DEFENSE AND SECURITY STUDIES
Security scenarios in Colombia: A prospective study proposal / V. 7 • N. 2 • Edition Nº 14 • November de 2012
Although inequalities alone do not explain the lastingness of the FARC, they are a factor that enables them to maintain a political discourse. This logic has served to develop the argument of the objective causes of violence, which advocate that the origin of the guerrillas and their lastingness are not related at all with criminality, but rather with Colombia´s social contradictions. And thirdly, in spite that the real socialism disappeared in Central and Eastern Europe, in Latin America the leftists underwent a transformation and the Cuban regime adapted to the new global reality. Although in most of the world, the leftwing movement lost prestige with the collapse of the USSR, this was not the case in Latin America. This circumstance, among others, led the continent to disagree in respect of qualifying the FARC as a terrorist group or not and to contemplate constantly a peace process. This is still the prevailing environment in Latin America. This way, although the FARC are isolated for the time being, a change of government in Mexico or Brazilian participation in negotiations, or the leadership pursued by Venezuela’s ´President, may give back to the FARC a network of international connections that it enjoyed for a long period of time. Especially Mexico, there they had an important representation office for regional and international projection of their interest that operated for decades.
The generational change One must also take into account that there is a generational change within the FARC, which was the result of the death of Pedro Marín (alias “Manuel Marulanda”). This transformation that led to a leadership change in the secretariat forced the FARC to go through an unprecedented exercise: to think about the generational change. The figures of Alberto Briceño (“Mono Jojoy”) and “Manuel Marulanda” were symbols of the FARC´s struggle and it is very likely that their deaths lead to the creation of new myths. Moreover, something simi-
3
lar could occur with Edgar Devia (“Raúl Reyes”), whose image of victim or peace martyr the FARC want to project considering that he was one of the FARC’s negotiators. In that sense, the use of the events and facts is key and the guerrilla is well experienced in rewriting their own history. The commanders who begin to have visibility, Luciano Marín Arango (“Iván Marquez”) and Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri (“Timochenko”) have a vision of the armed struggle just as radical as that of their predecessors. Furthermore, the guerrilla discourse´s orthodoxy remains intact. Unlike other armed groups, the FARC lack a “moderate wing”, as most of their members who have or have had some type of power in the Secretariat hold a fundamentalist or radical ideology. This makes it difficult to think of FARC giving up recruiting completely, given their reduced number of troops. Taking the lessons learned in the recent past, it is likely that they seek refuge in urban regions of other States in the region, rather than in the jungle and rural regions of the bordering areas. Although this may cause problems in terms of command unity, the guerrilla´s authority is proclaimed with such severity that it becomes effective. In spite of some excesses of the middle-tier command, the punishments, which may even include executions, guarantee a loyalty that may facilitate cohesion. One should add to this, “Timochenko’s” and “Iván Marquez’s” struggle conviction, considering that they are the only survivors of the Seventh Conference. Therefore, the respect that they inspire among the troops remains nearly intact.
There is a high number of former fighters without reintegration process and also drug trafficking activities are expanding Following the demobilization process of the self-defense groups, the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process (DDR for its acronym in Spanish) has not managed to reach
World Bank Database http://data.worldbank.org/indicatorSI.DST.10TH.10/countries/CO?display=graph
45