SUMMER 2022 Market Update
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With Summer close to an end and the Fall season approaching – We are getting ready for back to school and cooler weather. With all the changes ahead, the real estate market remains active and enticing in our coastal communities. It is more important than ever to have a trusted advisor by your side to help you interpret what the market changes mean for you and your real estate goals.
In this Summer edition of our 2022 market update, we provide statistics and key insights impacting home buyers and sellers here on the North Shore. Should Fall find you considering a change of address, allow us to assist you.
WELCOME TO OUR 2022 MarketSummerUpdate NOTES & ABBREVIATIONS ... 5 ESSEX COUNTY .... 6–11 BEVERLY ... MANCHESTER-BY-THE-SEAGLOUCESTER12–13...14–15 ... 16–17 MARBLEHEAD .... 18–19 NAHANT ... 20–21 ROCKPORT ... 22–23 SALEM SWAMPSCOTT...24–25 ... 26–27Contents
DTO Days to Offer. The number of days a property is listed before an accepted offer is received. A more reliable guide to activity than DOM – Days on Market – as a number of factors can affect the timing for the latter,
Look at this list of numbers: 5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,100,100. The median price – the middle one – is 11. The average is 24. Median price removes the impact of outliers – whether high or low. If 50% of sales take place above $100,000 and 50% below then the median will be $100,000. When the percentage increases to 60% above $100,000, it means that more sales are occurring at higher prices and so the median price increases
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MEDIAN PRICE
Notes Abbreviationsand
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022
The price in the very middle of a data set, with exactly half of the houses priced for less and half priced for more. It is not the average price. Median prices exclude distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – because these are not normally arms-length transactions. “Sales” include everything.
If 60 properties have sold in the last 6 months that is a rate of 10 per month. If there are currently 20 properties for sale the supply is 20 divided by 10 = 2 months. Because properties sell more quickly in summer months, we use Year to Date (YTD) numbers to even out those fluctuations.
DOM Days on Market YOY Year on Year SFH Single Family Home YTD Year to Date
MONTHS OF SUPPLY
Essex County Summer Review
SFH and Condo Median Price Fixed Rate Mortage
Since peaking at 3.5% in mid-June the yield on 10T has dropped and stayed largely under 3% on concerns that the economy has slowed sharply and may be heading into a recession. The 5.8% FRM increasingly looks like a peak.
The dominant factor in the housing market for several years has been the supply demand imbalance, a situation that has eased significantly in the last quarter.
The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) spiked from 3.1% at the end of 2021 to 4.7% at the end of March and reached a multi-year high of 5.8% in late June. The Federal Reserve has, belatedly, been increasing its interest rate (Fed Funds rate – FFR) rapidly in recent months. The FFR affects banks’ prime rates, used for setting interest rates on credit cards and auto loans. The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is determined by market forces, and in particular is priced as a premium – or spread – over the yield on the 10-year Treasury (10T), which reflects both the outlook for the economy and its status as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.
Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the spike in mortgage rates, the stock market correction and increased talk of recession, the market continued on its upward path in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022). The median SFH price, as in every year this century, increased from Q1 to Q2, and was up 4.1% to $630,000 in H1 2022. Sales declined by 11%, reflecting the much lower inventory, especially in Q1. Inventory has, however, tripled from the extremely low levels in Q1. Whereas in the April report SFH inventory was less than half the level of 2020, by late July it had reached 2020 levels. The median condo sale price increased 11% while sales also dropped by 11%.
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 Essex County HOUSING MARKET BY THE NUMBERS 5.81.82.01.20.90.9 1.5 $1.5M+$1M–$1.499M$750k–$999k$600k–$749k$500k–$599k$0k–$499k All Prices SUPPLY (Months)LIST PRICE Essex County continues to be an extremely strong sellers’ market. SINGLE FAMILY HOME | SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Traditionally, a market is said to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply, although in the current era of online listing and video viewing that period may well be shorter. 3 months ago active inventory was less than half the level of 2020; today it exceeds 2020 levels, but it remains a strong sellers’ market. of SFH sales were over list price in H1 2022 (vs 75% in H1 2021) of SFH sales were at 110% or more of list price (vs 28% in 2021) 78% 34% SFH SOLD UNITS | JANUARY – JUNE 2022 $0k–$499k $500k–$599k $600k–$749k $750k–$999k $1M–$1.499M $1.5M+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% <>100%100%100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 0-499500-599600-749750-9991,000-1,4991,500+22%21%17% 23% 11% 6% H1 2021 H1 2022
MEDIAN PRICE H1 2021 MEDIAN PRICE H1 2022 %CHANGE # H1SALES2021 # H2SALES2022 %CHANGE Amesbury $484,000 $577,000 19.2% 58 56 3.4% Andover $840,000 $990,000 17.9% 160 147 8.1% Beverly $630,000 $631,000 0.2% 124 129 4.0% Boxford $900,000 $982,000 9.1% 48 49 2.1% Danvers $640,000 $630,000 –1.6% 101 88 12.9% Essex $772,500 $765,000 –1.0% 12 5 58.3% Georgetown $580,000 $625,000 7.8% 37 43 16.2% Gloucester $600,000 $617,500 2.9% 61 59 3.3% Groveland $615,000 $550,000 –10.6% 33 31 6.1% Hamilton $790,000 $857,500 8.5% 50 38 24.0% Haverhill $450,000 $506,000 12.4% 181 180 0.6% Ipswich $806,633 $704,500 –12.7% 58 56 3.4% Lawrence $380,000 $443,000 16.6% 78 82 5.1% Lynn $462,500 $517,500 11.9% 248 220 11.3% Lynnfield $850,000 $1,195,000 40.6% 52 45 13.5% Manchester $1,200,000 $1,205,000 0.4% 29 33 13.8% Marblehead $810,000 $875,000 8.0% 104 73 –29.8% Merrimac $560,000 $687,500 22.8% 20 24 20.0% Methuen $460,000 $515,000 12.0% 192 174 –9.4% Middleton $732,500 $890,000 21.5% 40 22 –45.0% Nahant $823,000 $995,000 20.9% 15 10 –33.3% Newbury $810,000 $776,500 –4.1% 34 22 –35.3% Newburyport $853,500 $930,000 9.0% 85 55 –35.3% North Andover $797,450 $887,500 11.3% 114 96 –15.8% Peabody $599,000 $598,750 0.0% 146 126 –13.7% Rockport $925,000 $782,500 –15.4% 29 18 –37.9% Rowley $715,000 $873,200 22.1% 35 30 –14.3% Salem $534,000 $630,000 18.0% 80 93 16.3% Salisbury $500,000 $530,000 6.0% 30 30 0.0% Saugus $545,000 $630,500 15.7% 119 92 –22.7% Swampscott $690,000 $795,000 15.2% 68 49 –27.9% Topsfield $795,000 $816,744 2.7% 25 28 12.0% Wenham $998,000 $870,000 –12.8% 22 27 22.7% West Newbury $810,000 $740,000 –8.6% 32 15 –53.1% Source: MLSPIN, OliverReportsMA.com Essex County HOUSING MARKET BY THE NUMBERS
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 Market Snapshot H1 2022 VS H1 2021 4.1% –10.9% $630,000 2,245 SFH MEDIAN SALES PRICE HOMES SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 ESSEX COUNTY 10.4% –10% $579,500 21,025 SFH MEDIAN SALES PRICE HOMES SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 MASSACHUSETTS 10.8% –10.5% $419,950 1,203 MEDIAN SALES PRICE CONDOS SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 ESSEX CONDO 7.3% –12% $515,000 10,334 MEDIAN SALES PRICE CONDOS SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 MASSACHUSETTS CONDO MASSACHUSETTS CONDO EXCLUDING BOSTON 8.5% –11.8% $445,000 7,779 MEDIAN SALES PRICE CONDOS SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 5.2% –12.6% $735,000 2,555 MEDIAN SALES PRICE CONDOS SOLD VS. H1 2021 VS. H1 2021 BOSTON CONDO
Essex County HOUSING MARKET BY THE NUMBERS After the seasonal slowdown late 2021 into early 2022, the pace of sales accelerated DAYS TO ACCEPTED OFFER – 15 DAYS OR LESS Single Family Homes Condos SFH inventory has tripled from Q1 levels and by late July it had reached 2020 levels. The increased speed with which properties sell in recent years means that the number of sales has declined much less than active inventory, but sales were still down 10-12% in all categories. The impact of much higher mortgage rates had no obvious impact on sales or prices in Q2, which started with mortgage rates already close to 5%. SINGLE FAMILY HOME (SFH) INVENTORY 0 200 300 400 500 600 700 2020 2021 2022 QQ4 3 QQ3 2 Q2 QQ2 1 Q1 QQ1 4 0.9%0.8%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%1.0% JunAprJan '22OctJul JunAprJan '22OctJul 100%90%60%40%30%50%70%80% Monthly QuarterlyInventoryAverage Inventory
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) spiked from 3.1% at the end of 2021 to 4.7% at the end of March, and to a multi-year high of 5.8% in June. U.S. Weekly Average Mortgage Rates as of 7/21/2022 5.54% 30Y FRM 4.75% 15Y FRM 4.31% 5/1 ARM MORTGAGE RATES FREDDIE MAC | PRIMARY MORTGAGE SURVEY® 0.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3 Jun 202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008 All data is converted to a base of 1.00 in 2008. For example, the Essex County median price in 2008 was $335,000 and in the first half of 2022 it was $630,000. Using 2008 as 1.00 produces a 6/2022 value of $630,000/$375,000 or 1.88. Similarly, the other values are converted to a base of 1.00 in 2008. From 2008 to 2018 Boston Condo prices kept pace with Boston SFH prices, with both comfortably out-performing Essex County and Massachusetts overall. Since 2018, median SFH prices in Essex and MA have increased sharply, as have Boston SFHs, but the growth in median Boston condo prices has slowed. ESSEX COUNTY AND MASSACHUSETTS SFH VS. BOSTON SFH AND CONDOS 2008 – JUNE 2022 Boston SFH MA SFH Essex Conty SFHBoston Condos
Beverly Single Family Home Median Price on 129 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 54 Sales in H1 2022 $631,000 $410,000 Beverly AT A SFHSalesSalesMedianGLANCESFHPriceDTOMedianCondoPriceDTOForSaleCondosForSale 77776124$630,000$368,00022 7129$631,000$410,0005462511 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $600,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000$500,000 SFHCONDO 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 $0-499$500-599$600-749$750-999$1,000+ 5% 32% 37% 14% 12% The SFH Median Price in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022) was virtually unchanged from 2021, while sales were slightly higher. The median Condo sold price increased 11%, while sales returned to the 2020 level. SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 40%81% 1% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% H1 2022 H1 2021 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE Note: 12-month rolling average of quarterly median prices. $0 –$1,000,000+$750,000$600,000$500,000$499,999–$599,999–$749,999–$999,999 H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
Gloucester Gloucester AT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 59 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 53 Sales in H1 2022 $617,500 $511,000 SFH For Sale Condos For Sale 761$600,000$440,00063112311 12$511,000$617,50059653246 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 Median SFH Price SalesDTOMedian Condo Price SalesDTO As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $600,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000$500,000 SFHCONDO 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo $1,500 $0-499$500-599$600-749$750-999$1,000-1.499plus15%27% 24% 12% 14% The SFH Median Price increased 3% in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022, while sales eased again to the lowest level since 2009. The median Condo sold price increased 16% driven by new construction and conversions. 3%$0 –$1,500,000+$1,000,000$750,000$600,000$500,000$499,999–$599,999–$749,999–$999,999–$1.499,000 SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 66% AboveListPrice 29% 110% of List Price 15% At PriceList 19% ListBelowPrice SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 H1 2021 H1 2022 Note: 12-month rolling average of quarterly median prices. 8%
Manchester-by-the-Sea by-the-SeaManchesterAT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 33 Sales in H1 2022 Median Days to Offer in H1 2022 (vs 12 in H1 2021) $1,205,000 13 Median SFH Price SalesDTOForSale 1229$1,200,00012 151333$1,205,000 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES SFH $1,000,000$900,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$1,100,000$1,200,000 SFH 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFH $2,000 $500-749$750-999$1,000-1,499$1,500-1,999plus 9% 37% 15% 27%12% The SFH Median Price increased was basically unchanged in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022), while sales were the highest in the last decade. There were just 2 Condo sales – at $750,000 and $840,000. $500,000 – $749,000 $750,000 – $999,999 $1,000,000 – $1,499,999 $1,500,000 – $1,999,000 $2,000,000 + SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Note: 12-month rolling averages of semiannual median prices. 18%61% 6% 33% H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
Marblehead Single Family Home Median Price on 73 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 19 Sales in H1 2022 $875,000 $505,000 Marblehead AT A SFHSalesSalesMedianGLANCESFHPriceDTOMedianCondoPriceDTOForSaleCondosForSale 7104$810,000$485,100256138 773$875,000$505,0001914308 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $900,000$600,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$500,000$700,000$800,000 SFHCONDO 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo $0 –$1,500,000+$1,000,000$800,000$600,000$599,999–$799,999–$999,999–$1,499,999 The SFH Median Price in creased 8% in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022), while sales, reflecting the low levels of inventory, dropped by 30%. The median Condo increased 4%, while sales were close to the 3- and 5-year averages. 8% $1,500 $0-599$600-799$800-999$1,000-1,499plus 11% 29% 22% 23% 15% SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 34%73% 5% 22% SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Note: 12-month rolling average of quarterly median prices. H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
N ahant Nahant AT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 10 Sales in H1 2022 Median Days to Offer in H1 2022 (vs 41 days in H1 2021) $995,000 6.5 Median SFH Price SalesDTOForSale 4115$823,0003 1110$995,0006.5 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES SFH $900,000$600,000$400,000$300,000$500,000$700,000$800,000 SFH 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFH $0 –$1,000,000+$800,000$600,000$599,999–$799,999–$999,999 With half the small number of sales in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022) over $1 million, the median price increased to almost $1 million on just 10 sales. There were just 2 Condo sales at $340,000 and $386,000 in 2021. 10% $1,000 $0-599$600-799$800-999plus 10% 10%30%50% SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 110% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 20%70% 0% 30% SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Note: 12-month rolling averages of semiannual median prices. H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
Rockport Rockport AT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 18 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 15 Sales in H1 2022 $782,500 $447,500 Median SFH Price SalesDTOMedian Condo Price SFHSalesDTOFor Sale Condos For Sale 71329$925,000$580,00011134 77.518$782,500$447,50015153 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $900,000$600,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000$500,000$700,000$800,000 CONDO SFH 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo $0 –$1,500,000+$1,000,000$750,000$500,000$499,999–$749,999–$999,999–$1,499,999 When the number of sales is small, median prices can fluctuate, depending upon the make up of sales in any time period. In the first half of 2022 (H1 2022) the SFH Median Price dropped 15% on lower sales, while the median Condo price dropped 14%. 15% $1,500 $0-499$500-749$750-999$1,000-1,499plus 17% 33% 11% 11% 28% SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% H1 2022 H1 2021 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 39%67% 11% 22% SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Note: 12-month rolling averages of semiannual median prices. H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
Salem Salem AT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 93 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 189 Sales in H1 2022 $630,000 $440,000 Median SFH Price SalesDTOMedian Condo Price SFHSalesDTOFor Sale Condos For Sale 781$530,000$420,00016861230 7189$440,000$630,0009361933 Key Metrics H1 2021 H1 2022 As of 7/21/21 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $600,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$250,000$350,000$450,000$500,000$550,000 CONDO SFH 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 30%83% 6% 11% SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 Note: 12-month rolling average of quarterly median prices. $0-499$500-599$600-749$750-plus 18% 22%18%42% The SFH Median Price increased 19% in the first half of 2022, while sales returned to the 2020 level. The median Condo sold price increased 5% on the highest sales level since 2016. 19% $0 –$750,000$600,000$500,000$499,999–$599,999–$749,999+ H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
Swampscott AT A GLANCE Single Family Home Median Price on 49 Sales in H1 2022 Condo Median Price on 24 Sales in H1 2022 $795,000 $447,500 Swampscott Median SFH Price SalesDTOMedian Condo Price SFHSalesDTOFor Sale Condos For Sale 668$690,000$403,0003881319 749$795,000$447,500248178 Key Metrics H1 2021 As of 7/21/21 H1 2022 As of 7/22/22
SUMMER UPDATE | 2022 MEDIAN PRICES | SFH VS CONDO $600,000$400,000$200,000$0$800,000 SFHCONDO 2022202120202019201820172016201520142013 SFHCondo $0 –$1,500,000+$1,000,000$800,000$600,000$599,999–$799,999–$999,999–$1,499,999 The SFH Median Price in the first half of 2022 (H1 2022) was up 15% from 2021 while sales, reflecting the shortage of inventory, dropped 28%. The median Condo sold price increased 11% from the 2021 level, but sales dropped to the lowest level since 2015. 15% SHARE OF SFH SALES BY PRICE JANUARY – JUNE 2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% H1 2021 H1 2022 < 100%100% > 100% OVER 110% OF LIST PRICE 43%78% 4% 18% SFH SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE | H1 2022 VS H1 2021 $1,500 $0-599$600-799$800-999$1,000-1,499plus 14% 11%16%54% 5% Note: 12-month rolling average of quarterly median prices. H1 2021 H1 2022 AboveListPrice110% of List Price At PriceList ListBelowPrice
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