Local could be at the high end of the forecast range (4.0%), even as the market consensus continues to anticipate less robust growth on the order of 3.3% during the current year and 3.45% in 2013 (according to the latest Banamex survey released the previous week). This shift in outlook appears somewhat abrupt, especially considering that during the previously monthly review of monetary policy (January 20), the bank warned that the economic-growth balance of risks had further deteriorated since the previous policy assessment at the same time as the balance of inflation risks had remained in neutral. This combination of declining inflation and a stronger economic growth outlook do not necessarily favor the idea of a cut in the monetary policy interest rate, as discussed in the banks last policy review, especially if we consider the narrowing of the output gap could lead to an overheating of the economy. In that sense, it isn’t the same to expect an improving economic scenario when there is a wide output gap than when one determines that the gap has narrowed so much as to have almost closed, a situation in which the bank would be wise to tread lightly given the threat of an overheating of the economy. The benign inflation data contained in recent bi-weekly reports has favored a lowering of year-end inflation
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estimates, but we should keep in mind that the positive tenor of those reports were largely the result of falling prices for some widely consumed fruits and vegetables, but not only as a correction of the uptrend of a year earlier but also as an overreaction to price adjustments so we should not be surprised by an upward adjustment in the coming months. In this regard we should mention that tomato prices, for example, fell to one of their lowest levels in the past ten years during February (they were only lower in February 2009). Lastly, while inflation performance has improved over the course of the first months of the year, on a 12 month basis the headline rate remains well above the official 3.0% target (the CPI closed February at 3.87%), so a cut in the monetary policy interest rate could only be explained by a desire to stimulate economic growth, something that would fly in the face of the bank’s insistence that the balance of risks has improved in the case of this latter variable. In conclusion, it sounds premature for the central bank to change its outlook on Mexican economic growth and even more so with regard to the possibility of lowering the monetary policy interest rate, especially if the latent risk is one of overheating.
Our Home is Your Home Welcome to Puerto Vallarta. A warm welcome to each and every one you, visiting our secret little paradise.
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Starting with our representative at Gustavo Diaz Ordáz International Airport, who presented you with this complimentary copy of the Vallarta Tribune, we wish you an unforgettable stay and many wonderful experiences. We hope the Tribune will provide you with useful tips making your vacation more enjoyable.
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No matter where you may be visiting from, Canada, the U.S., another part of Mexico or perhaps even Europe, Nuestra Casa es tu Casa, Our Home is your Home, Bienvenidos!
Letters to the Editor editor@vallartatribune.org DESIGNER Cynthia Estela Andrade Gtz. cisandra@vallartatribune.com
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April 23 - 29, 2012 | Issue 785