140108

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The

S outhern C ross

January 8 to January 14, 2014

What 2014 has in store for the pope and Vatican

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Reg No. 1920/002058/06

No 4856

www.scross.co.za

Book offers a plan for your spiritual health

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R7,00 (incl VAT RSA)

Analysis: Listen to Pope Francis’ voice

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What SA can expect in 2014 BY CLAIRE MATHIESON

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N 2014 we will have more of the same problems we saw in 2013: more scandal, more service delivery protests and further weakening of the rand—“but to a larger extent”, according to a Catholic political analyst. “Only if and when we see the ANC voting percentage drop drastically will we see change,” Mike Pothier, research coordinator for the Catholic Parliamentary Liaison Office (CPLO) told The Southern Cross. “I don’t see the ANC changing direction without them being forced. The only force is the fear of losing power. There is otherwise no incentive to change what they are currently doing,” Mr Pothier said. The fall-out from the Public Protector’s report on the R208 million security upgrades at Nkandla will be the first major political event of the year. The release of the inter-ministerial report on President Jacob Zuma’s residence in December seemed to be well received only by the ruling party with political commentators and opposition parties calling foul on the report, calling it a smokescreen to protect the president. “It’s clearly nonsense that it was all spent on security,” said Mr Pothier about the socalled “fire-pool” and “retaining wall” amphitheatre. Mr Pothier, who is also an advocate, said the big question is how the ANC responds to the Nkandla report. “Will they take it seriously? Or will this once again be symptomatic of the broader issue currently affecting government: the issue on how decisions get made and what the ethos is behind them?” He noted that “when money is spent on VIPs a different set of standards apply. Government is careful on spending minor amounts on small things; but when cabinet ministers or the president want something, they get it instantly with no questions asked”.

The clay model for a statue of the late Archbishop Denis Hurley of Durban which is to be unveiled at the KwaThintwa School for the Deaf in Inchanga. The sculptors, Ruhan Janse van Vuuren and Andre Prinsloo, also made the statue of Nelson Mandela which was unveiled last month at the Union Buildings. The Kwa Thintwa School for the Deaf was founded in 1981 by Archbishop Hurley, with an initial intake of 40 pupils. The archdiocese of Durban still serves as the school’s sponsoring body, with the present archbishop of Durban, Cardinal Wilfrid Napier, serving as the chairman and trustee of the institution’s sponsoring body. Archbishop Hurley, who headed the Durban archdiocese from 1946 to 1992, died on February 13, 2004 at the age of 88. (Photo courtesy of Ruhan Janse van Vuuren and Andre Prinsloo)

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oting that Mr Zuma seems to be going from one scandal to another, Mr Pothier wondered “to what extent will people of integrity in the ANC come to realise Zuma is a liability”. The CPLO commentator said it is clear most cabinet members were content to stand behind Mr Zuma as part of a “patronage system”. “It’s a ‘keep quiet and you will be rewarded’ kind of system,” said Mr Pothier.

But not everyone is skilled in quietly benefitting. “Former communications minister Dina Pule was a like a child at a party: she got far too greedy and government was forced to take action. But there are many examples where nothing happens.” Mr Pothier noted that a small group of ministers are doing genuinely good work. He cited finance minister Pravin Gordhan, health minister Aaron Motsoaldi, and minister in the Presidency Trevor Manuel as being among those who are trying to make a difference. Looking to this year’s elections, which may take place in June, Mr Pothier predicted that if the ANC wins above 60% of the national vote and retains control of Gauteng, the party will see “no incentive to change the way they are doing things”. “There will be more jobs for pals, incompetent people appointed to key jobs and politically pliable people in important areas,” he said. As a result, the country will see more social delivery protests because there will be no change in delivery. Should this continue, Mr Pothier warned, the National Development Plan, ”a promising project”, will eventually fade away.

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onversely, should national support drop below 60% and should the ANC lose an outright majority in Gauteng to a coalition of opposition parties, and something similar take place in the Northern Cape, then the ANC will “have to change”. Should the party perform poorly, by its standards, in the 2014 election, Mr Zuma may be recalled from the presidency. Mr Pothier said there are already future candidates lining up to take the presidency. “While there is an attempt to pin dishonour Cyril Ramaphosa—namely Marikana—he is free of scandal. He is also politically intelligent. He could be a first-class president and a uniting figure.” Other names being mentioned within the ANC and its alliance parties include Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, currently chairperson of the African Union, and ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize. Mr Pothier said Gauteng will prove interesting in the election as the Democratic Alliance (DA), which currently governs only in the Western Cape, believes it has a chance of winning South Africa’s richest province. While the DA has not joined five other opposition parties in a coalition called the Continued on page 2

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