RESOURCES AND ENERGY
WORKFORCE FORECAST 2022– 2027
Volume 3 – July 2022
ABOUT AREEA AREEA is the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association – the national association for resources, energy industry and supply chain employers. Since 1918, AREEA has worked to ensure Australia’s resources and energy industry is an attractive place to invest, employ and contribute to the nation’s economic prosperity. In doing so, AREEA helps the industry to create a brighter future for all Australians. AREEA provides particular expertise, influence,
leadership and support in key workforce areas including people management, training and upskilling, talent attraction and retention, diversity and inclusion, mental health and wellbeing, and workplace relations. Through its support on employment, skills and other people matters, AREEA is a source of considerable assistance for Australia’s resources and energy employers to meet their commercial objectives, overcome operating challenges, and run productive, competitive and socially responsible businesses.
METHODOLOGY Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast (20222027) estimates the workforce and skills demands of prospective mining and oil and gas projects in Australia’s development pipeline.
• Cross-referencing workforce estimates in company issued ASX statements, press releases, media comments, project documents or via direct feedback from company representatives.
Only projects that have been committed by the proponents / investors or have been assessed by the Australian Government Department of Industry and AREEA’s analysts as advanced and ‘likely to proceed’, are included in this forecast series.
• Verification of forecasts by key industry participants in each commodity.
Further, this forecast is for the long-term operational phase of these projects, with workforce demand listed in the year they are scheduled to enter full production. It does not include the short-term construction workforces involved in building the projects in the years prior. A variety of modelling techniques is applied to present as accurate a forecast as possible, including: • Applying average productivity ratios (commodity volume produced per employee) from official State Government production and reported employee figures. • Applying workforce planning formulas and occupation breakdown ratios provided to AREEA by leading employers in each commodity group.
Formulas have been applied consistently within each commodity group to average out variances in project design, quality of resource, terrain and locality, technology and the other myriad factors which can impact total workforce numbers. Across all modelling AREEA has been very conservative. It is assumed new resources and energy projects will sit at the higher end of current industry productivity levels and improving technology may reduce the ratio of onsite operators to centralised white collar roles. For expansion projects, only the actual increase on current workforce numbers is included in the forecasts. Therefore, expansions designed to maintain current production and workforce numbers have new workforce demand listed as nil. AREEA thanks the various member representatives who assisted in this industry forecasting project.
© AREEA 2022 First published in 2022 by Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association ABN 32 004 078 237 Lead analyst / author: Tom Reid, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Email: policy@areea.com.au | Phone: 1800 627 771 | Website: www.areea.com.au This publication is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part may be reproduced by any process, nor may any other exclusive right be exercised, without the permission of the Chief Executive, AREEA, PO Box 3033, West End, QLD 4000. Cover image: Courtesy and copyright of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.
2
FOREWORD Australia’s resources and energy industry is a global powerhouse with seemingly limitless project and workforce potential. Despite all the disruptions arising from the pandemic, geopolitical and international trade issues, direct employment in the sector is at record levels and only set to rise. This AREEA forecasting report shows there are 107 major resources and energy projects advanced in Australia’s investment pipeline, either already committed or considered ‘likely’ by Department of Industry and AREEA analysts, to enter production between the second half of 2022 and end of 2027.
directly employ 295,200 people – it’s highest ever recorded level.
These projects are worth roughly $130 billion in capital value and would create demand for an additional 24,000 production-based roles within this five-year period.
Should all the projects listed in this report come to fruition, as expected, the industry’s workforce would surpass the never-before-seen 300,000 mark sometime in 2023 and grow by another 8% over the next five years.
While industry growth should always be celebrated, there is no doubt many resources and energy sector CEOs would look at such data with some trepidation.
Nationally, the industry has grown by nearly 20,000 workers in the past quarter alone. Over two years (May 2020 – May 2022), the industry has grown by 66,000 workers or by nearly 30%.
On current trend, this may very well prove to be highly conservative.
Shortages in skilled labour are overwhelmingly the biggest issue facing employers in the industry. This is not only threatening the continuity of operations but driving other issues including historic levels of staff turnover and spiralling sign-on and retention bonuses.
AREEA proudly presents the third edition of this Workforce Forecast series. This is just one tool designed to assist employers through present and future skills challenges, by adding to the information at hand to analyse and understand labour market trends.
This of course is not an issue confined to the resources industry – almost every sector of the Australian economy is feeling the pinch of a national labour market with a near-50-year low in unemployment.
At a time when Australia faces significant economic and fiscal challenges including national debt nearing one trillion dollars, this report further reinforces the enormous role continued resources and energy project investment will play in maintaining our country’s world-leading living standards and ongoing prosperity.
But what sets the resources industry aside is the extraordinary level of workforce growth it has experienced over the past two years. According to the ABS, the May Quarter of 2022 sees the industry
THE AREEA TEAM
Resources and energy direct workforce (2017-2027): National 350,000
– –
Historic Forecast
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
3
NATIONAL SUMMARY
$130
107 Projects
billion value*
24,000 Additional workforce demand
5 $6.5bn
16
1,170
$17bn
57
5,560
$88.6bn 11,250
4 $1.7bn 790
19 $15.5bn 4,635
4 $520m 525 2 *Values based on mean estimate for projects, rounded to closest tenth.
4
$130m 70
AGGREGATE FIGURES 107 Projects
COMMENTARY
24,000 Employees
Nationally, the industry has 60 new projects, 41 expansions and 5 reactivations either committed or likely to proceed between 2022-2027. Total estimated value is $130bn.
22 19 7 5 1
21 18 6 2
Coal Critical Minerals Iron Ore Nickel / Cobalt
6
Alumina
Looking forward, the 107 mining, oil and gas projects either committed or considered likely to proceed by 2027 would demand approx 24,000 new production roles and grow the workforce by an estimated further 8%.
Gold
Demand from the 89 mining projects modelled (see ‘mining occupations’ left) will be 20,365 workers. This is significantly frontloaded in the forecast timeline with 69 projects requiring 15,000 workers by the end of 2024.
Gas / LNG / Oil Copper Lead / Silver
Gold contains 21 projects requiring 3580 workers, more than half of which (11 projects, 2000 employees) are expected to come online in the second half of 2022 alone. Coal has 21 projects requiring nearly 7200 workers, spread more evenly over the five-year forecast timeline.
“Other Commodities” (Phosphate, Sulphate, Uranium, Tin).
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 24,000. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
8455
plant operators
872
production technicians / general service operators
2784
heavy diesel fitters
145
control room operators trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
980
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
4073
supervisors, management, administration
800
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
4073
mine engineering, technical, geology
254
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
1564
As of May 2022 the Australian resources industry and energy industry directly employed 295,200 people the highest level of employment ever recorded by the industry.
With a number of large new projects entering production over the past two years, iron ore will play a more modest role in new project growth over the next five-year period, with seven projects requiring some 1800 new workers. The most notable area of emerging opportunity for Australia is in critical minerals, with a mixture of lithium, graphite, manganese, zircon, vanadium and other rare earths, seeing 19 projects in the category projected to require over 2500 new workers by 2025. Further, there is a healthy supply of new and expansion projects across copper, nickel / cobalt and ‘other commodities’ (e.g. phosphate and sulphate), requiring just under 4000 new workers by 2025. The oil and gas industry contains 18 projects, 10 new and 8 expansions, forecast to require 3635 new workers by the end of 2027. This demand will come much later in the timeline with the most significant new projects predicated to be completed in 2025-2027, requiring 3200 new workers in those two years alone.
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: Australia 9,000 8,000 Mining Operators Mining Trades Mining Engineers
Oil / Gas Operations (Trades, GSO, Engineers)
7,000 New Headcount Required
– – – –
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
5
WESTERN AUSTRALIA CRUX LNG (Shell) • 3mtpa gas/LNG • Est. start-up: 2027 • Est. workforce: 250
SCARBOROUGH (Woodside) • 8mtpa gas/LNG • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 600
BROWSE AND NWS EXTENSION (Woodside) • 11.4mtpa gas/LNG, • Est. start-up: 2027 • Est. workforce: 720
PLUTO EXPANSION (Woodside) • 5mtpa gas/LNG • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 400 IRON BRIDGE (Fortescue) • 22mtpa iron ore • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 900
YANGIBANA (Hastings Technology) • 8.5kt rare earth oxide • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 250
COBRUN (Strandline Resources) • Mineral Sands • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 150 KING OF THE HILLS (Red 5) • 14,000oz gold expansion • Est. start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 300
PARKER RANGE (Min Res.) • 4.6mt iron ore • Est. start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 160
MOUNT HOLLAND MINE & KWINANA PLANT (Covalent Lithium) • 45kt lithium hydroxide • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 300
6
GOONGARRIE (Ardea) • 18kt nickel / cobalt • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 300
BINDULI NORTH (Zijin Mining) • 225,000oz gold expansion • Est. start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 250
AGGREGATE FIGURES 57 Projects
COMMENTARY
11,250 Employees
Western Australia has 33 new projects, 21 expansions and 3 reactivations either committed or likely to proceed between 2022-2027. Total est. value is $88.6bn.
15 12 3 2 1
14 6 3 1
Critical Minerals Gas / LNG / Oil Nickel / Cobalt Lead / Silver
Gold Iron Ore
The mining sector is overwhelmingly the strongest contributor of growth in the first phase, from 20222025. This includes 14 gold projects totalling 2370 workers, with 9 entering production in the second half of 2022 and requiring more than 1650 new workers by the end of this year.
Sulphate of Potash Uranium
15 ‘critical minerals’ projects – including lithium, graphite, rare earths and vanadium – will create demand for over 2100 new workers over the three year period of 2023-2025.
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 11,250. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
3612
plant operators
626
production technicians / general service operators
1208
heavy diesel fitters
104
control room operators
365
1728
supervisors, management, administration
1728
1122
mine engineering, technical, geology
trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
574
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
183
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
This accounts for 51% of the sector’s national workforce and is a historic high figure – 34,000 more people than May 2021 and roughly 30,000 more than the peak of the previous ‘mining boom’ in 2012. Looking forward there are 57 projects in WA’s investment pipeline will create demand for approx. 11,250 new workers by 2027, growing the state’s resources workforce by another 7.5%.
Alumina
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
As of May 2022 Western Australia’s resources and energy industry directly employed 150,700 people.
Six iron ore projects – five of them new – will require a forecast 2140 new workers by the end of 2024. This comes off the back of multiple large-scale projects (Eliwana, South Flank, West Angelas) being recently completed and not included here. Three nickel / cobalt projects will require nearly 700 new workers by 2025, whilst lead / silver, uranium and sulphate projects will demand around 1150 workers within the same timeframe. WA’s oil and gas workforce demand is much more back-ended within this modelling period. The largest (and most speculative) project modelled here is Browse LNG, however Scarborough, Pluto expansion and Crux LNG are all forecast to commence production in late 2026 and 2027. There are eight LNG projects set to enter production earlier in the modelling timeline (2022-2025) however most are expansions requiring minimal new operational personnel (or in the case of three, none).
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: Western Australia 4,000
Mining Operators Mining Trades Mining Engineers
Oil / Gas Operations (Trades, GSO, Engineers)
3,000 New Headcount Required
– – – –
3,500
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
7
QUEENSLAND
SCONI NICKEL PROJECT (Australian Mines Limited) • 46kt Nickel • Est start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 300 RAVENSWOOD (EMR / GEAR) • 200,000oz gold expansion • Est start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 50 (new total 450)
HILLALONG (Shandong Energy) • 4.2mtpa thermal and coking coal • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 436 IRONBARK NO.1 (Fitzroy) • 2.7mtpa thermal coal • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 350
EVA COPPER PROJECT (CMMC) • 46ktpa copper • Est start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 280
OLIVE DOWNS (Pembroke Resources) • 15mtpa coking coal • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 1000 WINCHESTER SOUTH (Whitehaven Coal) • 15mtpa coking coal • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 750
NEW ACLAND STAGE 3 (New Hope Group) • 6.5mtpa thermal coal • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 487 SURAT GAS PROJECT (Arrow Energy) • Gas, 400 TJ/day • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 200
8
VALERIA (Glencore) • 20mtpa thermal coal • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 950
AGGREGATE FIGURES 16 Projects
COMMENTARY
5,560 Employees
Like WA, this is the highest level of direct employment ever recorded by Queensland’s resources industry, and only the second time in history the sector has employed over 80,000 people – the last being November 2013 at 80,600.
Queensland has 12 new projects, 3 expansions and 1 reactivation either committed or likely to proceed between 2022-2027. Total est. value is $17bn.
10
Coal
2
Gold
1
Gas / LNG / Oil
1
Copper
1
Nickel / Cobalt
1
Critical Minerals
While the state’s resources workforce has grown by more than 28% over the past two years alone, growth from 2022-2027 is forecast to be far more modest at 5560 people or 6.5%.
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 5560 workers. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
2221
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
48
plant operators
730
heavy diesel fitters
265
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
8
production technicians / general service operators control room operators
86
trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
1072
supervisors, management, administration
44
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
1072
mine engineering, technical, geology
14
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
As of May 2022 Queensland’s resources and energy industry directly employed 84,600 people, or roughly 29% of the national workforce.
Of the 16 ‘committed’ or ‘likely’ projects in its five-year pipeline, coal is by far the star of the show. The sector has ten projects – nine of which are new – forecast to demand 4524 new workers by 2027, with most of that demand being before 2025. This is forecast to raise the number of people directly employed in Queensland’s coal industry from the present 28,600 to around 33,000, or 15% growth. In other commodities, two gold projects are expected to create demand for over 350 new workers by 2023. The Eva Copper Project is estimated to be complete in 2023 requiring 280 personnel, and the Sconi nickel / copper mine forecast to require 300 workers also in 2023. The Mount Carbine tungsten project expansion rounds out the ‘likely’ projects with 100 employees expected in 2023. Queensland’s oil and gas industry is comparatively scant with new or expansion projects. Phases 2-5 of Arrow Energy’s Surat Gas Project is the only development listed as committed or ‘likely’, requiring 200 additional operating personnel in 2026. Looking at the wider project pipeline, Queensland has 61 projects worth potentially 18,000 new production phase jobs, in early stages of feasibility. This highlights the enormous opportunities for the state should it see more projects become committed.
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: Queensland 2,500 Mining Operators Mining Trades Mining Engineers
New Headcount Required
– – –
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
9
NEW SOUTH WALES
HAWSONS (Carpentaria Exploration) • 10mtpa iron ore • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 500 BROKEN HILL COBALT (Cobalt Blue) • 3.55kt cobalt • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 400
VICKERY (Whitehaven) • 8mpta thermal and coking coal • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 700
NARRABRI CSG PROJECT (Santos) • Gas, 200 TJ/day • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 200
MT PLEASANT OPTIMISATION (Mach Energy) • 7.5mtpa thermal coal • Est. start-up: 2026 • Est. workforce: 500 COWAL (Evolution) • 350k oz gold expansion • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 230
MCPHILLAMYS (Regis Resources) • 192k oz gold • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 260
MANDALONG SOUTHERN EXTENTION (Centennial) • Coal expansion • Est. start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 300
TAHMOOR SOUTH (SIMEC Group) • 3.5mtpa • Est. start-up: 2022 • Est. workforce: 400
10
AGGREGATE FIGURES 19 Projects
COMMENTARY As of May 2022, the New South Wales resources and energy industry directly employed 33,900 people.
4,635 Employees
This is just 11.5% of the industry’s national workforce. Further, bucking the national trend, this is 3500 people, or 9.4%, less than two years ago.
New South Wales has 6 new projects and 13 expansions either committed or likely to proceed between 2022-2027. Total est. value is $15.5bn.
12
Coal
4
Gold
1
Gas / LNG / Oil
1
Iron Ore
1
Nickel / Cobalt
Notwithstanding this decline, NSW has a healthy number of new and expansion projects in its investment pipeline, set to add approx. 4635 production-oriented workers to its workforce by the end of 2027. This would represent 13.7% growth on today’s employment levels. Like Queensland, the strong majority of this demand will come from the coal sector. Eleven coal project expansions will add another 53.3mtpa onto NSW’s annual coal production and require an estimated 2865 new workers by 2026. Another lone new coal project (Wallarah 2) is scheduled for completion in 2027, requiring 290 workers.
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 11,250. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
1815
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
48
plant operators
production technicians / general service operators
Gold is the second most represented commodity, with three expansions and one new project (McPhillamys) set to come online by 2026 and require about 670 new workers.
control room operators
Rounding out mining, the Broken Hill Cobalt Project is expected to require 400 employees in 2024 and Hawsons iron ore will require 500 workers in 2026.
86
trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
Finally, NSW has one gas project advanced in feasibility, being Narrabri. Should the project proceed, it would be operational in or around 2025 and require 200 production-based workers.
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
This would be a 12.5% uptick on the state’s present existing oil and gas extraction workforce being 1650 people.
577
heavy diesel fitters
269
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
887
supervisors, management, administration
44
mine engineering, technical, geology
14
887
Should this to come fruition it would lift NSW’s coal workforce, which has been in fairly strong decline in recent years, by nearly 20%.
8
Looking to projects earlier in feasibility, NSW has an additional 28 projects which could double the forecast workforce demand to 9000, if those projects were to hypothetically all proceed.
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: New South Wales 2,000 1,800 1,600
Mining Operators Mining Trades Mining Engineers
New Headcount Required
– – –
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
11
VICTORIA & TASMANIA
STOCKMAN (Round Oak Minerals) • 15kt copper • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 250
GOLDEN BEACH GAS (GB Energy) • Gas, 250 TJ/d • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 5
OTWAY PHASE 3 (Cooper Energy) • Gas, 150 TJ/d • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 150
DOLPHIN PROJECT (King Island Scheelite) • 275ktpa tungsten reactivation • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 65
12
ENTERPRISE PROJECT (Beach Energy) • Gas, 20 mmboe • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 120
RENISEN EXPANSION (Metals X) • 8.5kt tin expansion • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 5
AGGREGATE FIGURES 6 Projects
COMMENTARY As of May 2022, Victoria’s resources and energy industry had 8500 directly employed resources and energy workers and Tasmania 2900. This represents just 2.9% and 1% of the national workforce, respectively.
595 Employees
Victoria and Tasmania combined have 6 projects either committed or likely to proceed between 2022-2027. Total est. value is $650m.
3
Gas / LNG / Oil
1
Critical Minerals
1
Copper
1
Other Commodities
Both are now at similar levels to 2020, despite seeing a temporary increase in workforce numbers throughout 2021. Tasmania, coming off a smaller base, has seen fluctuations of up to 1000 people on a quarterly basis during the pandemic years. Looking forward, Victoria has 11 projects in its development pipeline that could potentially create over 1000 new jobs in the state. However, only four of these are either committed or considered likely to proceed at this stage, requiring 525 workers.
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 595 employees. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
plant operators
66
production technicians / general service operators
45
heavy diesel fitters
11
control room operators
13
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
64
supervisors, management, administration
61
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
64
mine engineering, technical, geology
20
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
134
117
Those four projects include two new gas developments and one expansion, expected to create demand for 275 new workers. Note, the Golden Beach Gas Project (comprising unmanned offshore infrastructure and a pipeline) is listed as only requiring five operating employees. Should the project also include a proposed onshore gas plant, this number would lift considerably. Victoria’s sole mining project is the proposed new Stockman Copper Project, which could create demand for 250 new workers by end of 2023. Tasmania’s only ‘committed’ project is an expansion of the Renison tin mine, which will mainly be for employment continuity. Reactivation of the Dolphin Project on King Island is considered ‘likely’ and would require 65 workers.
trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
Looking at more speculative projects in Tasmania does not offer much more in future employment. Four other proposed mining projects are too early (or unlikely) in development to warrant an employment forecast and Woodside’s proposed Bell Bay Hydrogen Hub is the sole prospective energy development.
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: Victoria and Tasmania 350 Mining Oil & Gas
New Headcount Required
– –
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
13
NORTHERN TERRITORY & SOUTH AUSTRALIA
FINNISS LITHIUM PROJECT (Core Exploration) • 175ktpa spodumene • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 132 BAROSSA BACKFILL TO DARWIN LNG (Santos) • Gas/LNG, 9 mmboe pa • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 350
JERVOIS (KGL Resources) • 21kt copper • Est. start-up: 2025 • Est. workforce: 260
TANAMI EXPANSION 2 (Newmont GoldCorp) • 58,000oz expansion • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 180
AMMAROO (CD Capital) • 2mtpa phosphate • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 250
SIVIOUR (Renascor Resources) • 28kt graphite • Est. start-up: 2024 • Est. workforce: 100
KALKAROO (Havilah Resources) • 80kt copper, 72,000oz gold • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 260 HILLSIDE (Rex Minerals) • 35kt copper/ 24,000oz gold • Est. start-up: 2023 • Est. workforce: 430
14
AGGREGATE FIGURES 9 Projects
COMMENTARY As of May 2022, the South Australian resources and energy industry directly employed 12,200 people, representing 4.1% of the national workforce.
1,960 Employees
While workforce levels have fluctuated during the past 2-3 years, hitting a record peak of 17,600 people in February 2021, the state is overall sitting at a similar level of direct resources employment as it did during the previous investment ‘boom’ ending in 2012.
Northern Territory and South Australia combined have 9 projects either committed or likely to proceed between 20222027. Total est. value is $8.2bn.
4
Copper
2
Critical Minerals
1
Gas / LNG / Oil
1
Gold
1
Other Commodities
Four ‘committed’ or ‘likely’ major projects currently reside in SA’s investment pipeline. Three of these are in copper and are expected to demand 690 new workers in 2023 and 2024. One graphite project (Siviour) is forecast to require 100 new workers in 2024. This demand should see SA’s mining workforce increase by 5.5% over the next three years. Looking at more speculative projects, another 11 possible developments sit in the state’s major project pipeline which could demand over 1000 additional jobs combined.
The total new operating workforce required by these projects is an estimated 1960 employees. Broken down into the below skills groups, demand will include:
MINING OCCUPATIONS
ENERGY OCCUPATIONS
673
plant operators
84
production technicians / general service operators
225
heavy diesel fitters
14
control room operators
68
other trades (electrical, maintenance)
151
There is real potential for this decline to be turned around in the next five years. The Barossa backfill gas project is expected to require 350 production personnel during or before 2025.
trade technicians (maintenance, instruments, electrical)
322
supervisors, management, administration
77
management (supervisors, plant and supply chain, HSE)
322
mine engineering, technical, geology
25
engineers, geologists, lab analysts
The Northern Territory’s resources and energy industry directly employed 2000 people in May 2022. This is just 0.7% of the industry’s national workforce and comes after the Territory has experienced continued decline in direct resources employment, down from its historic peak of 7500 in February 2017.
There are also four mining projects, albeit modest in size, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 requiring around 820 new workers. While these projects alone could lift the NT’s direct resources workforce by nearly 60%, there are also an additional 13 mining and 2 gas projects earlier in feasibility that, if all come to fruition, offer an additional 1850 jobs on top of those modelled in this report.
New workforce demand (2022-2027) by skills group: Northern Territory and South Australia 800
Mining Operators Mining Trades Mining Engineers
New Headcount Required
– – –
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
15
ADDITIONAL DATA BREAKDOWN New workforce demand (by state / territory, accumulative)
– – – –
12,000 WA
10,000
QLD NSW Others
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2025
2026
2027
2025
2026
2027
Projects: Commodity Breakdown (by year expected first production)
– – – – –
12 Coal
10
Gold Critical Minerals
8
Gas/Oil
6
Other
4 2 0 2022
2023
2024
Workforce: Commodity Breakdown (by year expected demand)
– – – – –
3,000 Coal
2,500
Gold Critical Minerals
2,000
Gas/Oil
1,500
Other
1,000 500 0 2022
16
2023
2024
Metal ore mining* workforce (2017-2027) 160,000 140,000
– –
Historic Forecast
120,000 100,000 8,000 6,000
* includes iron ore, gold, lead, silver, nickel, cobalt and copper
4,000 2,000 0 2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2021
2023
2025
2027
Oil and gas extraction workforce (2017-2027) 35,000 30,000
– –
Historic
25,000
Forecast
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2017
Coal mining workforce (2017-2027) 70,000 60,000
– –
Historic
50,000
Forecast
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2017
Non-metallica mining workforce (2017-2027) 18,000 16,000
– –
14,000 Historic Forecast
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2017
2019
17
PROJECTS
18
PROJECT
COMMODITY
YEAR
EST. WORKFORCE
WESTERN AUSTRALIA Abra Lead-Silver Project Australian Vanadium Project Battery Anode Graphite Facility (Stages 1 and 2) Bellevue Gold Project Beyondie (Stage 2) Binduli North Browse and NWS extention Buckland Project (incl Bungaroo sth) Butcherbird (Stage 2) Coburn Crux LNG Dorado Eneabba Rare Earths Processing Plant Gabanintha Goongarrie Nickel Cobalt Project Gorgon (Stage 2) Greater Western Flank (Phase-3) and Lambert Deep Greenbushes Expansion CGP3 Havieron Higginsville Mill Expansion (Phase 2) High Purity Alumina Refining Project - Phases 1 and 2 Iron Bridge Jansz-Io Compression Project Julimar-Brunello Project (Phase 2) Kalgoorlie Crack & Leach / Mt Weld Kalgoorlie production centre Kathleen Valley King of the Hills Kwinana Lithium Plant (Covalent Lithium) Kwinana Lithium Plant (Stage 2) Lake Giles iron ore project (Moonshine and Ularring) Lake Wells Mardie Salt & Potash Project Marillana and Opthalima Mount Holland Lithium Mine Mt Ida Bottle Creek Mt Thirsty Mulga Rock Norseman Odysseus Parker Range (Mt Caudan) Pilgangoora (Phase 1 and 2 Expansions) Pluto expansion (Train 2) Queens Valley (Solomon Hub) expansion Scarborough Sorby Hills Spartan Development Telfer West Dome (Stage 5) Thunderbird (Dampier) Thunderbox Mill Expansion Tropicana Havana (Stage 3 Cutback) Waitsia (Stage 2)
Lead, silver Vanadium Graphite Gold Sulphate of potash Gold Gas / LNG Hematite Manganese concentrate Ilmenite, zircon, HiTi LNG Oil Rare earths Vanadium oxide Nickel, cobalt Gas Gas / LNG Spodumene (lithium) Gold Gold Alumina Magnetite (iron ore) Gas / LNG Gas / LNG Rare earths Gold Spodumene concentrate (lithium) Gold Lithium hydroxide Lithium Magnetite/ hematite (iron ore) Sulphate of potash Sulphate of potash, salt Hematite (iron ore) Spodumene (lithium) Gold Cobalt, nickel Uranium Gold Nickel Hematite (iron ore) Spodumene concentrate (lithium) LNG Hematite Gas / LNG Lead, silver Gas Gold Zircon, ilmenite, leucoxene Gold Gold Gas / LNG
2023 2023 2024 2022 2024 2022 2027 2023 2024 2023 2027 2025 2025 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2024 2024 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2023 2024 2022 2024 2025 2024 2023 2025 2024 2024 2023 2025 2025 2022 2022 2022 2025 2026 2022 2026 2024 2023 2022 2024 2023 2022 2023
280 240 65 100 35 250 720 200 150 150 250 350 100 120 300 40 Backfill 50 84 100 140 900 Backfill 15 120 350 350 300 150 50 258 200 220 625 150 30 300 350 260 80 160 43 400 Continuity 600 95 100 205 140 150 240 55
PROJECT WESTERN AUSTRALIA Warrawoona West Erregulla (Phase 1 ) Wiluna Growth Project (Stage 1) Yandal Yangibana QUEENSLAND Belview Burton / Lenton Eva Copper Project Dysart East Hillalong Ironbark No. 1 Mount Morgan Tailings Project Mt Carbine (Stage 2) New Acland (Stage 3 extension) Olive Downs (phase 2) Ravenswood (Sarsfield open pit) Sconi Surat Gas Project (Phases 2-5) Valeria Wilton-Fairhill Winchester South NEW SOUTH WALES Angus Place West Broken Hill Cobalt Project Bulga Optimisation Project mod 3 and Bulga Underground mod 7 Cadia Expansion Cadia Panel Caves 1-2 Chain Valley Extension Cowal Hawsons Mandalong Southern Extension Mangoola Continued Operations McPhillamys Mount Owen Continued Operations (Modification 2) Mt Pleasant Optimisation Project Narrabri coal seam gas project Narrabri (Stage 3) Stratford extension Tahmoor South Vickery Wallarah 2 VICTORIA Enterprise Project Golden Beach Gas project Otway (Phase 3) Development Project Stockman Project TASMANIA Dolphin Project Renison Expansion Project (Area 5) SOUTH AUSTRALIA Hillside Kalkaroo Prominent Hill - Wira Hoist Shaft - Life of Mine Extension & Expansion Siviour (Stage 1) NORTHERN TERRITORY Ammaroo (Stage 1 and 2) Barossa backfill to Darwin LNG Finniss Lithium project (Stage 1) Jervois Tanami Expansion 2
COMMODITY
YEAR
EST. WORKFORCE
Gold Gas Gold Gold Rare earth oxide
2022 2023 2022 2022 2024
120 80 100 80 250
Coal Coal Copper, gold Coal Coal Coal Gold Tungsten tailings Coal Coal Gold Nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate Gas Coal Coal Coal
2027 2025 2023 2025 2023 2023 2023 2023 2025 2024 2022 2024 2026 2027 2023 2023
290 244 280 200 436 350 100 102 487 1000 50 300 200 667 100 750
Coal Cobalt sulphate Coal Gold Gold Coal Gold Iron Ore Coal Coal Gold Coal Coal Gas Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal
2024 2024 2026 2022 2026 2023 2023 2026 2022 2023 2024 2024 2026 2025 2026 2022 2022 2025 2027
200 400 50 75 105 220 230 500 300 80 260 0 500 200 0 125 400 700 290
Gas Gas Gas Copper, zinc, silver
2023 2023 2025 2023
120 5 150 250
Tungsten trioxide Tin
2023 2025
65 5
Copper, gold Copper, gold, cobalt Copper, gold Graphite
2023 2023 2024 2024
430 260 Continuity 100
Phosphate Gas / LNG / condensate Spodumene concentrate (lithium) Copper, silver, gold Gold
2024 2025 2022 2025 2024
250 350 130 260 180
19