C40 / Siemens City Climate Leadership Conference September 5, 2013
1
A Stronger, More Resilient New York
On June 11, 2013, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg launched A Stronger, More Resilient New York. The result of 6 months of intensive work by full-time professionals coming from various backgrounds, supported by numerous academic, private and public sector partners, the plan contains: • • •
2
Analysis and recommendations built on the best available science Over 250 initiatives Citywide metrics and milestones to promote accountability
Agenda
3
Overview The Risks We Face Priorities and Solutions The Path Forward
Overview To address the risks of climate change, the Administration has developed a plan that adheres to four core principles.
1
Be ambitious, but seek achievability Can be significantly more resilient Aim for the stars, but do not fail to launch
2
Acknowledge resource limits, but seek to stretch resources Maximize benefits per dollar (including non-monetary benefits, such as to vulnerable populations) Leverage existing resources to increase return on investment
3
Create multiple defensive layers (reduce impacts, while allowing faster recovery) First Layer: Coastal defenses (less flooding; less impact) Second Layer: Buildings (less serious damage; faster rehabilation) Third Layer: Infrastructure and critical systems (fewer outages; faster restoration)
4
In impacted areas, do not abandon the waterfront (rebuild and, where possible, improve) Fight for coastal neighborhoods
4 CONFIDENTIAL
Overview The plan covers many at-risk areas, including:
5
Citywide Systems andand Infrastructure Citywide Systems Infrastructure
Impacted Communities Impacted Communities
Coastal Protection Buildings Insurance Utilities Liquid Fuels Healthcare Telecommunications Transportation Parks Water and Wastewater Food Supply Solid Waste Economic Recovery Community Preparedness and Response Environmental Protection and Remediation
Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront East and South Shores of Staten Island South Queens Southern Brooklyn Southern Manhattan
Overview Development of the plan devoted significant energy to outreach to elected officials, community groups and the public. Outreach Mechanism
Elected Officials
Organizations
Public Workshops
SIRR presentation and Q&A
SIRR presentation and Q&A
Metric
Status
# of collective/individual briefings
30+
# of elected offices briefed
65+
# of community boards briefed
~20
# of community-based, business, environmental, faith, labor, policy organizations briefed
320+
SIRR overview and # of public workshops facilitated discussion # of attendees
11 1,000+
Result: A Quinnipiac poll (June 27, 2013) indicated that 74% of New Yorkers support this plan.
6
Agenda
7
Overview The Risks We Face Priorities and Solutions The Path Forward
The Risks We Face Sandy demonstrated that New York is even more vulnerable than previously thought… FEMA 1983 Flood Maps vs. Sandy Inundation Area
The 100-year floodplain as mapped in 1983 today includes about: ̶ 218,000 residents ̶ 214,000 jobs ̶ 36,000 buildings ̶ 377MSF of floor area Share Outside 100-Year Floodplain > 1/3 of substantially damaged or destroyed buildings ~ 1/2 of impacted residential units
Source: FEMA (MOTF 11/6 Hindcast surge extent)
100-Year Floodplain (FEMA 1983 Maps) Sandy Inundation Area
8
> 1/2 of impacted buildings
The Risks We Face ‌This greater vulnerability was shown in June 2013 updated flood maps from FEMA that built on work which had been begun before Sandy. FEMA June 2013 Preliminary Work Maps (PWMs)
100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN* 1983 FIRMs
2013 PWMs
Change (%)
Residents
218,000
398,000
82%
Jobs
214,000
271,000
27%
Buildings
36,000
68,000
89%
Floor Area (SF)
377M
534M
42%
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Source: FEMA
100-Year Floodplain: A Zone (FEMA 2013 PWMs) 500-Year Floodplain (FEMA 2013 PWMs)
9
The Risks We Face Flooding from coastal storms, though, is only one of the pieces of the city’s climate risk puzzle.
10
Heavy Downpours
Heat Waves
Drought
Sea Level Rise
The Risks We Face The NYC Panel on Climate Change updated its 2009 analysis of how climate change might impact New York, including chronic hazards…
CHRONIC HAZARDS
Baseline (19712000)
2020s
2050s
Middle Range High End (25th-75th (90th percentile) percentile) Average Temperature Precipitation Sea Level Rise¹
Middle Range (25th-75th percentile)
High End (90th percentile)
54ºF
+2.0ºF to 2.8ºF
+3.2ºF
+4.1ºF to 5.7ºF
+6.6ºF
50.1 in.
+1% to 8%
+10%
+4% to 11%
+13%
0
¹ Baseline period for sea level rise projections is 2000-2004.
+4 to 8 in.
+11 in.
+11 to 24 in.
+31 in.
Source: NPCC; for more details, see Climate Risk Information 2013
These sea level rise projections have been incorporated into NOAA’S coastal flood risk mapping tool and USACE’s recently released storm surge calculator.
11
NPCC is extending projections out to the 2100s
Sea levels likely to rise 1-2 ft. and could rise by > 2 ½ ft. (on top of 1 ft. since 1900)
The Risks We Face …And the impact with regard to extreme events.
EXTREME EVENTS
Heat Waves and Cold Events Intense Precipitation
Coastal Floods at the Battery¹
Baseline (19712000)
2050s
Middle Range (25th-75th percentile)
High End (90th percentile)
Middle Range (25th-75th percentile)
High End (90th percentile)
Days per year > 90ºF
18
26 to 31
33
39 to 52
57
Heat waves per year
2
3 to 4
4
5 to 7
7
Days per year with rainfall > 2 in.
3
3 to 4
5
4
5
Future annual frequency of today’s 100year flood
1.0%
1.2% to 1.5%
1.7%
1.7% to 3.2%
5.0%
Flood heights from a 100year flood (feet above NAVD88)
15.0
15.3 to 15.7
15.8
15.9 to 17.0
17.6
¹ Baseline period for sea level rise projections is 2000-2004.
12
2020s
# of 90+ degree days could double (or triple), to current level of Birmingham, AL
Source: NPCC; for more details, see Climate Risk Information 2013
The Risks We Face Using the NPCC projections, the City, with the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, developed maps showing how floodplains will expand by the 2050s. FEMA PWMs, with 2020s and 2050s Floodplain Growth
100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN* 2013 PWMs
2050s Projected
Change (%)
Residents
398,000
801,000
101%
Jobs
271,000
430,000
59%
Buildings
68,000
114,000
68%
Floor Area (SF)
534M
855M
60%
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Source: FEMA; CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities
100-Year Floodplain (FEMA 2013 PWMs) 100-Year Floodplain (Projected 2020s) 100-Year Floodplain (Projected 2050s)
13
The Risks We Face Working with Swiss Re, the City also was able to quantify how climate change might affect the monetary impacts and frequency of damaging storms Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s
â–Ş Likelihood of a
$B
$19B storm (like Sandy) will grow 17% by the 2020s and 40% by the 2050s
â–Ş Likely cost of ~$90B
~$35B ~$19B
1/50
1/60
1/70
Likelihood of Damage (%) (1/50 = 50-year loss event)
14
damage from a 1/70-year lossevent (like Sandy) will grow to $35B by the 2020s and $90B by the 2050s (in current dollars)
The Risks We Face In short, even if unlikely to recur in precisely the same way, the experience of Sandy served as a conversation changer for all New Yorkers.
Though New York has always been vulnerable to coastal flooding…
…Sandy and FEMA’s flood maps show this vulnerability to be greater than previously understood…
…The NPCC’s work shows that not only is this vulnerability likely to grow with climate change, but that it also will involve more than just coastal storms…
…While the analysis by Swiss Re is likely to show a real cost of inaction
The City must start taking steps immediately to address its long-term challenges
15
Agenda
16
Overview The Risks We Face Priorities and Solutions The Path Forward
CONFIDENTIAL
Priorities and Solutions The first layer of the Administration’s plan focuses on coastal defenses, especially those that proved to be effective during Sandy or have been proven elsewhere. Select Defenses That Have Proved Effective
Nourished beaches and dunes
Increased elevation and berms
Newer and elevated drainage systems
Wave attenuation systems
Tidal barriers along inland waterways
With Dune Protection – Beach 48th Street
After Sandy
Effectiveness confirmed via international and US due diligence, consultations with engineering firms, hydrodynamic modeling, etc.
17 CONFIDENTIAL
Priorities and Solutions The plan calls for a first phase of coastal protection projects that is relatively affordable and focuses initially on those areas that are most vulnerable... Coastline Risk “Heat Map” Priority is areas with:
18 CONFIDENTIAL
Highest storm surge probability
Most building square footage
Most critical infrastructure
Most vulnerable populations
Priorities and Solutions The second layer of the Administration’s plan includes detailed recommendations for protecting the City’s building stock… Proposals Strengthen City building code to increase flood and wind resiliency for new buildings For 68K existing buildings in floodplain, $1.2B retrofit incentive for protection of building systems Funds reserved for small homes, affordable housing, each borough Mandate key system protection for the largest buildings in the city by 2030
19 CONFIDENTIAL
Priorities and Solutions The third layer of the plan includes strengthening the City’s critical infrastructure and systems, including making the City’s energy networks more resilient. Proposals Work with and call on utilities to: Harden existing infrastructure to increase flood and heat resiliency Reconfigure networks for greater redundancy Call on regulators to reflect climate risk in system designs and to include extreme weather when evaluating performance Work to reduce energy demand and increase energy options for City consumers
20 CONFIDENTIAL
Agenda
Overview The Risks We Face Priorities and Solutions The Path Forward
21 CONFIDENTIAL
The Path Forward
Implementation of the Administration’s plan will require interagency coordination, overseen by a new Director of Resiliency. Director of Resiliency will report to Head of OLTPS and oversee agency coordination
Administration is seeking legislation to: Enshrine structure Have OLTPS update plan every 4 yrs. Have OLTPS include resiliency indicators in annual updates
22 CONFIDENTIAL
The Path Forward: Implementation and Funding The Administration will make significant progress on its plan before year-end, with a structure and funding sources in-place allowing the plan to advance thereafter.
Plan is largely funded…
Implementation has begun…
23 CONFIDENTIAL
• 10-yr. cost: $19.5B $10B in-hand (City capital and federal sources) $5B reasonably likely (mostly federal sources) Strategies for remaining $4.5B (including up to $1B in City capital)
• Nearly 60 concrete steps by YE2013 Launch studies Begin design work Begin construction Secure additional funding Amend key regulations and laws
C40 / Siemens City Climate Leadership Conference September 5, 2013
24 CONFIDENTIAL