54 Table 4.2. Effects of a transfer to a podcar system now and in 2040 (in SEK millions). Share of podcar journeys Benefits of shorter journey a times by train Benefits of shorter journey a times by car & bus b Reduced CO2-emissions c Fewer fatal accidents d Reduced NOx-emissions Total economic benefits (SEK millions)
Now 100% 1 160
100% 1 792
2040 50% 25% 896 448
3 612
5 580
2 790
1395
558
1 043 842 261 6,918
1 043 842 261 9,518
521 421 131 4,759
261 210 65 2,379
104 84 26 951
10% 179
a) Time value SEK75/hour b) Average emissions100 g/kilometre travelled c) 5,5 deaths per billion kilometres travelled d) average emissions 0,5g/fkm
Costs We assume that in 2040 there will exist local podcar systems in some municipalities, such as Stockholm, Södertälje, Uppsala, Eskilstuna and Västerås. This means that previous experience of podcars will exist and that there is a production capacity to build podcar systems. If so, it is reasonable to assume a lower construction cost in 2040 than the SEK100 million per kilometre we estimate for 2020. Therefore, we assume that for the podcar system in the Mälardalen region the construction cost will be approximately SEK75 million per km for twin track. The total network is about 470 km long, which means a total construction cost of approximately SEK35 billion. Discounted over a period of 40 years and with 4% interest, this would correspond to an annual cost of SEK1.78 billion (table 4.3). Table 4.3. Fixed costs for twin track high-speed (>200 km/hr) podcar network connecting the Stockholm-Mälardalen Region. 108 km Västerås-Enköping-Stockholm C 80 km Eskilstuna-Strängnäs-Södertälje 45 km Uppsala Syd-Enköping 60 km Uppsala Syd-Stockholm C 27 km Västerås-Eskilstuna (excl. high-level bridge) 36 km Stockholm C - Södertälje 44 km Stockholm (Fittja – Barkarby – Häggvik) 35 km Enköping – Strängnäs 35 km Arlanda – Bålsta Total track cost 470 km at SEK75 million per km = SEK35.2 billion Annuity* = SEK1.78 billion per annum 1 High-level/suspension bridge Eskilstuna-Västerås = SEK2 billion 11 termini @ SEK200million = SEK2.2 billion 8 vehicle depots (8*600 vehicles) @ SEK225 million = SEK1.8 billion 10 small stations @ SEK150 million = SEK1.5 billion Total sundry fixed costs: =SEK7.5 billion Annuity* =SEK0.38 billion per annum
*Discounting factor 19.793 (40 years, 4 percent)
SIKA Rapport 2008:5