Facts & Trends Real Estate
Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors
Fall 2018
Buyer Confidence Fuels Home Sales
Caroline Ruhl, CEO Chris Beason, President
RuhlHomes.com
IN THIS ISSUE: page 4
Home Price Appreciation Slows Slightly but Remains Strong
page 4
Scammers are Tricking People as They’re About to Close on a Home
page 6
Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors Launches NEW Website
Despite volatile and rising interest rates, home sales are still strong in our region. Activity has slowed as it always does in the fall compared to spring and summer, but is comparable to last year in terms of sales. The media is overstating the impact of rising interest rates and causing needless concern to buyers and sellers. People buy and sell homes for a variety of reasons - upgrading, downsizing, relocating, want to own vs. rent, divorce, estate, retirement, investment purchase, etc. All of these motives are still in effect regardless of interest rates. 20% of buyers use cash and aren’t affected by rising rates. Interest Rates Impact on Affordability The only real impact is affordability. The higher interest rates may prohibit or delay some first-time buyers from purchasing. More likely though, the higher monthly payments will cause some buyers to purchase less expensive homes. Fall 2017
Fall 2018
Average Interest 3.97% 5.00% Rate Loan $150,000 $150,000 Amount Principal & Interest $713.53 $805.53 Payment Difference: $1,100.40/year or $91.70/month or $3.06/day - one less Starbuck’s a day.
Buyer’s or Seller’s Market? We continue to have a bifurcated market, with strong demand for a low inventory of affordable homes for sale, but less demand for the abundant inventory of expensive homes for sale. Recall that fewer than 4 months of inventory is a seller’s market, 4-6 months is balanced,
and greater than 6 months of inventory is a buyer’s market. Thankfully, we are seeing more inventory and more balanced markets. See a comparison below of some of our markets: Market
Price
Fall Months of Inventory 2017
2018
< $400K
3.0
3.6
> $400K
10.0
11.0
Dubuque Area
< $350K
3.3
3.0
> $350K
9.9
16.0
Illinois Quad Cities
< $300K
5.1
3.5
> $300K
7.5
6.7
Iowa Quad Cities
< $450K
2.8
2.5
> $450K
5.8
8.9
Iowa City Area
< $300K
3.4
5.8
> $300K
7.5
12.2
Cedar Rapids Area
Sales Volume Up Due to Appreciation Our Regional Activity Chart on page 2 shows the variation from market to market - average sales prices, number of properties sold and sales volume. Across the region, 2% fewer properties have sold this year than in 2017 but sales volume is up 1% because of appreciation and higher priced sales. We expect an active 4th quarter due to great new inventory coming onto the market, strong buyer confidence, low unemployment and high rental costs. Millennials still have the American dream of home ownership. Investors are still buying up affordable homes at a fast pace.
2018 Regional Real Estate Activity Through September
Average 2018 Sales Price
% Change in Average Sales Price from 2017
$118,000 $193,000 $103,200 $156,200 $188,400 $178,200 $101,200 $129,700 $208,000 $247,600 $158,800 $144,600 $184,400
-5% +5% 0% -4% -2% -4% +2% +6% +4% +5% +3% +3% +3%
Burlington Area Cedar Rapids Area Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area DeWitt Area Dubuque Area Galena & Galena Territory Galesburg Area Illinois Quad Cities Iowa Quad Cities Iowa City Area Muscatine/Wilton Area Southwest Wisconsin Area 2018 Regional Total
2018 Number Sold
760 3,714 354 88 1,125 168 427 1,769 1,865 2,570 400 431 13,671
% Change in Number Sold from 2017
-4% -2% 0% -4% -2% +14% -2% +2% -8% 0% -11% +7% -2%
% Change in Sales Volume from 2017
2018 Sales Volume
$89,647,500 $716,837,000 $36,539,300 $13,746,000 $211,961,900 $29,932,600 $43,197,100 $229,369,800 $387,920,200 $636,273,200 $63,500,400 $62,326,400 $2,521,251,400
Active Listing Count 2018
-9% +3% 0% -8% -4% +9% 0% +8% -4% +5% -8% +10% +1%
527 1,321 221 26 412 299 282 753 579 1,162 181 226 5,989
% Change in Active Listings from 2017
Months of Inventory
+2% +3% -4% +8% +1% +3% +18% -6% 0% +17% +1% -4% +4%
7.2 4.0 7.1 4.4 3.7 13.6 7.8 3.7 2.9 7.2 5.1 3.8
Summary of Regional Real Estate Activity
Cedar Rapids Area
Listing Inventory: There are 1,321 residential properties listed for sale in the Cedar Rapids area, 3% more than the same time last year when there were 1,278 properties listed. Properties Sold: Through September this year 3,714 properties sold, 2% fewer than the 3,773 that sold through September 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $193,000 through September 2018, 5% more than the average sales price of $184,600 through September 2017. 2 • RuhlHomes.com
DeWitt Area
Listing Inventory: DeWitt’s listing inventory is up 8% from 24 properties listed for sale last year to 26 properties currently on the market. Properties Sold: 88 properties sold and closed during the first three quarters of 2018, a 4% decrease compared to 92 sales in 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price of homes sold through
Listing Inventory
Properties Sold
2017
2018
$211,961,900
2017 2018
$221,702,800
2017 2018
$188,400
Dubuque Area
$192,500
2017 2018
1,125
Listing Inventory: There are 4% fewer properties listed for sale in the Clinton, Camanche and Fulton area; comparing 221 current listings to 231 properties for sale last year. Properties Sold: The same amount of properties, 354, sold through the third quarter of 2018 and 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price through September 2018 was $103,200, comparable to the average sales price of $103,700 through September 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was comparable through September 2018; $36,716,100 in the first three quarters of 2017 and $36,539,300 in the first three quarters of 2018.
1,152
Clinton, Camanche & Fulton Area
September 2018 was $156,200, 4% less than year to date in 2017 when the average sales price was $163,200. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume reduced by 8% in 2018, from $15,013,600 in 2017 to $13,746,000 in 2018.
412
Listing Inventory: There are 527 homes and condominiums listed for sale in Burlington, Iowa and the surrounding area, which is a 2% increase compared to 516 active listings at the end of the third quarter 2017. Properties Sold: 4% fewer residential properties sold year-to-date than the same time period last year, comparing 790 sales last year to 760 sales in the first three quarters of this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $118,000, a 5% decrease from the average sales price of $124,600 in the first three quarters of 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 9%, a decrease from $98,417,200 through September 2017 to $89,647,500 through September 2018.
Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 3% from $696,537,300 through the third quarter of 2017 to $716,837,000 through the third quarter of 2018.
407
Burlington Area
Average Residential Sales Price Sales Volume
Dubuque Area
Listing Inventory: There are 412 residential properties listed for sale in the Dubuque region, which is 1% more than at the same time last year when there were 407 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 2% fewer properties sold in the first three quarters of 2018; a decrease from 1,152 closings through September 2017 to 1,125 closings through September 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price of homes sold through September 2018 was $188,400 a 2% decrease from the average sales price of $192,500 through September 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume for the first three quarters of 2018 was $211,961,900, down 4%
Summary continued on page 3
Summary continued from page 2
from the same time period in 2017 when sales volume was $221,702,800.
Galena & Galena Territory
Listing Inventory: There are 299 properties for sale in Galena, Illinois and the Galena Territory; 3% more than the same time last year when there were 290 listings. Properties Sold: There was a 14% increase in the number of residential properties sold in the first three quarters of 2018, comparing 147 sales in 2017 to 168 sales in 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $178,200 through September 2018, 4% less than last year when the average sales price was $186,000. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was up 9% for the first three quarters of 2018, an increase from $27,340,800 through September 2017 to $29,932,600 through September 2018.
Galesburg Area
Listing Inventory: There are 282 residential properties currently listed for sale in the Galesburg area, which is 18% more than the 238 that were listed last year. Properties Sold: Sales have decreased 2% from 434 properties sold through the third quarter of 2017 to 427 through September 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $101,200 through September 2018, 2% more than the average sales price of $99,100 through September 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume through the third quarter of 2018 went from $43,004,200 in 2017 to $43,197,100 in 2018.
Illinois Quad Cities
Listing Inventory: The number of properties for sale in the Illinois Quad Cities is down 6%; from 803 listings last year to 753 listings currently on the market. Properties Sold: Through the third quarter of 2018, 2% more properties
sold, comparing 1,737 sales through September 2017 to 1,769 sales through September 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was up 6%, from $121,800 through September 2017 to $129,700 through September 2018. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 8% through the third quarter of 2018, from $211,542,900 to $229,369,800.
Iowa Quad Cities
Listing Inventory: There are 579 homes and condominiums listed for sale in the Iowa Quad Cities, comparable to the same time last year when there were 581 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 8% fewer properties sold through the third quarter of 2018, comparing 2,028 sales in 2017 to 1,865 sales this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price increased 4%; from $200,100 through September 2017 to $208,000 through September 2018. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume decreased 4%, from $405,864,700 through September 2017 to $387,920,200 through September 2018.
Iowa City Area
Listing Inventory: The number of properties for sale in the Iowa City area is up 17%, an increase from 993 in 2017 to 1,162 properties currently on the market. Properties Sold: A comparable amount of properties sold during the first three quarters of 2018, comparing 2,577 sales in 2017 to 2,570 sales in 2018.
Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $247,600; a 5% increase from the first three quarters of 2017 when the average sales price was $235,900. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 5%, from $607,926,100 through September 2017 to $636,273,200 through September 2018.
Muscatine &â&#x20AC;&#x2C6;Wilton Area
Listing Inventory: There are 181 homes and condominiums listed for sale in the Muscatine and Wilton area, 1% more than the same time last year when there were 180 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 11% fewer residential properties sold in the first three quarters of 2018, comparing 450 sales last year to 400 sales this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $158,800, a 3% increase from the average sales price in the first three quarters of 2017 when it was $154,100. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 8%, from $69,327,900 through September 2017 to $63,500,400 through September 2018.
Southwest Wisconsin Area
Listing Inventory: There are 226 properties for sale in the southwest Wisconsin region, a 4% decrease compared to the same time last year when there were 235 listings. Properties Sold: There were 431 properties sold through the third quarter this year, which is 7% more than the 403 properties that sold in 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $144,600 during the first three quarters of 2018, 3% higher than the first three quarters of 2017 when the average sales price was $140,200. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was up 10%, an increase from $56,520,100 through September 2017 to $62,326,400 through September 2018.
Quad Cities MLS Statistics - Iowa & Illinois Combined Through September Current MLS Listings Average Sales Price Total Sales Volume Total # of Sales YTD
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1,770 $150,500 $481,332,000 3,198
1,721 $156,600 $532,044,600 3,397
1,571 $158,500 $582,562,000 3,676
1,384 $161,000 $617,407,600 3,765
1,332 $169,900 $617,290,000 3,634
% Change 2017 vs. 2018 -3.9% +5.2% 0.0% -3.6%
RuhlHomes.com â&#x20AC;˘ 3
Home Price Appreciation Slows Slightly but Remains Strong Five-year home appreciation in our region was between 10.36% and 17.40% with all of our regional Metropolitan Statistical Areas experiencing a positive gain. “Home prices rose in the second quarter but at a slower pace than we have seen for the past four years,” said Dr. William Doerner, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Supervisory Economist. Last quarter, the FHFA predicted a slow down in appreciation. In the past year, home prices are up: 5.13% in Dubuque; 5.07% in Iowa City; 1.15% in the Quad Cities and 3.03% Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
Cedar Rapids, IA Davenport-MolineRock Island, IA-IL Des MoinesWest Des Moines, IA Dubuque, IA Iowa City, IA USA
in Cedar Rapids. This compares to other cities: Des Moines up 5.78% and Chicago up 4.16%. Of course, there is considerable variation based on price range and location of properties, with more affordable properties appreciating more. “Home price appreciation is still strong and stable in our regions,” said Caroline Ruhl, CEO of Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors. “This is an ideal time to sell your home, because we continue to see pent-up buyer demand in the most affordable price ranges.”
Percent Change in House Prices 1 Year 5 Year
2018 2nd Quarter National Ranking of 245 MSAs*
Through September Burlington Area (Southeast Iowa Regional Board of
Cedar Rapids Area (Cedar Rapids Area Assoc. of R Southeast Cedar Rapids Northeast Cedar Rapids Southwest Cedar Rapids Northwest Cedar Rapids Hiawatha & Robins Marion
East of I-380: Mechanicsville, Anamosa, Mt. Vernon, L West of I-380: Walford, Fairfax, Atkins, etc. Corridor Area: Solon, Ely, Swisher Condominiums
Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area (Quad City Area Re DeWitt Area (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc.) Dubuque Area (Dubuque Board of Realtors) Dubuque
+3.03%
+10.63%
220
North, South and West Dubuque
+1.15%
+11.30%
239
Wisconsin
+5.78%
+25.03%
152
+5.13% +5.07% +6.49%
+16.33% +17.40% +33.09%
170 174
Information courtesy of Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for second quarter 2018. FHFA stats always run one quarter behind. Their full report is accessible at www.fhfa.gov. *Rankings based on annual percentage change in house prices.
Scammers are Tricking People As They’re About to Close on a Home Homebuyers should be aware that they may be targeted by scammers, and should be vigilant during their real estate transaction. Here’s how it often works: a person involved in a real estate transaction, such as a real estate attorney or realtor, has his or her email account compromised by malicious software, known as malware, sent by a criminal over email. Unbeknownst to the professional, the fraudster can now monitor the realtor’s emails to look for upcoming transactions. Next, just as a closing date is coming near, the fraudster uses the compromised email account to send a legitimate-looking message to the buyer. The note tells the buyer that there’s been a change of plans, and he or she needs to wire the down payment just before the closing date, supposedly to a bank account belonging to the seller. Before the buyer knows it, their funds are lost and quickly wired across the country, and sometimes across the globe. If the transfer leaves the country, there is a chance that the buyer can 4 • RuhlHomes.com
R
lose the funds permanently. Buyers can take these step to help minimize the risk. Voice verify: It might seem cumbersome in an already long homebuying process, but following up emails with a voice verification is a must. Talk to your bank: Most banks will honor your request to not allow any wire transfers without a voice verification or other checkpoint from you. Don’t react immediately to email: Emails asking you to take some type of action, purporting to be from the title company, attorneys, realtors, bank lawyers or others involved in a transaction may not be authentic. Regard any of them with suspicion, and you should follow up on known phone numbers for the individuals making the request to confirm. If you’re ever uncertain of what to do when you receive an e-mail, give us a call. We’re here to help you through the process however we can. Source: www.cnbc.com/ amp/2018/08/31/how-scammers-tricknew-homebuyers-with-wire-fraud.html
Illinois
Galena & Galena Territory (Realtor Assoc. of North Galena Galena Territory Galesburg Area (Capital Area Association of Realto Illinois Quad Cities (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc. Rock Island Milan & Rural Rock Island County Moline Coal Valley, Rural Moline, Miscellaneous East Moline & Silvis Port Byron, Upper Rock Island County Mercer County Henry County Condominiums Iowa Quad Cities (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc.) Davenport Bettendorf & Riverdale Blue Grass, Buffalo, Durant & Walcott LeClaire, Pleasant Valley & Princeton North Scott County Miscellaneous Condominiums Iowa City Area (Iowa City Area Assoc. of Realtors) Iowa City Coralville Northwest Iowa City Northeast Iowa City Southeast Iowa City Southwest Iowa City Corridor Area Miscellaneous Condominiums
Muscatine & Wilton Area (Muscatine Board of Real Muscatine Wilton Muscatine Outlying Condominiums
Southwest Wisconsin Area (S. Central Wisconsin M
This representation is based in part on data supplied by the REALTOR Associati The counties we track for the Burlington Area are Des Moines, Henry, and Lee in The cities we track for the DeWitt Area are DeWitt, Calamus and Wheatland. Th
Regional Residential Real Estate Activity Current MLS Listings Realtors)
Realtors)
Lisbon, etc.
ealtor Assoc.)
% of Active Listings
527 1,321
2018 Avg. Sales Price
2018 Sales Volume
2018 # Sold
$118,000
$89,647,500
760
% of Unit Sales
Sales/ List
2017 # Sold
2017 Avg. Sales Price
2017 Sales Volume
95%
790
$124,600
$98,417,200
$193,000
$716,837,000
3,714
99%
3,773
$184,600
$696,537,300
121
9%
177,600
59,149,200
333
9%
98%
291
163,800
47,651,400
144
11%
189,100
105,353,100
557
15%
99%
527
182,600
96,246,400
88
7%
165,200
56,178,200
340
9%
99%
371
159,600
59,194,100
83
6%
158,300
47,487,000
300
8%
99%
314
142,800
44,853,500
28
2%
248,100
16,123,500
65
2%
97%
82
283,700
23,266,200
128
10%
231,400
109,696,400
474
13%
100%
453
226,500
102,624,400
155
12%
171,200
56,150,000
328
9%
97%
381
170,200
64,861,800
150
11%
173,500
58,113,500
335
9%
97%
352
160,500
56,479,700
97
7%
342,700
73,336,600
214
6%
98%
235
304,700
71,600,300
327
25%
20%
176,100
135,249,500
768
101%
767
169,200
129,759,500
221
$103,200
$36,539,300
354
93%
354
$103,700
$36,716,100
26
$156,200
$13,746,000
88
96%
92
$163,200
$15,013,600
412
$188,400
$211,961,900
1,125
95%
1,152
$192,500
$221,702,800
234
57%
193,100
148,093,600
767
68%
96%
816
196,800
160,568,000
131
32%
173,600
50,355,000
290
26%
93%
268
172,100
46,114,300
33
8%
193,700
7,555,500
39
3%
92%
52
224,400
11,669,500
3%
196,100 $178,200
5,687,800 $29,932,600
29 168
3%
hwest IL)
14 299
93% 87%
16 147
209,400 $186,000
3,351,000 $27,340,800
26% 74%
172,300 181,400 $101,200
10,337,900 19,594,700 $43,197,100
60 108 427
36% 64%
ors)
79 220 282
89% 87% 94%
57 90 434
135,900 217,700 $99,100
7,747,100 19,593,700 $43,004,200
$121,800 95,300 153,700
$211,542,900 30,589,500 21,059,600
.)
ltors)
MLS Board)
753 133 48
18% 6%
$129,700 102,300 184,400
$229,369,800 31,713,000 23,413,300
1,769 310 127
18% 7%
96% 96% 94%
1,737 321 137
158
21%
120,500
50,356,800
418
24%
97%
404
115,900
46,840,400
30
4%
153,100
14,241,000
93
5%
96%
92
144,000
13,249,300
87
12%
118,700
26,590,300
224
13%
97%
239
110,500
26,413,400
46
6%
177,500
16,684,300
94
5%
95%
72
188,600
13,576,400
52
7%
122,000
13,664,600
112
6%
97%
113
116,300
13,146,800
143
19%
136,400
39,964,100
293
17%
96%
267
129,700
34,637,500
56
7%
130,000
12,742,400
98
5%
96%
92
130,800
12,030,000
$208,000
$387,920,200
1,865
98%
2,028
$200,100
$405,864,700
579 245
42%
158,100
162,403,700
1,027
55%
98%
1,047
148,000
155,007,700
149
26%
323,000
130,186,000
403
22%
98%
447
309,000
138,125,900
16
3%
211,300
12,680,800
60
3%
98%
93
215,100
20,004,400
49
8%
319,000
27,434,700
86
5%
98%
91
291,100
26,486,400
39
7%
265,900
20,736,800
78
4%
98%
110
264,800
29,129,900
40
7%
140,500
8,150,400
58
3%
95%
71
122,500
8,696,100
41 1,162
7%
172,100 $247,600
26,327,800 $636,273,200
153 2,570
8%
98% 99%
169 2,577
168,100 $235,900
28,414,300 $607,926,100
239
21%
294,400
179,890,100
611
24%
98%
594
295,800
175,698,200
82
7%
329,100
46,080,400
140
5%
98%
151
333,100
50,296,300
107
9%
339,300
90,924,700
268
10%
99%
271
305,500
82,795,800
45
4%
195,500
9,384,700
48
2%
96%
63
196,600
12,388,200
13
1%
172,300
6,718,200
39
2%
98%
44
157,600
6,936,500
47
4%
186,900
27,290,500
146
6%
98%
149
192,200
28,639,500 26,486,300
40
3%
315,100
31,823,600
101
4%
98%
86
308,000
163
14%
194,000
70,999,400
366
14%
98%
362
180,800
65,465,300
426
37%
203,500
173,161,600
851
33%
100%
857
185,800
159,220,000
$158,800
$63,500,400
400
97%
450
$154,100
$69,327,900
113
62%
158,700
42,534,000
268
67%
97%
284
155,500
44,158,800
5
3%
149,100
4,175,400
28
7%
98%
38
155,100
5,895,500
51
28%
158,100
12,967,000
82
21%
97%
113
148,800
16,817,400
12
7%
5%
97%
15
163,700
2,456,200
92%
403
$140,200
$56,520,100
181
226
173,800
3,824,000
22
$144,600
$62,326,400
431
ions or their Multiple ListÂing Services. Neither the Boards nor their MLS guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. n Iowa; Hancock and Henderson in Illinois. The cities we track for the Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area are Clinton and Camanche in Iowa; Albany, Fulton and Morrison in Illinois. RuhlHomes.com he counties we track for the Galesburg Area are Knox and Warren. The counties we track for the Southwest Wisconsin Area are Grant and Lafayette.
â&#x20AC;˘5
Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors Launches NEW Website! Easier Search ● More Local Data ● Robust Community Information
Find the most extensive local real estate information on the new RuhlHomes.com. Starting in November, you can connect to local homes for sale, tips on buying and selling and browse market trends in your community. Experience the easier search. Customized for each market area, you can use the new search to find homes in a specific neighborhood, subdivision or school district. It’s easy - just type the name of the area in the search bar in the middle of the page. Results
will display from around the site. Both homes for sale and sold properties can be searched across the region. Discover more in-depth data. The data in this Facts&Trends publication is brought to life on the new RuhlHomes.com. You can see if individual markets are Buyer’s or Seller’s Markets, compare the current activity, and even research statistics by price range. The data is dynamic, and you can adjust it in real-time. Explore our local communities. Find out market trends in each of
our communities. Learn about local attractions, amenities and what makes each of our towns unique and special. Save and customize your experience. The new My Ruhl section quickly connects you to your agent, allows you to save your searches and helps you keep a list of your rolling top three favorite homes. You can also sign up for our “Listing Alert” to be the first to know about new homes on the market. Better refine your search. Once you receive results for an area, you will be able to easily narrow your search with the filter. It includes traditional parameters like bedrooms, bathrooms and price. Additional options include the number of cars a garage can fit, total finished square footage, etc. Ask what your home is worth. Type in your property address to receive an automatic evaluation of your home’s current price. Just remember that computer-generated values vary widely and are never as accurate as a local real estate expert. This is just the beginning. There will be many more features coming soon to RuhlHomes.com! Stay tuned for more details as we continue to improve our technology as one of the many ways we help you move from the life you have to the life of your dreams.
Regional New Construction Inventory & Home Sales Through September Cedar Rapids Area Houses Condos/Villas Dubuque Area Houses Condos/Villas Illinois Quad Cities (Rock Island County) Houses Condos/Villas Iowa Quad Cities (Scott County) Houses Condos/Villas Iowa City Area Houses Condos/Villas Total Regional Combined 6 • RuhlHomes.com
Active Inventory 9/30/16
154 79 75 44 26 18 5 4 1 90 70 20 276 128 148 569
Active Inventory 9/30/17
132 93 39 60 41 19 6 5 1 97 74 23 305 147 158 600
Active Inventory 9/30/18
147 95 52 59 35 24 11 7 4 101 83 18 316 119 197 634
% Change in Inventory from 2017
+11% +2% +33% -2% -15% +26% +83% +40% +300% +4% +12% -22% +4% -19% +25% +6%
Sales 2016
233 136 97 75 65 10 10 7 3 174 132 42 358 205 153 850
Sales 2017
274 159 115 65 49 16 7 6 1 165 113 52 352 185 167 863
Sales 2018
249 174 75 66 48 18 5 5 0 165 124 41 411 194 217 896
% Change in Sales from 2017
-9% +9% -35% +2% -2% +13% -29% -17% -100% 0% +10% -21% +17% +5% +30% +4%
Building Slows as Costs Continue to Rise
New Housing Starts Through September Burlington Area Burlington West Burlington Cedar Rapids Area Cedar Rapids Marion Rural Linn County Hiawatha Dubuque Area Dubuque East Dubuque Galena Jo Daviess County Peosta Surrounding Dubuque Area Illinois Quad Cities Moline & Coal Valley Rock Island East Moline & Hampton Colona Port Byron Geneseo Rural Rock Island County & Milan Silvis Whiteside County Iowa Quad Cities Davenport Bettendorf Rural Scott County Eldridge & Long Grove LeClaire & Princeton Blue Grass - city of Iowa City Area Iowa City Coralville North Liberty Rural Johnson County West Branch Williamsburg, Wellman & Kalona West Liberty & Tipton Muscatine Area Muscatine Muscatine County Wilton Other Areas Clinton, Camanche & Fulton DeWitt Maquoketa, Preston & Bellevue Total Regional Starts
2015 2008
26 13 13 459 236 133 72 18 195 54 1 3 19 9 109 66 10 9 0 2 1 9 16 2 17 290 55 115 53 30 33 4 295 98 17 104 64 2 6 4 28 9 18 1 30 9 10 11 1,389
2016 22 22 0 475 231 138 83 23 256 86 0 8 31 14 117 123 71 4 3 3 1 7 24 1 9 358 83 132 56 41 38 8 265 111 13 72 60 4 1 4 27 3 21 3 37 15 9 13 1,563
2017
2018
17 15 2 410 160 144 88 18 199 51 3 1 23 22 99 93 41 0 3 2 0 4 28 2 13 290 83 113 34 32 20 8 277 126 16 80 31 7 5 12 32 8 21 3 42 26 7 9 1,360
8 6 2 335 115 123 82 15 188 48 0 1 16 16 107 73 17 2 1 4 1 6 21 7 14 241 54 84 51 25 23 4 247 77 10 88 37 20 11 4 32 4 27 1 39 17 11 11 1,163
% Change 2017 vs. 2018 -53% -60% 0% -18% -28% -15% -7% -17% -6% -6% -100% 0% -30% -27% +8% -22% -59% +200% -67% +100% +100% +50% -25% +250% +8% -17% -35% -26% +50% -22% +15% -50% -11% -39% -38% +10% +19% +186% +120% -67% 0% -50% +29% -67% -7% -35% +57% +22% -14%
Source: Municipal offices. There may be additional new homes built which are not included with this data.
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New home sales momentum from the second quarter could not be sustained during the 3rd quarter, leading to a regional slowdown in home construction. For YTD 2018, total combined sales of houses and condos are up by 4%. House sales are up by 6% while condo sales matched the total for the same time last year. As building slowed, available inventories dropped; by 6% for houses and 23% for condos. Condos represent 39% of YTD sales, but nearly 47% of current available inventory. Houses, conversely, made up 61% of sales, but only 53% of the inventory at the end of the 3rd quarter. House inventory prices balance well with sales prices. There is an abundance of higher priced condos leaving that segment with a need for more mid-range units, based upon YTD sales totals. New home sales have accounted for 1 in every 10 home sales in the region YTD. The chart below demonstrates changes in selling prices over the past several years: Houses: YTD 2018 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Below $300K 28% 33% 39% $300 - $400K 39% 38% 37% Above $400K 33% 29% 24% Condos: YTD 2018 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Below $200K 20% 37% 36% $200 - $300K 65% 46% 46% Above $300K 15% 17% 18%
CEDAR RAPIDS: Sales in the market are down 9% YTD as a 9% increase in house sales has been unable to overcome a 35% YTD loss in condo sales. Available condo inventory has jumped by 33%, but is less than a 5 month supply. House inventory is at about the same level. Houses $200$350K represented 73% of sales, while the strongest range in condo sales was $150-$200K at 69% of sales. The College Community District is the only market segment showing a sales gain - up 17%. DUBUQUE: Both sales and inventory levels are stable, when compared to the same time last year. Sales of houses $300-$400K are up 90% YTD, while house sales above $400K are down 73%. In condo sales, the only real increase is a 150% upswing at $300-$400K. Reduced house availability has been overcome by a 26% increase in the new condo supply currently at over 10 months. IOWA CITY: In this area, 3 of 4 segments have shown new home sales increases YTD. Coralville-Tiffin leads the way with an overall increase of 29%, followed by
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Building Slows as Costs Rise continued from page 7
Iowa City at 18% and North Liberty at 13%. An 18% sales reduction in outlying areas left the market with a 17% increase in sales. House sales are up 5% and condo sales jumped 30% - 62% of all new condo sales across the region. Overall sales in this market were 46% of all regional new home sales. Inventory figures are stable vs. 2017, with only Iowa City condos $350-700K showing imbalance, with an 18 month current
supply. 1 in every 5 homes sold was new. QUAD CITIES: Slowed new home sales left this market down 1% YTD. House sales are up 8%. Condo sales dropped 21%. Houses above $400K were 46% of sales, while houses $300-400K were 42% of sales. Houses below $300K and condos below $200K combined for only 12% of new home sales YTD. Overall unit inventory is up 15%. The QCA has the highest existing to new home sales ratio in the region at 18 to 1, with an average
new house sales price of over $450K. During the last quarter, materials prices continued to rise and regulations for development and building have remained in place. With unstable weather conditions and unpredictable trade implications, we must assume that building costs will not be reduced in the near future. Under these conditions, expect to see fewer spec homes available, with builders concentrating their resources on pre-sold contract homes.
Caroline Ruhl, CEO Chris Beason, President
RuhlHomes.com Follow Us Online At: For further information or to be added to our mailing list, contact Caroline Ruhl or Veronica Pianca • 563.355.7474 5403 Victoria Avenue, Suite 100 • Davenport, Iowa 52807-3925 • CarolineRuhl@RuhlHomes.com or VeronicaPianca@RuhlHomes.com 8 • RuhlHomes.com