Real Estate View Montecito Heat Index
Montecito Heat Index 50
by Michael Phillips
Michael is a realtor at Coldwell Banker, and is a Montecito Planning Commissioner. He can be reached at 969-4569 and info@ MichaelPhillipsRealEstate. com
short of showing off. It outperformed last year by 50%. And it outperformed the $2-3M sector by even more. The $4-5M group, usually struggling for attention, also lit up compared to last year. The $5M-and-up mega estates score 11 outperforming last year’s by 200%. Last month, it beat the prior year’s by a stunning 600%. Overall, demand for Montecito homes continues to be strong. More specifically, take another look at the chart and see how this looks like a market leaning toward the high-end properties beginning with the $3-4M group. This is not typical and though two months is not a trend, the significant increase in demand is curious. For the $5M-and-up group, nothing is ever easy and all of this happened with some patience and effort. The average days on market for these
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Heat Index
T
he Montecito Heat Index is a measurement of market demand for Montecito single-family homes in five distinct price sectors. Although completed sales are the favored metric for market performance, such data is always at least a month old. We use a forward-looking indicator based upon contract signings – specifically the ratio of properties for sale to those under contract – and thus determine the current demand or Heat. Since real estate activity fluctuates seasonally, today’s Heat score is compared to a year ago today. All data are from the Santa Barbara MLS and are uniformly deemed reliable. Today’s Heat score is 110, a solid increase of 77.4% over last year’s 62; June’s score was 84. Looking at individual price sectors, the adjacent chart tells the story. Demand today is higher for each sector, but one compared to this date last year. And the exception, the $2-3M group, scored a 17 just short of last year’s 21. This group, historically a consistent performer, posted a strong response last month with a first-place score of 50. The $3-4M group is doing nothing
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$$ in Millions
mega estates was 296; one property was 687 days, while for all properties in Montecito, the average is presently 117. And as you might guess, it took some serious price concessions to get most of these under contract. All but one $5M-plus properties now pending are just more than $5M and the exception is more of an estate land play than an estate purchase. Listed at $10,750, this Toro Canyon property is an iconic pastoral estate site with the best combination of ocean, island, and mountain views. It has majestic oaks and varied native flora all under the supervision of the Santa Barbara Botanical Gardens and ready for, I would guess, a large home. Last month, sales were down year over year by 5% and the median sales price was down 10%. Not a great
spring report. Today, mid-summer, our median is down 4%, and we have sold exactly as many homes as last year on this date. Clearly, we are moving in the right direction, yet even with strong buyer interest, too many prospective buyers are being sidelined by a combination of limited choices, difficult lending guidelines, and near-record high prices. Plus, a recent National Association of Realtors survey found folks are less confident about the economy and their financial situations than at the beginning of the year. This could well be impacting our under-$3M inventory. For the higher-end market, with different economic considerations and a stock market that seems to never disappoint, buyers seem increasingly confident and sellers remain anxious to please. •MJ
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36 MONTECITO JOURNAL
• The Voice of the Village •
20 – 27 July 2017