Items Vol. 26 No. 4 (1972)

Page 1




As THE RESULT of a review by an ad hoc committee of the the Presidents of the Councils in accordance with recomSocial Science Research Council appointed in April, the mendations of the ad hoc committee, which were apForeign Area Fellowship Program is to merge with the proved by the SSRC's board of directors in September. other area research and research training programs of its The board at its meeting in March had directed the two sponsoring Councils. These are now carried on Chairman, Neil J. Smelser, to appoint a committee from under the auspices of the Joint Committees on African among its members to prepare a report and recommenStudies, Contemporary China, Japanese Studies, Korean dations concerning future relations with the FAFP for Studies, Latin American Studies, Near and Middle East, consideration by the board in September. The immediand South Asian Studies. The forthcoming integration ate occasion for this action was the need for refinancing of their programs with the predoctoral fellowship pro- of the activities of the Joint Committee on African grams that have constituted the FAFP may well lead to Studies along with the Ford Foundation's interest in unian increase in the number of such joint area committees. fying its support of predoctoral training in this field and Plans for the necessary reorganization are being made by of postdoctoral research grants and conference programs. The board's action had wider significance, however. Its • The author is Professor of History at Indiana University and a discussion had clearly indicated the need for thorough member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Coun- re-examination of more general issues that had recurcil. He served as chairman of the ad hoc committee of the board that during the spring and summer of 1972 reviewed the relations between rently arisen concerning the Council's relations with the Council and the Foreign Area Fellowship Program and produced FAFP. These issues involved the nature and scope of the the report that is summarized here. The other members of the com- Council's commitment to area research-in the developmittee were Philip D. Curtin, Renee C. Fox, John W. Pratt, M. Brewster ment of which it had played an active role in the early Smith, and Edward J. Taaffe; staff, Eleanor C. Isbell. In the report the postwar years--the organizational status of the FAFP as committee points out that it was greatly aided by the participation of Acting President Ralph W. Tyler and President-elect Eleanor Bernert a joint creature of the Councils wholly dependent on Sheldon in its deliberations. It also acknowledges the friendly and helpsupport from the Foundation and operated as a separate ful assistance of a wide range of individuals knowledgeable about area studies and the social sciences and humanities: Pendleton Herring unit, and the extent to which the interests of the Counand members of the FAFP staff; members of the Joint Committee on cils and of the Foundation were served by this arrangethe FAFP; SSRC staff members; Frederick Burkhardt and Gordon B. ment or might be served better by some alternative.

Turner of the ACLS; Francis X. Sutton, Deputy Vice President of the International Division of the Ford Foundation and members of the Division's staff; SSRC board members Austin Ranney, Henry W. Riecken, and Robert E. Ward; William W. Lockwood of Princeton University, a consultant to FAFP; Irwin T. Sanders of Boston University, a consultant to the Ford Foundation and chairman of tile Joint Committee on Eastern Europe; and a number of scholars ill African studies and in Latin American studies.

AREA STUDIES AND THE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL Although the formal mandate of the ad hoc committee was limited to a review of SSRC-FAFP relations, the 41

Chairman of the board of directors asked the committee to consider insofar as it could the broader issue of the Council's concern with area studies as a whole. The committee early in its delibera,tions agreed that this issue, especially in its implications '. for research and schola,rship, w~ too ' complex and extensive to , be analyzed in the course of a few months and several meetings. Consequently, the committee reached no firm conclusions on this question, but it chose to present some general considerations which it hoped would clarify many of the persistent issues connected with the Council's concern with area studies. The committee also recognized that the organizational changes it ultimately recommended do not depend on whether any particular issue is resolved one way or another, or remains unresolved, but rather they are designed to provide a structure that will assist the Councils to steer a balanced and flexible course in their concern with area studies. As many observers have noted, one difficulty is that no one knows exactly what area studies are. Richard Lambert, in the summary chapter of his recently concluded and extensive analysis of language and area studies,l stresses that area studies are not a coherent, homogenous, clearly defined field. Rather they are a "highly diverse and decentralized" collection of interests and approaches, loosely bound together by an intellectual concern to understand various aspects or the totality of a given foreign culture and society. Most importantly, area studies are not a way station on the road to somewhere else nor are they "separate from and contrary to other forms of intellectual endeavor," to quote Lambert. They represent one way of organizing inquiry and of helping to focus scholarly activity, and they must always be closely allied to academic disciplines which provide the basic tools without which area specialists could not work. It is pointless to talk about a contradiction between area studies and the disciplines since they are not only not antagonistic but are intrinsically intermeshed. Finally, as Lambert shows, few scholars meet a rigid definition of area competence, and the great majority consider themselves-and in their training and activity indeed are-primarily discipline specialists. Thus, in terms of what is being examined, it seems clear that a close link exists between area studies and the Councils' concern with the social sciences and the humanities. A second key question is how training and research in the various areas relate to the same activities in the social sciences and the humanities. There is little diffi1 Produced under the auspices of the SSRC's Committee on Area and Language Programs Review, at the request of the U.S. Office of Education, and to be published in 1973 by the American Academy of Political and Social Science.


culty in humanistic studies where many fields are organized regionally and rely on the sort of historical and descriptive study in which area specialists frequently engage. In regard to the social sciences the issue is more complicated, but the dichotomy some observers stress may be more apparent than real. Without entering into judgments about "pure," "hard," or "scientific" research versus "relativistic" or "traditional" research, the committee nevertheless gained the impression that there are several important ways in which social science and area research, at the present time and in the foreseeable future, are moving closer together and, in fact, can strengthen each other. On the one side, area research is developing in new ways. It is becoming far more concerned than in the past with at least four different and significant categories of inquiry: interdisciplinary research, comparative study (across countries and regions), problem-oriented and applied research, and the study of modernization and development. On the other side, certain fields in social science are gradually absorbing non-Western data and are showing increasing interest in testing models and hypotheses in non-American situations. The SSRC's Committee on Transnational Social Psychology, the recently discharged Committee on Comparative Politics (1945-72), and the new Committee on Comparative Study of Public Policy exemplify the interests of many social scientists in comparative and cross-area approaches. Clearly, such fields as demography, economic development, rural sociology, and public administration are deeply concerned with the experiences of non-Western societies. There is also increasing interest in comparative urbanization, and a recent conference of Japanese and American specialists on child development (sponsored by the Joint Committee on Japanese Studies) reflects the broadened outlook of social scientists in yet another field. In short, the committee concluded that not only is there no great gulf between area and social science research, but in several ways the two endeavors are coming closer to each other and both can profit from a strong relationship. Among the questions that prompted appointment of the committee was that of the appropriateness for the SSRC of the FAFP guideline that fellowships for research should "contribute to an understanding of the area and its development." Discussions revealed, however, that this guideline was not intended, nor was it applied, to mean a narrow concern with technical assistance. It was not used to eliminate candidates in "pure" social sciences and humanities. Instead, the guideline was aimed at encouraging applicants interested in problem-focused and applied research related VOLUME




to all aspects, including cultural, of the development Councils in promoting and assisting area studies should of foreign societies. be the following: Nevertheless, the committee concluded, the Councils, (1) To forge a close link between social science and in whatever way they wish to organize their relationship humanities research and area and international to area training and research, should clearly maintain studies; this involves facilitating the integration their independence in determining what training and of non-Western data into humanities and social research activities are appropriate for them to sponsor s~ience ~esearch; strengthening disciplinary theaand those that are clearly beyond their interest and nes, skills, and methodology when applied to competence. The demarcation line should be discussed area study; stimulating cross-area, interdiscipliand worked out with funding agencies, but the Councils nary, and comparative research; and strengthenshould be responsible for setting and maintaining it. ing the ties between theoretical and applied reThe committee commented also on the role of the search in area studies. Councils in regard to the whole field of area studies. (2) To ensure that the area studies concerns and It agreed, first, that the Councils, representing certain activities of the Councils reflect closely the full research and scholarly interests of the American acarange of interests of the scholarly communities demic community, should be deeply concerned with involved and that the area groups have as much the history and development of other societies. Thus, autonomy as possible in developing programs to the Councils should promote training and research on advance those interests and in recommending foreign areas in the same way they encourage better what funds should be sought to support their training and research in the social sciences and the programs. humanities generally. Moreover, they have a special (3) To provide close counsel and concordance beobligation to find ways to bring these two concerns tween the area studies and the other interests of more closely together and to elaborate and develop the two Councils while encouraging new initiintellectual links between them. The primary training atives and new directions. of area students and scholars is in a discipline, and their (4) To minimize administrative tasks connected with research is the application of a discipline to a nonarea studies and imbalances in the activities and American society. Thus, the Councils cannot fail to be J?udgets of the two Councils resulting therefrom. directly concerned. (5) To increase the coordination between predocA second consideration recognized by the committee toral and postdoctoral training and research in is that the field of area studies commands substantial order to improve the development and utilization resources and talents in the social sciences and humaniof research personnel and the planning and ties. Area studies are at a point of considerable ferment conduct of research in each field as a whole, to and excitement. More focused intellectual leadership allow flexibility in meeting special conditions in would help the field move in new directions and estabcountries and regions, and to simplify the seeking lish the most beneficial relationships with the disciof funds. plines. Another related factor is that transnational contact and collaborative research will become increasIn the light of these objectives, the committee exingly important in the next few decades both to area amined various models of organization of the Councils' studies and to the social sciences and humanities. The Councils are uniquely situated to play a facilitating area programs. Several models were rejected as infeasible as was the possibility of continuing the existing and coordinating role in these developments. arrangements and relationships. After thorough study the committee recommended, ORGANIZATION OF AREA STUDIES and the SSRC's board of directors approved, a structure UNDER THE TWO COUNCILS designed to integrate FAFP under the two Councils: The committee agreed that possible patterns of rela- All activities and grants programs, both predoctoral tions between the two Councils and area studies should and postdoctoral, in area studies would be coordinated be assessed in the light of certain objectives appropriate directly under the two Councils, each of which would to the Councils. Noone organizational model would have a vice-president responsible for area studies, who permit ful.l ac~ievement of every objective, but keep- would consult closely and jointly supervise all area mg them m mmd would facilitate judging the "trade- activities. Existing joint committees would continue, offs" each pattern entails. and new ones might be appointed. As at present, some In the committee's view, the objectives of the two of the committees would be staffed by SSRC, some by DECEMBER



, ACLS. Decisions about the appointment of new com- itself would not sponsor projects in comparative or mittees and the assignment of administrative responsi- cross-disciplinary research but would suggest formation bility for particular committees to the ACLS or SSRC of appropriate committees to the officers of the SSRC would be made after close consultation among the and the ACLS. The Interarea Committee would be officers of the two Councils, committee members, and concerned only with issues touching on more than one leaders in the various area study fields. Funds for the area, and would not supervise directly the work of the total activities of each area committee would be admin- joint area committees. istered under a single integrated plan. Each committee The committee unanimously agreed that the strucwould have a subcommittee on grants responsible for ture outlined above will best serve the two Councils both predoctoral and postdoctoral awards. Shifts of and the field of area studies. It will most effectively funds among categories to meet changing needs of the unify the area and disciplinary interests of the two field would be possible and encouraged. Each committee Councils, while strengthening the ability of scholars would be responsible for setting coordinated training concerned with area research and training to maintain and research policies in its field. While policy super- the scholarly integrity and to advance the research vision of predoctoral fellowship programs would be the interests of their fields as a whole. It will also permit responsibility of the appropriate joint area committee coordinated planning and development of predoctoral and its staff, it would be desirable and efficient to have and postdoctoral training and research in a given area all nonpolicy matters connected with the processing of field, with due allowance for its special conditions and applications and the maintenance of fellows handled needs. At the same time it will encourage interaction in a central office. among committees and staff, both across areas and To increase coordination across areas an ACLS-SSRC among disciplinary, problem-oriented, and area interInterarea Committee would be appointed. It would be ests, thereby promoting cross-area and comparative composed of representatives of three or four of the research. Finally, the new structure will help support joint committees on areas as well as two or three mem- the Councils' leadership role in area studies, including bers from other than area fields. The area representa- the internationalization of area committees and the tives might be chairmen of joint area committees but development of transnational research efforts. since their chairmen are often overburdened, appointThe members of the ad hoc committee are convinced ment of other members of the committees as repre- that the arrangements proposed will bring considerable sentatives would be encouraged. The Interarea Com- benefits to the two Councils and will provide the basis mittee would assist and advise the area vice-presidents for the orderly and integrated evolution of area trainof the two Councils in coordinating policy on matters ing and research in important new directions. The cutting across area fields, in the exchange of information officers of the SSRC and the ACLS are arranging a and ideas, and in planning new cross-area research gradual transition to the new structure to be completed emphases and directions. The Interarea Committee during 1973.

CULTURAL AND POLITICAL CONSERVATISM IN MODERN CHINA by Charlotte Furth • A CONFERENCE on recent Chinese conservatism was held and with analyzing conceptual assumptions that underunder the auspices of the Joint Committee on Con- lie conflicting uses of the idea of "conservatism" in temporary China at Endicott House, Dedham, Massa- historical research. 1 chusetts on August 14-18, 1972. The participants were 1 In addition to the author, the participants were Guy S. Alitto, historians of modern China, concerned at the conference Harvard University; Martin Bernal, University of Cambridge; Arif with identifying and describing the various conservative Dirlik, Duke University; Lloyd E. Eastman, University of Illinois at movements and thinkers in twentieth-century China; Urbana-Champaign; Chang Hao, Ohio State University; Barry with throwing light on some of the special features of Keenan, Mount Holyoke College; Yu-sheng Lin, UniverSity of Wis· consin; Herman Mast III, University of Connecticut; David E. Pollard, conservatism in a modernizing non-Western society; London School of Oriental and African Studies; Richard B. Rosen, • The author is Associate Professor of History at California State University, Long Beach. With the assistance of the Joint Committee on Contemporary China, she developed the plans for the conference on which she reports here, and is editing the papers for publication.


Utica College of Syracuse University; Benjamin I. Schwartz, Harvard University; Laurence A. Schneider, State University of New York at Buffalo; Roger Swenson, Butler University; Wei-ming Tu, University of California, Berkeley; and Ernest P. Young, University of Michigan. Present in an advisory capacity were Albert Feuerwerker, University VOLUME




In most societies political and cultural conservatism complement one another. Under relatively stable conditions "inherited" value systems appear to be in harmony with "inherited" systems of political authority: for example, the relations of Protestant individualism and capitalist democracy in the West, or of Confucian familism and the imperial political order in China, indicate that close cultural-political integration powerfully supports conservatism throughout a society. The most striking fact that emerged from the conference was that the political and cultural manifestations of modern Chinese conservatism were quite distinct from one another and involved considerable tension between them. Cultural conservatives, who looked to the idea of tradition or its redefinitions to answer questions about value and religious meaning, also claimed to be radical in terms of immediate political alternatives. The reason for this, of course, is that the crisis that imperialism and the industrial revolution forced on China, as an agrarian non-Western society, was perceived as total. It called into question not only inherited sociopolitical forms, but also religion and cultural values, and at the same time suggested to most people that these vast changes were being imposed by an alien outside force, the West. After the collapse in 1911 of the imperial monarchy-an institution which, for all its faults, was a working political system and a symbol of China's historic social, political, and cultural unitycultural conservatism was difficult, but political conservatism was impossible. Cultural conservatism was largely directed against the West. It led people to try and rescue from China's complex history alternatives that were not closely identified with the imperial system or its ideology; but political conservatives could not deny the need to seek new political forms. Political conservatism, even as examplified in such a superficially traditionalistic effort as Yuan Shih-k'ai's bid in 1915 to found a new imperial dynasty, actually must be defined in terms of postimperial alternatives. Each of the two papers on political conservatism that were prepared for the conference offers an implicit definition of what the major political movements in postimperial China were, in order to identify the innovative thrust against which some sort of conservative counteraction is being taken. Both make global historical patterns, rather than movements peculiar to China alone, the key to establishing a framework of periodization and issues. Ernest Young in his paper on Yuan Shih-k'ai ("The of Michigan (chairman of the Joint Committee on Contemporary China); C. Martin Wilbur. Columbia University; and William R. Bryant, Social Science Research Council (staD, Joint Committee on Contemporary China). DECEMBER


Hung-hsien Emperor as a Conservative Modernizer") identifies two important historical movements: the one toward national independence and integration, which has been part of the twentieth-century anti-imperialist stage of a global evolution toward the organization of peoples into nation states; and the movement for mass participation in politics, which has been occurring on an increasing scale as the modern pattern of "mass society" spreads within individual countries and to more and more peoples throughout the world. In this setting the regimes of both Yuan Shih-k'ai and Chiang Kai-shek were committed to the modernizing goal of nationhood, and their conservatism lay in their opposition to its achievement through increasing public participation in politics. Yuan defeated the liberal gentry and their constitutional program. Chiang suppressed the mass movement of the 1920's. Moreover, both leaders wanted control of the political process by a small high-level coterie with the concomitant political centralization. Yet the attitudes of both toward the traditional political order and its symbols were instrumental and manipulative, and both turned to the West for models of governmental organization in areas such as law, finance, and military affairs. This view of political conservatism makes it necessary to struggle with the concept of "modernization," and with its implication of an impersonal yet benign historical process leading toward some pre-established future culmination. To a certain extent, it is possible to demythologize "modernization," for although to some people nationhood and mass participation in politics may appear to be desirable, they do not have to be regarded as morally valuable ends. It may also be possible to use the concept of modernization meaningfully without suggesting that the historical pattern in which nationhood and mass societies are still developing necessarily constrains the future, which is after all fluid. Nonetheless, there is a tendency-inescapable within the framework of modernization theory-to define historical issues and periods in terms of the contemporary "third world," and for the periodization to suggest that if modernization is not an impersonal process with an inherent force casting its shadow on the future, it is at least the product of the energies of men desiring change, whose hopes cast such a shadow. By defining political conservatism in China as the resistance to more populist forms of nation building, it is difficult to eliminate populist assumptions: in the past in China and elsewhere, national success has been associated with mass mobilization, and inasmuch as the citizen ideal has become a widely shared modern value, demands for its authentic realization in the future will continue to "make history." 45

A contrasting analysis of Chinese political conservatism is given in Lloyd Eastman's paper, "The Kuomintang in the 1930's." Here the period setting of the thirties suggests a different global movement to which politics in China may be related: that of totalitarian militarism as seen in fascist Japan and Germany and Stalinist Russia. Without making assumptions about historical influences on the Chinese, it is possible to see structural resemblances among all these contemporaneous regimes. They had a militarized conception of politics, well built around an authoritarian leader, and displayed a "movement"-style dynamism in action. With regard to the degree of commitment to political change, in a modernizing national dictatorship like Chiang's the aspiration was to be more like Western totalitarian governments than like liberal regimes content with an evolutionary pace. From this Eastman concludes that the most important conservative force in Nationalist China was not so much a matter of conscious government policies as the natural drag of a still traditional political culture inhibiting the rationalization of bureaucratic behavior. This is less a conscious conservatism than an unanalyzed traditionalism; rather than reflecting an explicit preference for old ways it reflects customs that are not thought about at all. In terms of the parallel with Western totalitarianism, the modernizing thrust of the Nationalist government was curbed only by the inertia of tradition. The government was right wing, but conservative in intent only in the attenuated sense that authoritarian regimes on the right are inclined to manipulate traditional symbols to win public submission to their authority. Thus, although the authors are in substantial agreement about the behavior of the political leaders and organizations they are studying, they differ over the meaning of conservatism and their differences rest largely on irreconcilable analytic approaches. Where one author focuses on specific, separable goals of change and the explicit sociopolitical conflicts that arose over them, the other examines the rate of change as an abstract total consequence of the political direction fostered by the Nationalist government. One sees conflict between haves and have-nots over property and power, while the other sees total political systems changing rapidly (by totalitarian methods) or less rapidly (by traditional or liberal methods). The latter approach permitted clearer analysis of time and change itself at the risk of losing sight of politics and of the relationship of conservatism to the passions of political actors. Moreover, an analysis that associates rapid change with totalitarianism is structured to make gradualism appear a value, and the liberal political systems that incorporate it in their procedures appear to be superior. 46

As the discussion moved from political to cultural conservatism, the emphasis shifted to intellectual history. Three groups of cultural conservatives were discussed. (1) The "kuo ts'ui" ("national essence") clique of the early republic, which consisted mainly of cultural nationalists, defined the essence of Chinese tradition in terms of language, history, and ethnic group-a definition which involved rejection both of imperial Confucian orthodoxy, on the one hand, and of all Western cultural influence, on the other. (2) The literary neoclassicists of the 1920's claimed to advocate a humanism common to the world's classical civilizations and believed that its greatest modem enemies were science and material culture. (3) Confucian neotraditionalists rejected East-West syncretism and attempted to revive Confucianism as a system of religious thought, now divorced from the sociopolitical institutions of imperial China, but thereby purified, and renewed in its capacity to answer-for modem Chinese-perennial human questions about the spiritual meaning of existence. None of these conservative intellectuals saw the problems of their generation simply in terms of sociopolitical change. They insisted that the problems had a spiritual side separable from the issues dominating the sociopolitical arena. When they demanded to know that some principle validated their moral intuitions, justified their pain, and explained the reasons for things in the universe, they demanded it as men sharing a universal human condition and they wanted answers that transcended the social circumstances of any time or place. In this they were distinct from the category of intellectuals previously discussed-the Kuomintang ideologues. Papers on Tai Chi-t'ao, by Herman Mast, and on T'ao Hsi-sheng, by Arif Dirlik, offered no evidence to challenge the commonly held view that the neotraditionalism of spokesmen for the Nationalists was largely instrumental, designed to foster national integration and bolster national pride. The distinction emerges most clearly by constrast with the "kuo ts'ui" partisans, whose equally passionate nationalism conveyed precisely reversed priorities: the nation has value only as a stream carrying the nourishing silt of cultural essences, and without this function might as well dry up and vanish. However, the case of the Kuomintang ideologues focused attention again on the tension between cultural and political conservatism in modem China. Conservative rhetoric could serve the Nationalist government, but culturally conservative belief was no longer tied to fixed sociopolitical norms. Most conservative intellectuals were both alienated from prevailing military governments, and uncertain about the sort of social or political behavior their beliefs theoretically should VOLUME

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enJom. Many supported liberalism in China, but did so with little internal conviction. Thus although Confucianism, like Christianity, historically has never been a socially neutral faith, among republican intellectuals the link between Confucian beliefs and sociopolitical norms was largely broken. A further question was whether these religiously oriented cultural conservative movements played a conservative social, as distinct from political, role in China. Agreement that they did so proved to be impossible not on empirical grounds, but because the issue raised additional theoretical questions concerning the appropriateness of applying a sociopolitical category like "conservatism" to the human search for religious meaning. There was a fundamental division of opinion over the proper scope of the sociology of knowledge, and the relationship of "perennial issues" of religion to their specific historical forms. A final approach to the analysis of conservatism in modern China was illustrated by what was considered the conference's "most difficult case," Chou Tso-jen (discussed in the paper by David Pollard). A cultural innovator, socially conservative more in taste than in values, Chou Tso-jen was both appalled by much in the Chinese past and yet felt unable to escape it. In outlook an anthropological naturalist, Chou drew from nineteenth-century Darwinian science pessimistic con-

elusions about the capacity of human beings ever to overcome limitations imposed by history and their own biological natures. If there is a true conservative ideology, distinguishable from the widely variant forms of conservatism determined by the issues of specific historical situations, it lies in a kind of historical consciousness: the belief that society is so profoundly conditioned by historical circumstances beyond control by individuals that change is scarcely possible, least of all in the direction of man's utopian imagination. But the flux of history to which a Burke could mystically assent was for a modern Chinese like Chou a prison. Mysticism was transformed into skepticism, the private dream of alternatives was seen as futile, and life left to drift along the set path of "inherited" arrangements. Although less centrally, the thought of many other conservative intellectuals reflected a similar historical consciousness. Belief systems as diverse as Darwinism, Taoism, and Marxism suggested to some of them that change follows rhythms people can only submit to. Whether others felt, as Chou did, that its pace was too slow and wrung their hands over Chinese "backwardness," or perceived themselves as antiques crushed by the juggernaut of modernity, a common sense of impotence induced an existential pessimism which had conservative implications for their action and made the tone of their thought one of "cultural despair."


THE fourth world meeting of partiCIpants in Project LINK (on the international linkage of national econometric models) was held on August 28 - September 5, 1972 at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna.]

This is the center for LINK-sponsored research on the Austrian Model, and we were pleased to be able to report first results with that national model added to our international system. As in previous years, the meet-

• The author is Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and a director of the Social Science Research Council. He has been a member of its Committee on Economic Stability, which sponsors Project LINK, since its appointment in 1959. The other members of the committee are Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University (chairman); Martin Bronfenbrenner, Duke University; Otto Eckstein. Harvard University; R. A. Gordon. University of California, Berkeley; Franco Modigliani. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Geoffrey H. Mooce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Arthur M. Okun. Brookings Institution; Rudolf R. Rhomberg, International Monetary Fund; Sally S. Ronk, Drexel Firestone. Inc.; and Charles L. Schultze, University of Maryland. Reports on the three preceding annual conferences on Project LINK were published in the December issues of Items, 1969, 1970, and 1971. 1 Present, in addition to Messrs. Gordon, Hickman, Klein, and Rhomberg of the committee, were: A. Amano, Kobe University; I. Angelis, Research Institute of Foreign Trade, Prague; R. J. Ball, London Graduate School of Business Studies; G. Basevi, University of Bologna; R. Berner, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; B. Boehm, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna; C. D'Adda, Univer¡

sity of Bologna; H. Eguchi, Bank of Japan; P. Fleissner, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna; B. Fomin, J. Glowacki, and J. Gomez, all of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, New York; L. Halabuk, Hungary Statistical Office, Budapest; J. Helliwell, University of British Columbia; L. Jacobsson, National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm; A. Knauer, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna; W. Krelle, Bonn University; P. Kukkonen, Bank of Finland; S. Kwack, U.S. Treasury Department; L. J. Lau, Stanford University; A. Lindbeck, Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm; J. Martiensen, Bonn University; E. Mlynarcz, Ministry of Foreign Trade, Warsaw; C. Moriguchi, Kyoto University; T. Morva, UN Economic Commission for Europe Secretariat, Geneva; K. Nagata, Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo; A. Nagy, Institute of Economic and Market Research, Budapest; W. Norton, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney; G. F. Palacios, Central Bank of Venezuela and International Monetary Fund, Washington; W. Piaszczynski, Foreign Trade Research Center, Warsaw; J. Post, Netherlands Central Planning Bureau; G. A. Renton, London Graduate School of Business Studies; J. Ryaka, UN Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva; G. Sandermann, Bonn University; V. K. Sastry, UN Conference on Trade and Development, New York;




ing served as a forum to keep participants informed on research developments, applications of the system, and plans for the next round of project activities. However, a number of new and unusual aspects of the joint effort were taken up in Vienna: 1. Inclusion Of Socialist Countries in Project LINK: An extensive discussion was held concerning participation by economists from socialist countries in LINK. Vienna served as an effective and attractive site for faceto-face meetings with economists from the Soviet Union, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. A trade model for Council of Mutual Economic Assistance countries had been built by economists of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (reported at the annual meeting in 1971) and programmed into the LINK system during the past year. First results on the use of that system were the object of serious discussion at Vienna, and significant improvement can be expected on the basis of the points of criticism that were raised. J. Glowacki of Poland, now of the UNCTAD staff, and A. Nagy of Hungary made noteworthy contributions to the discussion of these issues. The whole problem of model building for socialist economies was fruitfully discussed at the meeting, and it is to be anticipated that there will be new LINK developments in this area in the future. A basis for continuing cooperation with economists in socialist countries was established at Vienna. 2. Projecting the Trade Matrix: A central problem in the implementation of the LINK system has been the development of techniques for projecting the elements of the trade matrix beyond sample observations in applications involving extrapolation. The principal issue has been to relate changes in the trade matrix to price changes. Different research methods for attacking the problem have been developed at the International Monetary Fund (by Grant Taplin), Stanford University (Bert Hickman and Lawrence Lau), and the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (Lawrence Klein, Chikashi Moriguchi, and Alain Van Peeterssen). The conference discussed the theoretical bases for the different approaches, building on similar discussions at previous world or regional meetings, and applications were presented for some of the alternative methods.


A. Sawyer, University of Toronto; S. Schleicher and G. Schwoediauer, both of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna; H. T. Shapiro, University of Michigan; A. Simon, Institute of Economic and Market Research, Budapest; G. Szako1czai, INFELOR, Budapest; M. Tatemoto, Osaka University; A. Van Peeterssen, University of Montreal ; J. Vasianin, Market Research Institute, Moscow; P. J. Verdoorn, Netherlands Central Planning Bureau; J. Waelbroeck, Free University of Brussels; T. Watanabe, Osaka University; C. Wittich, UN Center for Development Projections, Policy, and Planning, New York; E. B. Yudin, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and J. Zaychowski, Institute of Planning, Warsaw.


In studies undertaken during the year between the 1971 and 1972 meetings, many simulation calculations have been made of the new alignment of world currency rates, and these have been greatly sharpened by the improved treatment of the changing trade matrix, where changes depend on relative price movements. 3. Medium and Longer-Term LINK Simulations: Although the principal aim of LINK initially was on the projection and analysis of short-run trade fluctuations based on national models that are generally assumed to be constructed for short-term analysis, there has been frequent reference to longer-run problems extending over a horizon of 5-10 years. The developing countries, through UNCTAD representation, have argued consistently in favor of LINK research on longer-run problems. This view was also emphasized in Vienna by economists from socialist countries. It has been recognized by many LINK participants that the effects of the new exchange rate changes probably will not be fully realized in less than two years because of the lagged responses involved; therefore the project has taken a greater interest in system simulations lasting for three or more years. Much discussion at the meetings was devoted to the problems of extrapolating individual country models for a decade, assembling the longer-run input for LINK Central, and reprogramming the world trade solution for multi period simulations. It was agreed at the meetings that these problems would be tackled during the present year. In the first instance, an attempt will be made to extend the world trade projections through 1975 and the entire computer program is to be reconstructed to facilitate longer-run calculations. 4. Overlay of Commodity Models: At the LINK meeting in 1970, there were extended discussions of the relationship between commodity and national or regional models. More formal discussion of actual linking procedures for combining the two types of research took place in Vienna. The socialist economists found commodity analysis to be of great importance to them. It was agreed to follow up some of the linkage techniques put forward in Vienna through research during 1972-73 on limited examples, to determine feasibility. Apart from newer lines of LINK research, several sessions were devoted to ongoing activities such as reports on revisions of individual country models, continuing work on modeling of capital flows, and the formal inclusion of new models in the world trade system. In connection with analysis of capital flows, models of the balance of payments were presented for the United Kingdom (by G. A. Renton), Germany (G. Sandermann), Japan (A. Amano), and the United States (S. Kwack). G. Basevi presented a theoretical paper on a VOLUME




complete accounting framework for intercountry capi- tails for preparation of the second LINK volume, to be tal flows and exchange rates. The necessity for improv- edited by Jean Waelbroeck, were discussed. This volume ing or developing monetary sectors of individual models will contain a complete listing of all the constituent in conjunction with the study of capital flows was models. A format for presentation of the vast amount of material involved was agreed upon, with a schedule for stressed. The LINK system of world trade projections incor- submission of manuscripts of tables and other listings. Informal publication of LINK reports was initiated porates revisions of the Wharton Model for the United States, the inclusion of the Austrian Model of the In- during the past year in a series of LINK "Working stitute for Advanced Studies, a new quarterly model of Papers." These are issued after editorial approval by Belgium built by V. Ginsburgh of the Free University R. A. Gordon and J. A. Sawyer. During 1971-72 the folof Brussels, and new regional models of developing lowing papers were approved for distribution: (1) Bert countries built by the UN Conference on Trade and De- Hickman, "Prices and Quantities in a World Trade Sysvelopment. The UNCTAD models were presented in tem"; (2) Lawrence Klein, Chikashi Moriguchi, and the Vienna meetings with plans for extension and Alain Van Peeterssen, "NEP in the World Economy: elaboration. Discussions were held on the programming Simulation of the International Transmission Mechaproblems to be encountered in the addition of new nism"; (3) Bert Hickman, "Project LINK in 1972: Retromodels for Italy, Australia, and Finland. W. E. Norton spect and Prospect." The Institute for Advanced Studies and its staff were described the RBAI (Reserve Bank of Australia) Model for the first time to LINK members. The lack of a suit- gracious hosts for the annual meeting. Participants were able model for France has been a serious deficiency in privileged to attend a dinner and to hear an address by the LINK system, and Jean Waelbroeck reported on the Wolfgang Schmitz, President of the Osterreichischer Naresearch of Y. Guillaume on construction of a new tional Bank and member of the board of the Institute. Plans were discussed for a European regional meeting French Model (POMPOM), which is nearly ready for in Helsinki, with the Bank of Finland as host, and posuse by LINK. Chapters for the first volume of research reports by sibly for a Pacific area meeting during the spring in LINK participants, The International Linkage of Na- Canada. It was agreed that a kind invitation from the tional Economic Models, edited by R. J. Ball, were 'Tercentenary Fund of the Bank of Sweden to hold the available at the meeting and are now in proof. Final de- 1973 annual meeting in Stockholm be accepted.

PERSONNEL FOREIGN AREA FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM: LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN In addition to the appointments of fellows and interns under this program reported in Items, September 1972, the following awards were made under two new predoctoral training programs offered for the first time this year: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH TRAINING FELLOWSHIPS

These fellowships enable a professor or research associate and 3-4 students from a Latin American or Caribbean university or research institution and a visiting North American professor and an equal number of graduate students to undertake jointly, in Latin America or the Caribbean area, a 3-month Uuly-September) research project of special interest to the senior scholars. Five projects were approved and conducted in 1972: Stages of Expansion of the Railroads in Peru and Their Impact on Its Economy; Codirecto1"S: Heraclio Bonilla, Institute of Peruvian Studies, Lima, Marcello Carmagnani, Luigi Einaudi Foundation, Turin, Italy; res~arch sites: archives in Lima, Matucana, Cerro de Pasco, Huancayo. and others: DECEMBER 1972

Peruvian participants Baltazar Caravedo, graduate student, Catholic University Dennis Chavez de Paz, graduate student, Catholic University Angel Delgado, graduate student, Catholic University Susan Griffis, graduate student, Catholic University North American participants Kathleen A. Barrows, graduate student in Latin American studies, University of California, Los Angeles John G. Bernardino, M.A. in history, Queens College, City University of New York Stephan C. Crawford, Ph.D. candidate in history, UniverSity of Chicago Robert Oppenheimer, Ph.D. candidate in history, University of California, Los Angeles Paraguayan Political Elites: Their Origin, Composition, and Role in Politics since 1930; Codirectors: Domingo R ivaro la, Center of Sociological Studies, Asuncion, Riordan ]. A. Roett, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University; research sites: Asuncion and smaller cities in Paraguay: Paraguayan participants Hugo Berbosa Oddone, licentiate in psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, Catholic University


Carlos Torres Alarc6n. licentiate in social work. National University Anneliese Kegler Krug. licentiate in history. Faculty of Philosophy and Educational Sciences. Catholic University Miguel Aquino Benitez. student. Gonzaga University

North American participants David S. Daykin. graduate student in sociology. Vanderbilt University William D. Gallagher. graduate student in political science. Vanderbilt University Arturo G. Munoz. graduate student in history. Stanford University Role of the Chilean Party System in the Last Twenty Years: Mobilization and Integration; Codirectors: Patricio Chaparro, Institute of Political Science, Catholic University of Santiago, James W. Prothro, Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina; research site: Santiago: Chilean participants Maria Victoria Castillo. Assistant Professor of Political Sociology. Catholic University of Chile Carlos Eduardo Mena Keymer. Assistant Professor of Political Theory. Catholic University of Chile North American participants Luciano Coutinho. Ph.D. candidate in economics, Cornell University Richard J. Moore. graduate student in government. University of Texas at Austin Jose Rodriguez. graduate student in political science, Yale University Relationships between Legal Institutions and Sociopolitical Behavior in Colombia, 1958-72; Codirectors: Fernando Cepeda, Department of Political Sciences, University of the Andes, Mauricio Solaun, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; research site: Bogotd: Colombian participants Alfonso Llevano, graduate student in political science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Gabriel Murillo, M.S. in political science, State University of New York at Stony Brook Patricia Pinz6n, licentiate in political science, University of the Andes North American participants Bruce Bagley, graduate student in political science, University of California, Los Angeles Robert Franzino, graduate student in political science. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign John I. Laun, graduate student in history, University of Wisconsin Case Studies of Successful Adaptations of Technology in the Chemical Industry with Scale Reduction; Codi"ectors: Jose Giral, Department of Chemical Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Robert P. Morgan, Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering, Washington University; research site: National Autonomous University of Mexico: Mexican participants Francisco Barnes, Ph.D. candidate in chemical engineering, University of California, Berkeley 50

Carlos Pani, Research Associate, National Autonomous University of Mexico J. C. Romero, Research Associate, National Autonomous University of Mexico

North A merican participants Luis Arturo Alfonso, Research Assistant in Chemical Engineering, New York University James W. Curtis, Jr., graduate student in economics, Washington University M. A. Monem Omran, Ph.D in chemical engineering. University of California, Berkeley Kyriakoulis Phi no poulos, Ph.D. candidate in chemical engineering, Washington University INTER-AMERICAN RESEARCH TRAINING SEMINARS

Seminar on Dive"gent Theories of Development and Dependence in Latin America-Quantitative Methods in Historical Analysis of Social and Political Change, June 25 - August 18, 1972, at the University of Chicago; Faculty ~i:ectors: Philippe C. Schmitter, Assistant Professor of PolItIcal SCIence, John H. Coatsworth, Assistant Professor of American Economic History: Nelid~ Ester Ar~henti Salerno,. student, Department of SOCIOlogy, Barlloche Foundation, Argentina Claire Bacha, Institute of Human Sciences, University of Brasilia Felix G. Boni, graduate student in political science, University of Pittsburgh Jeffrey L. Bortz, graduate student in history, University of California, Los Angeles Barbara Ann Browman, graduate student in political science, Washington University Rolando Franco Diaz, student, Latin American Institute for Economic and Social Planning. Santiago Edward Herman Goff. graduate student in political science, University of New Mexico Peter H. Lemieux, graduate student in government, Cornell University Clemy Machado Rivero. Faculty of Economics, Andres Bello Catholic University Lorenzo F. M.eyer, Center for International Studies, College of MeXICO William K. Meyers, graduate student in history, University of Chicago Steven M. Neuse. graduate student in government, University of Texas at Austin George I. Oclander. graduate student in political science, Indiana University Charl~s A,. Reilly. graduate student in social sciences, Umverslty of Chicago Emilien Robichaud. graduate student in political science, University of Chicago John H. Shamley. graduate student in history. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Maria Teresa Sirvent. graduate student in educational sociology, Columbia University Carlos E. Souza Baesse, Department of Social Sciences, University of Brasilia Marcos de Souza Ferreira. Graduate School of Economics. Getulio Vargas Foundation John P. Stockton. graduate student in government. Cornell University Kenneth A. Switzer, Ph.D. candidate in politics, University of Denver Manuel Villa Aguilera, Center for Economic and Demographic Studies. College of Mexico VOLUME




Seminar on Economic Aspects of Research and Planning in Education, June 25 - August 18, 1972, Lima; Director: Robert G. Myers, Assistant Professor of Education, University of Chicago: James Russell Agut, graduate student in inter-American studies, University of Miami Jaime Francisco Alaluna Martel, Planning Board, National Council of Peruvian Universities Ana Maria de Andraca Oyarzun, Research Assistant, Interdisciplinary Research Program in Education, Catholic University of Chile Jose Luis Barreto Rampolla, graduate student in economics, Florida State University Jose Camargo Guimaraes, Graduate School of Economics, GetuIio Vargas Foundation Susan H. Carey, graduate student in Latin American studies, University of Texas at Austin Nicanor Marcial Colonia Valenzuela, Planning Board, National Council of Peruvian Universities Vincent Cusumano, Ph.D. candidate in agricultural economics, University of Kentucky Christopher Dowswell, graduate student in agricultural economics, Colorado State University Everett Egginton, graduate student in comparative education. Syracuse University

Peter Felsted, graduate student in economics, Vanderbilt University Hector Ricardo Gertel Helman. licentiate in economics. National University of Cordoba Enzo Molino Ravetteo. Faculty of Commerce and Administration. National Autonomous University of Mexico Lolio Oliveira Louren~o. Department of Educational Research. Carlos Chagas Foundation. Sao Paulo Francisco J. Proenza. graduate student in economics, University of Florida Alvaro Sanchez Murillo. Graduate School, National Pedagogical University. Bogota Gilda Maria Santiago Cabral. Graduate School of Economics. Getulio Vargas Foundation Isaura Schmidt. graduate student in education. Stanford University .Iose Armanda de Souza. Center for Regional Development Planning, Federal University of Minas Gerias Alejandro Toledo. graduate student in education. Stanford University Samuel Torres Roman, graduate student in economics, University of Michigan Gabriel Zambrano. graduate student in educational administration. Florida State University

PUBLICATIONS Africa and the West: Intellectual Responses to European Culture, edited by Philip D. Curtin. Product of a con· ference sponsored by the Joint Committee on African Studies, October 9-11. 1969. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. June 1972. 269 J?ages. $12.50.

The Anatomy of Influence: DeciSIon-Making in International Organization, by Robert W. Cox. Harold K. Jacobson. and others. Prepared with the aid of the former Committee on International Organization. New Haven: Yale University Press. February 1973. 520 pages. $15.00. China: Management of a Revolutionary Society, edited by John M. H. Lindbeck. Product of a conference sponsored by the Subcommittee on Chinese Government and Politics, Joint Committee on Contemporary China. August 18-22, 1969. Seattle: University of Washington Press, July 1971. 406 pages. Cloth. $12.50; paper, $4.95. The City in Communist China, edIted by John Wilson Lewis. Product of a conference cosponsored by the Subcommittees on Research on Chinese Society and on Chi· nese Government and Politics. Joint Committee on Contemporary China, December 28. 1968 - January 4, 1969. Stanford: Stanford University Press. April 1971. 462 pages. $12.95. Crises and Sequences in Political Development, by Leonard Binder. James S. Coleman. Joseph LaPalombara, Lucian W. Pye, Sidney Verba, and Myron Weiner. Studies in Political Development 7, sponsored by the Committee on Comparative Politics. Pnnceton: Princeton University Press, November 1971. 337 pages. $8.00. Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, edited by Bert G. Hickman. Papers of a conference jointly sponsored by the Committee on Economic Stability and the National Bureau of Economic Research. Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. November 14-15. 1969. Studies DECEMBER


in Income & Wealth, of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, No. 36, Vols. 1 and 2, May 1972 (distributed by Columbia University Press). 1270 pages. Cloth, $17.50 each; paper, $7.50 each. Economic Organization in Chinese Society, edited by W. E. Willmott. Product of a conference held by the Subcom· mittee on Research on Chinese Society, Joint Committee on Contemporary China. with the aid of the former Committee on the Economy of China. August 16-22. 1969. Stanford: Stanford University Press. April 1972. 472 pages. $16.50. Elites in the People'S Republic of China, edited by Robert A. Scalapino. Product of a conference sponsored by the Subcommittee on Chinese Government and Politics, Joint Committee on Contemporary China. August 18-24, 1970. Seattle: University of Washington Press, September 1972. 695 pages. Cloth. $15.00; paper. $4.95. The Foreign Trade of Mainland China, by Feng-hwa Mah. Sponsored by the former Committee on the Economy of China. Chicago and New York: AIdine • Atherton, October 1971. 287 pages. $9.75. The Machine-Building Industry in Communist China, by Chu-Yuan Cheng. Sponsored by the former Committee on the Economy of China. Chicago and New York: Aldine . Atherton, September 1971. 356 pages. $9.75. Mental Tests and Cultural Adaptation, edited by Lee J. Cronbach and D. Drenth. Papers of a conference held with the aid 0 the Joint Committee on Latin American Studies, July 19-23, 1971. The Hague: Mouton & Co.• November 1972.495 pages. People of the United States in the Twentieth Century, by Irene B. Taeuber and Conrad Taeuber. Sponsored by the former Committee on Population Census Monographs in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census. Washing-



ton, D.C.: Government Printing Office, May 1972. 1084 pages. $5.75. Pidginization and Creolization of Languages, edited by Dell Hymes. Product of a conference cosponsored by the CommIttee on Sociolinguistics and the University of the West Indies, April 9-12, 1968. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, September 1971. 538 pages. $23.50. Race in the City: Political Trust and Public Policy in the New Urban System, by Joel D. Aberbach and Jack L. Walker. Report on research assisted by the former Com-

mittee on Governmental and Legal Processes. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, January 1973. c. 320 pages. $4.95. Social Indicators and Social Policy, edited by Andrew Shonfield and Stella Shaw. Product of a conference jointly sponsored by the U.K. and U.S. Social Science Research Councils, April 2-4, 1971. London: Heinemann Educational Books, July 1972. 163 pages. 拢2.50. (Orders should be addressed to Mr. F. L. Southgate, 1145 Bellamy Road, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada.)

REGIONAL RESEARCH SEMINARS ON AFRICAN STUD IES The Joint Committee on African Studies of the Social Science Research Council and the American Council of Learned Societies with funds provided by the Ford Foundation is able to assist small groups of African specialists to meet regularly in regional research seminars within the United States to discuss topics of common concern. It is expected that participants in such seminars will be African specialists from smaller and more isolated colleges, as well as from larger institutions in the region that have organized African studies programs. The seminar program is experi.

mental in nature and has a term of somewhat less than two years. Only the absolutely essential costs of organizing and conducting the seminars can be met by the committee. Seminars will be offered support only if it is clear that they will have firm and continuing participation of qualified scholars from a number of institutions in the region. Individuals or groups interested in organizing such seminars are invited to write to the Joint Committee on African Studies at the Social Science Research Council, 230 Park Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017.

SENIOR FULBRIGHT-HAYS PROGRAM FOR 1974-75 The Committee on International Exchange of Persons has announced that applications will be accepted this spring for more than 550 lecturing and advanced research awards during 1974-75 in over 75 countries under the senior Fulbright-Hays Program. Specialists in social sciences who are U.S. citizens and have a doctorate or college teaching experience are invited to indicate their interest in an award by completing a simple registration form, available on request from: Senior Fulbright-Hays Program 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 20418 Registrants will receive a detailed announcement of the 1974-75 program in May. July 1, 1973 is the deadline for

applying for research awards and it is also the suggested date for filing for lectureships. Applications from senior foreign scholars for temporary appointments at American colleges or universities are transmitted to the committee each year by Fulbright-Hays agencies abroad. The scholars are eligible for a Fulbright-Hays travel grant upon receiving a lecturing or research appointment. An annual list of such scholars is issued in March. Also available is a list of 49 senior Fulbright foreign scholars in social sciences who are in the United States this academic year. A number of them would be pleased to accept invitations to give lectures or to participate in special conferences under the sponsorship of academic institutions and educational organizations.







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