Recent Hurricane Pattern in Florida: It Never Rains but It Pours From 1850 to 1955, there were only two periods when Florida went more than two years without getting hit by a hurricane: 1862-1864 and 19001902. Since 1955, the periods of inactivity are significantly more frequent and longer. There have been eight periods of three Wilma (121 mph, 5 deaths, $22.7B) or more years without a Landfall: Cape Romano hurricane strike. The years Dennis (121 mph, 2 deaths, $1.65B) when we do see hurricane Landfall: Santa Rosa Island activity in Florida are more Jeanne (111 mph, 3 deaths, $4.0B) pronounced as well. The Landfall: Hutchinson Island only two years since 1850 Ivan (107 mph, 9 deaths, $9.1B) to see four hurricanes hit Landfall: Pensacola Florida in a single season Frances (105 mph, 5 deaths, $9.5B) Landfall: Stuart were 2004 and 2005. Those Charley (150 mph, 8 deaths, $15.4B) two years of hyperactivity Landfall: Cayo Costa / Punta Gorda were sandwiched between four years of inactivity (2000-2003) and the current unprecedented stretch of eight years without a hurricane strike in the state. More about the timeline graphic: Notable storms are listed in grey font along the timeline. Details include approximate wind speed at time of initial impact in Florida, number of direct deaths (if any) caused by the storm and the estimated damages in 2008 dollars. The total number of storms per decade is listed in the shaded column on the left of the timeline.
Hurricanes in Florida, A Guessing Game with One Right Answer: Be Ready This year, “Top forecasters from Colorado State University” have predicted a mere nine named storms with three becoming hurricanes. In contrast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, that pretty much nailed the brutal cold that hit most of the country last winter, predicts “an active hurricane season” including “several hurricanes and tropical storms threatening Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard in September.” We’ll wait and see who – if either – gets it right. To be fair, there are more variables in the atmosphere than in an NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket, where the odds of correctly making an educated guess for the entire bracket is about one in 128 billion. Regardless of the predictions, each hurricane season should be a rallying cry to be prepared.
Organizations like RICOWI get ready every year to deploy teams (see page 12) in the event of a hurricane. FRSA has become involved in that organization and is building relationships with state and local government (see page 20) so that we will have a voice in what happens before, during and after a storm. Given eight years of quiet in the state, it is easy to predict that people, in general, will have other things on their minds this summer. As an Association and as roofing professionals, we have the opportunity to be ready in case this is the year. Weather or not – the lessons learned from attending the Governor’s Hurricane Conference and through cooperation with other agencies and organizations can make the difference when it matters.
–RFM–
2015
?
0 2010
No Hurricanes 2006-2013
8
2004-2005
2000 6
No Hurricanes 2000-2003
Opal (115 mph, 1 death, $1.5B) Landfall: Pensacola Beach
Andrew (167 mph, 15 deaths, $39.2B)
1990 3 1980 3 1970 8 1960 4
No Hurricanes 1988-1991
Landfall: Homestead
No Hurricanes 1980-1984 No Hurricanes 1976-1978 Eloise (125 mph, $400M) Landfall: Destin
No Hurricanes 1969-1971
Betsy (127 mph, 4 deaths, $953M)
No Hurricanes 1961-1963
Landfall: Key Largo
Donna (132 mph, 13 deaths, $2.19B)
No Hurricanes 1957-1959
Landfall: Conch Key Naples