Commerce Industry Inventory Report 2012

Page 24

2012 Commerce & Industry Inventory

San Francisco Employment by Land Use Category

600,000

120,000

500,000

100,000

400,000

80,000

300,000

60,000

200,000

40,000

100,000

20,000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Office CIE

Retail PDR Hotel

Employment Trends

PDR Counterpoint

The composition and changes in employment are an important window on San Francisco’s economic vitality. Employment in San Francisco rose and fell over the last 10 years. From a low of 523,000 jobs in 2003 and 2004, employment rose 9.1% to 571,000 jobs in 2008 at the height of the speculative financial bubble. The global recession caused employment to slip 4.5% to 546,000 jobs in 2010. However, after showing signs of recovery in 2011, employment in San Francisco grew 5% in 2012, to 586,250 jobs, the highest it’s been in a decade.

Because the change in jobs between 2003 and 2012 reflects the substantial twin effects of the dot.com crash (2000) and the global recession (2007-2009), it may overstate longer-term PDR job loss in San Francisco. As a result, it is instructive to examine both the 2003-12 decline in PDR jobs and the 2006-07 increase by sector, as illustrated in the PDR Jobs by Sector table below.

As the San Francisco Employment by Land Use Category graphs illustrate, jobs in the office, retail, hotel, and private household land use categories followed a pattern similar to total jobs: a peak in 2008 and troughs in 2004 and 2010. In contrast, CIE jobs increased relatively consistently over the whole period.1 PDR jobs declined early in the period, posted minor gains in 2007 (4% over 2006), and declined further after the financial crisis in late 2008. PDR jobs stabilized after 2010, and, mirroring the larger economy, grew by 4% in 2012.

PDR Jobs by Sector Industry Group

2003-12

2006-07

Construction

-17%

12%

Transportation

-25%

-1%

Utilities

-18%

-26%

Information

-29%

35%

Wholesale

-6%

5%

Food Manufacturing

-21%

-4%

Apparel Manufacturing

-68%

-10%

Printing & Publishing

-8%

4%

Other Manufacturing

2%

23%

-19%

4%

TOTAL 1. CIE employment from 2002-2008 estimated based on the share of private household to total CIE employment in years 2009-2011.

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