Essendon assistant coach Dean Wallis helping AFL with investigation into allegations relating to betting on AFL matches.
OPINION
Forget wins and losses, percentage is the key ASHLEY BROW NE
T
he final few rounds of the 2011 season were full of talk about the ‘F-word’, both ‘finals’ and ‘Fevola’. But refreshingly absent was the ‘T’ word, as in ‘tanking’— save for a brief flurry when Dean Bailey said his farewells from Melbourne. The AFL has flagged an examination of how the priority pick is allocated—if at all— after the end of next season. It barely even rated a mention in the days before last Sunday’s Port Adelaide-Melbourne clash, despite the prospect of better draft selections at both the NAB AFL Draft in November and the pre-season draft the following month for the Power—if it lost to the Demons and remained on the bottom of the ladder. Perhaps the lack of passion in the discussions this season was because the draft pool has been compromised this year with the incoming Greater Western Sydney Giants gaining access to the pick of the 17-year-olds at the end of last season and nine of the first 15 selections at November’s draft. Or perhaps it could be because both Gold Coast and Port (which both qualified for priority picks by virtue of finishing with less than four wins) are considered in need of a priority draft selection at the start of the second round of November’s draft. On exposed form in 2011, it is hard to argue against both clubs being given just that little bit of extra assistance. (Interestingly, without considering the potential for trades, Gold Coast will have had nine of the first 29 picks of the first rounds of 2010 and 2011, the second pick of the second round of 2011 and the first pick at the 2012 pre-season draft—that surely is some foundation for long-term success.) As it turned out, Port got the win against the Demons, meaning it gets pick six instead of pick four at the draft and loses the opportunity to lead the bidding for the four elite 17-year-olds the Giants are 20
AFL RECORD
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HOT PROPERTY: After
securing a priority pick in the 2007 draft, Carlton selected star young big man Matthew Kreuzer.
Percentage can tell you how well, or diabolically, they are going TED HOPKINS ON THE IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE AS A TEAM INDICATOR
allowed to list and then trade to other clubs in exchange for experienced players or further draft picks. But not many commentators ventured forward to suggest that Port should have deliberately lost the match in order to be better placed for the end-of-year player movements. Perhaps that’s because the result only changed Port’s place in the draft order; the priority pick was already set in stone. But we’re not all that far removed from the days when the awarding of priority selections— and the means by which they were earned—was hotly debated. The Melbourne-Carlton game of round 22, 2007, is the
obvious case in point. In 2008, West Coast was awarded a priority selection after finishing with four wins and a percentage of 65.88. Just one year before, the Eagles had finished the home and away season in the top four. The year before that, they won the premiership. Although it seemed at the time almost outrageous that West Coast would fall away so quickly that it needed the priority pick, those who make it their business to analyse the numbers behind the AFL, mount a case to suggest the pick—which the Eagles wisely used to select Luke Shuey—was warranted. Data analyst and AFL Record columnist Ted Hopkins
has long argued that ladder percentage is a better indicator of team’s performance than pure wins and losses. “It’s a good measure of a team’s ability to score and defend over a period of time,” he says. “A team might get a couple of lucky wins during a season and that can inflate how well they’re going. But percentage can tell you how well, or diabolically, they are going.” Hopkins argues that a percentage of 70 is the tipping point—the mark that defines a team in need. It means over the course of a season, a team is (on average) about five goals worse than its opponent each week.
I
n Hopkins’ eyes, this is getting into what he calls the “basket case” category and worthy of special assistance. Both Port, with a final percentage of 64.51 and the Suns (56.27) would still easily qualify for the priority