Horseracing
You would naturally assume that a student who takes trumpet lessons once a week for two years would be able to play their instrument with a moderate level of proficiency. What would be the result, though, if over the next 12 months, the student only bothered to practice half a dozen times? You guessed it — this player’s level of expertise would dramatically recede. The same axiom of deterioration through complacency applies to thoroughbred racehorses, and when these animals spend extended periods of time away from the oval, an erosion of skills is inherent.
Eric Vaughn Floyd is a turf writer for various gaming publications and consultant to several nationwide media outlets in regards to the Triple Crown. Excerpts from his gambling memoir, “The Backstretch (My First Decade Playing the Game),” can be viewed at LULU.com.
Horseracing: Handicapping Thoroughbreds Returning from a Layoff
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Thoroughbred racehorses are physically gifted equine athletes, and like any competitor, they remain susceptible to the rigors that their craft distributes. Minor injuries are common, and while a fair percentage of equines have competed with a bump or bruise, runners with serious afflictions usually require an extended vacation in order to regain soundness. Owners spend vast amounts of money to buy thoroughbreds, and trainers depend on equine success to put food on the table. Due to these monetary consequences, the last word either party ever wants to utter is “retirement.” Even if a thoroughbred seems destined for the breeding shed, a hiatus will almost always be furnished by the connections until any hope of recovery has been extinguished. This period of optimism typically has no expiration date and may be significant if the equine is in the early stages of their career and has not yet had the opportunity to reach full potential. Handicapping a horse race in which a key contender is coming off an extended layoff often rates as problematic. One may search the work tab for answers, but most seasoned handicappers know that even if these numbers read solidly, the animal may still be lacking prime fitness. A thoroughbred will usually not fire their best shot returning from a layoff that stretches past three months, and, in most cases, it is suggested to let such a beast get a race under their belt before backing them at the mutual window. Now, most handicapping ideologies contain exception clauses, and with that said, I do believe a player can capitalize on a prodigal runner who possesses a significant class edge. If I could only teach you one thing about betting the ponies that my 15 years of experience has taught me, it would be that CLASS WINS RACES! The term “class” may be initially difficult to get your mind around, but for our purposes, a “classy” racehorse will demonstrate the willingness to win in fast company. The classiest horses regularly run in stakes races, and in descending order of prestige, these contests rank: Grade 1 Stakes,
Grade 2 Stakes, Grade 3 Stakes and Non-Graded Stakes. It would now be pertinent to cite a few examples that lend creditability to the claim that “backclass” is a power ful handicapping angle, and Eric Floyd as fate would have it, two perfect illustrations just happen to be festering in my frontal lobe. On Feb. 5, I visited Tampa Bay Downs to view the 21st running of the Super Stakes, and while figuring the feature, it became apparent that though a field of 10 was set to go post ward, only two runners warranted consideration for win honors. See I A had won the non-graded Pelican Stakes in his last start at Tampa and sought a sixth consecutive triumph, while morning-line favorite and Grade I winner Capt. Candyman Can was returning to action off a 15-month layoff. Deciding between these entries was perplexing because the local equine was performing at an astonishing level but was outclassed on paper by his rusty rival. My quandary was only augmented after a glance at the tote board revealed that both runners stood at odds of 2-1, obviously my fellow patrons straddled the fence as well. Even though I always preach the importance of “class,” in the end I became smitten with See I A’s string of victories. This transgression ultimately cost me, and after Capt. Candyman Can rallied to win by half a length, I came to the realization that betting a former claimer to best a runner who had participated in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Sprint was a poor decision. Held on March 5 at Aqueduct Racecourse, the 1 1/16mile Gotham Stakes was headlined by Kentucky Derby contenders Toby’s Corner and Stay Thirsty. Toby’s Corner entered the Gotham off an impressive score in Aqueduct’s non-graded Whirlaway Stakes a month earlier, while multiple Grade I Stakes participant Stay Thirsty was making his return to action off a four-month layoff. “Back-class” was again the deciding factor in this race, as odds-on-favorite Stay Thirsty won easily by 3¼ lengths. It is important to note that while the examples given pertain to stakes horses, the “back-class” angle can also be used in handicapping other levels of racing. Competitive allowance types descending into the claiming ranks always deserve consideration, as do equines who fall from Maiden Special Weight into Maiden Claiming. Remember that the aim in this game is to simply find the fastest horse, and they reside in one place — the head of their “class.”
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