Key findings SEGUE’s premise is sound. Overall the evaluation found that many of the initiative’s characteristics and its progress provide some level of support for the original premise of promoting both green job growth and job opportunities for low-skilled workers. The premise is also supported by much of the literature – particularly given the historical job access and quality of occupations in key sectors that compose the green economy such as construction and waste management. If moved into execution in its current form, SEGUE is unlikely to meet the original goal of generating a large number of high-road green jobs for disadvantaged workers in five to eight years, even if its efforts are limited to a specific sector of the green economy. In spite of its strong premise, the timeframe, E va l u a t i o n o f t h e S u s t a i n a b l e E m p l o y m e n t i n a G r ee n U S E c o n o m y ( S E G U E ) - I n i t i a t i v e i n D e v e l o p m e n t
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resources and expected scale of impacts that would frame its implementation in execution may not be achieved – if its visionary and complex goals are to be maintained. A number of factors limit the ability of this broad initiative to reach its potential. For instance, the investment models that could have national application (one industry-building strategy sponsored by SEGUE) are not likely to attract a volume of funds significant enough to yield job impacts in this relatively short time frame. In addition, to meet the initiative’s immediate employment goals, SEGUE must largely work with the current supply of green jobs, which is projected to grow modestly at best. Among the grantees, local industry demonstrations, such as full-service building energy retrofit operations, are more likely to have shorter-term impacts on job growth than other SEGUE activities. However, these efforts are largely contingent on state or municipal policy and economic conditions, as well as sector-specific characteristics. Though promising, these demonstrations are difficult to expand or bring to scale, except through a patchwork of efforts. The three sectors of the green economy that SEGUE has pursued – building energy retrofits, storm water infrastructure and solid waste recycling – are associated with much larger industries (construction, water management and waste management) which have long-standing institutions, organizations and practices that make transformation difficult. Enabling industries, such as capital finance, also have long-standing techniques and requirements that limit the possibility of immediate change. The industry-building endeavors of these on-the-ground demonstrations, which primarily include advocacy for local hiring agreements, operational supports and market analysis, would require continued long-term public or philanthropic funding in order to become self-sustaining. SEGUE has explored only a few of many possible industry-building strategies.
Some, such as supporting local policy advocacy, have been tested in multiple conditions and in many sectors. A few other industry-building strategies that have been part of the SEGUE portfolio, such as green entrepreneurial and small business development, need further time and research to determine whether further investments are warranted. Still others, such as funding of technological research, advocacy for green business tax policy or advocacy for environmental regulations (from national climate change to local building codes or real estate transaction requirements) were not part of SEGUE and have not been considered to date.