9780753555002

FRAMERS

FRAMERS FRAMERS Human Advantage MAKE BETTER in an Age of DECISIONS Technology and Turmoil

IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA

Kenneth Cukier Kenneth Viktor MayerViktor Mayer-Schönberger Cukier FrancisSchönberger de Véricourt

Francis de Véricourt

1 WH Allen, an imprint of Ebury Publishing, 20 Vauxhall Bridge Road, London SW1V 2SA WH Allen is part of the Penguin Random House group of companies whose addresses can be found at global.penguinrandomhouse.com

Copyright © Kenneth Cukier, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, and Francis de Véricourt 2021 Kenneth Cukier, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, and Francis de Véricourt have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this Work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 First published in the United Kingdom by WH Allen in 2021 First published in the United States by Dutton in 2021 This edition published in the United Kingdom by WH Allen in 2022 www.penguin.co.uk A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 9780753555002 Book design by Nancy Resnick Printed and bound in Great Britain by Clays Ltd, Elcograf S.p.A. The authorised representative in the EEA is Penguin Random House Ireland, Morrison Chambers, 32 Nassau Street, Dublin D02 YH68 Penguin Random House is committed to a sustainable future for our business, our readers and our planet. This book is made from Forest Stewardship Council® certified paper.

To my wife Heather K.N.C.

To Hans Kraus V.M.S.

In memory of Hervé Raynaud F.d.V.

For there For there is always is always light,light, if only if only we’rewe’re bravebrave enough enough to seetoit.see it.

If only If only we’rewe’re bravebrave enough enough to beto it.be it.

—Amanda —Amanda Gorman, Gorman, January January 20, 2021 20, 2021

contents contents

1. decisions 1. decisions

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the source the source of human of human powerpower is neither is neither musclemuscle nor mind nor but mind but models models

2. framing 2. framing

mentalmental models models infuseinfuse everything everything we do,weeven do, ifeven we’re if we’re unaware unaware of them of them

3. causality 3. causality

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we arewecausalare causalinference inference engines engines and often and wrong, often wrong, but this but this is good is good

4. counterfactuals 4. counterfactuals envisioning envisioning worldsworlds that do that notdo exist notlets existuslets excel us excel in thisinone this one

5. constraints 5. constraints our vision our vision needsneeds to be to bounded be bounded to be to effective be effective

6. reframing 6. reframing occasionally occasionally we need we to need switch to switch framesframes or invent or invent new ones new ones

123 123

7. learning 7. learning

149 149

a widea variety wide variety of frames of frames is crucial is crucial for progress for progress

8. pluralism 8. pluralism

173 173

a coexistence a coexistence of frames of frames is essential is essential to humanity’s to humanity’s survival survival

9. vigilance 9. vigilance

201 201

we must weremain must remain on guard on guard not to not cede to our cedepower our power

a guide a guide to working to working with frames with frames

219 219

notes notes

222 222

acknowledgments acknowledgments

249 249

index index

253 253

aboutabout the authors the authors

263 263

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decisions decisions the source the source of human of human power power is neither is neither muscle muscle nor mind nor mind but models but models

SomeSome threats threats are sudden are sudden and unexpected. and unexpected.

Others Others are slow are and slowsmoland smoldering. dering.

BothBoth represent represent cognitive cognitive blindblind spotsspots for which for which societies societies are are unprepared. unprepared.

Whether Whether pandemics pandemics or populism, or populism, new weapons new weapons or new or new technologies, technologies, global global warming warming or gaping or gaping inequalities, inequalities, how humans how humans respond respond marks marks the diff theerence difference between between survival survival and extinction. and extinction.

And And how we how act wedepends act depends on what on what we see. we see.

EachEach year, year, moremore than than 700,000 700,000 people people around around the world the world die from die from infections infections that antibiotics that antibiotics once once curedcured but no but longer no longer do. The do.bacteria The bacteria have have developed developed resistance. resistance.

The number The number of deaths of deaths is rising is rising fast. Unfast. Unless aless solution a solution is found, is found, it is on it is track on track to hitto ten hitmillion ten million a year, a year, or one or one person person everyevery threethree seconds. seconds.

It makes It makes even even the tragedy the tragedy of Covidof Covid19 19 pale by pale comparison. by comparison.

And it And is aitproblem is a problem that society that society itselfitself has prohas produced. duced.

Antibiotics Antibiotics workwork less and less less andwell less due wellto due overuse: to overuse: the very the very drugsdrugs that could that could once once staunch staunch the bacteria the bacteria have have turned turned themthem into into superbugs. superbugs.

We take We antibiotics take antibiotics for granted, for granted, but before but before penicillin penicillin was discovwas discovered ered in 1928 in 1928 and mass-produced and mass-produced moremore thanthan a decade a decade later,later, people people 1

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routinely routinely died died fromfrom broken broken bonesbones or simple or simple scratches. scratches.

In 1924, In 1924, the the sixteensixteenyear-yearold son oldof son American of American president president Calvin Calvin Coolidge Coolidge got agot a blister blister on his ontoe hiswhile toe while playing playing tennis tennis on the onWhite the White House House lawn.lawn.

It It became became infected, infected, and he and died he died within within the week— the week— neither neither his status his status nor wealth nor wealth couldcould save him. save him.

Today, Today, almost almost everyevery aspect aspect of medicine, of medicine, fromfrom a C-section a C-section to cosmetic to cosmetic surgery surgery to chemotherapy, to chemotherapy, reliesrelies on on antibiotics. antibiotics.

If their If their power power were were to wane to wane thosethose treatments treatments would would become become far riskier. far riskier.

FromFrom her colorful, her colorful, plant-strewn plant-strewn officeoffi ince Cambridge, in Cambridge, MassaMassachusetts, chusetts, Regina Regina Barzilay, Barzilay, a professor a professor of artifi of cial artifiintelligence cial intelligence at MIT, at MIT, envisioned envisioned a solution. a solution.

Conventional Conventional drug drug development development mostly mostly on finding on finding substances substances with with molecular molecular “fingerprints” “fingerprints” similar similar focuses focuses to ones to ones that work. that work.

That That generally generally performs performs well, well, but not butfor notantifor antibiotics. biotics.

MostMost substances substances with with similar similar compositions compositions have have already already been been examined, examined, and new andantibiotics new antibiotics are soare close so close in structure in structure to existto existing ones ing ones that bacteria that bacteria quickly quickly develop develop resistance resistance to them, to them, too. So too. So Barzilay Barzilay and aand diverse a diverse teamteam of biologists of biologists and computer and computer scientists, scientists, led led

by Jim byCollins, Jim Collins, a professor a professor of bioengineering of bioengineering at MIT, at MIT, embraced embraced an an alternative alternative approach. approach.

WhatWhat if, instead if, instead of looking of looking for structural for structural simi-similarities, larities, they they focused focused on the oneff the ect: effDid ect:itDid killitbacteria? kill bacteria?

TheyThey reconreconceived ceived the problem the problem not asnot a biological as a biological one but onean but informational an informational one. one.

Charismatic Charismatic and confi and confi dent,dent, Barzilay Barzilay doesn’t doesn’t comecome across across as a as a typical typical nerd.nerd.

But then, But then, she isshe accustomed is accustomed to defying to defying categories. categories.

She She grew grew up under up under communism communism in what in what is now is Moldova, now Moldova, speaking speaking Rus- Russian; sian; was educated was educated in Israel, in Israel, speaking speaking Hebrew; Hebrew; and attended and attended grad grad school school in America. in America.

In 2014, In 2014, as a new as a mother new mother in herinearly her early forties, forties, she she was diagnosed was diagnosed with with breastbreast cancer, cancer, which which she survived she survived after after difficult difficult treatments. treatments.

This This ordeal ordeal led her ledto her change to change her research her research in order in order to to focusfocus on artifi on artifi cial intelligence cial intelligence in medicine. in medicine.

As her Asresearch her research gained gained attention, attention, a MacArthur a MacArthur “genius “genius grant” grant” followed. followed.

Barzilay Barzilay and the andteam the team got togot work. to work.

TheyThey trained trained an algorithm an algorithm on on

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moremore than than 2,3002,300 compounds compounds with with antimicrobial antimicrobial properties, properties, to find to find if anyifinhibited any inhibited the growth the growth of E. coli, of E.acoli, noxious a noxious bacterium. bacterium.

ThenThen the the model model was applied was applied to around to around six thousand six thousand molecules molecules in the inDrug the Drug Repurposing Repurposing Hub and Hublater and to later more to more than than one hundred one hundred million million mol- molecules ecules in another in another database database to predict to predict which which might might work.work.

In early In early 20202020 they struck they struck gold.gold.

One molecule One molecule stoodstood out. They out. They named named it “halit “halicin” icin” after after HAL,HAL, the renegade the renegade computer computer in 2001: in 2001: A Space A Space Odyssey.

Odyssey.

The discovery The discovery of a superdrug of a superdrug to kill tosuperbugs kill superbugs mademade headlines headlines around around the world. the world.

It wasIthailed was hailed as a “video as a “video killedkilled the radio the radio star” star” mo- momentment for the forsuperiority the superiority of machine of machine over man. over man.

“AI Discovers “AI Discovers Anti-Antibiotics biotics to Treat to Treat Drug-DrugResistant Resistant Diseases,” Diseases,” boomed boomed a fronta frontpage page headline headline in theinFinancial the Financial Times.

Times.

But that But missed that missed the real thestory. real story.

It wasn’t It wasn’t a victory a victory for artifi for artifi cial incial intelligence telligence but abut success a success of human of human cognition: cognition: the ability the ability to rise toup rise toup to a critical a critical challenge challenge by conceiving by conceiving of it in of aitcertain in a certain way, way, altering altering as- aspectspects of it, of which it, which openopen up new up paths new paths to a solution. to a solution.

Credit Credit does does not not go togo a new to a technology new technology but tobut a human to a human ability. ability.

“Humans “Humans were were the ones the ones who selected who selected the right the right compounds, compounds, who who knewknew whatwhat they they were were doingdoing whenwhen they they gave gave the material the material for the for the model model to learn to learn from,” from,” Barzilay Barzilay explains. explains.

People People defined defithe nedprobthe problem, designed lem, designed the approach, the approach, chosechose the molecules the molecules to train to train the algothe algorithm, rithm, and then and then selected selected the database the database of substances of substances to examine. to examine.

And And once once somesome candidates candidates popped popped up, humans up, humans reapplied reapplied their their biological biological lens to lens understand to understand why it why worked. it worked.

The process The process of finding of finding halicin halicin is more is more thanthan an outstanding an outstanding sci- scientifientifi c breakthrough c breakthrough or a major or a major step toward step toward accelerating accelerating and lowerand lowering the ingcost theof cost drug of drug development. development.

To succeed, To succeed, Barzilay Barzilay and the andteam the team needed needed to harness to harness a form a form of cognitive of cognitive freedom. freedom.

TheyThey didn’t didn’t get the get the idea from idea from a book, a book, fromfrom tradition, tradition, or byor connecting by connecting obvious obvious dots.dots.

TheyThey got itgot by it embracing by embracing a unique a unique cognitive cognitive power power that all that people all people possess. possess.

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Mental Mental Models Models andand the the World World Humans Humans thinkthink usingusing mental mental models. models.

TheseThese are representations are representations of of reality reality that make that make the world the world comprehensible. comprehensible.

TheyThey allowallow us tous seeto see patterns, patterns, predict predict how things how things will unfold, will unfold, and make and make sensesense of theofcirthe circumstances cumstances we encounter. we encounter.

Reality Reality would would otherwise otherwise be a fl be ood a flof ood of information, information, a jumble a jumble of inchoate of inchoate experiences experiences and sensations. and sensations.

Men-Mental models tal models bringbring order.order.

TheyThey let uslet focus us focus on essential on essential things things and and ignore ignore others— others— just as, just atas, a cocktail at a cocktail party,party, we can wehear can the hearconversathe conversation that tion we’re that we’re in while in while tuning tuning out the outchatter the chatter around around us. We us.craft We craft a simulation a simulation of reality of reality in ourinminds our minds to anticipate to anticipate how situations how situations will will play out. play out.

We use Wemental use mental models models all the alltime, the time, even even if we ifare wenot areaware not aware of of them.them.

But there But there are moments are moments whenwhen we are weacutely are acutely conscious conscious of how of how we size weup size a situation, up a situation, and can anddeliberately can deliberately maintain maintain or change or change our our perspective. perspective.

This This oftenoften happens happens whenwhen we need we need to make to make a higha highconsequence consequence decision, decision, such such as whether as whether to switch to switch jobs, jobs, become become a a parent, parent, buy abuy home, a home, closeclose a factory, a factory, or build or build a skyscraper. a skyscraper.

In those In those instances, instances, it canitbecome can become apparent apparent to usto that us our thatdecisions our decisions are not are not simply simply basedbased on the onreasoning the reasoning we apply, we apply, but on butsomething on something moremore foundational: foundational: the particular the particular lens through lens through which which we look we look at the at the situation— situation— our sense our sense of how of the howworld the world works. works.

That That underlying underlying level level of cognition of cognition consists consists of mental of mental models. models.

The fact Thethat factwe that need we need to interpret to interpret the world the world in order in order to exist to exist in it, in it, that how that how we perceive we perceive reality reality colorscolors how how we act wewithin act within it, is someit, is somethingthing that people that people have have long long known known but take but for takegranted. for granted.

It is what It is what mademade Regina Regina Barzilay’s Barzilay’s achievement achievement so impressive. so impressive.

She conceived She conceived of of the problem the problem in theinright the right way. way.

She applied She applied a mental a mental model, model, shifting shifting her focus her focus fromfrom the structure the structure of the ofmolecule the molecule (that(that is, the is,mechathe mechanismnism by which by which it worked) it worked) to itsto function its function (that (that is, whether is, whether it worked it worked

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at all). at all).

By framing By framing the problem the problem differently, differently, she and she the and team the team achieved achieved a discovery a discovery that had thateluded had eluded others. others.

Barzilay Barzilay was awas framer. a framer.

By correctly By correctly framing framing the situation, the situation, she she couldcould unlock unlock new solutions. new solutions.

The mental The mental models models that we thatchoose we choose and apply and apply are frames: are frames: they they determine determine how we how understand we understand and act andinact theinworld. the world.

Frames Frames enable enable us tous generalize to generalize and make and make abstractions abstractions that apply that apply to other to other situa-situations.tions.

WithWith them,them, we can wehandle can handle new situations, new situations, rather rather than than having having to relearn to relearn everything everything fromfrom scratch. scratch.

Our frames Our frames are always are always operating operating in the inbackground. the background.

But we Butcan westop can and stop deliberately and deliberately ask ourselves ask ourselves which which frameframe we are weapplying, are applying, and whether and whether it is the it isbest the fi best t forfithe t for the circumstances. circumstances.

And if And it’s ifnot, it’s we not, can wechoose can choose another another frameframe that is that is better. better.

Or, we Or, can weinvent can invent a newa frame new frame altogether. altogether.

Framing Framing is so fundamental is so fundamental to human to human cognition cognition that even that even thosethose who study who study the workings the workings of theofmind the mind rarelyrarely focused focused on it on until it until rela- relativelytively recently. recently.

Its importance Its importance was overshadowed was overshadowed by other by other mental mental capabilities, capabilities, such such as sensing as sensing and memory. and memory.

But as But people as people have have be- becomecome moremore awareaware of theofneed the need to improve to improve their their decisiondecisionmaking, making, the the role of role frames of frames as fundamental as fundamental to choosing to choosing and acting and acting well well has has moved moved fromfrom the background the background to center to center stage.stage.

We now We now knowknow that that the right the right frameframe applied applied in the inright the right way opens way opens up a up wider a wider rangerange of possibilities, of possibilities, which which in turn in turn leadsleads to better to better choices. choices.

The frames The frames we we employ employ affectaff the ectoptions the options we see, wethe see,decisions the decisions we make, we make, and the andrethe results sults we attain. we attain.

By being By being betterbetter at framing, at framing, we get webetter get better outcomes. outcomes.

ManyMany of society’s of society’s thorniest thorniest problems problems involve, involve, at their at their core, core, a fric-a friction over tion over the way the an way issue an issue is framed. is framed.

Should Should America America buildbuild a walla wall with with otherother countries countries or a bridge? or a bridge?

Should Should Scotland Scotland remain remain within within the United the United Kingdom Kingdom or declare or declare independence? independence?

Should Should China’s China’s “one “one country, country, two systems” two systems” policy policy toward toward HongHong KongKong emphasize emphasize the fithe rst first or lastorpart lastof part that ofphrase? that phrase?

People People can look can at look theatsame the same situation situation and and see diff seeerent different things things because because they they frameframe it diffiterently. differently.

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When When San Francisco San Francisco 49ers49ers quarterback quarterback ColinColin Kaepernick Kaepernick took took a a knee knee during during the national the national anthem anthem in 2016 in 2016 to call toattention call attention to racism to racism and police and police violence, violence, somesome saw itsaw as aitrespectful as a respectful formform of quiet, of quiet, sym-symbolicbolic protest. protest.

AfterAfter all, he all, didn’t he didn’t turn turn his back his back or raise or raise a fist— a fiorst— a or a finger. finger.

Others Others saw itsaw as ait grotesque as a grotesque disrespect disrespect for the forcountry, the country, an an antagonistic antagonistic publicity publicity stuntstunt by a mediocre by a mediocre player player that brought that brought the the culture culture wars wars to one toof one theoffew theareas few areas of American of American life that life hadn’t that hadn’t yet yet beenbeen spoiled spoiled by them. by them.

The argument The argument wasn’t wasn’t over over whatwhat happened happened but what but what it meant. it meant.

It wasIt awas Rorschach a Rorschach test: what test: what people people saw in saw it in it depended depended on what on what frameframe they they brought brought to it. to it.

EachEach frameframe lets us lets seeusthe seeworld the world fromfrom a distinct a distinct vantage vantage point. point.

Frames Frames magnify magnify certain certain elements elements and minimize and minimize others. others.

The capitalThe capitalist frame ist frame shows shows us commercial us commercial opportunity opportunity everywhere; everywhere; the comthe communist munist frameframe reduces reduces everything everything to class to class struggle. struggle.

The industrialist The industrialist lookslooks at a rain at aforest rain forest and sees andtimber sees timber that is that valuable is valuable today, today, whilewhile the the environmentalist environmentalist sees the sees“lungs the “lungs of theofplanet,” the planet,” vital vital for longfor longterm term survival. survival.

Should Should people people be mandated be mandated to wear to wear a mask a mask in public in public amidamid a pandemic? a pandemic?

In theInUnited the United StatesStates thosethose usingusing the health the health frameframe statedstated “yes,“yes, absolutely,” absolutely,” whilewhile thosethose applying applying the freedom the freedom frameframe criedcried “hell“hell no!” Same no!” Same data,data, different different frames, frames, opposite opposite conclusions. conclusions.

Sometimes Sometimes our frames our frames don’tdon’t fit the fitreality the reality to which to which we apply we apply them. them.

ThereThere is no issuch no such thingthing as a “bad” as a “bad” frameframe per seper (save se (save for one for one exception exception that we’ll that we’ll raise raise later),later), but there but there are certainly are certainly casescases of misof misframing, framing, where where a given a given frameframe doesn’t doesn’t fit very fit well. very well.

In fact, In the fact,path the path of human of human progress progress is littered is littered with with the carcasses the carcasses of misused of misused frames. frames.

Take Take the fithe fteenthfifteenthcentury century anatomy anatomy bookbook Fasciculus Fasciculus Medicinae.

Medicinae.

It as- It associated sociated bodybody partsparts with with zodiac zodiac signs— signs— a pleasing a pleasing symmetry symmetry be- between tween the heavens the heavens aboveabove and the andorgans the organs within. within.

But that But frame that frame nevernever curedcured anyone, anyone, and it and wasit cast was aside cast aside as more as more useful useful frames frames camecame along. along.

We make We make similar similar mistakes mistakes in our inown our day. ownIn day.

2008 In 2008 NokiaNokia led the led the

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worldworld in mobile in mobile phone phone sales.sales.

When When AppleApple introduced introduced the iPhone, the iPhone, few thought few thought it would it would take take off. The off. trend The trend was to was make to make handsets handsets smaller smaller and cheaper, and cheaper, but Apple’s but Apple’s was bulkier, was bulkier, pricier, pricier, and buggier. and buggier.

Nokia’s Nokia’s frameframe camecame fromfrom the conservative the conservative telecom telecom industry, industry, valu-valuing practicality ing practicality and reliability. and reliability.

Apple’s Apple’s frameframe camecame fromfrom the breaththe breathlesslylessly innovative innovative computing computing industry, industry, valuing valuing ease of ease useofand use the and the extensibility extensibility of new of features new features via software. via software.

That That frameframe turned turned out toout to be a better be a better fit forfitthe forneeds the needs and wants and wants of consumers— of consumers— and Apple and Apple dominated dominated the market. the market.

Misapplying Misapplying frames frames can have can have horrendous horrendous consequences. consequences.

In the In the 1930s1930s the Soviet the Soviet Union Union followed followed Lysenkoism, Lysenkoism, a theory a theory of plant of plant ge- genetics. netics.

It was It based was based on Marxiston MarxistLeninist Leninist ideology, ideology, not botany. not botany.

Among Among its precepts its precepts was that was crops that crops can be can planted be planted closeclose together together be- because, cause, according according to communist to communist theory, theory, members members of theofsame the same class class live in live solidarity in solidarity and do and not docompete not compete for resources. for resources.

Taking Taking a communist a communist frameframe fromfrom economics economics and applying and applying it to it to farming farming was lunacy, was lunacy, but the butcountry’s the country’s leaders leaders mademade it theitbasis the basis of of theirtheir agriculture agriculture policy. policy.

Its proponent, Its proponent, Trofim Trofi Lysenko, m Lysenko, had the hadfathe favor ofvor Stalin of Stalin himself. himself.

Scientists Scientists who who questioned questioned his fihis ndings findings were were fired,fiimprisoned, red, imprisoned, exiled, exiled, or executed. or executed.

The great The great Russian Russian biologist biologist Nikolai Nikolai Vavilov Vavilov criticized criticized Lysenko’s Lysenko’s science science and was and sentenced was sentenced to to death. death.

As forAsthe forresult the result of Lysenkoism? of Lysenkoism?

Although Although the country the country in- increased creased the area the of area land of land underunder cultivation cultivation a hundredfold, a hundredfold, yieldsyields fell fell as crops as crops died died or rotted. or rotted.

The misapplied The misapplied frameframe contributed contributed to tragic to tragic famines famines that cost thatmillions cost millions of lives. of lives.

If a frame If a frame doesn’t doesn’t fit, the fit,good the good newsnews is that is we that can weuse cana use diffaerent different one, or one, invent or invent a newa and newbetter and better one. Some one. Some new frames new frames are responare responsible sible for worldfor worldchanging changing breakthroughs. breakthroughs.

Darwin’s Darwin’s theory theory of evoluof evolution provided tion provided an explanation an explanation of theoforigins the origins of lifeofwithout life without reliance reliance on religion. on religion.

Similarly, Similarly, Newtonian Newtonian physics physics explained explained the movement the movement of physical of physical objects objects in space in space for centuries, for centuries, but over but over time time therethere were were

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phenomena phenomena that it that couldn’t it couldn’t account account for. Einstein for. Einstein reframed reframed phys-physics byicsshowing by showing that that time,time, long long considered considered constant, constant, is actually is actually relative. relative.

It is easiest It is easiest to seetothe seevalue the value of frames of frames in theinsciences, the sciences, where where they they are (or are at(or least at least should should be) explicit, be) explicit, and where and where researchers researchers document document the mental the mental inputs inputs they they use touse reach to reach theirtheir conclusions. conclusions.

Yet when Yet when it it comes comes to the tovast the challenges vast challenges that humanity that humanity facesfaces today, today, we often we often fail to fail notice to notice which which frames frames we are weapplying. are applying.

Understanding Understanding the the power power of framing of framing in allin domains all domains is vital. is vital.

We need We need to seetoproblems see problems differently differently in order in order to solve to solve them. them.

The centerpiece The centerpiece of our ofresponse our response to our tomost our most difficult diffidilemmas— cult dilemmas— whether whether at theatlevel the level of the ofindithe individual, vidual, community, community, country, country, or indeed or indeed civilization— civilization— lies within lies within us: us: our unique our unique human human ability ability to frame. to frame.

But we But need we need to gettobetter get better at it. This at it. book This book explains explains how. how.

Seeing Seeing What What Isn’tIsn’t There There OverOver the past thefew pastdecades, few decades, a revolution a revolution in cognitive in cognitive psychology psychology and and decision decision theory theory has placed has placed mental mental models models at theatcenter the center of how of peohow people live pleand livethink. and think.

Framing Framing commonly commonly happens happens subconsciously. subconsciously.

But But people people who who consistently consistently makemake goodgood decisions, decisions, or areorinare positions in positions where where they need they need to make to make high-highstakesstakes ones,ones, are aware are aware of framing of framing and and theirtheir ability ability to reframe. to reframe.

This This affects affthe ectsoptions the options they they see and see the and the actions actions they they take. take.

When When a venture a venture capitalist capitalist scrutinizes scrutinizes an investment, an investment, a military a military officer offi thinks cer thinks through through an operation, an operation, or anorengineer an engineer approaches approaches a a technical technical problem, problem, they they have have to frame to frame the issue. the issue.

NeedNeed to decide to decide whether whether to build to build a wind a wind park park in one inlocation one location or another, or another, or goor with go with a solar a solar farm farm instead? instead?

The information The information we gather we gather is only is only part of part theof the decisiondecisionmaking making process. process.

MoreMore important, important, in many in many respects, respects, is how is how one sizes one sizes up the upsituation the situation itself:itself: how one howframes one frames it. it.

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Yet framing Yet framing is notisonly not only for highfor highstakesstakes matters. matters.

It affects It affour ectsevour everyday eryday lives lives as well. as well.

We are Wecontinually are continually confronted confronted with with questions questions that require that require having having a model a model of theofworld the world in ourinmind. our mind.

How How can I can get I get alongalong betterbetter with with my partner? my partner?

How How can I can impress I impress my boss? my boss?

How How can can I rearrange I rearrange my life mytolife be to healthier? be healthier?

And wealthier?

And wealthier?

Framing Framing is justisas just as essential essential for these for these typestypes of questions. of questions.

It undergirds It undergirds our thoughts, our thoughts, affecting affecting whatwhat we perceive we perceive and how and we how think. we think.

By making By making our frames our frames apparent apparent and learning and learning how to how deliberately to deliberately choose choose and apply and apply them,them, we can weimprove can improve our lives our lives and our andworld. our world.

Put simply: Put simply: we can weturn can turn framing framing fromfrom a basic a basic feature feature of human of human cognition cognition into ainto practical a practical tool we tool can weuse cantouse make to make betterbetter decisions. decisions.

Our mind Our mind uses frames uses frames to capture to capture the most the most salient salient aspects aspects of theof the world, world, and fiand lter fi out lterthe outothers— the others— we couldn’t we couldn’t comprehend comprehend life inlife allin all of itsofintricate its intricate complexity complexity otherwise. otherwise.

By mentally By mentally modeling modeling the the world, world, we keep we keep it manageable it manageable and thus and thus actionable. actionable.

In this In sense, this sense, frames frames simplify simplify reality. reality.

But they But they aren’taren’t dumbeddumbeddowndown versions versions of of the world. the world.

TheyThey concentrate concentrate our thinking our thinking on the oncritical the critical parts.parts.

Frames Frames also help also us help to us learn to learn fromfrom singlesingle experiences experiences and come and come up up with with general general rulesrules that we that can weapply can apply to other to other situations— situations— including including ones ones that have that have not yet nothappened. yet happened.

TheyThey enable enable us tous know to know somesomethingthing aboutabout the unobserved the unobserved and even and even the unobservable; the unobservable; to imagine to imagine things things for which for which no data no data exists. exists.

Frames Frames let uslet seeuswhat see what isn’t there. isn’t there.

We can Weask can“What ask “What if?” and if?” foresee and foresee how how different different decisions decisions might might play out. play Itout. is this It isability this ability to envision to envision otherother realities realities that makes that makes pos- possible sible individual individual achievement achievement and societal and societal progress. progress.

Humans Humans have have long long looked looked to thetosky theand skywished and wished to fly.toWe fly.now We now do so— do but so—not butlike notalike bird. a bird.

Yet no Yetamount no amount of data of data and processing and processing power power couldcould have have takentaken a plethora a plethora of bicycle of bicycle partsparts and conceived and conceived of anof airplane, an airplane, as theasWright the Wright brothers brothers did indid 1903. in 1903.

A mental A mental model model was needed; was needed; a frame. a frame.

Likewise, Likewise, humans humans dreamed dreamed of seeing of seeing inside inside the body the body without without cutting cutting the skin. the skin.

And today And today we do, webut do,with but with tech-technologies nologies like Xlike rays, X-rays, not with not with our naked our naked eyes.eyes.

For that For too thatatoo new a new 9

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conceptualization conceptualization was required, was required, a frame a frame for how for to how usetothe useelectrothe electromagnetic magnetic radiation radiation known known as Röntgen as Röntgen rays in rays 1895. in 1895.

SomeSome of theofthings the things we use weevery use every day are daythe areresult the result of changing of changing the way the they way they were were initially initially framed— framed— sometimes sometimes comically comically so. The so. The telephone telephone was fiwas rst thought fi rst thought aboutabout as a way as a to way listen to listen to music to music re- remotely: motely: people people would would dial in dial to in hear to ahear concert. a concert.

The phonograph The phonograph was was considered considered to beto a way be ato way communicate to communicate messages: messages: a company a company presi-president dent might might send send audioaudio memos memos on grooved on grooved cylinders cylinders to fartoflung far-flung managers. managers.

OnlyOnly whenwhen thesethese uses were uses were flipped flipped around around did the didtechthe technologies nologies catchcatch on. Thomas on. Thomas Edison Edison in theinearly the early 1900s1900s believed believed mo- motion tion pictures pictures would would replace replace classrooms— classrooms— a vision a vision only only realized realized a a century century later when later when ZoomZoom became became the new the schoolhouse. new schoolhouse.

The term The term framing framing is well is established well established in the insocial the social sciences. sciences.

The The psychologists psychologists Daniel Daniel Kahneman Kahneman and Amos and Amos Tversky Tversky eloquently eloquently ex- explained plained how how different different characterizations characterizations of outcomes of outcomes influence influence decisiondecisionmaking— making— which which they they calledcalled the “framing the “framing effect,” effect,” and deand described scribed it as aitflas awa in flaw human in human reasoning. reasoning.

Though Though we share we share the same the same term,term, the meaning the meaning here is here somewhat is somewhat different: different: not how not something how something is positioned is positioned but abut deliberate a deliberate act ofact harnessing of harnessing mental mental models models to to elicitelicit options options priorprior to making to making a decision. a decision.

Although Although the misframing the misframing of a situation of a situation can certainly can certainly lead to lead flawed to flawed decisions, decisions, framing framing is a is a valuable valuable and empowering and empowering human human capability. capability.

It letsItus lets make us make sensesense of of the world the world and reshape and reshape it. Weit.would We would not be not who be we who are, weas are, individuas individuals orals as or a species, as a species, without without it. it.

It may It be may tempting be tempting to understand to understand instances instances of reframing of reframing as a paras a paradigm adigm shift;shift; that is, that a fundamental is, a fundamental change change in theinprevailing the prevailing concepts concepts and practices and practices in a domain. in a domain.

In 1962 In 1962 Thomas Thomas Kuhn, Kuhn, a philosopher a philosopher of of science, science, argued argued that paradigm that paradigm shiftsshifts drivedrive scientifi scientifi c progress. c progress.

But the But the comparison comparison is inexact. is inexact.

EveryEvery paradigm paradigm shift shift is a reframing, is a reframing, such such as as whenwhen Copernicus’s Copernicus’s heliocentric heliocentric view view overturned overturned Ptolemy’s Ptolemy’s geocengeocentric model tric model of Earth of Earth and the andsun. the But sun.not Butevery not every reframing reframing is a parais a para-

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digmdigm shift— shift— reframing reframing happens happens comparatively comparatively frequently. frequently.

Sometimes Sometimes it changes it changes society’s society’s concept concept of theofworld; the world; far more far more oftenoften it leads it leads to to somesome smallsmall but signifi but signifi cant cant change change in our inindividual our individual lives.lives.

In each In each case, case, a successful a successful act ofact reframing of reframing leadsleads to better to better decisions. decisions.

Working Working with with frames frames may may sound sound complicated complicated and diffi andcult. difficult.

It It does does require require skill. skill.

Yet humans Yet humans are surprisingly are surprisingly goodgood at it. at Weit.have We have beenbeen doingdoing it for ittens for of tens thousands of thousands of years, of years, even even though though we don’t we don’t always always realize realize it. it.

Frames Frames are more are more thanthan a person’s a person’s individual individual perspective—they perspective—they are cognitive are cognitive templates. templates.

But the Butconcept the concept of perspective of perspective is a useful is a useful metaphor. metaphor.

Before Before the Italian the Italian architect architect Filippo Filippo Brunelleschi Brunelleschi began began drawing drawing with with geometric geometric perspective perspective around around 1420,1420, artists artists painted painted the world the world as flatasand flatpositioned and positioned objects objects relative relative to their to their implied implied im- importance. portance.

Taking Taking their their cue from cue from Brunelleschi, Brunelleschi, artistsartists learned learned to depict to depict depthdepth and draw and draw scenes scenes as they as they actually actually appeared. appeared.

Comparing Comparing pic- picturestures fromfrom before before and after and after this change this change is one is way one to way realize to realize the the potency potency of switching of switching to a new to a frame. new frame.

We are Weall are framers. all framers.

We make We make predictions, predictions, fromfrom the mundane the mundane to to the spectacular. the spectacular.

In this Inway, this we way, constantly we constantly perform perform a sortaof sort mental of mental time-timetravel. travel.

SomeSome of usof areusbetter are better at it than at it than others, others, and there and there are are waysways in which in which we can weall can improve. all improve.

In fact, In we fact, must. we must.

Dreaming Dreaming with with Constraints Constraints Frames Frames help to help doto two dotasks two tasks reallyreally well, well, which which we outline we outline in chapter in chapter 2. First, 2. First, in novel in novel situations situations or when or when circumstances circumstances change, change, our abilour ability toity choose to choose a frame a frame provides provides us with us with new options. new options.

Second, Second, and at and at least least as important, as important, in situations in situations that are thatfamiliar, are familiar, frames frames focusfocus our our mind, mind, thereby thereby reducing reducing our cognitive our cognitive load.load.

It’s an It’s incredibly an incredibly effi- efficientcient way for way usfor to us reach to reach a suitable a suitable decision. decision.

To doTo that do successfully, that successfully,

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threethree elements elements are inare play: in play: causal causal thinking, thinking, our aptitude our aptitude to create to create counterfactuals, counterfactuals, and our andcapacity our capacity to constrain to constrain and shape and shape our imagour imagination ination toward toward a particular a particular goal. goal.

Consider Consider each each element element in turn. in turn.

Chapter Chapter 3 looks 3 looks at causality. at causality.

Humans Humans see the seeworld the world through through the the lens of lens cause of cause and eff and ect. effThis ect. This makes makes the world the world understandable. understandable.

We We can predict can predict in advance in advance whatwhat a given a given action action will provoke will provoke and repeat and repeat it to our it toadvantage. our advantage.

Causal Causal reasoning reasoning is theisfoundation the foundation of ourofcogniour cognition. tion.

Children Children learnlearn to think to think causally causally as they as grow they grow up, and up,thinking and thinking in cause in cause and eff and ecteff has ectenabled has enabled human human societies societies to evolve to evolve over time. over time.

We are Wecausalare causalinference inference engines. engines.

Our causal Our causal inferences inferences are often are often wrong, wrong, because because the world the world is comis complex.plex.

It’s hard It’s hard to suss toout sussall out the allintricacies the intricacies with with the three the three pounds pounds of of spongy spongy fat and fatprotein and protein in our inskulls. our skulls.

We now We now depend depend on scientifi on scientifi c c methodology methodology to prevent to prevent us from us from jumping jumping to causal to causal conclusions conclusions too too quickly— quickly— for example, for example, that performing that performing a special a special dance dance can cause can cause rain to rain fall. to But fall.our Buttendency our tendency to seetocauses see causes everywhere everywhere has ahas valua valuable consequence: able consequence: it gives it gives us a tool us a to tool understand to understand the world the world and to and to placeplace it more it more or less orunder less under our control. our control.

The second The second element element of our ofmental our mental models models is counterfactuals, is counterfactuals, which which we examine we examine in chapter in chapter 4. These 4. These are imagined are imagined alternatives alternatives to to reality; reality; hypotheses hypotheses of a world of a world in which in which one or one several or several things things are are changed. changed.

As with As with causality, causality, we think we think in counterfactuals in counterfactuals all the alltime. the time.

TheyThey comecome naturally naturally to us.to Counterfactuals us. Counterfactuals let uslet escape us escape the cognithe cognitive here tive here and now: and now: we are wenot arelocked not locked into the intoreality the reality before before us—in us—in our mind’s our mind’s eye we eye can weinvent can invent a newa one. new one.

Counterfactual Counterfactual thinking thinking is crucial is crucial to progress. to progress.

People People can envican envision what sion what does does not exist, not exist, as a way as a to way understand to understand the actual the actual worldworld and conceive and conceive of how of how it might it might be diff beerent. different.

We do Wethis do by thisasking by asking what-whatif questions. if questions.

Our imaginings Our imaginings needneed not be not meaningless be meaningless day- daydreams; dreams; they they are an are essential an essential precursor precursor for action, for action, an element an element of ourof our preparation preparation to make to make decisions. decisions.

OftenOften whenwhen we imagine we imagine and visualand visual-

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ize, we ize,are weconjuring are conjuring and assessing and assessing counterfactuals. counterfactuals.

This This is what is what children children do when do when they they engage engage in pretend in pretend play and playwhat and what scientists scientists do when do when they they devise devise experiments. experiments.

Though Though we can we improve can improve the world the world through through counterfactual counterfactual thinking, thinking, it might it might be foolish be foolish to stray to stray too far toointo far the intorealm the realm of theof the unrealistic. unrealistic.

Chapter Chapter 5 introduces 5 introduces the third the third element element of framing, of framing, the the role of role constraints. of constraints.

The right The right constraints constraints help us help to us adjust to adjust our imagour imagination ination so that so our thatcounterfactuals our counterfactuals remain remain actionable, actionable, showing showing us us actions actions that are thatactually are actually possible. possible.

Framing Framing isn’t isn’t an exercise an exercise of folof following lowing flights flights of fancy, of fancy, untethered untethered balloons balloons tossed tossed by the bywind the wind up- upwardward to nowhere. to nowhere.

It’s dreaming It’s dreaming within within limits. limits.

Our counterfactuals Our counterfactuals are useful are useful only only whenwhen they they are bounded. are bounded.

Constraints Constraints act asact theasglue thethat glueholds that holds the mental the mental model model together, together, so that so we that can wethink can think WhatWhat if? inif? a structured in a structured and deliberate and deliberate way. way.

If If we have we have a flatatire flatand tire have and have nevernever changed changed a tireabefore, tire before, we don’t we don’t look look to Starfl to Starfl eet antigravity eet antigravity to help to help us; we us;look we look at theattools the tools we find we find in theintrunk the trunk (say, a(say, car ajack car and jackaand wrench) a wrench) and visualize and visualize how these how these couldcould workwork for us. for us.

TheseThese threethree dimensions dimensions of cognition— of cognition— causality, causality, counterfactucounterfactuals, and als,constraints— and constraints— together together formform the basis the basis of framing. of framing.

TheyThey are are our tools our tools for seeing for seeing beyond beyond the obvious the obvious and thinking and thinking forward. forward.

However, However, sometimes sometimes we need we need to change to change frames, frames, especially especially if theif the context context of a problem of a problem has shifted. has shifted.

Chapter Chapter 6 looks 6 looks at ouratability our ability to to sift through sift through our collection our collection of frames of frames to find toone findthat oneis that better is better suited suited to a situation. to a situation.

Or weOr can werepurpose can repurpose an existing an existing frameframe fromfrom one doone domainmain and use andituse in another— it in another— deliberately deliberately expanding expanding our range our range by by amending amending that frame that frame to fit to a new fit a context new context and goal. and goal.

As weAs gain we experience, gain experience, we develop we develop a repertoire a repertoire of frames of frames and can and can trot out trotaout suitable a suitable one when one when we need we need to, much to, much as good as good pianists pianists have have a repertoire a repertoire of styles of styles that they that they use. Accomplished use. Accomplished musicians musicians can incan instantly stantly find the findunderlying the underlying key, tempo, key, tempo, rhythm, rhythm, and harmony and harmony in a in a

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wide wide variety variety of pieces of pieces they’ve they’ve nevernever heardheard before. before.

This is This theisessence the essence of improvisation. of improvisation.

EachEach genregenre is very is very different, different, with with its own its own set ofset of rules.rules.

It is hard It is hard for a pianist for a pianist to switch to switch fromfrom lovelorn lovelorn Chopin Chopin to Lady to Lady Gaga.Gaga.

But reframing But reframing is as is possible as possible on the onebony the ebony and ivory and ivory as it is as it is in life. in life.

Choosing Choosing among among different different frames frames does does have have its limits, its limits, however. however.

In some In some cases,cases, the right the right frameframe may not mayexist. not exist.

What’s What’s needed needed then then is is an act anofact invention, of invention, to devise to devise a completely a completely new one. new We one.laud We those laud those who create who create entirely entirely new frames, new frames, since,since, whenwhen successful, successful, they end theyup end up changing changing the world. the world.

How How we can we become can become better better framers framers is explained is explained in chapter in chapter 7.

7.

Learning Learning this skill this depends skill depends on embracing on embracing a diversity a diversity of frames. of frames.

We We offer off three er three strategies strategies to achieve to achieve this: this: expanding expanding our repertoire, our repertoire, de- developing veloping our curiosity our curiosity through through a process a process we call we“cognitive call “cognitive forag-foraging,” ing,” and ifand all else if allfails, else fails, having having the courage the courage to leap tointo leapthe intocognitive the cognitive unknown. unknown.

Chapter Chapter 8 considers 8 considers the importance the importance of framing of framing for communities, for communities, countries, countries, and civilization and civilization writ large. writ large.

The goal The is goal pluralism: is pluralism: fosterfostering and ingcelebrating and celebrating differences, differences, instead instead of aspiring of aspiring to a homogenous to a homogenous way of way seeing of seeing the world. the world.

We need We need to promote to promote the “colorful,” the “colorful,” not benot believe lieve that we that achieve we achieve somesome formform of valor of valor by deliberately by deliberately making making our- ourselvesselves “color“colorblind.” blind.”

WhatWhat we cannot we cannot allowallow are frames are frames that that denydeny the existence the existence of of otherother frames frames (the sole (the exception sole exception to the toidea the that idea there that there are no arebad no bad frames). frames).

Uniformity Uniformity of mental of mental models models is what is what crushes crushes human human prog-progress. ress.

It makes It makes people people no wiser no wiser thanthan automata automata that perpetuate that perpetuate the the past because past because they they cannot cannot see beyond see beyond the present. the present.

If ourIfframes our frames can- cannot coexist, not coexist, how can howwe? can we?

The true The heroes true heroes of human of human framing framing do not dolive notin live palaces, in palaces, man-manage big age companies, big companies, or teach or teach at fancy at fancy universities. universities.

TheyThey are allare around all around us—indeed, us—indeed, they are they us. are Asus. individuals, As individuals, our framing our framing matters matters because because

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it shapes it shapes our lives. our lives.

But for But humanity, for humanity, whatwhat matters matters is theisrichness the richness of of the mental the mental models models we collectively we collectively possess. possess.

Pundits Pundits oftenoften suggest suggest that people that people mustmust comecome together together and converge and converge on a on perspective a perspective to to meetmeet pressing pressing challenges. challenges.

But itBut is quite it is quite the opposite: the opposite: our power our power lies lies in theindiff theerence difference of human of human frames frames and in and ourinability our ability to seeto the seeworld the world fromfrom a myriad a myriad of angles. of angles.

OnlyOnly if we if tap wethe tapbreadth the breadth of human of human frames frames can we candevise we devise the original the original solutions solutions we will we need will need to survive to survive as a as a species. species.

TheThe Machine Machine andand the the Mob Mob BeliefBelief in theinvalue the value and power and power of framing of framing is under is under threat. threat.

Around Around the the world, world, people people are losing are losing conficonfi dencedence in humanity’s in humanity’s cognitive cognitive abilities, abilities, and turning and turning to solutions to solutions that deny that deny the role theof role mental of mental models. models.

On one On one side are side those are those who place who place their their faith faith in theinmachine, the machine, and on and the onother the other are those are those who accept who accept the rough the rough justice justice and easy and answers easy answers of theofmob. the mob.

The hyperThe hyperrationalists, rationalists, who who embrace embrace facts facts and value and value reason, reason, represent represent the fithe rst side. first side.

TheyThey believe believe we can werely canexclusively rely exclusively on data on data and algorithms and algorithms to solve to solve our myriad our myriad problems, problems, and are andtempted are tempted to to bypass bypass human human framing framing for artifi for cial artifiintelligence. cial intelligence.

TheyThey are not arejust notajust a handful handful of geeks of geeks waiting waiting for the for“singularity,” the “singularity,” the moment the moment whenwhen computers computers are smarter are smarter than than people. people.

A growing A growing cohort cohort lookslooks to techto technology nology to deliver to deliver exactly exactly the kind the kind of detached, of detached, objective objective superrasuperrational tional decisiondecisionmaking making that that people people seemseem to betoincapable be incapable of. For of. For them, them, therethere is noisdoubt no doubt that that humans humans will remain will remain in the inseat the of seat of power power but that but everyday that everyday judgments judgments will be will handled be handled by machines. by machines.

NeedNeed to drive to drive to Delhi? to Delhi?

FightFight crimecrime in Berlin? in Berlin?

Deliver Deliver groceries groceries in Wuhan? in Wuhan?

There’s There’s an algorithm an algorithm for that. for that.

As the Astechnology the technology evolves, evolves, manymany look to look AI to to AI remedy to remedy socialsocial ills that illspeople that people have have shown shown themthemselvesselves to beto unable be unable to address. to address.

This,This, they they hope,hope, will lead will humanity lead humanity

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out ofout ourofcurrent our current irrational irrational darkness darkness and ensure and ensure the victory the victory of reaof reason. son.

Supporters Supporters laud laud AI for AIits forpotential its potential to take to take awayaway decisiondecisionmaking making fromfrom humans humans and place and place it in the it incomputer. the computer.

Equally Equally vocalvocal are the areemotionalists, the emotionalists, who who argueargue the opposite: the opposite: that humanity that humanity has been has been suffering suffering fromfrom too much too much rationality, rationality, too too muchmuch reliance reliance on data, on data, and cold, and cold, merciless, merciless, analytical analytical reasoning. reasoning.

TheyThey believe believe that humanity’s that humanity’s core problem core problem is notistoo notmuch too much passion passion but too butlittle; too little; that we thatare wesuff areering suffering because because we dowe not dorely notenough rely enough on our on gut our and gut our and instincts. our instincts.

TheyThey long long for collective for collective bonding bonding in communities in communities of similarof similarminded minded folks,folks, and for andclear for clear distinctions distinctions and boundaries and boundaries with with “others” “others” who who do not dobelong. not belong.

The appeal The appeal to to emotional emotional rootsroots is a call is ato call accept to accept irrationality irrationality as a core as a quality core quality of of humanness. humanness.

We see We this seephenomenon this phenomenon on both on both the right the right and the andleft, thein left, indusin industrialized trialized democracies democracies as well asas well developing as developing countries. countries.

It is associated It is associated with with right-rightwingwing populists, populists, who who prefer prefer decisive decisive action action over over long-longstanding standing processes processes to weigh to weigh evidence. evidence.

Governance Governance is a feeling; is a feeling; lead- leadership ership is an emotion; is an emotion; decisions decisions are made are made fromfrom an innate an innate sensesense of theof the rightness rightness of one’s of one’s beliefs. beliefs.

Yet itYet alsoitcrops also crops up inup theinsocial the social sphere sphere on on the left, the when left, when activists activists wish wish to silence to silence critics critics of their of their worldview worldview or or delegitimize delegitimize others others with with whom whom they they disagree. disagree.

Though Though the increasing the increasing power power of AI of is new, AI is new, we have we have beenbeen dealing dealing with with this basic this basic struggle struggle for centuries. for centuries.

The tension The tension between between reason reason and emotion, and emotion, artifiartifi ce and cenature, and nature, deliberation deliberation and gut andinstinct gut instinct has has shaped shaped how we how order we order our lives our and livesgovern and govern our societies. our societies.

In theIn1600s the 1600s the French the French philosopher philosopher and mathematician and mathematician RenéRené Descartes Descartes advo-advocatedcated for a life for aoflife rationality, of rationality, order,order, and evidence. and evidence.

Parisian Parisian parksparks that that are laid areout laidinout perfect in perfect symmetry symmetry remind remind us of us hisofinfl hisuence. influence.

A century A century later Jeanlater JeanJacques Jacques Rousseau Rousseau urgedurged a diffaerent different approach, approach, one of one trust of trust in feelings in feelings and intuition, and intuition, and of and looking of looking to the toinner the inner self for selfanswers: for answers: “All the “Allevil theIevil everI did everin did myinlife mywas lifethe wasresult the result of of reflection,” reflection,” he wrote. he wrote.

“And“And the little the little goodgood I have I have beenbeen able to able doto do 16

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was the wasresult the result of impulse.” of impulse.”

It is aItworld is a world of inklings, of inklings, passions, passions, and and appetites— appetites— wild fi wild ts offifury ts of perfectly fury perfectly excusable excusable as expressions as expressions of one’s of one’s humanity. humanity.

When When British British and American and American landscapers landscapers makemake urban urban parksparks resemble resemble rambling rambling nature, nature, it is an it isunwitting an unwitting nod to nod Rousto Rousseau’sseau’s outlook. outlook.

The same The same dichotomy dichotomy played played out in out twentiethin twentiethcentury century business. business.

Frederick Frederick Taylor’s Taylor’s influential influential theory theory of scientific of scientific management management aimed aimed to quantify to quantify everyevery aspect aspect of a company’s of a company’s operations. operations.

ManagManagers armed ers armed with with stopwatches stopwatches and clipboards and clipboards paraded paraded the factory the factory floor flto oor ensure to ensure productivity. productivity.

Yet the Yetcentury the century ended ended with with the celethe celebrated brated success success of GE’s of GE’s voluble voluble chiefchief executive executive Jack Welch, Jack Welch, whose whose business business autobiography autobiography was aptly was aptly subtitled subtitled Straight Straight from from the Gut. the Gut. ThereThere is a certain is a certain feeling feeling of authenticity of authenticity in the inrejection the rejection of linof linear, factear,fifactlledfirationality lled rationality for the forjoyous, the joyous, human human embrace embrace of emotion of emotion in decisionin decisionmaking. making.

Not everything Not everything can be can reduced be reduced to a number to a number or or a formula a formula in logic. in logic.

But this But ethos this ethos cannot cannot solvesolve problems— problems— it canit can only only glorify glorify them. them.

It canIt tear can down tear down but not butconstruct. not construct.

OverOver the the past half past century, half century, psychologists psychologists and behavioral and behavioral economists economists have have amassed amassed a mountain a mountain of experimental of experimental evidence evidence showing showing the inferithe inferiority,ority, in most in most cases,cases, of decisions of decisions driven driven by the bygut. the Relying gut. Relying on inon instinctstinct may may give us give a warm us a warm feeling feeling of doing of doing whatwhat feels feels right.right.

But itBut it fails to fails deliver to deliver a viable a viable strategy strategy to solve to solve the challenges the challenges we face. we face.

Meanwhile Meanwhile AI may AI make may make betterbetter decisions decisions than than people people and steal and steal our jobs, our jobs, but computers but computers and algorithms and algorithms cannot cannot frame. frame.

AI is brilliant AI is brilliant at answering at answering whatwhat it is asked; it is asked; framers framers pose pose questions questions nevernever before before voiced. voiced.

Computers Computers workwork only only in a world in a world that exists; that exists; humans humans live in live in ones ones they they imagine imagine through through framing. framing.

Consider Consider the computer’s the computer’s shortcomings shortcomings in the invery the very arenaarena where where it is usually it is usually fetedfeted for itsfor excellence: its excellence: boardboard games. games.

EvenEven people people who who are familiar are familiar with with this story this story extract extract the wrong the wrong lesson. lesson.

In 2018 In 2018 Google Google DeepMind DeepMind unveiled unveiled a system a system called called AlphaZero AlphaZero that learned that learned to win toat win chess, at chess, Go, and Go,shogi and shogi purely purely by playing by playing against against 17

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itself,itself, with with zero human zero human inputinput otherother thanthan the rules. the rules.

AfterAfter just nine just nine hours, hours, during during which which it played it played itselfitself in fortyin fortyfour million four million games games of of chess, chess, it was it beating was beating the world’s the world’s best best chesschess program, program, Stockfi Stockfi sh. sh.

When When grandmasters grandmasters played played against against it, they it, were they were amazed amazed by itsby alien its alien approach. approach.

For over For aover century a century chesschess experts experts had ahad settled a settled consensus consensus on basic on basic concepts concepts and strategies, and strategies, such such as theasvalue the value of pieces of pieces or board or board position. position.

AlphaZero AlphaZero mademade radical radical moves, moves, privileging privileging mobility mobility over over position, position, and feeling and feeling no reluctance no reluctance to make to make sacrifi sacrifi ces. AlphaZero ces. AlphaZero seemed seemed to have to have conceived conceived of anof entirely an entirely new strategy new strategy for the forgame. the game.

Only,Only, it hadn’t. it hadn’t.

An AIAn system AI system cannot cannot conceive conceive of anything. of anything.

It cannot It cannot concoct concoct mental mental models. models.

It canItneither can neither generalize generalize nor explain. nor explain.

AlphaZero AlphaZero is is a black a black box—box— for usfor and us for anditself. for itself.

It wasItpeople, was people, not AI, notwho AI, who couldcould look look at theatmoves the moves and develop and develop the concepts the concepts of “board of “board position” position” or or “sacrifi “sacrifi ce.” Humans ce.” Humans frameframe AlphaZero’s AlphaZero’s actions, actions, making making themthem ex- explainable plainable and applying and applying themthem generally. generally.

Humans Humans become become smarter smarter because because we can weabstract can abstract AI’s accomplishments.

AI’s accomplishments.

Appreciating Appreciating and and applying applying the lessons the lessons is something is something that AI that cannot AI cannot do ondo itson own. its own.

BothBoth the rationalists the rationalists and the andemotionalists the emotionalists correctly correctly identify identify something something unique unique aboutabout human human cognition. cognition.

But both But both lead to lead dead to dead ends.ends.

Neither Neither offersoff a ers suitable a suitable answer answer to our to civilizational our civilizational chal-challenges. lenges.

Nor can Norwe can expect we expect muchmuch fromfrom a synthesis a synthesis of theoftwo. the Amaltwo. Amalgamating gamating two approaches two approaches built built on unsound on unsound foundations, foundations, at best, at best, will simply will simply maintain maintain a fragile a fragile tension tension without without hopehope of real ofprogress. real progress.

The crucial The crucial insight insight is that is our thatchoice our choice isn’t isn’t limited limited to these to these two two options. options.

We do We not dohave not have to decide to decide between between a dehumanizing a dehumanizing singusingularitylarity or a tsunami or a tsunami of populist of populist terror— terror— nor try nortotry meld to meld themthem into ainto a suboptimal suboptimal mix. mix.

We have We have at ouratdisposal our disposal another another strategy, strategy, a diffaerdifferent human ent human capacity capacity that until that until now now has been has been overlooked: overlooked: framing. framing.

Our ability Our ability to apply, to apply, hone,hone, and reinvent and reinvent mental mental models models provides provides us us with with the means the means to solve to solve our problems our problems without without deferring deferring to thetomathe machinechine or accepting or accepting the mob. the mob.

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