Proportionality Bias: Expectation that the adversary will expend efforts proportionate to the ends he seeks. Interference about the intentions of others from costs and consequences of actions they initiate. Wilful Disregard of New Evidence: Rejection of information that conflicts with already-held beliefs. Results from prior commitments, and/or excessive pursuit of consistency. Image and Self-Image: Perception of what has been, is, will be, or should be (image as subset of belief system). Both inward-directed (self-image) and outward-directed (image). Both often influenced by selfabsorption and ethnocentrism. Defensive Avoidance: Refusal to perceive and understand extremely threatening stimuli. Need to avoid painful choices. Leads to wishful thinking. Overconfidence in Subjective Estimates: Optimistic bias in assessment. Can result from premature or rapid closure of consideration, or ignorance. Wishful Thinking (Pollyanna Complex): Hyper-credulity. Excessive optimism born of smugness and overconfidence. Best-Case Analysis: Optimistic assessment based on cognitive predisposition and general beliefs of how others are likely to behave, or in support of personal or organizational interests or policy preferences. Conservatism in Probability Estimation: In a desire to avoid risk, tendency to avoid estimating extremely high or extremely low probabilities. Routine thinking. Inclination to judge new phenomena in light of past experience, to miss essentially novel situational elements, or failure to re-examine established tenets. Tendency to seek confirmation of prior held beliefs. Worst-Case Analysis (Cassandra Complex): Excessive scepticism. Reflects pessimism and extreme caution, based on predilection (cognitive predisposition), adverse past experience, or on support of personal or organizational interest or policy preferences.
146