The Ripon Forum - February 2024 by The Ripon Society

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IN “ TH TH E E by AG RO Ro E O LE be F O F r t EL N S. O N A S W al M U A ke S r K

“I’M A PRAGMATIC, POLICY-DRIVEN LAWMAKER.” Lori Chavez-DeRemer explains why she doesn’t view compromise as a dirty word.

February 2024 Volume 58, No. 1

MAN ON THE MOVE

A conversation with Michael McCaul about America’s place in the world and the threats facing our nation around the globe. Plus -

“Russia’s Crimean Gambit: Ten Years Later” by William Pomeranz “NATO at 75: Can Europe Defend Itself Without U.S. Support?” by Hans Binnendijk “The Prospects for Peace in Ukraine” by Mary Glantz www.riponsociety.org

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“Ideas that matter, since 1965.“ Volume 58, Number 1 Politics & Perspective

Cover Story

Protecting Our Kids from Social Media By Shelley Moore Capito Online platforms must be responsible for the content provided to our youth and tools must be in place to prevent harm.

MAN ON THE MOVE A Conversation with Michael McCaul If it’s hard keeping up with the Foreign Affairs Chairman, it’s because the world is on fire, and he’s trying to keep things from burning out of control.

The Role of NASA in the Age of Elon Musk By Robert S. Walker The private sector is playing an increasingly important role in space exploration. But the federal government still has a mission to perform, as well.

Russia’s Crimean Gambit By William Pomeranz Hindsight is 20/20, but the warning signs were visible from the start of Ukraine’s independence that Russia was not reconciled to this realignment.

Conservatives Must Seize the Opportunity to Lead on Education. Here’s How... By Frederick M. Hess & Michael McShane Democrats have fumbled their lead on education. But outside of school choice, Republicans have put forward few solutions to fill the policy vacuum.

NATO at 75: Can Europe Defend Itself? By Hans Binnendijk America’s transatlantic allies have responded to recent threats with unity and a recommitment to defense. But can they go it alone?

The Prospects for Peace in Ukraine By Mary Glantz Two years into the war between Ukraine and Russia, the chance of a negotiated settlement appears as elusive as the declaration of victory by either side.

Everyday Freedom By Lou Zickar In his latest book, good government expert Philip Howard argues that America is facing a bigger problem than mere bureaucratic dysfunction. The Obesity Epidemic: What Americans Can Do By Anand Parekh What will it take to solve the obesity crisis -increased personal responsibility or policy, systems, and environmental changes? The Illegal Immigration Election By Gary Sasse The crisis at the southern border has given the GOP an opportunity to show they can make a difference. Will they wait until next year to do so? Publisher The Ripon Society Jim Conzelman, President Editor Lou Zickar Deputy Editor Caroline Banaszak Advertising Coordinator Danielle Wagner

Editorial Board Thomas Tauke Erik Paulsen Billy Pitts Pamela Sederholm Jim Murtha John Feehery Sara Glenn

Debate — “The Affordable Care Act: Two Views...” 28

Obamacare Has Been a Success, and It’s Just the Start By Nicole Rapfogel

Obamacare has Three Key Failings and Needs To be Reformed By Brian Blase

Sections 3 31 32

In this Edition News & Events Ripon Profile of U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer

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RIPON FORUM February 2024

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THE RIPON SOCIETY HONORARY CONGRESSIONAL ADVISORY BOARD U.S. Senators: Shelley Moore Capito – Senate Co-Chair Todd Young – Senate Co-Chair Marsha Blackburn Bill Cassidy, M.D. Susan M. Collins Steve Daines Joni Ernst Deb Fischer John Hoeven Jerry Moran Mike Rounds Thom Tillis Roger Wicker U.S. Representatives: Larry Bucshon, M.D. – House Co-Chair Frank Lucas – House Co-Chair Mike Kelly – Vice Chair Dan Newhouse – Vice Chair Ann Wagner – Vice Chair Mark Amodei Kelly Armstrong Don Bacon Troy Balderson Andy Barr Stephanie Bice Mike Bost Vern Buchanan Michael C. Burgess, M.D. Ken Calvert Mike Carey Buddy Carter Tom Cole John Curtis Tom Emmer Ron Estes Brian Fitzpatrick Randy Feenstra Andrew Garbarino Kay Granger Garret Graves Sam Graves French Hill Bill Huizenga Dusty Johnson Dave Joyce John Joyce, M.D. Young Kim Darin LaHood Bob Latta Julia Letlow Brian Mast Michael McCaul Carol Miller John Moolenaar Blake Moore Jay Obernolte August Pfluger Guy Reschenthaler Cathy McMorris Rodgers Steve Scalise Adrian Smith Lloyd Smucker Pete Stauber Bryan Steil Glenn “GT” Thompson Mike Turner David Valadao Brad Wenstrup, D.P.M. Steve Womack

In this edition

With the United States facing more global threats than perhaps at any time since the end of World War II, The Ripon Forum caught up with House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul to get his read on these threats and the steps he believes Congress should take to confront them. McCaul has been on the move over the past year, leading bipartisan delegations to Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East to better understand the challenge that each of these volatile hotspots presents. Last month, he also led a delegation to America’s southern border to get a better sense of the crisis unfolding there. He is blunt in his assessment of the challenges facing America at home and around the globe. “The world is on fire right now,” McCaul stated, “and it’s time to recommit to a strong foreign policy that stands by our principles, ensures the safety of our citizens, and protects our jobs.” McCaul was also blunt in his assessment of the threat posed by Russia, and why U.S. leadership is so important in the months ahead. “The implications of a Putin victory would reach far beyond Ukraine’s borders,” he said. “Following the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, a U.S. decision to abandon Ukraine will make America less safe, convey weakness to our enemies, and make U.S. partners doubt our commitment.” It has been two years since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. It’s also been 10 years since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. William Pomeranz of the Kennan Institute examines both of these milestones in the context of history, and what both could mean for the future. “Opportunities were clearly lost to confront Russia for its aggression,” Pomeranz writes. “Going forward, however, we must understand that we are in a whole new world after Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory. We long thought imperialism was over after World War I and World War II, but it will take more than Cold War deterrence to confront Russia’s growing imperial appetites.” The war in Ukraine has also cast new light on the importance of NATO and Europe’s ability to defend itself. According to Hans Binnendijk of the Atlantic Council, while improvements have been made in Europe’s defensive capabilities, U.S. assistance will be critical for the foreseeable future. “The threats facing Europe are more dangerous now than at any time since the end of the Cold War,” Binnendijk writes. “With American leadership, the transatlantic allies have responded to those varied threats — especially Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine — with unity and a recommitment to defense. But Europe is not yet capable of meeting these threats alone.” Mary Glantz of the U.S. Institute of Peace examines the prospects for peace in Ukraine and finds little cause for hope. “The absence of a stalemate (or a clear victory by either side) means the prospects of a negotiated peace are slim,” Glantz writes in an essay. “Russia is loath to quit when it believes victory is just a matter of time. Ukraine cannot concede because doing so would mean the end of their state and the spread of horrors like those seen in Bucha and the currently occupied territories.” In other pieces for this latest edition, U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito looks at the impact of social media on young people and two measures she is supporting to keep our kids safe online. Former Chairman of the House Science Committee Bob Walker examines the U.S. space program and the role of NASA in the age of Elon Musk. Rick Hess and Michael McShane of the American Enterprise Institute say it’s time for conservatives to put forward a plan to improve education that goes beyond school choice, and have written a book with ideas to help conservatives achieve that goal. Attorney and good government expert Philip Howard also has a book out about another problem facing America — namely, the “corrosion of American culture” -- which I review in these pages. Dr. Anand Parekh of the Bipartisan Policy Center examines the obesity epidemic in America, and puts forward some recommendations on what Americans can do to confront this crisis head on. Veteran policy professional Gary Sasse looks at the crisis at our nation’s border and explains why he believes Republicans should move forward a positive plan to reform our immigration laws this election year. In our debate feature, Center for American Progress scholar Nicole Rapfogel and former Trump White House aide Brian Blase present two views of Obamacare. And in our latest Ripon Profile, Oregon Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer discusses her belief in bipartisanship and why she doesn’t view compromise as a dirty word. As always, we hope you enjoy this latest edition of The Ripon Forum, and encourage you to contact us with any questions or comments you may have. Lou Zickar, Editor louzickar@riponsociety.org RIPON FORUM February 2024

Politics & Perspective

Protecting Our Kids from Social Media by SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO Like many of you, I am concerned about the efprotect their information, disable addictive prodfect that social media is having on America’s youth. uct features, and opt out of algorithmic recomI have eight grandchildren, and while I am glad that mendations. The bill also gives parents new conwe are able to connect and stay in touch via social trols to help support their children and identify media, I am devastated to see the negative effects harmful behaviors, and provides parents and chilthese platforms can have on children. It’s important dren with a dedicated channel to report harm to that we do all we can to protect kids to the platform. To hold our children from online threats the platforms accountable, that pose a great risk to their dethe bill also requires regular velopment and their safety. These independent audits of social platforms must be responsible for media platforms. the content provided to our youth The bill gained momenand tools must be in place to pretum in the Commerce Comvent harm. mittee, but unfortunately has According to a U.S. Surnot yet received a floor vote geon General’s report, social despite passing in committee media presents a significant risk last July. With your help in of harm to children. More spevoicing support to your senacifically, the report tells us the tors, we can continue to build average teenager spends at least momentum to bring this bill 3.5 hours per day on social meto the floor. dia platforms, while also noting Another effort I’m workthat 64 percent of children are ing on that will help in our exposed to violent content, and quest to protect our youth is a third of girls aged 11-15 say legislation called the Eyes on they feel addicted to social methe Board Act, which is beOur children should dia platforms. On top of this, ing led by Commerce Comthe report confirmed that usage mittee Ranking Member Ted be focused on learning of these apps has been linked to Cruz (R-TX) and Senator Ted in school, not glued to poor sleep quality in children. Budd (R-NC). Currently, the TikTok videos Our children should be focused Universal Service Fund’s Eon learning in school, not glued Rate program helps connect in class. to TikTok videos in class. schools to the internet so that These troubling statistics every child has the same opshow just how important it is for portunities to learn. Howevparents to have a say in their children’s social media er, there is currently no provision that requires usage. At the same time, online platforms must be schools to prohibit the use of addictive social meresponsible for the content provided to our youth and dia apps that distract students. The Eyes on the tools must be in place to prevent harm. Board Act would help tackle this problem by enThe Kids Online Safety Act, of which I am an suring these dollars from the program are used for original cosponsor, is one of the many tools that can learning and not for children to use social media. help in this effort by shielding our most vulnerable Internet connectivity is vital for a 21st century population from patterned online risks. education, but social media only serves as a disSpecifically, this legislation would require social traction from online educational materials during media platforms to provide minors with options to the school day. 4

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The FCC is going forward with providing Wi-Fi just as is ensuring that kids are using internet access access on school buses with the hope that kids can for school work instead of being distracted by social do their homework on long bus rides. However, be- media posts. cause teachers are not present monitoring students’ Now is the time that we need to protect our chilinternet usage on a bus dren from dangers on ride, schools need to social media platforms ensure that productive and we need to ensure Internet connectivity is vital for a internet access is takthey are learning while ing place, rather than using a school’s inter21st century education, but social allowing for students net connection. RF media only serves as a distraction to scroll through their from online educational materials feeds and watch TikTok U.S. Senator Shelvideos. ley Moore Capito (Rduring the school day. I recognize the WV) is a member of th enormous benefits that Senate Committee on internet access holds Commerce, Science, & for future generations, and I want more children to Transportation, and also serves on the Appropriabe connected, especially in West Virginia. Howev- tions, Environment & Public Works, and Rules Comer, putting more control in parents’ hands when it mittees. Capito also serves as the vice chairman of comes to the social media usage of their children is the Senate Republican Conference, the 5th ranking an important tool to keep children safe and healthy, Republican in the U.S. Senate.

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The Role of NASA in the Age of Elon Musk by ROBERT S. WALKER When President Kennedy committed our nation President Reagan began the march toward to put a human on the Moon, he also created the quantifiable commercial activity with a series of initial architecture of the space program. Only the executive orders. The Department of Transportation government had the capacity to marshal the resources was assigned responsibility for regulating and necessary to achieve the goal. So facilitating commercial began a space program defined launches. In 1989, the first by government leadership, reliant U.S. licensed commercial upon government contractors, rocket made an orbital flight. and funded by Congress. It Under President Clinton, the worked. The achievement was Office of Commercial Space, monumental. which had been housed with the But we did not go to the Secretary of Transportation, Moon to stay. We made several was transferred to the Federal more visits and then moved on. Aviation Administration. That We created the Shuttle and the office has facilitated launch International Space Station, rate growth. magnificent achievements, but In the 21 st Century, the they took too long in gestation commercial space industry’s and cost far more than originally growth has blossomed. There intended. The reason for the are a growing number of delays and the expense was the government and industry inherent nature of government. missions. Satellites are Robert S. Walker Space became just one of the orbiting for communications, many congressional budget weather, navigation, priorities. Administrations reconnaissance, and timing. had to weigh space initiatives Near the turn of the President Reagan began the against other pressing priorities. century, young entrepreneurs march toward quantifiable Congressional enthusiasm like Elon Musk and Jeff commercial activity with a reflected which congressional Bezos took note of this districts got the money. growing sector. They saw series of executive orders A nascent space industry opportunities to develop new … In 1989, the first U.S. emerged in the late 1970s. The markets. They were space industry’s problem was that the licensed commercial rocket enthusiasts who had one huge only way to get to orbit was on advantage over many others made an orbital flight. a government rocket. The path in the space business. They was tortuous and expensive, had access to capital from the involving multiple steps. In the money they had reaped in the early 1980s the first commercial rocket emerged, dot.com revolution, and they were willing to risk that the Conestoga, from a company founded by former wealth in space ventures. astronaut Deke Slayton. But he found the process of The early efforts of Musk and Bezos took different multiple steps and licenses burdensome. When NASA tracks. Bezos preferred a gradual development insisted all commercial flights use the Shuttle, the of launch technology while Musk believed in an Conestoga died. approach of building, launching, and accepting early 6

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failures as learning experiences. Musk, for example, Glenn spaceships. Sierra Space will soon fly a new believed that assembling rockets horizontally would spacecraft that looks like a mini–Space Shuttle. save construction costs. He was told by the experts Space-based communication networks are widely in rocketry that the vehicles had to be assembled deployed by numerous domestic and international vertically. His first two Falcon 1 flights failed. Musk companies. Private space stations are being was nearly out of money when he succeeded with the developed. Commercial companies are building and third flight of the Falcon 1. SpaceX then qualified deploying Moon experiments. It is a vibrant sector a series of Falcons to fly real commercial missions. with significant non-governmental investment. Once reliability had been established, NASA saw SpaceX was the first to take advantage of NASA’s an opportunity to program to contract contract with SpaceX with private companies to fly even its most to do government crucial payloads. missions. But it is not The military also alone. Today, a thriving took advantage commercial space of reliability at community is providing reduced cost. the government with SpaceX branched innovation and cost out and deployed saving. Government a communication still has a major role. network of 5,200 NASA must be in the satellites, a commercial forefront of space success widely used, science missions including by Ukraine like the James Webb in its war with Russia. Telescope. And instead But as the of dominating all space success of SpaceX decisions, it now adds Near the turn of the century, young grew, questions expertise to a robust began to arise about network. A new era, the entrepreneurs like Elon Musk and Jeff whether the Federal Musk era, has arrived Bezos took note of this growing sector Government was and is thriving. RF too reliant on a … They had access to capital from the commercial entity Robert S. Walker money they had reaped in the dot.com without much peer represented the 16th revolution, and they were willing to risk District of Pennsylvania competition. What happens if SpaceX in the U.S. House of that wealth in space ventures. is unable to deliver Representatives from on its commitments? 1977 to 1997. He served The commercial as chairman of the space community answered. Blue Origin, the Bezos House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, company, has methodically developed its rocket and is the former chairman of the Commission on engine, the Vulcan. United Launch Alliance bought the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry. He is those engines for largely military use. The engines currently the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of also will be flown soon by Blue on its own New moonWalker Associates.

“Ideas that matter, since 1965.“

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Conservatives Must Seize the Opportunity to Lead on Education. Here’s How... by FREDERICK M. HESS & MICHAEL MCSHANE This impression, though, is the product of performative Chaotic campuses rife with double standards about the kinds of speech that merit protection. A Biden politics and clickbait controversies. The reality, as we administration determined to let student borrowers shrug explore in our new book, Getting Education Right, is off hundreds of billions in loans and stick taxpayers with that conservatives have a raft of practical solutions to the the tab. Progressive states working to eliminate advanced kitchen-table concerns of American families. Now, the place to start is by talking values — not math based on misguided notions of “equity.” Survey findings showing that, when asked about the purpose of wonkery. While many traditional conservatives can shy away from talk civics education, more about values, this is K–12 teachers mention unwise. Schools and environmental activism colleges are formative, than “knowledge of cultural institutions. social, political, and You wouldn’t know it civic institutions.” from reading the New Tack on prolonged York Times, but public school closures, campus sentiment leans sharply craziness, and declining right on education’s test scores, and it’s big cultural debates. In no great surprise that getting on the wrong side public confidence in of a bunch of 70-30 issues, the nation’s schools and Democrats have created colleges has plunged. remarkable opportunities This plunge has shaken for the right. That entails the public’s confidence Frederick M. Hess Michael McShane empowering parents, in Democrats (long embracing notions like seen as the party of the merit and hard work, While Democrats have fumbled teachers’ unions and and insisting that college the faculty lounge). their longtime lead on education, should be about learning But it also gives Republicans haven’t yet seized the rather than performative the GOP a historic baton. Indeed, other than school choice, politics. opportunity to lead on While the KIPP education. Unburdened it can seem like the right doesn’t have charter schools may have by longstanding many actionable ideas. retired their motto “Work relationships with Hard, Be Nice” as a the education blob, conservatives are well-positioned to stand up for common legacy of white supremacy culture, more than 80 percent of parents say they want their kids to work hard and be nice. sense, shared values, and much-needed rethinking. Yet, while Democrats have fumbled their longtime Three-quarters of voters think it important that students lead on education, Republicans haven’t yet seized the learn the “traditional values of Western civilization” and baton. Indeed, other than school choice, it can seem like more than 90 percent that they learn “how the Declaration the right doesn’t have many actionable ideas — with of Independence and the Constitution advanced freedom most of its energy consumed combating the left’s worst and equality.” Seventy percent of adults (and 55 percent ideas. It can be far from clear what Republicans are of Democrats!) don’t believe that race should factor into college admissions and over two-thirds think students actually for when it comes to education. 8

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should play on sports teams that reflect their biological an increasingly imitated move) mandated that state sex. agencies hire based on skills and experience rather than Leading with values allows conservatives to defend credentials, reducing the pressure to chase unnecessary common sense, sketch out common ground, and anchor degrees. Especially given sharp reductions in full-time policy in shared principles. Here, we’ll touch on a few student workloads over time, legislators should push key places conservatives should start. public colleges to develop three-year degree options Early childhood. Strengthening and supporting that will expedite degree completion and reduce costs. families should be front and center in any conservative K–12 excellence. Educational choice is good and education agenda. American important. But it can’t be families are struggling to the only thing conservatives find reliable, affordable early offer on K–12. After all, the childhood options. Democrats left has turned a potentially have responded by embracing healthy concern for “equity” the approach of Bill de Blasio’s to morph into a caricature New York, which consisted of — with school discipline, effectively tacking a couple rigorous grading, homework, extra grades onto the front end attendance policies, advanced of the city’s dysfunctional, instruction, and much else now unionized public school system. dismissed as “inequitable.” This meant embracing a K-12 Conservatives must offer a calendar, moving little kids better way. There’s a need for into big school buildings, and adults who will unflinchingly disrupting mom-and-pop and fight for classroom discipline, church-sponsored offerings. rigor, parental responsibility, This isn’t good enough. accountable schools, and good Families want options that are options for high-achievers as less institutional, more flexible, well as struggling students. closer to their employers, and Regardless of their race or open year-round. Virginia ethnicity, no student is wellGovernor Glenn Youngkin has served by chaotic schools, grade offered a different way forward. inflation, or low expectations. His new early childhood We need to say that, over and initiative cuts red tape, creates over. Not only should it be easy a virtual “Navigator” to help to defend these things, but it Conservatives must offer families find early childhood offers a terrific opportunity a better way. There’s a options, provides parents with to find common ground with a virtual wallet that aggregates beleaguered educators. need for adults who will public and private subsidies, There’s far more that needs unflinchingly fight for and partners with employers doing, of course. There are classroom discipline, rigor, and colleges to find physical opportunities to thoughtfully space and expand offerings. boost teacher pay, tackle parental responsibility, College costs. The cost of college groupthink, expand accountable schools, college keeps going up, and career and technical education, and good options for students and taxpayers are less tackle the use (and abuse) of and less confident in the return smartphones and AI, strengthen high-achievers as well as on investment. Democrats have civics, and much else. But these struggling students. responded with “free college” three pillars offer an auspicious, plans and calls to “forgive” ambitious place to start. RF student loans, turning a blind eye to root causes. There are better ways forward. On Frederick M. Hess is director of education policy Capitol Hill, Republicans have proposed requiring studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Michael colleges that accept federal student loans to put some McShane is director of research at EdChoice. They are skin in the game, holding them accountable for a the authors of the new book Getting Education Right: chunk of the cost if borrowers don’t make taxpayers A Conservative Vision for Improving Early Childhood, whole. Former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (in K–12, and College. RIPON FORUM February 2024

Review

Everyday Freedom

Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society by LOU ZICKAR For nearly 30 years now, author and attorney Philip he writes, people enjoyed what he calls “everyday freedoms,” Howard has been one of the leading voices for good government where they had “individual authority, at every level of society in America. His 1995 book, The Death of Common Sense, and every level of responsibility, to act as they feel appropriate, provided Republicans with a roadmap to reform the federal constrained only by the boundaries of law and by norms set by bureaucracy after they won control of Congress the preceding the employer or other institution.” In the 1960s, he contends, year. Similarly, his most recent book, called Not Accountable “freedom was reconceived as a concept of individual rights and reviewed in these pages last against anyone with authority” and year, pointed to the “political power “the framework of American law was of public employee unions” as the largely rebuilt.” He further writes source of government dysfunction, that the new framework included and recommended that public unions three mechanisms that were intended be declared unconstitutional as a to protect average Americans from way for the American people — and those who control the levers of power their elected leaders in Washington in our country. These mechanisms — to reduce dysfunction and regain included: control. - “Prescriptive rulebooks” that In his seventh and latest book, would dictate the “correct way” of a slim volume called Everyday doing things — “For forest rangers Freedom that was published last in national parks,” Howard writes, month, Howard makes what can “volumes of detailed rules replaced only be called a startling admission the pamphlet that used to guide their coming from a longtime good activities. Safety in the workplace government crusader — namely, was regulated not by unsafe practices Philip Howard that the American people today are but by thousands of rules— many facing a bigger problem than simply self-evident, trivial, or overbearing, bureaucratic dysfunction. “I now such as requirements to illuminate Howard makes what can see that the greater danger is not stairwells, maintain neat closets, and only be called a startling ineffective government,” Howard use industrial grade hammers. Before writes in the book’s preface, “but the 1960s, there was no such thing as admission coming the corrosion of American culture. thousand-page rulebooks.” from a longtime good Alienation has become a plague: - “Formal procedures” that were Many Americans no longer believe focused on process and forced officials government crusader — in America. That’s largely because, I to justify their decision-making — namely, that the American “These procedures soon took a life of argue here, they no longer have the people today are facing freedom to take responsibility in their their own,” Howard argues. “Giving daily choices. Persistent failures feed a permit to modernize infrastructure, a bigger problem than the frustration and seed a culture of or disciplining a public employee, simply bureaucratic distrust. Instead of focusing on how began to take years.” to make things work, Americans - A “new litmus test of individual dysfunction. obsess about what might go wrong.” rights” that essentially encouraged According to Howard, this and empowered people to sue — culture of alienation, frustration, and mistrust can be traced “Instead of being a protection against state power,” Howard back to the 1960s — a decade, he argues, that was not just a writes, “these new rights let people invoke state power to time of great political and cultural upheaval, but a time that address personal disappointments in the workplace or in schools. redefined for Americans what it means to be free. Before then, Almost any ordinary accident, say a fall on a playground, could 10

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be dressed up as an outrage with the benefit of hindsight. Why that would get in the way of getting the section rebuilt. In large wasn’t there better supervision of the kids at the swing set?” part because of this decision, the repairs were made in record While these mechanisms were intended to protect time, and the highway reopened in 12 days. Americans from those in positions of authority, Howard Howard cites Operation Warp Speed as another example of believes they also resulted in Americans — and especially those person in a position of authority — in this case, President Donald Americans who are in positions of authority — losing sight of Trump — putting his own judgement ahead of established rules the common good. and procedures. The result, of course, was that a Covid vaccine “Instead of a framework for human freedom,” he writes, was developed in record time, saving millions of lives as a result. “it’s an elaborate precautionary It is these kinds of value system aimed at precluding human judgements, as Howard calls them, error. Anything that goes wrong, that America must do more to any accident or disappointment, encourage and restore. “The cure is any disagreement, potentially not mainly new policies,” he writes, requires a legal solution. Instead “but new legal operating structures of charging officials to do what’s that re-empower Americans in their sensible, modern law presumes everyday choices. People must that the gravest risk is to leave have ‘everyday freedom,’ by which room for the judgment of people in I mean the individual authority, at positions of authority. Who knows every level of society and every what evil might be done by a school level of responsibility, to act as they principal, or environmental official, feel appropriate, constrained only or supervisor? Instead of nurturing by the boundaries of law and by social trust, law after the 1960s norms set by the employer or other infected society with distrust.” institution. People must be free So what’s the solution? For to draw on their skills, intuitions, Howard, it begins with giving and values when confronting people in positions of authority daily challenges. They must own the latitude to use their own good their actions. It is this ownership judgement. Here, he quotes James of choices that gives freedom its Madison, who wrote: “It is one power and makes it the source of of the most prominent features pride. That’s how things get done of the Constitution, a principle sensibly and fairly.” that pervades the whole system, Howard proposes scrapping that there should be the highest the legal framework that emerged possible degree of responsibility in from the 1960s and replacing it with all the Executive officers thereof; a new legal structure that: “replaces “I now see that the anything, therefore, which tends to red tape and self-interested rights greater danger is not lessen this responsibility is contrary with individual responsibility and ineffective government, to its spirit and intention.” In accountability. Instead of purging Howard’s view, the thousand-page authority to prevent abuse, this but the corrosion of rulebooks and formal procedures framework rebuilds clear lines American culture.” which have been written and put in of authority to make common – Philip Howard place since the 1960s run counter to choices, to oversee those choices, the “spirit and intention” of which and to define zones of protected Madison writes. freedom.” If there is a shortcoming Howard also holds up Pennsylvania Governor Josh in Howard’s book, it’s that this framework that he puts forward Shapiro as a recent example of a public official who put his own is rather broad. But the absence of his prescription should not judgement ahead of established procedure to address a crisis take away from the accuracy of his prognosis. facing his state. The crisis occurred in June of last year, when Indeed, until we can move away from a system that favors a truck delivering 8,500 gallons of gasoline crashed beneath rules and regulations over good judgement and common sense, an elevated section of I-95 in Philadelphia. The explosion and we will continue to have a nation marked more by distrust and resulting fire destroyed that section of highway, closing one dysfunction than the everyday freedom which, Howard rightly of the most highly trafficked corridors in the Northeast. After argues, has made America great. RF experts said it would take months to make the necessary repairs, Shapiro stepped in and suspended all the rules and regulations Lou Zickar serves as Editor of The Ripon Forum RIPON FORUM February 2024

The Obesity Epidemic: What Americans can Do by ANAND PAREKH Obesity is the most important health challenge and behavioral factors, in addition to poverty, the question arises: how have rates more than tripled in just facing America today. Even beyond its contribution to lower life two generations? The answer largely stems from the expectancy, multiple chronic conditions, suboptimal widespread availability and significant portion sizes of health, racial and geographic disparities, and staggering inexpensive, ultra-processed, and calorie-dense food health care costs, it also risks endangering the American consumed by the American public. This occurs in an environment where technology Dream. and lifestyles do not adequately More than a decade support physical activity. ago, in a seminal Bipartisan So, what will it take to solve Policy Center report entitled the obesity crisis: increased Lots to Lose, former cabinet personal responsibility or policy, secretaries Mike Leavitt, Dan systems, and environmental Glickman, Ann Veneman, and changes? The answer lies in Donna Shalala wrote “the both, as it is precisely the impacts of America’s obesity changes implemented through epidemic jeopardize our global the latter that make the former competitiveness and national more achievable. As highlighted security, directly undermining in my book Prevention First: our ability to cut the federal Policymaking for a Healthier debt, prepare and sustain a America (2019), citing the work highly productive workforce, of Duke University professor maintain our military strength, Dr. Kelly Brownell, the lack and compete effectively in the of emphasis on changing global economy.” Anand Parekh environmental conditions These words hold true has made it too difficult for today, and the statistics are Americans to exercise personal undeniable. According to What will it take to solve responsibility and freely make researchers from the Milken the obesity crisis: increased choices they would have Institute, the economic and preferred if more options were social costs of obesity in personal responsibility or available. It’s time to make the America reached a staggering policy, systems, and environhealthy choice the easy choice $1.4 trillion in 2018, or 6.76 mental changes? The answer for Americans. percent of the GDP. In addition, Education plays a crucial 1 in 3 young adults do not lies in both, as it is precisely role. It is imperative that more meet weight requirements for the changes implemented Americans understand and military service, and 19 percent adhere to the Dietary Guidelines of active-duty service members through the latter that make for Americans and the Physical have obesity, elevating their the former more achievable. Activity Guidelines for risk of musculoskeletal injuries Americans. A national nutrition by 33 percent. Obesity rates have skyrocketed from 13 percent education campaign, involving both the public and in the early 1960s to over 40 percent for adults today. private sectors, should be initiated, featuring inspiring While obesity is undoubtedly a complex chronic public figures who advocate for a healthy diet and disease influenced by social, environmental, genetic, provide guidance on cooking and preparing healthy 12

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foods. Menu labeling efforts, as well as front-ofto make SNAP more like WIC to limit purchases to package nutrition labeling, will empower Americans healthy foods. States, serving as the laboratories to make more health-conscious decisions. of democracy, should, at the very least, possess the Health care also has a role. Health care capability to pilot programs that provide incentives for professionals, particularly physicians, should receive healthy food and discourage unhealthy food. more extensive nutrition training and receive adequate Do we have evidence that these steps might reduce reimbursement for screening, brief intervention, obesity in America? We do, but these efforts need to and referral for obesity treatment. It is essential that be sustained. Huntington, WV, reduced its obesity more Americans with obesity have access to intensive rate from 45 percent to 32 percent within a decade; behavioral counseling, and overweight individuals Montana, Ohio, New York, and Minnesota also lowered with prediabetes should be connected to communitytheir respective obesity rates in the mid-2010s. The based diabetes prevention programs. Novel obesity common denominator in all these examples included medications, such as Wegovy, when combined with local schools, grocery stores, health care entities, and lifestyle modifications, offer new hope for millions other stakeholders forming coalitions to increase the of Americans seeking significant weight loss and availability of healthier food options throughout the the reduction of complications associated with community. obesity-related conditions; however, further longOn a more national scale, the mid-2010s saw a 43 term studies are necessary. percent drop in the obesity rates Congress should move swiftly to among 2- to 5-year old children remove Medicare’s prohibition over the previous decade, though on coverage of weight loss rates have since crept back up. medications, which will lead More recently, a national study private payers to follow suit. found a small but significant Most importantly, addressing decline in obesity among obesity requires a transformation children ages 5-18 after the in our food environment, focusing implementation of the Healthy, on increasing the affordability and Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010, accessibility of nutritious foods which introduced nutrition while reducing the availability of standards for school meals. unhealthy foods. Tackling obesity demands Working with the food persistent, bipartisan industry, we need to examine commitment from policymakers. public policies that contribute to Fifty years after President Nixon current consumption patterns. convened the first White House This involves assessing crop Conference on Food, Nutrition, Tackling obesity demands subsidies within the farm bill and Health, President Biden compared to incentives for appropriately hosted a second persistent, bipartisan farmers to grow fruits and conference in 2022 and commitment from vegetables. It encompasses unveiled a plan to reduce hunger policymakers. healthy food financing initiatives and obesity in America. The to bring grocery stores to 2024 presidential candidates underserved areas and provide should openly articulate their nutritious options in corner strategies for reducing obesity stores. Additionally, it involves closing tax loopholes in America. Congress should also consider launching a and eliminating business cost deductions related to bipartisan commission to identify public policies that advertising of unhealthy food and beverages to children. facilitate healthier food choices for Americans. Collaboration extends to encouraging the industry to We need all Americans to come together and call voluntarily reduce added sugar in food products, while out the obesity crisis for what it is: one of the 21st also considering taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, century’s greatest challenges, but one that can be which have been shown to reduce consumption. overcome. RF Furthermore, it includes implementing interventions for healthy eating and physical activity in schools. Anand Parekh, MD, MPH is the chief medical advisor Federal feeding programs such as SNAP, WIC, of the Bipartisan Policy Center, and former deputy and school meal and child nutrition programs should assistant secretary of health at the U.S. Department of be reauthorized. Policymakers should debate whether Health & Human Services. RIPON FORUM February 2024

The Illegal Immigration Election by GARY SASSE As school children, many of us were taught Emma There was a breakdown in the rule of law coupled with Lazarus’s poem affixed to the Statue of Liberty. She economic hardships in several Latin American nations. wrote, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled Smugglers began advising migrant asylum seekers how masses yearning to breathe free.” This aspirational vi- to game the American asylum system. Finally, the Biden sion has not been America’s immigration policy for Administration has exhibited a lackadaisical approach over a century for some very practical reasons. As Da- to controlling the southern border. The Liberal Patriot reported that in 2017 the Customs vid Leonhardt recently wrote in and Border Protection encountered The Atlantic, “Once a country has about 527,000 migrants trying to established borders, it must conenter the United States without lefront the unavoidable thorny issue gal authorization. By 2023 custom of which outsiders it should admit officials encountered over 3.2 miland which it should not.” lion. After a period of relatively libJohn Judis a co-author of eral immigration, the United States “Where Have All the Democrats enacted a quota system in 1921 to Gone” wrote in the Liberal Patriregulate the flow of migrants. It ot, “What’s novel about the Biden assigned immigration quotas based years has been the vastly expanded on the portion of nationalities reuse of parole and asylum in boostflected in the U.S. Census. As a ing immigration by those who result, 82 percent of the quota was could not hope to get through norallocated to Western and Northern mal legal channels.” Europe, 14 percent to Eastern and Traditionally refugees were Southern Europe, and 4 percent Gary Sasse eligible for asylum in the United for the remaining Eastern HemiStates if they had a well-founded sphere. This had a dampening imIn 2017 the Customs “fear of persecution” resulting pact on immigration to the United from their race, religion, nationalStates. The Cato Institute reported and Border Protection ity, or political opinion. President that the annual immigrant inflow encountered about Biden broadened the meaning of in 1924 equaled 0.63 percent of the 527,000 migrants “fear of persecution” to encomU.S. population; dropping to 0.05 pass domestic violence, police percent in 1940. trying to enter the brutality, sexual discrimination, In 1965, Congress replaced U.S. without legal and gang violence. It is reported the national origins quota system that his Administration even conwith immigration laws designed to authorization. By sidered including the threat of cliunite immigrant families and at2023 custom officials mate change. tract skilled workers. According to encountered over The first step to restore a susThe Center for Immigration Studtainable and common-sense apies, under the new law most of the 3.2 million. proach to control illegal immigraapplicants for immigration visas started coming from Asia and Latin America, and the tion would be to raise the bar on what constitutes “fear number of immigrants tripled from about 320,000 in the of persecution.” The standard should not be the current one of “a significant possibility,” but rather one pre1960s to over a million in 2000. Nevertheless, illegal immigration has surged in this mised on whether an individual is “more likely than century. This resulted from a confluence of conditions. not” being subject to persecution. As Steven Rattner 14

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and Maureen White recently opined in the New York about 35,000 migrants were paroled into the country. Times, “we should raise the legal standard for consid- In 2023, the number exceeded 300,000. Tough choices eration for asylum from a ‘significant possibility’ that need to be made because it is unsustainable for America asylum would be granted to something closer to the to take every refugee from every failed nation. standard used for final decisions in immigration court.” Democratic mayors and Republicans agree that In addition, asylum President Biden has demseekers should be mandated onstrated an inability to to apply either in Mexico control illegal immigration In 2019 about 35,000 migrants or their home country, and at our southern border. adequate resources must be This failure has caused were paroled into the country. afforded to U.S. immigraunprecedented security, In 2023, the number exceeded tion courts and officials. economic, and social chalHistorically migrants with300,000. Tough choices need to be lenges. out papers can be admitRepublicans have an opmade because it is unsustainable ted into the United States portunity to show how their for America to take every refugee policies can fix the problem through a parole process on a case-by-case -basis for which could pay huge divifrom every failed nation. humanitarian reasons. This dends for the country and provision was intended to party in 2024. RF permit the Attorney General to act only in emergent, individual, and isolated Gary Sasse served as Director of the Rhode Island Desituations. partments of Administration and Revenue, and ExecuPresident Biden, however, liberalized the use of tive Director of the Rhode Island Public Expenditure parole by applying it to selected countries. In 2019 Council (RIPEC).

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RIPON FORUM February 2024

Cover Story

MAN ON THE MOVE

A conversation with Michael McCaul about America’s place in the world and the threats facing our nation around the globe.

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If it’s hard keeping up with Texas Congressman Michael McCaul these days, it’s probably because he’s rarely in one place for too long. McCaul serves as Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. In this role, he is the point person on Capitol Hill for making sure members of the U.S. House of Representatives understand and are ready to confront the challenges facing America around the world. With no shortage of challenges in this regard, McCaul has been on the move quite a bit lately, to say the least. Last February, for example, he led a bipartisan delegation to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky and get a sense of the war against Russia and how U.S. assistance was being spent. Two months later, in April, he led another delegation to Taiwan to meet with government and business leaders in that country and discuss ways the U.S. can strengthen our economic and defense relationship in the face of the growing Chinese threat. In September, he traveled to Northern Europe to discuss Sweden’s accession into NATO and get a better sense of the threat posed by Putin and where our allies in the region stood. Two months later, in November, he was off to Israel, where the bipartisan delegation he led learned more about the threat posed by Hamas and Iran-backed proxies, and the need for steadfast support from the United States. Most recently, last month, he led a delegation to the southern border in our country to meet with U.S. and Mexican officials and get a better understanding of a migration crisis that seems to be getting worse with each passing day. The Ripon Forum caught up with McCaul recently to learn more about what he saw in his travels and get his thoughts on America’s place in the world today. It is a world, he tells us, that is “on fire” and more dangerous than at any time since World War II. It is also a world that will no doubt be watching with great interest the elections in the United States later this year. To that end, the Forum asked McCaul for his thoughts on the Republican message heading toward November. Looking beyond then, we also wanted to know what he sees as a future challenge facing America, and what our nation should be doing to prepare for that challenge today.

RF: First things first – with this being an aggression. His average job approval rating during his third year election year, what is the Republican case against in office was the lowest of any president since Jimmy the Biden Administration when it comes to foreign Carter. So simply put, President Biden is the architect of policy? a failed foreign policy at every turn. McCaul: Upon taking office, President Biden rescinded the policies, like Remain in Mexico, that kept RF: And what about the our borders secure, and he and case for Republicans? When his administration refused to Americans cast their ballots enforce our nation’s laws. The The world is on fire right this fall, what should they result: unprecedented illegal now, and it’s time to know about the GOP and border crossings and the how the party will confront recommit to a strong foreign worst human trafficking crisis the threats facing our nation our lifetime. policy that stands by our around the globe? Biden then shut down the principles, ensures the safety McCaul: Rather than Keystone Pipeline and waived leading from behind and of our citizens, and protects sanctions on Nord Stream destroying our credibility on the 2, destroying thousands of our jobs. world stage, Republicans will American jobs and begging continue to lead from a position other countries for oil. of strength. We’ve seen the Biden administration fail The country and entire world watched this president to adequately address the threats and challenges facing surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan, laying the perfect the U.S., and deterrence is key here, not for war, but for groundwork for Putin to invade Ukraine. peace. We’re witnessing an increasingly aggressive Chinese The world is on fire right now, and it’s time to Communist Party eye our key Indo-Pacific partner recommit to a strong foreign policy that stands by our Taiwan, and Iran-backed Hamas terrorists launched an principles, ensures the safety of our citizens, and protects unprovoked war against our longtime ally Israel. Biden our jobs. has repeatedly projected weakness, and weakness invites RIPON FORUM February 2024

RF: Let’s look at some of these threats. You are enforcing sanctions either. The first move they made was to lift terrorist leading an effort on Capitol Hill to crack down on the flow of U.S. money into the Chinese military. designations on the Houthis and suspend critical Could you talk about this effort for moment, and support to our regional partners as they came under some of the other steps America needs to take to Houthi attack. Three years later, it’s clear the policy meet the challenges we face from China in the of Iran and proxy appeasement has failed. In the face of continued Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and years ahead? McCaul: It is no secret that the Chinese Communist Gulf of Aden, they’ve had to re-designate the Houthis Party has dramatically ramped up aggression against the as Specially Designated Global Terrorist, though fallen U.S. and our allies. In December of 2023, I released short of fully holding the Houthis to account with a a report on the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Foreign Terrorist Organization designation. Unfortunately, the administration has Industry and Security (BIS) and determined that BIS has enabled a virtually unrestricted flow of American continually pursued these half measures over a misguided fear of technology to CCPescalation, but Iran and controlled companies, its proxies are escalating enabling China’s rapid anyway. The Houthis are rise as a technological, still attacking commercial economic, and military ships and Iran’s superpower. Russia has proxies in Iraq and Syria demonstrated that export killed three American controls and sanctions servicemembers. Iran work before – not after – is not deterred, and we conflict. need decisive action We have a short against IRGC (Islamic window in which export Revolutionary Guard controls and investment Corps) interests – not pinrestrictions can deny, prick attacks. degrade, or at least delay McCaul meets with Ukrainian President Zelensky CCP aggression. In order during his visit to Kyiv in February 2023. RF: You have been to maintain competitive a staunch defender edge against the malign of Ukraine in its war influence of the CCP, the against Russia. Last Commerce Department Following the disastrous fall, your Committee must institute necessary withdrawal from Afghanistan, published — along reforms to keep U.S. with the Committees on technology and taxpayer a U.S. decision to abandon Intelligence and Armed dollars out of adversarial Ukraine will make America less Services — a “Proposed hands. safe, convey weakness to our Plan for Victory in Ukraine.” Could you RF: What about enemies, and make U.S. partners tell us more about this the Middle East? Our doubt our commitment. plan, and why it is in troops and ships are the best interests of the being attacked by American people to do terrorists, Israel and Hamas are engaged in open war, and the whole all we can to help the Ukrainian people defeat region appears to be on the verge of a broader and Putin and roll back Russia? McCaul: I share my colleagues’ concern that much more dangerous conflict. What should the United States do to defend our interests, support we need to see a clear strategy for victory from the our allies, and keep the situation from spiraling administration. We are two years into this war, and we have not seen such a strategy, and that is unacceptable. further out of control? McCaul: The administration needs to restore The American people deserve a clear vision on how military deterrence immediately and put overwhelming their taxpayer dollars will enable Ukraine’s victory and economic pressure on Iran to restrict their ability to Russia’s defeat in this war. We also need to continue finance terrorist proxies attacking our forces. They to ensure that there is sufficient oversight over the claim that they haven’t lifted sanctions, but they aren’t assistance that we are providing Ukraine. 18

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That being said, supporting Ukraine is squarely in the U.S. interest. The majority of Republicans still support Ukraine. The implications of a Putin victory would reach far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Following the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, a U.S. decision to abandon Ukraine will make America less safe, convey weakness to our enemies, and make U.S. partners doubt our commitment. Moreover, supplemental funding is critical to reviving the U.S. defense industrial base so we are better prepared to deter our greatest adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran. RF: Not all of our threats are overseas. You led a bipartisan CODEL this past month to assess the situation at America’s southern border, where a record number of migrants have been crossing over the past three years. What did you see there, and what steps do you believe need to be taken in the coming months to strengthen border security and bring this crisis to an end? McCaul: In my 25 years of dealing with the border – as a federal prosecutor and the former chairman of Homeland Security – I’ve never seen the border this broken. President Biden and Secretary Mayorkas have all

the tools they need, like Remain in Mexico, a 30-yearold statute utilized by the Trump administration, to end the devastation at our border. We need fundamental policy changes before our border patrol – and America – loses hope. RF: China ... The Middle East … Ukraine … The southern border. America is facing more global challenges than perhaps at any time in our history. And yet as we saw when 19 terrorists hijacked four aircraft to attack us in 2001, and as we experienced when Covid shut down the world in 2020, the most serious threats we encounter are often ones we do not expect. What threats could we face in the future that we should be doing more to prepare for today? McCaul: We are witnessing a struggle for the global balance of power in the world – that would be Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The Biden administration cannot bifurcate these world powers, and they’re all against freedom and democracy. The world has not been this dangerous since World War II, and the administration can no longer underestimate our adversaries’ intentions to undercut U.S. interests at every turn. We need to treat them as the adversaries that they are. RF

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Russia’s Crimean Gambit: Ten Years after the Invasion by WILLIAM POMERANZ The convergence of the ten-year landmark of Russia’s an- insula. Other detractors criticized the 1954 transfer of Crimea nexation of Crimea, coupled with the two-year anniversary of to Ukraine under Nikita Khrushchev, which occurred for adRussia’s invasion of Ukraine, has focused renewed attention ministrative reasons but did not displace anyone since Crimea on the origins of the Russian-Ukraine war. Hindsight is always remained a part of the Soviet Union and not another country. 20/20, but the warning signs were visible from the beginning Finally, prominent Russian leaders, such as the mayor of Mosof Ukraine’s independence that Russia was not reconciled to cow, Yuri Luzhkov, sought political advantage by insisting that this historical realignment. Crimea should be returned to the Russian Federation. Ukrainian statehood has many authors, but I will start Fast forward a couple of decades and the 2015 Maidan with the 1990 national referendum which voted overwhelm- revolution. Ukraine was at war with Russia and on the verge ing for independence. Crimea of defeat. Ukraine survived, and approved the referendum, but by a cease fire was ultimately estaba smaller margin. Nevertheless, lished, but only after signing the this plebiscite in his back pocket, odious Minsk agreements. These Ukrainian President Leonid Kravprotocols created a working group chuk was able to resist the entreatof four countries (France, Geries of President Boris Yeltsin at many, Russia, Ukraine). Notably the Belovezha Forest meeting to absent at the signing was the Unitkeep the Soviet Union together. ed States. And so the West just Instead, the Commonwealth of Inwatched as the “little green men” dependent States was formed with with no insignias retook Crimea minimal Ukrainian participation without a fight. and enthusiasm. So the opportunity to deIn retrospect, two events raised fend Ukraine, or at least provide questions about the long-term prossome substance to the Budapest pects of Ukraine’s independence. Memorandum, was lost. Instead, First, after the break-up of the Soalthough the West introduced William Pomeranz Caption viet Union, Ukraine engaged in some sanctions, it generally was multiple negotiations with Russia business as usual between Russia about the control of the Black Sea and Europe with the consequence Hindsight is always 20/20, fleet and the Russian naval bases that Europe became increasingly but the warning signs were now situated in a foreign country. reliant on Russian energy. Thus, After much back and forth, Rusvisible from the beginning of there were no economic consesia bought the fleet in 1995 and quences for Russia’s flagrant vioUkraine’s independence that received a long-term lease that left lation of international law. Russia was not reconciled to behind a garrison of Russian troops Alas, the signs were there on Ukrainian territory. Second, that Putin would not stop with this historical realignment. Ukrainian independence was only Crimea. Any attempt to revive backed-up by the 1995 Budapest the Minsk accords after 2015 was Memorandum signed by Russia, the United Kingdom, and the a non-starter, since Russia demanded veto rights over any naUnited States. This document enabled the removal of nuclear tional legislation for Donetsk and Lugansk, an impossible posiweapons from Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine. It also pro- tion for a sovereign state. The 2022 constitutional amendments vided “security assurances” (but not guarantees) for any vio- also included new extraterritorial provisions, which stated that lation of the territorial integrity of those three new nations. In once a region joined the Russian Federation, it could not give other words, it was largely a toothless declaration. up any land that was part of its territory. Therefore, there was no So Ukraine always remained vulnerable to Russian re- legal room for any negotiations. Furthermore, the amendments vanchism, which began from the start of the end of the Soviet asserted that the Russian Federation was allowed to defend ethUnion. Critics cited Catherine the Great’s conquest of the pen- nic Russians living abroad. 20

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Putin had ample evidence that the United States and Eu- nect the Russin mainland to Crimea. Ukraine has attacked the rope would not come to the defense of Ukraine, nor did he re- bridge several times, and it remains a sitting target that, if further spect Ukraine as a military power. He reportedly thought he attacked, would both physically and symbolically undercut Puwould be in Kyiv in two weeks, but the war is now approach- tin’s great military victory. Meanwhile, Russia continues to try ing its two-year anniversary with no end in sight. Instead, Pu- to re-write history to justify its annexation of Crimea. tin created false narratives of Nazis in Ukraine and attacks in Indeed, Russia continues to litigate Khrushchev’s Ukraine on ethnic Russians. transfer of Crimea to Ukraine Critics of the U.S. and Eurosome 70 years after the fact1 pean Union also claim that No internal legislation, howGoing forward, we must underRussia was provoked by the ever, can whitewash or justify stand that we are in a whole new talk of potential NATO or EU the blatant violation of interworld after Russia’s annexation enlargement, although neither national law that occurred in event was in any way immiCrimea ten years ago. RF of Ukrainian territory. nent and still subject to long negotiations. Opportunities William Pomeranz is the Diwere clearly lost to confront Russia for its aggression, although rector of the Kennan Institute, a part of the Woodrow Wilson questions remain as to whether the interests of the U.S and Eu- International Center for Scholars located in Washington, rope were closely aligned. Going forward, however, we must D.C. He is also the author of Law and the Russian State: understand that we are in a whole new world after Russia’s an- Russia’s Legal Evolution from Peter the Great to Vladimir nexation of Ukrainian territory. We long thought imperialism Putin (Bloomsbury, 2018). was over after World War I and World War II, but it will take more than Cold War deterrence to confront Russia’s growing 1) “Konstitutionnyi sud poprosiat otmemenit’ peredach Kryma imperial appetites. And there are more trip wires that could es- Ukrainskoi SSR, at: May 16,2023, Kommersant, availble at : calate the crisis at any time. Конституционный суд попросят отменить указ о передаче Putin built a 12-mile bridge across the Kerch strait to con- Крыма Украинской ССР - Ведомости (vedomosti.ru)

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NATO At 75: Can Europe Defend Itself Without U.S. Support? by HANS BINNENDIJK NATO will celebrate its 75th anniversary at the Washington Summit this summer. Most people retire before turning 75, but NATO can’t. It is still indispensable. The threats facing Europe are more dangerous now than at any time since the end of the Cold War. With American leadership, the transatlantic allies have responded to those varied threats — especially Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine — with unity and a recommitment to defense. But Europe is not yet capable of meeting these threats alone. Ironically, at a time of maximum need, NATO is more vulnerable than ever to renewed isolationism in the United States. After nearly two decades of focus on counter-terrorism and hybrid challenges, the primary threats to NATO today come from major powers and regional war in the Middle East.

management procedures have been set aside, removing guardrails that could constrain future escalation. China Following its 2023 summit in Vilnius, NATO issued a communiqué which stated that Beijing’s “stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.” While China is viewed as a competitor and strategic adversary rather than a near term threat, NATO is seeking ways to support America’s position in the Far East. The reason is simple — Europeans are beginning to understand that should the United States be drawn into war with China over Taiwan or freedom of the seas, Europe would be instantly more vulnerable.

Hans Binnendijk

The Middle East Russia The war in Gaza has also Russia’s invasion of increased threats to European With American leadership, Ukraine two years ago has been security and commerce. Iran is the transatlantic allies have contained but not reversed. NAengaging in surrogate warfare TO’s effort to halt Russian agresponded to varied threats — designed to halt closer Isgression without starting World raeli-Saudi ties — that has de– especially Russia’s brutal War lll has been successful so stabilized the region. Iran eninvasion of Ukraine – with far. Defensive trench lines on abled Hamas’ brutal October 7 both sides resembling World attack, supported cross border unity and a recommitment War l leave some 18 percent of shelling into Israel by Hezbolto defense. Ukrainian territory occupied. lah, encouraged Houthi attacks Neither side appears ready for on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden a cease fire despite the current commercial shipping, and restalemate, so reconstitution of forces will be critical to lied on Iraqi Shiite militias to kill and wound Americans the outcome. The Russian economy is on a total war foot- stationed in the region. ing and could have the advantage in a war of attrition. In this environment, should Iran decide to aggresThe current situation in Ukraine leaves open the sively pursue a nuclear weapon, war with Iran involving prospect of wider conflict that could still engulf all of Europe can not be ruled out. Europe. Should the West fail to fully resupply Ukraine, Russian aggression will not stop at the current line of Moving Forward contact. Other nations will become more vulnerable. And Faced with this new array of threats, NATO has reyet a longer war sustains the risk that escalation could sponded well. Overall European assistance to Ukraine drag NATO in directly through accident or miscalcula- has been roughly equal to that of the United States, all tion. Several key arms control agreements and incident coordinated by a group of some 50 donors led by the U.S. RIPON FORUM February 2024

The European Union just pledged $54 billion in addition- For example, former Senators Mike Mansfield (R-MO) al assistance for Ukraine, while the U.S. Congress has and Sam Nunn (D-GA) both offered amendments in the yet to make a similar commitment for 2024. Europe has past to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Europe. These led the United States in providing Ukraine with several amendments were not adopted. But never have there been advanced weapons systems such as tanks, air launched serious American threats to withdraw from the Alliance. cruise missiles and advanced fighter aircraft. With regard Former President Donald Trump has made it clear to China, Europe has reversed course, reduced strate- on many occasions that should he be re-elected, he will gic dependencies, imposed sanctions, and participated not again be deterred from reducing America’s commitin Asian naval exercises with the United States. In the ment to European security. And he recently went further, Middle East, individual NATO nations are supporting declaring during a February 11 campaign speech in South U.S. and British air strikes against the Houthis; and the Carolina that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever Netherlands, Denmark and France are sending warships the hell they want.” to protect commercial traffic. His “positive relationship” with Putin and his perNATO itself has strengthened its deterrent posture sonal animosity towards Ukrainian President Zelensky in multiple ways, including membership for Finland and has already complicated passage of the Administration’s Sweden; nine years of continuous growth in European $61 billion aid package to Ukraine, despite broad Condefense spending (an increase of 8.3 percent in 2023); gressional support for the measure. And despite a recent enhanced forward deployment of primarily European bipartisan provision passed in the defense authorization NATO troops to defend bill prohibiting a future NATO front line states; President from withdrawand implementation of Despite real progress, Europe is not ing from NATO without new regional defense Congressional approval, yet ready to go it alone against a plans plus readiness and Trump could simply use nuclear armed and conventionally mobility initiatives. If Presidential powers to Vladimir Putin intended withdraw U.S. troops reconstituted Russia. to weaken NATO, that has from Europe and again backfired so far. question America’s comDespite progress, more is still needed from Europe. mitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pledge. The U.S. contributes some two-thirds of overall NATO The collapse of NATO’s recently enhanced deternational defense spending, in part because the U.S. has rent posture under a future Trump Administration could global defense responsibilities well beyond NATO. Over- lead to unanticipated military conflict. A vague deterrent all European Union force structure fell from 3.4 million has often led to a failed deterrent. Transatlantic defense during the Cold War to less than 2 million in 2019. Euro- leadership arrangements developed by NATO over the pean readiness, mobility, and defense industry problems decades would crumble. Europe’s conventional defenses, persist. As of 2023, several key nations have not yet met though improved, would be inadequate for the task of dethe 2 percent of GDP defense spending goal for 2024 terring a reconstituted Russia. And Russia’s nuclear dom(see related chart on opposite page). Germany’s Defense inance over Europe would leave Europe open to nuclear Minister recently said his armed forces are unfit to meet blackmail. Moscow would be tempted to fulfill Putin’s current challenges. The British Army, already dangerous- grand design of reversing Cold War losses and could easly undersized, may shrink further next year. ily miscalculate. And Europe is heavily dependent on American enCompared to the risk of widespread war in Europe, ablers in such areas as operational intelligence and recon- America’s investment in European security is modest and naissance, air-to-air refueling, missile defense, airborne should be sustained. But Europe needs to anticipate dielectromagnetic warfare, and airlift. Europe’s nuclear minished American participation in NATO should Trump deterrent absent America’s nuclear umbrella relies solely be re-elected or should war break out in Asia involving of an inadequate number of British and French national the United States. Simply meeting the 2 percent of GDP strategic systems. In sum, despite real progress, Europe defense spending target would be wholly inadequate for is not yet ready to go it alone against a nuclear armed and this task. RF conventionally reconstituted Russia. In this environment of greater existential risk and Hans Binnendijk is a Distinguished Fellow at the Atlanreal European efforts at defense unity, NATO is ironi- tic Council. He previously served in multiple senior US cally at one of its most vulnerable points in its 75-year government positions, including NSC Senior Director for history. The U.S. election later this year may determine Defense Policy, Legislative Director of the Senate ForNATO’s future viability. There have been previous U.S. eign Relations Committee, and Director of NDU’s InstiCongressional efforts to boost European burden sharing. tute for National Strategic Studies. 24

RIPON FORUM February 2024

NATO CONTRIBUTIONS BY COUNTRY (As percentage of Gross Domestic Product)

Country

Amount in Millions of USD

% of GDP

Poland

29,105

3.90%

United States

860,000

3.49%

Greece

7,125

3.01%

Estonia

1,170

2.73%

Lithuania

1,990

2.54%

Finland

7,325

2.45%

Romania

8,481

2.44%

Hungary

5,036

2.43%

Latvia

1,028

2.27%

United Kingdom

65,763

2.07%

Slovakia

2,620

2.03%

France

56,649

1.90%

Montenegro

131

1.87%

North Macedonia

294

1.87%

Bulgaria

1,855

1.84%

Croa.a

1,394

1.79%

Albania

371

1.76%

Netherlands

16,741

1.70%

Norway

8,814

1.67%

Denmark

6,775

1.65%

Germany

68,080

1.57%

Czech Republic

5,033

1.50%

Portugal

4,167

1.48%

Italy

31,585

1.46%

Canada

28,950

1.38%

Slovenia

928

1.35%

Turkey

15,842

1.31%

Spain

19,179

1.26%

Belgium

7,076

1.13%

Luxembourg

609

0.72%

RIPON FORUM February 2024

The Prospects for Peace in Ukraine by MARY GLANTZ As we approach the two-year mark of Russia’s illegal seems impossible.” That is not what exists in Ukraine. large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia controls almost 18 If Ukraine receives the promised U.S. and other NATO percent of Ukrainian territory, which is the equivalent of supplies of weapons and ammunition, Ukrainian armed about 25,000 square miles. They have illegally annexed forces can rebuild and go back on the offensive. Russian all or part of five Ukrainian regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, President Vladimir Putin also believes he can still win. The Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. key, to him, is simply waiting out the By late summer 2023, Ukraine’s United States and other supporters of much-anticipated counteroffensive had Ukraine, who, he believes, will grow broken against strong Russian defenses tired and frustrated and give up. in the east and south with only minimal The absence of a stalemate (or a gains of about 200 square miles, clear victory by either side) means the primarily in the Zaporizhzhia region prospects of a negotiated peace are in Ukraine’s south. By December, slim. Russia is loath to quit when it they were switching to the defensive. believes victory is just a matter of time. Meanwhile, Russian forces made Ukraine cannot concede because doing equally minimal territorial gains in the so would mean the end of their state and east, near the city of Avdiivka in the the spread of horrors like those seen Donetsk region. in Bucha and the currently occupied As ground forces continue territories. slugging it out with little evident Despite the slim chances for an Mary Glantz progress, action has switched to other agreement, both Russia and Ukraine areas. In the Black Sea, Ukraine is have talked about a negotiated peace. beating the Russian navy, succeeding in Believing that victory is possible, By definition, restoring the use of the port of Odesa, Putin goes back and forth in his public and creating a shipping corridor for positions on a negotiated settlement a stalemate is sea traffic. Ukraine is also successfully to the war. But one element remains “a situation in launching drone and artillery attacks consistent – any negotiation acceptable which further against Russian territory, including to the Kremlin would lock in the gains facilities as far from Ukraine as the Russia has made. In essence, Russia action or progress Baltic Sea. Russia, as they did last demands a negotiated Ukrainian by opposing or winter, is focusing its effort on air surrender, not a negotiated peace treaty. attacks against Ukrainian cities and This was most evident recently competing parties critical civilian infrastructure. when Bloomberg published an article seems impossible.” Ukrainian missile defenses, alleging the Kremlin had sent out peace That is not what like the U.S.-supplied Patriots, have feelers to U.S. officials suggesting succeeded thus far in limiting the Moscow might accept Ukrainian exists in Ukraine. damage of mass Russian attacks, but if membership in NATO in exchange for the Patriot supply were to run out, the keeping the territory it had illegally consequences for Ukrainian civilians would be catastrophic. annexed. (Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitriy The fighting continues, but there has been very little Peskov subsequently denied this.) Putin’s most recent exchange of territory in the past year. This has led some public statement on peace, made at his annual end-ofto argue the war is at a stalemate. But that perception is year press conference on December 13, was: “There will inaccurate. be peace when we achieve our goals. Let’s return to these By definition, a stalemate is “a situation in which goals. They have not changed. I’ll remind you of what further action or progress by opposing or competing parties we talked about then – the denazification of Ukraine, its 26

RIPON FORUM February 2024

demilitarization, its neutral status.” just about Ukraine. It is about Putin’s vision of a new world In contrast, President Zelenskyy and his team are order – a world order of chaos and conflict, which would advancing their vision of a just and sustainable peace threaten U.S. economic interests and risk sucking the United agreement. Zelenskyy’s peace formula, presented at the States into other conflicts throughout the globe. November 2022 G-20 Summit, lays out 10 points that must The international community – and especially the United be addressed to ensure States – is vital for the peace in Ukraine, ranging achievement of a just from nuclear security and sustainable peace in If Ukraine receives the promised to a final peace treaty. Ukraine. Ukraine needs U.S. and other NATO supplies of Since then, Ukraine has U.S. diplomatic support been working to build to isolate Putin and weapons and ammunition, Ukrainian global consensus behind convince him his world armed forces can rebuild and go their formula through a order is unattainable. back on the offensive. series of conferences in Ukraine needs U.S. Copenhagen, Jeddah, military support to Malta, and Davos. defend its people and Ukraine hopes the meetings will culminate in a summit of show Russia that military victory is too costly. And Ukraine world leaders who commit to these principles. This approach needs U.S. economic and social support to help maintain is vital for Ukraine, since Zelenskyy believes, no doubt social cohesion and resilience among the Ukrainian people. correctly, that direct negotiation with Putin is impossible. Doing so is certainly a significant expense for the American International support and mediation will be vital for peace. taxpayer. Not doing so could lead to even greater costs in the Putin’s continued war of aggression is predicated upon future. RF the belief that the United States’ resolve is weakening. While it is impossible to overestimate the extent to which Putin is Mary Glantz, PhD, serves as Acting Director of the Center obsessed with Russian control over Ukraine, this war is not for Russia and Europe at the United States Institute of Peace.

RIPON FORUM February 2024

Debate

The Affordable Care Act: Two Views…

Obamacare Has Been a Success, and It’s Just the Start by NICOLE RAPFOGEL In the nearly 14 years since the Affordable Care Act 20 million people to lose their coverage, increasing the was passed, we’ve seen dozens of legislative attempts uninsured rate by a whopping 65 percent. Beyond Medicaid and marketplace enrollees, all to repeal it—all to no avail. Why? Despite divisive partisan messaging about “Obamacare,” the ACA clearly Americans with health insurance stand to benefit from the addressed flaws in the health insurance system and enacted ACA’s many consumer protections. For example, the ACA prohibits annual and lifetime coverage numerous consumer protections. If limits. Prior to the ACA, nearly 60 these provisions were to be repealed, percent of people enrolled in employermillions of Americans could have lower sponsored insurance and 90 percent of quality, lower value health insurance— people enrolled in individual coverage or lose coverage altogether—virtually were in plans with lifetime limits. About overnight. 20,000 people reached their lifetime The ACA helped millions of limits each year, and 18 million people people gain access to health insurance; were in plans with annual dollar limits. uninsured rates dropped by more than There are countless cases of people who, half from 17.8 percent in 2010 to an allwithout ACA protections, would have time low of 7.2 percent in the second reached their lifetime coverage limit quarter of 2023. One key driver of due to only one major health crisis or this change was the ACA’s Medicaid condition. One mother shared the story expansion provision, which for the first of her newborn needing intensive care; time gave states the option to extend Nicole Rapfogel without the ACA, he would have reached Medicaid to adults with incomes up to his plan’s lifetime coverage limit at just 138 percent of the federal poverty level The ACA helped 3 months old. —with the federal government covering The ACA also guarantees coverage 90 percent of the cost. The ACA also millions of people for essential health benefits, including provided generous premium tax credits gain access to health maternity care, mental health services, that made individual marketplace coverage accessible for millions; insurance; uninsured and preventive care, and it sets limits on how much people can be charged based additional tax credit expansions have rates dropped by on their health status, gender, and age. In bolstered insurance rates even higher more than half from 2018, about half of nonelderly adults had since the ACA’s passage. a preexisting condition that could have Both of these programs enabled by 17.8 percent in 2010 been subject to underwriting, and more the ACA—Medicaid expansion and tax to an all-time low than 1 in 4 nonelderly adults could have credits—support many working adults been declined coverage altogether for with few alternatives for coverage. of 7.2 percent in the their preexisting conditions. And, nearly For example, 42 percent of people on second quarter 4 years into the COVID-19 pandemic, Medicaid report working, while many of 2023. repealing the ACA would mean that of the remaining enrollees report not 1 in 13 consumers with long COVID working due to a disability or parenting responsibilities. And 1 in 4 marketplace enrollees are could be subject to discriminatory pricing and coverage small business owners or self-employed. For these people, restrictions that would make these estimates even higher. In addition, the ACA requires plans to spend 80 to repealing the ACA would have dire consequences. In 2019, the Urban Institute estimated that ACA repeal would cause (cont’d on page 30) 28

RIPON FORUM February 2024

The Affordable Care Act: Two Views…

Obamacare has Three Key Failings and Needs To be Reformed by BRIAN BLASE President Biden’s campaign plans to use Obamacare to restrict these plans, but a second Trump administration as an issue against President Trump. With polls favoring could reverse any misguided actions that reduce families’ Republicans on major issues, like the economy and ability to buy these plans. A second Trump term could also immigration, the Biden campaign has seized on President work with states on expanding options through Farm Bureau Trump’s recent comments that Obamacare is failing and health plans, which are popular coverage options available in many mid-Western states, and ensuring should be replaced. The media has the reliability of health sharing plans, fallen in line, suggesting Trump aims which avoid many of the administrative to repeal Obamacare. President Trump costs of health insurance. is right with his critique and the best, Working with Congress, a second most realistic strategy would be to fix Trump administration could build key problems with Obamacare while on two options that President Trump addressing other underlying problems advanced in his first term to help with the health system that frustrate businesses offer coverage. President American families. Trump’s administration opened a path To fix Obamacare, it’s important for businesses to offer Association to first take stock of its three key Health Plans. AHPs allow smaller failings. First, Obamacare worsened businesses to form larger purchasing the quality of individual market groups to take advantage of economies health insurance and caused millions of scale and more favorable regulations of people to replace better coverage to secure better, more affordable plans. Brian Blase with worse coverage. Obamacare Many AHPs formed under the rule, substantially raised premiums and delivering quality coverage at significant deductibles and most plans exclude Obamacare worsened cost savings. Unfortunately, the rule was top hospitals and doctors. Second, the quality of invalidated by an unfriendly judge and the rising costs from Obamacare led AHPs face a hostile Biden administration more small businesses to drop health individual market that appears unsympathetic to the cost insurance. Third, the law’s coverage health insurance, pressures facing small businesses. expansion now costs taxpayers more President Trump’s administration than $200 billion a year—almost substantially raised also created a new way for employers all of which are subsidies to health premiums and to offer coverage — individual coverage insurers—without improving health deductibles, and health reimbursement arrangements outcomes. (ICHRAs). Using an ICHRA, an Both a new Congress and the law’s coverage employer provides a tax-free amount administration should take action to expansion now costs that employees use to buy an individual fix these problems. These fixes would market plan. ICHRAs are essentially be sound policy and broadly popular taxpayers more than the 401k of health insurance. A second with Americans. $200 billion a year. Trump term, potentially working with President Trump’s administration Congress, can improve on the ICHRA expanded access to short-term, limited-duration health insurance — much more flexible rule by permitting employees to purchase a broader range of and affordable coverage which typically covers far more plans with their contribution. hospitals and doctors. The Biden administration is proposing (cont’d on next page) RIPON FORUM February 2024

(Blase, cont’d) allow insurers to increase premiums with taxpayers picking The most challenging Obamacare problem to fix is up the entire increase. Third, it would direct more of the reorienting the enormously inefficient subsidies to health subsidies to people with greater health care needs and less to insurers—through a large Medicaid expansion (almost healthy people. Fourth, it would permit enrollees to apply the all expansion enrollees are in a managed care plan) and subsidy to a broader set of uses and health plans. premium subsidies for individual market plans—to a more Fixing Obamacare in these ways would expand efficient use. Medicaid families’ options, help small expansion has harmed the businesses offer coverage, most vulnerable (low-income and ensure a more efficient Both a new Congress and children, pregnant women, of taxpayer dollars. A administration should take action use and people with disabilities) second Trump administration to fix these problems. These by incentivizing states to and a new Congress could provide more services to also build on President fixes would be sound policy and the expansion population of Trump’s price transparency broadly popular with Americans. able-bodied, working-age rules so American consumers adults. Obamacare created and employers know prices a much higher federal in advance of receiving care; payment rate for the expansion population than for the more take on counterproductive government policies that reduce vulnerable populations. Congressional action is needed to market competition, advantage big market incumbents, and end this discrimination and equalize the payment rates across increase consolidation; and ensure a permissive regulatory Medicaid enrollees within states. climate so that artificial intelligence can improve health care The next Congress must also fix the premium subsidies, delivery and lower systemwide costs. These solutions would which the previous Congress unwisely expanded. Ideally, make health care more affordable and give people – not a fix would have several key components. First, it would government bureaucrats – control over their care. RF permit enrollees an option to directly control a portion of the subsidy as a health savings account deposit to use on Brian Blase, who served as a special assistant to President health care that best meets their needs. Second, it would not Trump at the White House’s National Economic Council for be inflationary, meaning that the subsidy structure would not economic policy, is the president of Paragon.

(Rapfogel, cont’d) Given this context, it’s easy to see that attempts 85 percent of premium dollars on health care, protecting to repeal the ACA would not only prevent millions of consumers from getting a bad deal. By allowing young Americans from accessing needed medical care—they adults under age 26 to stay on their parents’ health insurance would also be a political disaster. plan, the ACA contributed to a 56 percent reduction in the To be clear, the ACA was just the start. Policymakers uninsured rate among adults aged 19 to 25 from 2010 to still have much more work to do to make health 2022. care affordable and It’s no surprise that accessible. We as a nation attempts to repeal the ACA need critical reforms that Beyond Medicaid and have failed; its key provisions address unreasonably marketplace enrollees, all are popular. The majority high drug prices, of Americans consider it hospital and insurance Americans with health insurance “very important” to keep the consolidation, and high stand to benefit from the ACA’s following provisions in place: health care costs. But many consumer protections. -Banning denying the path forward isn’t coverage to and charging more to take away consumer for people with preexisting protections and coverage conditions and pregnant women; expansions and push millions off their insurance. We -Prohibiting annual and lifetime limits; need progress toward more access and affordability— -Requiring plans to offer no-cost preventive care; -Allowing young adults to stay on their parents’ not regression. RF insurance plans; and -Subsidizing coverage for people with low and moderate incomes.

Nicole Rapfogel is a health policy analyst at the Center for American Progress.

RIPON FORUM February 2024

News & Events

Tillis Shares His Thoughts on Senate Agenda in the Months Ahead WASHINGTON, DC – With Congress hated the bill. The fact of the matter is we Following his opening remarks, stuck in legislative limbo and a possible were thinking strategically. And unless Tillis took a number of questions, government shutdown less than a month we had a majority to put pressure on including one about America’s domestic away, U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) our colleagues in the House to say, ‘The manufacturing sector and the strength of appeared before a breakfast meeting majority of U.S. Senators support this the global supply chain, and whether the of The Ripon Society on February 8 to bill,’ it just didn’t make sense. U.S. should de-link from China as a way discuss not only the recent effort to pass “That’s why we are where we are. to strengthen this sector and shore up this a border security agreement, but some But people should disabuse themselves chain in the months and years ahead. other critical issues he would like to of the notion that only four people “We stress tested [the supply chain] see addressed in the weeks and months supported that border policy. We were with Covid, and it failed the stress ahead. working for an outcome. We were test,” Tillis observed. “Now, we can no “If you all see James longer trust China. Now, we Lankford, thank him,” know that they’ll use their Tillis said, referring to the manufacturing links in the Oklahoma Senator who has supply chain as a strategic been the lead Republican weapon. Don’t forget that negotiator on the border they withheld PPEs, and security package and has they started playing games. taken the heat from those So, we know that they’re a in his party who argue the threat. Should we de-link package is insufficient and entirely? Am I one that doesn’t get the job done. wants zero investment in “I believe it’s sound policy. China? No. That is dumbBut at the end of the day, minded and unsustainable.” we have to have a majority “One of my favorite of our conference for it to be pictures from China is of a worthwhile. little girl wearing a Wonder “The first order of business is doing “I’ve said that publicly Woman costume and holding our duty to secure the world.” for a long time. The a Captain America shield from threshold that you need for Thom Tillis a Disney Park in China. Hell, votes in one chamber or I want to export all that kind Remarks to The Ripon Society another is like a fingerprint. of culture to those folks. You February 8, 2024 It changes every Congress. think that little girl’s going to Last Congress, I was known aspire to be the leader of the to get 12 to 15 people together and help working to make a difference, not a point. Communist Chinese party? Probably not. with the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Time has passed, and we weren’t able to Giving people in China a taste of what the CHIPS Act, the Bipartisan Safer get it done. And it’s a shame because I democracy and what western democracy Communities Act, the Respect for think that we’ll regret not having some looks like is a righteous investment. Marriage Act, the Electoral Count Act, of those capabilities on the books should “For us to have that access, there’s and a couple of others. We didn’t need Donald Trump get into the White House. going to have to be some give and take 25 then because we had a different mix “But we are where we are. We need with other investments in China. But just to get something to the President’s desk. to move on, get the supplemental done, don’t get on the bandwagon of exiting. “In this cycle, I think it would be get Ukraine done, Taiwan and Israel, You’ve got the hearts and minds of over irresponsible on something like border and ideally try and avoid a government a billion people that you can influence by security to not have gotten more than shutdown in about three weeks. A being there. And you know, 90 percent of half of our conference – a majority of couple other things, too. But right now, success in life is showing up. And I think our conference. And we couldn’t do the first order of business is doing our our investment – our presence in China – it. I reject the narrative that everybody duty to secure the world.” is critically important.” RF RIPON FORUM February 2024

Name: Lori Chavez-DeRemer Occupation: Member of Congress representing Oregon’s 5th Congressional District

First job held & the lesson(s) you learned from it: My first job was packing peaches in Hanford, California. I was a junior in high school. I wanted to be a cheerleader, but my parents told me I’d have to pay for the uniform. So, I got a job. My girlfriend and I took the first job we could find – packing peaches. It was tough work with long hours. I stayed on for the summer and finished the job. After that, I knew that for the rest of my life, I had to follow the simple principle: If I want something, I need to work hard!

You served as Mayor of Happy Valley before being elected to the U.S. House. What are the main differences between the two roles? It’s not so much how the jobs are different but more how they are similar. I often tell people that I approach this job as the “mayor of the 5th District,” meaning I’m using the skills I learned as mayor to represent this district the best way I know how. Of course, the biggest difference is that I now serve 30 times more people in this role – members of the House serve over 750,000 constituents, whereas the population of Happy Valley is around 25,000.

What are the main challenges facing the people you represent back home? Public safety issues continue to be a top concern for many Oregonians, so addressing rising crime and supporting law enforcement have been a focus of mine. People are concerned with the impact that Measure 110, which decriminalized certain hard drugs, has had on our state. Oregon consistently ranks near the top of the pack in substance use disorders, but we rank near last in access to addiction treatment. The homelessness crisis ties in here as well.

How are you working to address these challenges in Washington? I believe it’s important to build relationships with my colleagues to find priorities we have in common so we can work together. I’ve also elevated Oregonians’ concerns to state leaders, including through conversations with our governor on addressing the fallout of Measure 110. To address homelessness, I introduced a bipartisan bill, the Direct Care for the Homeless Act. I also passed a bill through the House that provides direct financial support for homeless veterans.

Finally, you’ve earned a reputation in Congress as a leader who is unafraid to work across the aisle. At a time when compromise is a dirty word to some, why is bipartisanship so important to you? I’m a pragmatic, policy-driven lawmaker. In a divided Congress, taking a bipartisan approach is the only way we can successfully address many of the serious issues facing our districts. Oregonians have made it clear that they want their leaders to deliver results, not engage in partisan gridlock – and this year, I’ll continue to engage with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to get things done for Oregon. 32

RIPON FORUM February 2024

Build the Future Fully Fund Job Corps

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) urges Congress to fully fund Job Corps. Preparing the skilled trades professionals of the future is critical when our nation needs more homes but lacks the workforce needed to meet demand. With more than 120 centers across all 50 states, Job Corps is the nation’s largest career training program. The Home Builders Institute (HBI), NAHB’s workforce development partner, is Job Corps’ largest skilled trades training provider. HBI graduates are transforming their communities and building America’s homes.

It is critical that Congress fully fund Job Corps. HBI.org

NAHB is proud to support RIPON the Ripon FORUMSociety. February 2024

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