CMHC
and demographic trends is expected to increase over the forecast horizon, these factors are projected to be partially offset by a shift in demand away from relatively more expensive new single-detached homes towards less expensive options, including multi-units in the new and resale markets. In fact, data for March 2016 show the MLS house price index for single-family homes in the resale market is continuing to diverge from the price index for apartments, continuing the trend of the last five years. This divergence reflects the different paths for affordability between the two types of units. Accordingly, multi-unit starts are expected to continue slowing in 2016, but to stabilize thereafter. In 2017, multi-unit starts are expected to remain essentially unchanged from their 2016 level, ranging between 108,600 units and 121,500 units in 2016 and between 106,300 units and 121,800 units in 2017. In Ontario, housing activity is expected to maintain its momentum in 2016 before easing in 2017. “Despite an improving Ontario economy, housing activity is expected to ease over the forecast period as the cost of owning a home continues to increase,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC Regional Economist. “However, homes in southwestern and southern Ontario markets bordering the GTA tend to be more affordable, thus we expect a growing share of activity in those centres as we do for higher density housing which includes less expensive rental accommodation.” Ontario vacancy rates will continue to edge lower although will remain stable in markets anticipating more condominium and purposebuilt rental accommodation. Factors supporting rental demand include: rising cost gap between owning and renting, an improving job market and rising international migration. Improving job markets, a rising cost gap between owning and renting and rising international migration will support rental demand across the province. “With an improving labour market, growing population and low mortgage rates, the GTA housing market is expected to remain healthy over the forecast horizon,” explained Dana Senagama, CMHC’s Principal of Market Analysis for the GTA. “New home starts and existing home sales will slow as we approach 2017, as affordability concerns hamper home buying activity, especially among first-time buyers.”
The presence of uncertainty creates some risks to the Ontario economic and housing outlook. This can result in a wider range of possible outcomes over the forecast horizon. Stronger growth in the US economy, interest rates remaining low longer and strong demand for single family homes could support much stronger housing activity. Alternatively, weaker job growth, growing
imbalances in the housing market and rising inventories in both the resale and new home market could result in much weaker activity. While rental supply in the Toronto CMA is projected to increase over the forecast period, demand will continue to stay strong and will have little impact on the primary rental vacancy rate. The average purpose built apartment vacancy rate will remain
ARE YOU CONTEMPLATING THE SALE OF YOUR APARTMENT PROPERTY? Consider the following: • Who will represent your best interest? • Who will give your property maximum exposure? • Who will deliver the highest value for your property? With over 25 years experience, tens of thousands of units sold, and hundreds of clients represented, we have consistently delivered superior results. Through our local and national coverage, we create maximum exposure, ensuring maximum value for your property.
$52,300,000 (180 Suites - $290,555 p/s) 2770 Aquitaine Avenue Mississauga, ON
$50,250,000 (264 Suites - $190,349 p/s) 1485 Williamsport Drive & 3480 Havenwood Drive, Mississauga, ON
$46,000,000 (152 Suites - $302,632 p/s) 111 Lawton Boulevard Toronto, ON
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