UPDATE
FORECASTS AND TRENDS BURKINA FASO We forecast political stability and security to continue to improve in Burkina Faso over the next year. After an election in 2015, the government has consolidated its hold on power and seems to have the broad backing of the military. The authorities also appear to be more effective at mitigating the terrorism threat in the capital, and the south and central parts of country. The terrorism threat will probably remain substantial in areas that border with Mali.
ETHIOPIA Opposition protests will almost certainly resume next year in Ethiopia. And in a significant escalation of tactics, it seems likely that opposition groups might attempt to challenge the government’s authority using hit-and-run type insurgent tactics in Amhara and Oromia. The government would almost certainly respond to such attacks with force, and it would probably crack down even harder on opposition protesters.
SOMALIA Al-Shabaab will in all probability expand its territory in central and southwestern Somalia, filling power vacuums left by troops withdrawals by Ethiopia and Uganda. However, we do not anticipate that Kenya will withdraw its troops from Somalia in 2017, despite growing domestic pressure to do so. This means that central Somalia is more vulnerable to Al-Shabaab expansion than southern Somalia.
MOZAMBIQUE Lower export earnings, public expenditure and foreign investment mean economic growth in Mozambique will slow in 2017. But it looks likely that the country will be able to renegotiate the terms of its debt conditions in the coming months. This would be a positive development and ease its isolation from capital markets. Gas prices also look likely to rise in the coming year, providing some much-needed revenue for the government.
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SIAS: STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2017
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA