OPEN PERSPECTIVES EXCHANGE NETWORK (OPEN) The following observations and findings are based on a review of the pertinent literature from academics, research institutions and from various international and non-governmental organisations around the world (see the bibliography at the end of the report for a full list of materials which were consulted). They also emerge in part from the author’s twelve years of fieldbased research experience on issues ranging from humanitarian action and aid worker security to civil-military interaction, regional cooperation and post-crisis stabilisation and transitions in contexts as diverse as Afghanistan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Lebanon, Somalia Syria and Yemen for governments, UN agencies, the World Bank, nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), NATO’s former Civil-Military Fusion Centre and others. The author’s intent – and that of NATO’s Open Perspectives Exchange Network (OPEN) – is not to have the “final word” on any topic but rather to reflect a range of views in order to spark a free-flowing discussion and debate within and outside of the Alliance.
2. Global Threats & Drivers of Instability The concept of “projecting stability” requires consideration of very basic questions about (a) the current levels of peace and stability and (b) those factors that research has shown to correlate with increased and reduced violence (i.e., the outcomes that NATO may view as key levers in its quest to project stability).
2.1. The State of Global Stability International peace and stability have been the subject of competing-but-complementary narratives in recent years, which have significant implications for how NATO and the broader international community attempt to cultivate a more durable peace. How the Alliance perceives the level and nature of security challenges feeds directly into how it attempts to project stability. Figure 1
Conflict casualties per million head of population (line graph) and increasing battlefield deaths since 2010 (bar graph, inset)
Cultivating a More Durable Peace
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January 2017
