POPULATION

late 19thcentury.

Thenumbers are not nearly what theyonce were The latest report, from theCensusBureau’s population estimates program, showeda net gain of244,000 new residents fromimmigrationin2021 —a farcry from themiddleofthe previousdecade, whenthebureau regularlyattributedannual gains of 1 millionormore to immigration. Yet that drop-off pales in comparison to theslowdown inwhat demographerscall “naturalincrease,”the excessofbirths over deaths.In2021, that figure was 148,000 orone-tenth the gain that was normal a decadeago,and smallerthaninternational migration forthe firsttime.

AsofDecember immigrants represented 14.1 percent ofthe U.S. population,matchingthepeakof thedecadeslongimmigration boomthatbeganinthe 1960sand approachingthe record 14.8 percent seenin 1890 shortlybefore large numbersof Europeans began disembarking from vesselsatEllis Island.

Theforeign-born populationis increasingly concentrated among middle-age groups,with a large number ofimmigrantshaving lived inthe UnitedStatesformany years About1 in 5 Americansbetween theagesof40and64 was born overseas.And two-thirdsof foreign-born residentshave been inthe country more than a decade, thecensusdatashows.

Inthat respect,the country’s demographics reflectthelongtermeffectsofthehuge levelsofimmigration it experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

“We get soused to beingaround people who have beenhere for decades andnavigate Americansociety seamlessly that we almostforget they’re immigrants,”said Tomás Jiménez, a Stanford University professor who researches immigration andassimilation.

The recentslowdown inimmigration was an apparent resultnot onlyof the tougherimmigration policiesbut alsoofmeasurestaken in response to theCOVID-19 health crisis.Intheearlymonths of2020, the governmentsealedtheborders with Mexico andCanadaandlimitedinternational entriesbyair. Theclosure of U.S. consularoffices around the globe derailed visa processing.

Butthedatasuggeststhat tougher restrictionsontheborder maynothave beenthebiggestfactor intheslowdown. Manyimmigrantsdecided to leave the country. During the first yearsof Trump’s administration,thenumber ofimmigrants cominginto the country heldsteady, while the numberleavingincreased, figures show. Some datasuggests thatthe pace ofimmigrationhaspickedup lately U.S.CustomsandBorder Protection reporteda surge inenforcementactivity last year and theCensusBureau’s monthlyemploymentsurvey alsodetectedan uptickinforeign-born respondentsinlate 2021.

Theeconomicandpoliticalcircumstancesthat compel people to leave theirhome countries have persisted,anddemandforforeign workersofallskilllevels remains brisk.

ThenewcomerssincePresident Joe Biden tookoffice come fromall overtheglobe,asthe government haslifted thecapon refugees, welcomedthousandsoffamiliesseekingasylumonthesouthwestern borderandreopenedthedoortoforeign workerson temporary visas.

Amongthemis JeffQuetho 28, ofHaiti,whocrossed the border withhis3-year-oldson,hoping to build a more stablelife;Param Kulkarni,34,anIndian scientist whospecializesinmental health technology andartificialintelli- gence,who recentlysettledin New York;and Feroza Darabi, 22,ofAfghanistan,who arrived in Phoenix withher 13-year-oldnephew, Ali.

“I am happy to besomewhere safe,”Darabisaid recently duringa break fromanEnglishclassfor refugees atFriendlyHouseinGlendale,Ariz.

Darabi hopesshewillbe joined onedaysoonbyfamilymembers who were unable to scrambleonto theplanesheandhernephew boardedout of Kabul,Afghanistan.“What I wantmostnow is to have my familynext to me,” shesaid.

Ifimmigration returns to even its relativelymodestpre-pandemic pace,itispossibletheshare of Americansborn overseas could reach the record 14.8 percent from 1890.

The current laborshortage has heightened callsforforeign workers,in fieldsasvaried as restaurant serviceandnursing, to help fillvacancies.

“Thepandemicoffers a little taste ofwhat we maybe facing ifdemandis robust and we don’thave workers,”saidPiaOrrenius, a senioreconomistwhostudiesimmigration at the FederalReserve BankofDallas “We willsee price and wage inflation,and growth will be chokedoff.

“Immigrationisnot going to make thisproblem go away butit certainly couldhelp,”Orrenius said.

Ifimmigrationhad continued at a pre-pandemicpace,the economy wouldhave 2 millionadditional foreign-born workers inoccupationssuch asmanual labor and computer science,according toa recentstudybyeconomists at the University ofCaliforniaDavis.

Whilethepandemicisseenas contributing to theslowdown in newimmigration,itmayhavealso helped propupthenumberofforeign-born residents,sincethat numberdependsnot justonhow manyimmigrants arrive but also how manyleave Virus travel restrictionsmadeitharderforimmigrants to enter the UnitedStates, buttheyalsomadeitlesslikely they would depart, said Jeffrey Passel,a senior demographerat thePew Research Center.

“Duringthepandemic, you couldn’t leave the country, basically,”hesaid.

Some ofthe growthintheforeign-bornpopulationis related toa surge ofmigrantsatthesouthwesternborderthathasbeen going on, to varying degrees, since2014. Butitisalmostimpossible to know thefull extent. Not only isthere no reliableaccounting ofhow many peopleare enteringthe country illegally itis not clearhow many of themare beingquickly expelled.

Thedeclineinbirthrate that has resultedinforeign-bornpeople becoming an ever-larger share of thepopulationispart of a worldwidedemographicpattern.Historically, nationssee a dropin birthratesastheybecomemore prosperous, a trendthatcan undermine thatprosperity.

When low fertility is coupled withlow mortality, the resultisa bulgingpopulationofseniorsand relativelyfewer workers to sustain them, a scenariofacedby Japan andmanyEuropean countries that thensaw theireconomies shrink.

Themovementofthebabyboom generationoutofthelabor forceamid a plummetingbirthrate hasputinto sharper relieftheneed to reversethedeclineinnew immigration.Thiswillbecrucial,analystssay, despite thelarge numbersof immigrantsalreadyliving in the country;soonthosehere legallywillbedrawingmore fromSocialSecurity and Medicare.

Theimmigrants alreadyhere mayprovidepart ofthesolution. Foreign-born residents typically accountfor a disproportionate share of all birthsbecause recent immigrant womenare more likely thanothers to beintheirprime childbearing yearsand to have more children.

Lower immigration from Mexico, traditionallythebiggestsource ofnew immigrants,has contributed to falling U.S.birthrates overall.

Butitwill take boldpolitical moves to harnesstheeconomic benefits of the existingforeignbornpopulation.Already anestimated 11 millionofthem areliving in the country withoutlegalpermission,meaningtheycan work onlyaspart oftheunderground economy Biden tookofficewitha pledgeto legalizethembuthasnot wonbipartisansupportnecessary forsucha move in Congress.

He tooksteps to jump-start legal immigration, rescinding a proclamationby hispredecessorbanningtheentry offoreignerson work visas.

Lastmonth,hisadministration unveiledpolicies to attractinternationalstudentsand toextend thetimethatforeign graduatesin scienceand technical fieldscan remaininthe country to work, from one year to threeyears.

InDecember the government announcedthat20,000seasonal guest worker visas wouldbeadded totheallotmentof33,000forthewinter to assist employersinlandscaping, constructionandhospitality, desperatelyinneedof workers. Yet Biden’s Republican opponentshave consistently resisted large increasesin new immigration,and the questionofhow the country moves forward is likely to bedebatedascampaigningpicks upsteamforthis year’s congressional elections.

JordanandGebeloffwrite for TheNew York Times.

DEMONSTRATORSPROTESTKILLINGOFCONGOLESEREFUGEEINBRAZIL Protesterssay

Racisma Factorin Thebeatingdeath

BY DIANEJEANTET &DIARLEI RODRIGUES

RIODE JANEIRO

Demonstrators gathered onSaturdayinRiode Janeiro,SaoPauloandother Brazilian cities to protest thekilling of a 24-year-old Congolese refugee who was beaten to deathon Jan.24, andwhich sparked outrage and revulsion acrossthenation. In Rio, they gathered outsidethesamebeach kiosk where MoiseMugenyi Kabagambehad recently been working in BarradaTijuca, a neighborhoodknown foritsupmarket condominiumsandshoppingmalls.

The two lanesin frontof thekiosk were covered with bannersfeaturingimages andphotosof Moise.Some ofthesigns were attached to thesoundtruck.Oneof them,heldbymore than 10 people, besideanimage of thedead youngman’s face, said “Justicefor Moise. Blacklivesmatter!Stop killingus!”

“Moise was beatenfor 15 minutes,on a busybeach, wherepeoplepassbyallthe time,andatnotimedidanyonecallthepoliceandtry to separate them,” saidattorneyRodrigo Mondengo,of Brazil’s BarAssociation in Rio.“Wehave nodoubtthat ifit were a White person there beingbeaten,someone would goto thatperson’s rescue.”

Kabagambe’s assailants were caughtonsecurity camerafootage thepolice havereleased to themedia. Itshowsthree men violently attackingthe youngman, and over the courseof 13 minutesholdinghimdown andbeating himwith a rod —and continuing to doso even after heloses consciousness.Theyare later seenattempting chest compressions,then rollinghis body over.

Policeare investigating thecircumstancesthat promptedKabagambe’s killing. Manyfeltnoneed to await official findings ina city where murderoften goesunpunished; theyasserted Kabagambe’s death was evidence ofracism, xenophobiaandimpunity.

On SaturdayinRio,a group ofprotesters tore downthesign ofthekiosk where Moise was killed,but theorganizersoftheprotest called forpeace.

HumanRights Watch denounceda “deplorable” crimein a Feb. 1 statement. “COWARDICE.SAVAGERY. BARBARITY,” blaredthe frontpage oflocal newspaper Extra’s Feb.2 frontpage,alongwithimagesofthe assault.

Kabagambemoved to Brazilin2011 fromhisnative Bunia,capitalofCongo’s northeasternIturiprovince, in2011, his cousin Yannick Kamanda confirmed to AP. The country’s easthasbeen miredin conflictfordecades, andlocalmedia reportssaid

Protestersinistanbul Condemn Migrantdeathsongreek Border

BY MEHMETGUZEL& ANDREWWILKS

ISTANBUL

Hundreds of peopleinIstanbulmarched to the Greek consulate on Saturday to protestthedeaths of 19 migrantsnear Turkey’s borderwithGreece.

Turkish authoritiessaid they froze to deathearlierin the week after beingillegally pushedbackacrosstheborder byGreek guards.Athens has strongly rejectedtheaccusation.

Thedemonstration,organized by Turkishhumanitarian groups saw about 300 protesters walk to the consulate nearoneofIstanbul’s mainshoppingstreets behind a banner reading “Close borders to racism, open to humanity.” Dozensofriotpolicestoodbyasaid workers addressedthecrowd.

“People were strippedof theirclothes andtheirbelongings were taken.They were left to dieandthewhole world remains silentabout this,”said FehmiBulent Yildirim, chairmanofIHH,a humanitarian aid group.

Hecalledon the EuropeanParliament to “take actiononthisissue assoonas possibleandstopthiscruel attitudethat commitsthese crimesagainsthumanity.”

KenanAlpay vice chairman of humanitarian group Ozgur-Der, saidthepushbacks showed “brutality beyondhypocrisy. He added: “We invite theGreek government to abandon these ugly policies.”

Turkeyhas frequentlyalleged thatGreece carries out pushbacks ofmigrantsseeking to cross the northwesternlandborderortrying to reach Greece’s Aegeanislandsoninflatable dinghys.

Inaninterview with broadcasterAHaberonFriday VicePresident FuatOktayaccusedGreeceof “murder,” adding that“allEU countries,unfortunately, are responsibleforthedeathsof

19 people.” thefamilyhad fled fighting betweentheHemaand Lenduethnic groups.

TurkishPresidentRecep TayyipErdoganhaspledged to raisethealleged ill-treatment ofmigrantsbyGreece duringhismeetings with worldleaders.

Greece’s MigrationMinister NotisMitarachi has described thedeathsasa “tragedy butstronglydeniedthe claim thatGreek forceshadpushedbackthe migrants,insistingthatthe migrantsnever madeit to theborder.

Turkeyis a majorcrossingpointformigrants from theMiddleEast,Asia and Africaseeking a betterlifein EU countries,withmost crossinginto Greece.

TheEU,whichsaw1millionmostlySyrian refugees enterits territory in2015, signed a migration agreementwith Turkeyin 2016 thathasseenthe flow of peopledramatically reduced. Guzeland Wilkswrite for TheAssociated Press.

“Moise’s mother fledwith her children fromCongo to Brazilfearingthey woulddie thesame way ashermother, ordisappearthesame way as Moise’s father, saidRio state lawmakerDani Monteiro,whoheads the state legislature’s humanrights commission and met with thefamily.

More than2,500Congolesepeoplehave been recognizedas refugees in Latin America’s largestnation since2000 according to the justice ministry, which overseesimmigration.

“My son grew up here, studied here Allhis friends are Brazilians, hismother told televisionnetwork Globoat hisburialon Jan. 30 “I want justice.”

In recent years,Brazil alsohasbecomeanincreasinglypopulararrival point forCongolese andCamerooniansseeking to make the overlandtrek to the U.S. border. Congolese Foreign AffairsMinisterChristophe Lutundulasummonedthe Brazilianambassadoron

Wednesdayinaneffort to learnmore aboutthecircumstances surrounding the youngman’s killing. Riostate’s civilpolice forcehas arrestedthree men in connectionwiththekilling. Familymemberssay Kabagambeenteredintoan argumentthatnightafter complainingabout two days ofpayhe was owed. Policehave questioned thekiosk’s owner butnot namedhimas a suspect,policesaid. Jeantetand Rodrigueswrite for TheAssociated Press.