MARKET UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2023
SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND
Pioneering new benchmarks in property intelligence, know-how and innovation since 1994. RPM’s proven track record has cemented us as the industry experts. We are proud to be the Platinum Research Partner of UDIA VIC and Institute partner of UDIA QLD. We are known for outselling more land than our competitors while consistently adding value for our clients; from early engagement through to every stage of the project life cycle. We have now brought our industry-leading, data-driven approach to the SEQ property market offering services including: •
Communities - including sales management, marketing consultancy and project management
•
Medium Density and Apartments
•
Transactions & Advisory - including development site acquisitions and disposal
•
Research, Data & Insights - comprehensive research and reporting
Overview and outlook • South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP) lays out the
SEQ has appropriately zoned, well-located greenfield
State Government’s approach to development in the next
land. However, many areas have so far lacked the required
25 years, however complex challenges remain.
infrastructure needed to best unlock the land’s potential or are
• Calls for the development industry to build up rather than out at a time when higher density projects are simply too costly to construct has been met with some frustration. • South East Queensland’s population records its highest annual gain, spurring strong demand for housing. • Property purchases continue to gain traction as the market remains robust.
highly constrained by issues that make it unfeasible to develop. Future access to greenfield land is further challenged by the SEQRP’s recently adjusted 70/30 infill/greenfield strategy which belies the fact that historically, the heavy lifting for new housing supply has been done by greenfield developments. Additionally, the recent surge in construction costs (30% in the last 12 months) has seen high-density apartment construction grow to nearly $5,000 per square metre – which does not provide significant supply at an affordable price point.
As our region prepares for unprecedented population growth, the spotlight has firmly fixed on the recently unveiled 2023
The intent of the SEQRP appears promising from a long-term
Draft South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), which
perspective. The current review is certainly a step in the
looks to address the current and future challenges for the
right direction, but it is not to say we are without immediate
residential property market.
challenges. We welcome the government response to the housing crisis, particularly those that address streamlining
The key issue surrounding the South East Queensland
approvals, zoning, and land-use regulations.
(SEQ) housing crisis is the constrained supply over many years, which is set to deepen without intervention. August
There is a very real need for workable solutions that facilitate
projections show that approximately 35,000 new homes
more supply while maintaining a responsible approach
must be built each year to 2046 to meet the demands of
to development. The desired path forward requires all
our rapidly growing population. This surge, as highlighted in
levels of government and industry to work together for the
our previous SEQ Market Update, continues to be driven by
efficient delivery of a diverse range of housing solutions that
domestic and international migration, as well as a notable
address the urban boundaries, the seamless integration of
uptick in single-person households; now comprising 40.5%
infrastructure, and housing planning. These considerations will
of all household types.
set the trajectory for SEQ’s future housing supply.
Moreover, market confidence has been revived by three
Should you require further details, please visit:
interest rate pauses. This, coupled with the widely held belief
www.rpmgrp.com.au. For a detailed market analysis,
that interest rates have peaked, is bolstering many to start
or a special report, email our dedicated Research,
planning for property purchase. The property market remains
Data & Insights team at contactus@rpmgrp.com.au.
strong in SEQ, as evidenced by high clearance rates. New listings are on the rise; however, the overall number of listings remains below previous years – indicating that demand is rapidly absorbing new supply. Over the last quarter, key masterplanned communities have delivered strong sales figures, offering another encouraging sign that the appetite for land has resurged. The most sought-
Clinton Trezise Managing Director - QLD clinton@rpmgrp.com.au
after developments are those that are thoughtfully designed, complete with amenities and essential infrastructure, followed closely by areas with undersupplied land within
Peter Neale
their catchment areas. This mirrors trends witnessed in the
Managing Director - QLD
Victorian greenfield market, where developers are eagerly
petern@rpmgrp.com.au
competing to secure PSP-approved land.
3
What’s inside
opulation 10 Pgrowth
12
Finance and affordability
14
Building data
Queensland’s strongest
Borrowing capacity
Apartment approvals
population growth on record.
remains constrained.
surge while Brisbane sees smaller houses and rising construction costs.
4
RPM SEQ Market Update
18
Property prices Greater Brisbane Greater Brisbane property
2023 26 Feature: Draft South East
does the 33 What SEQRP mean
Queensland Regional Plan
for greenfield development sites?
A strategic roadmap that
PFGAs a crucial factor
focuses on growth, diversity,
to the future of SEQ’s
and affordability.
population growth.
prices remain resilient.
5
A data driven, holistic approach to property RPM’s Research, Data & Insights division provides in-depth analysis on current local and international economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS
This rich data helps our team and clients better understand:
analysts who provide analytical and strategic advice based on real-time market intelligence and insights.
Volume of lots sold or allocated by lot size, frontage, price point, developer, land estate type and location
Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPMs developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities.
Dollar per SQM rates Stock release levels Volume of cancellations on a monthly basis by estate Distribution of new land products by estate
Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales target on their estates. We track approximately 600 land estates along the eastern seaboard; collecting extensive data and providing our clients a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.
Performance and distribution of lots of a particular frontage and depth Distribution of price points across a product range Percentage of new land sold within set price ranges Level of activity across a product type, project, market, developer and region Stock level and fluctuations by product type, land estate, developer and market Age of stock, how long has it been advertised, and subsequent price movements based on time on market
6
RPM SEQ Market Update
At RPM, we always start with in-depth research and data-driven insights. When we are guided by data, analysis and key findings, we maximise success. Michael Staedler Group Manager Research, Data & Insights
Lead indicators
NATIONAL Cash Rate - Sep 2023
Consumer Price Index - Jun 2023
4.10%
6%
With the cash rate unchanged since June.
In the year to June 2023.
GDP - FY 2023
Population Growth - Mar 2023
3.4%
563,200
Above the 10 year pre-pandemic average of 2.6%.
For the year to March - the highest annual gain on record.
Consumer Sentiment Index - Aug 23
Unemployment Rate - Aug 2023
81.0
3.70%
In August, dipping 0.4% for the month.
In August, remaining relatively stable this year.
Source: ABS, REIQ, Pricefinder, Westpac Melbourne Institute
8
RPM SEQ Market Update
QUEENSLAND Population Growth - Mar 2023
Brisbane Median House Price - Jun 2023
124,200
$775,000
In the year to March - the highest annual
Up 0.6% for the quarter and down 2.5% for the year.
gain on record.
New house approvals - Jul 2023
Vacancy rate - Jun 2023
-11.2%
1.0%
Down in the year to July 2023, despite apartment
In June, easing slightly from March, but still well
approvals increasing.
below market equilibrium.
QLD Unemployment Rate - Aug 2023
New House Starts - Mar 2023
4.10%
8,239
In August, remaining slightly above the national
For the entire state in Q1 2023. Down 2% for the quarter.
rate of 3.7%
9
Population growth Queensland’s strongest population growth on record. In the year to March 2023, Queensland experienced its
While Brisbane and Gold Coast are expected to see much
strongest annual population growth to date, with an annual
of this growth, with nearly 840,000 new residents expected
gain of 124,200 new residents. This significant increase can
across the two council areas, Brisbane’s outer ring of Logan,
be attributed to a combination of domestic migration and an
Ipswich, and Moreton Bay are also expected to grow by nearly
influx of new international settlers, following the post-pandemic
910,000 residents over the same period – marking a significant
reopening of international borders.
need to focus on infrastructure and planning in these regions over the next 25 years.
Additionally, the state government has recently released revised population forecasts for SEQ council areas. The forecasts indicate the sustained growth pattern will extend until 2046; anticipating an additional 2.16 million people to join the region’s populace. As a result, the total population is projected to approach six million.
10
RPM SEQ Market Update
Population Forecasts 2,000,000
140%
1,800,000
120%
1,600,000 100%
1,400,000 1,200,000
80%
1,000,000 60%
800,000 600,000
40%
400,000 20%
200,000 -
0% Brisbane
2021 population
Gold Coast
Ipswich
Lockyer Valley
Logan
Additional population Change % 2021 population
LGA
Moreton Bay
Noosa
Redland
Additional population 2046
Scenic Rim
Somerset
Subshine Coast
Toowoomba
Source: Draft SEQ Regional Plan 2023 Change %
2021
2046
Change
Change %
Annual Change
Brisbane
1,264,000
1,721,000
457,000
36%
18,280
Gold Coast
633,800
1,015,000
381,200
60%
15,248
Ipswich
233,300
528,000
294,700
126%
11,788
Lockyer Valley
41,800
66,000
24,200
58%
968
Logan
350,700
662,000
311,300
89%
12,452
Moreton Bay
484,400
787,000
302,600
62%
12,104
Noosa
56,900
76,000
19,100
34%
764
Redland
161,700
212,000
50,300
31%
2,012
Scenic Rim
43,600
67,000
23,400
54%
936
Somerset
25,400
41,000
15,600
61%
624
Sunshine Coast
346,600
553,000
206,400
60%
8,256
Toowoomba
144,000
220,000
76,000
53%
3,040
South East Queensland
3,786,200
5,948,000
2,161,800
57%
86,472 Source: 2023 Draft SEQRP
11
Finance and affordability Borrowing capacity remains constrained. The cash rate held steady at 4.1% in September, making it
Queensland recorded a 21% decline in owner occupier loans
the third consecutive month of unchanged rates. While
and a 25% decline in investor loans for the year to June 2023.
this period of stability has offered some reprieve for buyer
The sole exception to this trend was construction loans for
confidence and strained household budgets, borrowing
investors, which saw a 3% annual increase. This growth can
capacity remains constrained for potential homebuyers.
be attributed to investors in off-the-plan land purchases where
In most cases, borrowing power has diminished by at least
the land registered in FY22/23.
30% compared to early last year. As the table to the right shows, households with an annual income of $120,000 can now borrow just under $660,000 compared to $936,000 in April last year, a reduction of more than $277,000 in under 18 months.
Spotlight on buying power $120,000 household income - Couples without dependants Borrowing capacity*
The challenges related to loan serviceability, coupled with elevated repayments and reduced property listings, are not going unnoticed – as evidenced by the lower loan numbers for FY22/23.
Apr 2022 - $936,444
Aug 2023 - $658,889
Reduction: $277,566 * This considers a household with average expenditures as defined by the Household Expenditure Survey (HEM).
Purchase Capacity
Purchase Capacity
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0 $80,000
April 2022
12
$90,000
$100,000
August 2023
RPM SEQ Market Update
$110,000
April 2022
$120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000
August 2023
Reduction ($)
ReductionSource: (%) CBA Borrowing Calculator and ABS
QLD Owner Occupier Loans
QLD Owner Occupier Loans
120,000 102,257 100,000 81,142 80,000
72,459 58,162
60,000 40,000 20,000
10,036 6,835 -21%
0
Construction loans
Total Housing -20,000 FY22
FY23
4,226 -32%
3,407
-19%
5,813 4,031
-20%
New Dwelling
-31%
Land Residential land
Existing Dwelling
Source: ABS
Change %
QLD Investor Loans QLD Investor Loans 60,000
54,593
50,000 42,143
41,031 40,000
28,960
30,000 20,000 4,888
10,000
5,049
Total Housing -10,000 FY22
FY23
1,813 1,716
3%
-25%
0
Construction loans
2,642 2,142
-5%
-31%
-19%
New Dwelling
Existing Dwelling
Residential Land land
Source: ABS
Change %
QLD First Home Buyer Loans
First home Buyer Loans QLD
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
New FHB Loans
New FHB Loans
Average
May-23
Jul-22
Dec-22
Feb-22
Apr-21
Sep-21
Nov-20
Jan-20
Jun-20
Aug-19
Oct-18
Mar-19
May-18
Jul-17
Dec-17
Feb-17
Apr-16
Sep-16
Nov-15
Jan-15
Jun-15
Aug-14
Oct-13
Mar-14
May-13
Jul-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-11
Sep-11
Nov-10
Jan-10
Jun-10
Aug-09
Oct-08
Average
Mar-09
May-08
Jul-07
Dec-07
Feb-07
Apr-06
Sep-06
Jun-05
Nov-05
0
Source: ABS
13
Building data Apartment approvals surge while Brisbane sees smaller houses and rising construction costs. Although supply chain challenges have started to ease, and
The Q2 2023 data for new house sizes shows that Brisbane
material costs are stabilising, labour and skill shortages continue
has an average size of 237sqm - ranking the third smallest
to pose a significant challenge for Queensland’s construction
across all capital cities. This is a 9.6% drop from the 263sqm
industry. This is more pronounced given the major infrastructure
recorded in June 2022, and likely attributable to the rise in
projects leading to the 2032 Olympic Games have sparked
construction costs and challenges in housing affordability.
a competition for trade resources between residential and According to the latest HIA report, as of June 2023, Brisbane’s
commercial sectors – pushing labour costs higher.
average build cost per square metre stood at $1,865 – placing In terms of building approvals, in the year to June 2023,
it as the third most expensive capital city for construction
Queensland saw a 13% decrease in new house and townhome
cost, trailing behind Hobart and Sydney. This represents a
approvals. However, apartment approvals saw a 19% increase
substantial 28.9% increase from the $1,446 reported in June
during the same period. Notably, apartments with nine or
2022; a rate which has been accelerated by the reduced
more levels saw a significant 43% increase in approvals.
average household size.
Although approvals have increased, SEQ’s limited number of construction companies means that most apartment projects
However, we should note that RPM’s builder contacts suggest
are being considered unfeasible to build.
that very few builds are being completed at under the $2,000 mark considering the present climate.
Average home build cost and size
Average Build Cost and Size Capital Cities
340
$2,500 320
320 300
$1,865
$1,857
$1,848
300
$2,000 $1,767
$1,650
280
$1,457 261
260
255
260 240
$2,209
$2,059
258
$1,500
$1,264
237
$1,000
222 220 200
$500 173
180 160
$Brisbane
Sydney
Average Floor Area (sqm)
14
Melbourne
Adelaide
Perth
Average Average Value ($ perFloor sqm)Area (sqm)
RPM SEQ Market Update
Hobart
Darwin
Average value ($ per sqm)
Canberra
Capitals
Source: HIA June 2023
Although supply chain challenges have started to ease, and material costs are stabilising, labour and skill shortages continue to pose a significant challenge for Queensland’s construction industry.
15
16
Units and Other Dwellings
RPM SEQ Market Update
Houses
Units and Other Dwellings
Houses
Jul-2020
Mar-2023
Jul-2022
Nov-2021
Mar-2021
Rest of State
Nov-2019
Mar-2019
Jul-2018
Nov-2017
Mar-2017
Jul-2016
Nov-2015
Mar-2015
Jul-2014
Nov-2013
Mar-2013
Jul-2012
Nov-2011
Mar-2011
Jul-2010
Nov-2009
Mar-2009
Jul-2008
Nov-2007
Mar-2007
Jul-2006
Nov-2005
Mar-2005
Jul-2004
Nov-2003
Capital Cities
Mar-2003
Jul-2002
Jun Qtr 23
Mar Qtr 23
Dec Qtr 22
Sep Qtr 22
Jun Qtr 22
Mar Qtr 22
Dec Qtr 21
Sep Qtr 21
Jun Qtr 21
Mar Qtr 21
Dec Qtr 20
Sep Qtr 20
Jun Qtr 20
Mar Qtr 20
Dec Qtr 19
Sep Qtr 19
Jun Qtr 19
Mar Qtr 19
Dec Qtr 18
Sep Qtr 18
Jun Qtr 18
Mar Qtr 18
Dec Qtr 17
Sep Qtr 17
Jun Qtr 17
Mar Qtr 17
Dec Qtr 16
Sep Qtr 16
Jun Qtr 16
Mar Qtr 16
Dec Qtr 15
Sep Qtr 15
Jun Qtr 15
Mar Qtr 15
Dec Qtr 14
Sep Qtr 14
Jun Qtr 14
1,000
Nov-2001
Mar-2001
Building data Average Value per Square Metre
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
Source: HIA June 2023
Dwellings Under Construction QLD Dwellings Under Construction QLD
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Source: ABS
Building Approvals QLD 30,000
24,333
25,000
21,076 20,000
15,000 9,712
10,000
8,189 5,881 4,238
5,000
Houses
FY22
Townhouses
Apartments
Source: ABS
FY23
Forecast QLD New Dwelling Starts 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
May 23 Forecasts
May 23 Forecasts
House Actual
Multi-unit Actual
Dec-25
Dec-24
Dec-23
Dec-22
Dec-21
Dec-20
Dec-19
Dec-18
Dec-17
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
5,000
Source: HIA June 2023
17
Property prices Greater Brisbane property prices remain resilient. Despite reduced borrowing capacities and higher financing
The median settled land price increased 5% over the year to
costs, Greater Brisbane property prices have remained
$320,000, while the settled land sales volumes remained
resilient in the year to June 2023. This is largely attributed to
understated at 3,681 for the year due to the high portion of
the lower levels of stock on the market; meaning prices have
untitled stock sold which is yet to settle.
been supported by underlying buyer demand. During the same period, the median unit price in Greater Greater Brisbane’s median house price reached $775,000
Brisbane surpassed the $500,000 mark. This 5% year-on-year
in June 2023; while this is down 2.5% for the year, it marks
gain marks the first time the unit market has broken through
a 0.6% gain for the quarter. The volume of house sales
the half-a-million-dollar price point.
experienced a sizeable 29% decline in the year to June 2023; a direct result of fewer listings entering the market.
18
RPM SEQ Market Update
Greater Brisbane House Prices Greater Brisbane Houses $900,000
14000
$800,000
12000
$700,000
10000
$600,000 $500,000
8000
$400,000
6000
$300,000
4000
$200,000
2000
$100,000
Sales Volume
Sales Volume
Median Price
Jun-23
Source: Pricefinder
Median Price
Greater Brisbane Unit Prices
Mar-23
Dec-22
Sep-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
0 Sep-18
$0
Greater Brisbane Units 8000
$600,000
7000
$500,000
6000 $400,000
5000 4000
$300,000
3000
$200,000
2000 $100,000
1000 0
Sales Volume
Sales Volume
Jun-23
Mar-23
Dec-22
Sep-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Sep-18
$0
Median Price
Source: Pricefinder
Median Price
Greater Brisbane Vacant Land
Greater Brisbane Vacant Land
$350,000
5000 4500
$300,000
4000
$250,000
3500 3000
$200,000
2500 $150,000
2000 1500
$100,000
1000
$50,000
500 0
Sales Volume
Sales Volume
Median Price
Jun-23
Mar-23
Dec-22
Sep-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Sep-18
$0
Median Price
Source: Pricefinder
19
Greenfield market SEQ’s greenfield market defies market headwinds with price increases. Despite higher interest rates and construction costs, SEQ
Logan emerged as the dominant player in the market,
greenfield prices continued to climb in the year to June 2023.
accounting for a substantial one-third of all settled sales
The median settled land price surged to $340,000, marking
throughout the financial year; its 1,323 sales surpassed all
a significant 12% increase over the course of the year. Among
other LGAs. Following closely behind were Ipswich (15%),
the regions, Scenic Rim stood out with the most substantial
Brisbane (12%), Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay (both at
price rise, boasting an impressive 23% gain, albeit from lower
11%). In contrast, the Gold Coast, with limited land supply,
sales volumes.
represented only 3% of the total land sales for the year.
SEQ witnessed a modest 2% growth in the median lot size
The data highlights the resilience and attractiveness of
across the year, bringing it to 448sqm, and resulting in a 5%
SEQ’s greenfield land market, where demand and pricing
rise in the median square metre rate. This pushed the SEQ
have managed to overcome economic challenges.
region to an average of $779 per square metre, reflecting the ongoing demand.
20
RPM SEQ Market Update
Median Land Price by LGA ($ 000’s) LGA
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21 Mar-22
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23
Jun-23
% change
Brisbane
411
415
380
493
613
642
620
640
630
560
-13%
Gold Coast
319
360
397
583
622
597
510
439
595
617
3%
Ipswich
215
222
233
246
265
267
283
284
288
302
13%
Lockyer Valley
123
155
195
149
197
157
162
247
240
175
11%
Logan
229
235
235
245
260
286
301
290
296
295
3%
Moreton Bay
281
283
282
310
325
367
369
347
401
350
-5%
Noosa
640
1,090
1,155
1,150
1,202
663
625
1,055
650
850
28%
Redland (excl. Islands)
371
405
418
525
570
577
567
600
647
570
-1%
Scenic Rim
182
185
189
196
199
212
264
242
249
260
23%
Somerset
157
154
210
138
250
227
247
136
160
195
-14%
Sunshine Coast
295
295
330
365
356
377
386
414
424
405
8%
Toowoomba
189
205
185
193
210
225
229
233
232
237
5%
SEQ
269
260
259
270
285
303
321
320
325
340
12%
Source: Pricefinder, RPM Research, Data & Insights
Median Land Size by LGA LGA
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21 Mar-22
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23
Jun-23
% change YOY
Brisbane
415
409
404
405
438
406
406
416
425
428
5%
Gold Coast
419
414
487
513
501
533
448
453
683
641
20%
Ipswich
402
416
448
434
439
404
402
400
420
448
11%
Lockyer Valley
661
600
1,680
634
602
646
628
607
602
760
18%
Logan
420
409
400
408
420
420
404
411
401
420
0%
Moreton Bay
404
400
392
400
400
402
400
378
405
400
0%
Noosa
605
633
671
605
531
642
844
607
1,000
833
30%
Redland (excl. Islands)
438
440
446
434
455
465
450
418
429
480
3%
Scenic Rim
645
640
695
600
568
581
801
800
701
806
39%
Somerset
1,012
875
1,019
914
911
822
849
1,012
862
839
2%
Sunshine Coast
400
375
378
375
350
373
375
391
375
396
6%
Toowoomba
703
623
721
668
643
643
783
723
697
769
20%
Total
420
414
413
421
441
441
420
421
436
448
2%
Source: Pricefinder, RPM Research, Data & Insights
21
Average size, price and $/sqm rates
Toowoomba Size
Price
Rate
650
$318,333
$492
LOCKYER VALLEY
TOOWOOMBA
Ipswich
22
RPM SEQ Market Update
Size
Price
Rate
465
$351,263
$756
Somerset Size
Price
Rate
650
$268,807
$424 Sunshine Coast Size
Price
Rate
445
$551,762
$1,223
SUNSHINE COAST
Moreton Bay MORETON BAY
Size
Price
Rate
438
$424,278
$1,012
SOMERSET
Brisbane Size
Price
Rate
469
$680,283
$1,509
Size
Price
Rate
477
$636,733
$1,346
Size
Price
Rate
508
$348,204
$722
BRISBANE REDLAND IPSWICH
Redland LOGAN
Logan GOLD COAST
SCENIC RIM
Gold Coast Scenic Rim Size
Price
Rate
638
$282,189
$454
Size
Price
Rate
588
$863,668
$1,598
Source: RPM Research Data & Insights
23
What does a 400sqm lot cost?
Upper Caboolture $305,000
Median lot price by suburb
Morayfield $378,375
Burpengary $366,667
Keperra $716,000 Upper Kedron $600,000
Collingwood Park $232,000
Spring Mountain $416,100 Deebing Heights $270,000 South Ripley $363,400
White Rock $384,950
24
RPM SEQ Market Update
Caboolture 325,500
Narangba $424,000
Carseldine $644,167
Newport $849,900
Mango Hill $639,000
Doolandella $490,000 Pallara $534,194
Ormiston $652,000
Parkingson $638,000
Victoria Point $558,333 Park Ridge $348,000
Redland Bay $423,500
Greenbank $366,000 Bahrs Scrub $310,667 Chambers Flat $332,667
Burleigh Heads $649,000 25
FE ATURE
2023 Draft South East Queensland Regional Plan A strategic roadmap that focuses on growth, diversity, and affordability. The release of the 2023 Draft South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP) in August marked a pivotal moment in the region’s ongoing efforts to address its population growth and housing challenges. This review, a response to the unprecedented surge in SEQ’s population growth, makes
Social and affordable housing A 20% sub-target for social and affordable housing has been included within the dwelling supply targets, aligning with the 2022 National Housing Accord’s goals.
significant amendments to the 2017 document.
Gentle density approach
Some key highlights include:
The Plan recognises the importance of gentle density, similar
Consolidation The Plan places a strong emphasis on consolidation as a solution to SEQ’s limited land availability. It shifts dwelling
to the missing middle concept in the 2017 Plan, in addressing housing supply and diversity.
Collaborative planning
growth ratios from 60/40 in 2017 (60% in infill areas and
The government commits to collaborating with the planning
40% in greenfield areas) to 70/30 in 2023.
system to identify opportunities for increased housing supply
Urban footprint The urban footprint has been revised based on recent research with 7,000 hectares being excluded from the Underutilised
and diversity, especially in areas supported by high-frequency public transport networks.
Policy interventions
Urban Footprint (UUF) and 20,000 hectares recognised as
The Plan highlights the potential need for policy interventions
long-term supply to be delivered through the resolution of
to address the housing and employment land supply and
local issues and roadblocks.
demand gap, considering local government planning schemes
New Potential Future Growth Areas (PFGAs) Four additional PFGAs have been identified in North Harbour, Stapylton, Westbrook, and Highfields. Elimbah and Southern Thornlands have been incorporated into the urban footprint, while Mount Kynoch and Meringandah/Kleinton have been
and infrastructure plans as foundational data sources. Overall, the updated document adopts a long-term approach to manage regional growth, recognising the need for consistent land supply to accommodate future population growth while safeguarding the region’s alluring lifestyle.
removed.
Diversity and density targets
View the full draft South East Queensland
Sub-targets for dwelling diversity and density have been
Regional Plan and the latest updates at the State
introduced to encourage various housing types and densities,
Development website:
supporting consolidation and regeneration.
26
RPM SEQ Market Update
State Development - SEQ Regional Plan
SEQ must increase its average long term dwelling production by 52% to accommodate the regional plans expectations Meeting the housing demand for the forecasted 2.16 million
Historically, SEQ has averaged around 22,778 lot registrations
new residents by 2046 will require the addition of 863,600
per year. This equates to a shortfall of 11,766 dwellings to
dwellings. This equates to an overall increase of 56%, or the
reach the annual target of 34,544 dwellings. In other words,
addition of an annual average of 34,544 new dwellings each
production needs to increase by 52% to meet its target.
year from 2021 onwards. As such without significant and comprehensive planning Queensland Treasury data highlights that SEQ has not
reform the state will find itself short in excess of 110,000
previously achieved such a high level of housing supply, with
dwellings within a decade.
the closest being 33,821 dwellings in the year to June 2017. During this period, Brisbane experienced a notable apartment boom, with unit registrations peaking at 17,494 for the year.
Dwellings
2021
2046 Dwellings Required
Additional Dwellings Required
Change
Annual Dwellings Required
Brisbane
518,500
728,200
209,700
40%
8,388
Gold Coast
271,400
429,500
158,100
58%
6,324
Ipswich
87,200
195,100
107,900
124%
4,316
Lockyer Valley
16,100
24,600
8,500
53%
340
Logan
125,700
234,100
108,400
86%
4,336
Moreton Bay
188,100
311,100
123,000
65%
4,920
Noosa
28,300
33,200
4,900
17%
196
Redland
65,000
85,000
20,000
31%
800
Scenic Rim
18,200
26,200
8,000
44%
320
Somerset
10,800
15,900
5,100
47%
204
Sunshine Coast
147,200
227,800
80,600
55%
3,224
Toowoomba
60,000
89,400
29,400
49%
1,176
Total
1,536,500
2,400,100
863,600
56%
34,544
Source: Draft SEQ Regional Plan 2023, RPM Research, Data & Insights
27
FE ATURE
SEQ Lot Registrations - 12 month rolling SEQ Lot Registrations - 12 month rolling 40000 Average dwellings required 34,544 pa
35000
52% increase
30000
in production required
Historical average lots registered 22,778 pa
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
28
Rural
Rural
Units
RPM SEQ Market Update
Units
Jun2023
Jun2022
Dec2022
Jun2021
Dec2021
Jun2020
Dec2020
Jun2019
Dec2019
Jun2018
Dec2018
Jun2017
Average Dwellings Required
Average Dwellings Required
Dec2017
Jun2016
Dec2016
Jun2015
Dec2015
Jun2014
Dec2014
Jun2013
Dec2013
Jun2012
Dec2012
Jun2011
Dec2011
Jun2010
Dec2010
Jun2009
Dec2009
Jun2008
Standard lots
Standard lots
Dec2008
Jun2007
Dec2007
Jun2006
Dec2006
Jun2005
Dec2005
Jun2004
Dec2004
0
Average since Jun 2004
Average since June 2004
Source: QLD Treasury 2023
SEQRP sets its sights on a 70/30 strategy, echoing Sydney and Melbourne, despite the prominence of its greenfield market. In addition to the ambitious new overall dwelling targets,
The table below shows the total new properties registered by
the SEQRP has also adjusted its 60/40 strategy to mirror
region, including the portion of which were units. Over the last
strategies adopted by the Sydney and Melbourne Plans.
12 months, 41% of new properties in SEQ were units, slightly
The revision has a 70% focus on consolidation within existing
higher than the 19-year average of 40% - Brisbane and Gold
urban areas and a 30% expansion into greenfield markets.
Coast have contributed significantly to this trend.
While this “build up rather than out” approach aims to maximise existing infrastructure for new housing, historically, the heavy lifting for new housing supply in SEQ has been done by greenfield developments.
LGA
Lot Type
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Ipswich
Lockyer Valley
Logan
Last 12 months
Average 2004-2023
Maximum
Total Registrations
4,497
6,573
13,471
% Units
58%
60%
81%
Total Registrations
3,249
4,328
8,384
% Units
78%
57%
81%
Total Registrations
2,789
1,935
3,302
% Units
12%
11%
20%
Total Registrations
168
228
526
% Units
8%
5%
30%
2,040
1,742
2,706
9%
20%
47%
2,406
3,434
4,448
26%
25%
31%
73
205
469
% Units
56%
42%
68%
Total Registrations
722
753
1,394
% Units
33%
24%
35%
Total Registrations
104
155
359
% Units
5%
13%
25%
Total Registrations
124
147
472
% Units
2%
4%
8%
Total Registrations
2,342
2,498
4,065
% Units
44%
33%
41%
Total Registrations
425
780
1,468
% Units
22%
28%
38%
18,939
22,778
33,821
41%
40%
52%
Total Registrations % Units
Moreton Bay
Total Registrations % Units
Noosa
Redland
Scenic Rim
Somerset
Sunshine Coast
Toowoomba
SEQ Total
Total Registrations
Total Registrations % Units
Source: QLD Treasury 2023
29
FE ATURE
Surging construction costs impact the feasibility of affordable high-density dwellings. One of the biggest challenges the market faces today is being
In the short term, the majority of affordable housing in
able to deliver new dwellings affordably. The recent surge in
SEQ is expected to come from greenfield developments.
construction costs has seen high-rise apartment construction
In September, approximately 16% of land lots on the market
grow to nearly $5,000 per square metre. This has limited
were priced under $300,000. Assuming a typical 45% land
the financial viability of projects to high-end owner occupier
value package, this means that one in six packages is priced
apartments which does not provide significant enough supply
at $670,000 or less, making them accessible for households
at the required price point - especially with reduced demand
earning around $120,000 per year.
from overseas investors compared to the mid 2010s. This affordability aspect could be further expanded with There is some relief for project feasibilities thanks to
the implementation of small lot planning provisions within
government concessions and incentives. These include
greenfield areas, as outlined in our previous SEQ Market
Brisbane Council’s recent announcement of a 75% fee
Update, and it is often the greenfield space which allows
reduction for certain apartments within inner-city and major
the flexibility of a wide range of property types.
area centres, or under build-to-rent schemes with an existing approval since 1 January 2022. A 50% fee reduction will be offered for similar inner-city apartments approved from 1 September onwards. Additionally, the Federal Government’s $15,000 New Home Bonus per dwelling offers support for states that exceed the required thresholds.
Stock on Market - August 2023 Stock on Market August 0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0 $200K $249K
$250K $299K
$300K $349K
$350K $399K
$400K $449K
$450K $499K
$500K $549K
$550K $599K
$600K $649K
$650K $699K
$700K $749K
$750K $799K
$800K $849K
$850K+
Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights
30
RPM SEQ Market Update
Is this enough to help the housing crisis?
The SEQRP’s focus on facilitating growth through density as
risk the region drifting into more challenging times without
opposed to expansion into the greenfield space means this is
the appropriate land use and infrastructure planning enacted
the smallest addition to SEQ’s urban footprint in the last two
today. This scenario becomes more concerning when we
decades (across five reviews). Approximately 3,250 hectares
consider the significant amount of time it takes for land
of combined residential and industrial land was added to
within the urban footprint to be developed – as witnessed in
the urban footprint; compared to the nearly 20,000-hectare
Caboolture West which is only now breaking ground despite
addition as seen in the 2017 Plan.
being declared a masterplanned area in 2012.
Considering the key takeout from the last review was the need to identify underutilised land within the existing footprint, this addition appears insufficient and comes at a time when providing new housing is more critical than ever. In fact, we
Changes to the Urban Footprint
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2009
2009 to 2016
2016-2023
2023-2046 (Draft)
+7,168 ha
+10,989 ha
+12,959 ha
+19,980 ha
+3,250 ha
Inclusions:
Inclusions:
Inclusions:
Inclusions:
Inclusions:
• Part of Park Ridge
• Part of Park Ridge
• Part of Yarrabilba PDA
• Greater Flagstone
• Elimbah
• Part of Yarrabilba
Elimbah industrial
• Part of Flagstone • Jimboomba • Logan Village • Bahrs Scrub • Harrisville • Peak Crossing • O ther minor additions
• Part of Port of Brisbane • Buccan • Part of Fernvale
• Part of Flagstone PDA • Caboolture West MPA • Southern Redland Bay development approval • Other significant
• Gatton North
urban amendments
• Significant additions
to council planning
in Toowoomba due
schemes (e.g. Flinders
to SEQ boundary
and Jimboomba)
and Yarrabilba Priority Development Areas • Caboolture West • Flinders and Southern Redland Bay
• Southern Thornlands • Smaller additions to Brisbane, Scenic Rim, Gold Coast, Redland, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba
change
Source: Shaping SEQ 2017 Background Paper, Urbis
31
FE ATURE
Practical realities require a greener focus. While the 2023 Draft SEQRP is a step towards addressing
By minimising the addition of greenfield areas within the urban
SEQ’s housing supply issues and accommodating its
footprint and restricting greenfield development to 30% of the
substantial population growth, it is important to acknowledge
total, there is a potential risk of producing fewer dwellings over
the complexities that arise when implementing the concept
a longer period and ending up with higher-priced end products.
of gentle density within existing areas. In practice, achieving substantial gentle density at scale, especially when
Balancing the need for consolidation with the practical
considering existing residents, can be a complex and time-
challenges of delivering it at scale is indeed a crucial aspect
consuming endeavour.
to consider in the planning process.
32
RPM SEQ Market Update
What does the SEQRP mean for greenfield development sites? The 2023 Draft SEQRP plays a key role in the future of SEQ’s
In addressing the current housing affordability challenges,
development land and its landowners. As mentioned, the Plan
the SEQRP focuses on well-located homes, planning for an
outlines a strategic framework for managing regional growth
additional 100,000 dwellings near jobs, transportation hubs,
and development. It is geared towards ensuring the timely
and well-serviced areas. To effectively manage this growth,
availability of land and housing while maintaining a balance
the Plan introduces the SEQ Infrastructure Supplement
between social, economic, and environmental considerations
(SEQIS) initiative, aimed at ensuring adequate transport and
within the 12 LGAs.
infrastructure development alongside population growth and urban expansion.
One of the central elements is the categorisation of land into three regional land uses: Urban Footprint, Regional Landscape
SEQ is a highly favoured region, with considerable interstate
and Rural Production Area, and the Rural Living Area. Notably,
and local developers seeking sites. Despite its complexities,
the Plan allows for additional urban development and growth
the 2023 Draft SEQRP signifies a pivotal moment for
beyond the current urban footprint boundary.
landowners within the identified growth areas. There has been a lack of large developable greenfield parcels entering the
Several areas have been identified for potential growth,
market in the last quarter, heightening competition for smaller
including Elimbah, Stapylton, Thornlands, Redland Bay,
sites being offered for sale this year. Large-scale land has been
Wellcamp, Yatala, and Beerburrum, along with Major
scarce due to development timeframe constraints, vendors
Development Areas (MDAs) at Elimbah North, Wellcamp,
with high expectations, or sites already being developer-held.
and Beerwah East. Furthermore, the Plan designates Potential Future Growth Areas (PFGAs) at Westbrook,
As these regions evolve and transform, it becomes more
Highlands, North Harbour, and Stapylton.
important than ever for landowners to understand the implications of these changes. Our Transactions & Advisory
As mentioned in the earlier sections of this report, an
division is actively engaged in these newly identified growth
additional 2.16 million will call SEQ home by 2046,
areas, equipped with expert knowledge to navigate and adapt
necessitating 900,000 more homes – marking the PFGAs
to the changes laid out.
a crucial factor to the future of SEQ’s population growth. While the SEQRP allows for expansion, it notably underscores the importance of increasing consolidation and raising densities within the urban footprint. This shift towards a 70/30 infill/sprawl ratio signifies a commitment to infill and consolidation as a prominent strategy. However, it is worth acknowledging the experience in Victoria, where the 70/30
Ed Wright National Director and Head of Transactions & Advisory
target has faced challenges due to the popularity of greenfield developments. PGFAs are pivotal in accommodating long-term urban growth for SEQ, playing a critical role in preserving land from fragmentation and facilitating urban development.
33
Our team Get in touch with our team Communities Clinton Trezise
Peter Neale
Managing Director - QLD
Managing Director - QLD
clinton@rpmgrp.com.au
petern@rpmgrp.com.au
Research, Data & Insights Michael Staedler
Simon Brinkman
Group Manager
Senior Research Analyst
m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
simon@rpmgrp.com.au
Transactions & Advisory
Ed Wright
Tim Hyland
National Director
National Strategy Manager
edwright@rpmgrp.com.au
tim@rpmgrp.com.au
Conor Cowhig Transactions Manager - Queensland conor@rpmgrp.com.au
34
RPM SEQ Market Update
Unlocking Australia's Property Landscape
Disclaimer Although all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this document, RPM Group takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.
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