Could MH370 really blow straight through Asian air defenses? Maybe, say experts. Or maybe the militaries are hiding something. By Patrick Winn, GlobalPost.com
they spotted MH370 flying off route in the wrong direction. “But they didn’t do anything. Why? Because that’s not what they were looking for,” said Carlyle Thayer of the Australian Defense Force Academy. Radar operators are trained to detect fast-moving fighter aircraft from rival militaries. Not civilian planes, which fill the skies at all hours. Like the Sept. 11 attacks, the MH370 mystery is so “outside the box” Thayer said, that it defies typical surveillance conventions. “Just look at 9/11,” said Ian Storey, a security expert at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. “Nobody knew the aircraft were headed towards those targets. And that was in the most technologically powerful country on earth.” The theorized northern route sends the jet through nations with rudimentary militaries (Myanmar and Laos), moderately advanced forces (Thailand) and sophisticated air defenses (China and Afghanistan). China’s military has fortified radar positions along its urbanized east coast, a vitally important stretch facing US military bases in Korea and Japan. There is less cause for vigilance in its western hinterlands — which fall along the northern route. Still, blowing through that region’s air defenses would he extremely difficult. As one expert told the New York Times: “Everything would have to go your way.” Aviation expert Jay Carmel of the Avascent aerospace consulting firm told GlobalPost that piercing China’s defenses would be wildly unlikely. Nearing Afghanistan — protected by American air defenses — would be even harder.
BANGKOK, Thailand — For the conspiracy minded, the idea that missing Malaysia Airlines’ flight MH370 could have veered over mainland Asia is tantalizing. Satellite data suggests two potential routes for the missing jet, which appears to have gone rogue during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. One trajectory sends the plane southward past Indonesia and over an ocean abyss adjacent to Australia. This scenario is deeply unsettling: The aircraft and its 239 passengers could be submerged miles below the water’s surface. Recovery from deep waters can take years. The other trajectory is more intriguing: a northern arc over Thailand, Myanmar, China and potentially as far as the Central Asian hinterlands. Given that Malaysian authorities deem the plane’s disappearance “deliberate,” this theory offers a flicker of hope that the jet landed somewhere — or at least crashed into land instead of difficult-to-probe ocean depths. But this theory begs the question: Wouldn’t these countries’ air defenses spot and intercept a 770,000-pound jet careening into their military-protected skies? Probably. But maybe not. Violating a developing country’s airspace is easier than you might imagine, experts on Asian military capabilities say. militaries fear attack aircraft, not commuter jets Military radar operators in both Malaysia and Thailand believe Saathee.com
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April 2014