. • D = Trade area population (12,207) • E = Potential sales in local trade area • F = Average sales per U.S. Store • G= Number of businesses needed to fill demand
A few highlights • Biggest area of potential demand is in personal care services • Beauty and nail salons • Personal goods repair (watch, garment)
• A few retail areas are underserved principally jewelry stores, family clothing, shoe stores and office supply/stationary • Survey finds oversupply of bars and restaurants but deeper analysis highlights opportunities for different types of food. • Next steps – organizing a consumer survey in partnership with Portland State University to take a closer look at this data.
Future trends • Low housing prices attracting more inflow of people from other neighborhoods • Positive for business in raising the average spending power in the area • Need to balanced with challenges that this demographic shift will bring in terms of gentrification and loss of affordable housing • The loss of some to the ‘diverse’ communities within St. Johns that gentrification can bring • Challenges us to think ahead about what we want St. Johns to look like in the future and how to minimize negative impacts of gentrification
St. Johns Main Street’s Strategy Key Activities: • Produce monthly seminars and/or networking opportunities for business owners. • Create and publicize jobs board for available positions in St. Johns • Develop resources for emerging entrepreneurs, Farmers Market vendors and home-based businesses. • Promote St. Johns as a destination. • Keep our pulse on development trends in St. Johns • Create new and enhance existing relationships with leaders within schools, large businesses, jobs programs, and public agencies. • Increase awareness of equity throughout the organization.
Thank you St. Johns Main Street 8250 N Lombard Street Portland, OR 97203 http://www.stjohnsmainstreet.org/ Come and see us! Our office is open M – F from 10 am until 4pm.