IN
recent decades, Democrats have tended to win mainly when Republicans screwed up, or when they got lucky. Nowhere has that been truer than in Nevada. No Democrat running for president since the 1960s has commanded a majority in Nevada—until Barack Obama.
by DENNIS MYERS
Obama carried the state easily in 2008, but it’s his 2012 reelection that is getting more attention. The remarkable win came in the face of such economic obstacles that activists and strategists have been studying the Nevada results. Fortunately, there’s a plethora of research to turn to, as it has piled up over the months since the election. It has delivered a sobering message to Republicans. In numerous major demographics, the Democratic vote for president was higher in Nevada than in the nation generally. For instance, according to Edison Research exit polls done for the New York Times, among women, Obama received 57 percent of the vote in Nevada, only 55 nationally. Voters aged 18 to 29 went for Obama by 60 percent nationally, and by 68 percent in Nevada. Among voters 30 to 44, Obama won 52 percent nationally—2 percent lower than in Nevada. Among voters nationally who make less than $30,000 a year, Obama received 63 percent of the vote. Those Nevadans gave him 68 percent of their votes. Among voters who earn $30,000 to $49,000, Obama won 57 percent nationally, but in Nevada he finished a whopping 10 percent higher—67 percent. Nevada Democrats gave Obama 95 percent of their votes compared to 92 percent across the country. This pattern does not hold everywhere, but even in categories where Mitt Romney won, he usually received poorer showings than in his national numbers. Among whites, Romney won by 59 percent nationally—but in Nevada by 57 percent. Among voters 45 to 64, Romney won 51 percent nationally, 49 in Nevada. Perhaps most astounding is that Romney failed to win Nevada men. Male voters nationally gave Romney 52 percent of their ballots. Nevada men gave 49 percent. And Obama was more popular with Nevadans overall than with voters across the nation. He won Nevada by 52.3 percent while carrying the United States by 51.06 percent.
Evidence from 2012 election suggests Nevada is shifting politically, and fast
OPINION
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NEWS
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GREEN
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FEATURE STORY
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ARTS&CULTURE
There are some glimmers of hope for Republicans. One category where this pattern breaks sharply is among Asian-American voters, an increasingly important demographic in Clark County. Among them, Obama received 73 percent of the vote nationally, but only 50 percent in Nevada. Other than Asians, another category that should be heartening to Republicans is Romney’s showing among independent voters. In Nevada it was the same as it was nationally—a narrow 50 percent victory. Among Latinos, Obama’s Nevada percentage is the same as nationally—but Romney’s total is lower in Nevada than nationally, suggesting that even if Latinos decide not to vote Democratic, they don’t necessarily turn to the GOP as an alternative. And there were a couple of categories where Romney actually received a higher Nevada percentage than nationally—among the top earners—but these voters are not numerous. Nevadans earning more than $50,000 a year gave him 55 percent of their votes, compared to 53 nationally. Those making $100,000 a year and above in Nevada gave him 61 percent of their votes compared to 54 percent nationally. For much of the 20th century, Nevada was a state ruled by coalitions of Republicans and conservative Democrats. Overall, the numbers suggest that in the 21st, something fundamental is changing.
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IN ROTATION
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ART OF THE STATE
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FOODFINDS
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FILM
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NIGHTCLUBS/CASINOS
| THIS WEEK
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MISCELLANY
MECHANICS VS. ISSUES
Until Obama came along, Democrats running for president in Nevada needed special circumstances to win the state. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson won Nevada in a lopsided, essentially noncompetitive race—but even then trailed his national showing. In 1992 and 1996, Bill Clinton won the state in fluke elections because he faced two conservatives who split their vote—the elder George Bush and Ross Perot in 1992, Robert Dole and Perot in 1996. On neither occasion did Clinton receive a majority either in Nevada or the nation, winning by plurality both times. Other than those exceptions, Republicans won the state’s presidential race for five decades. Then Obama came on the scene. He has now carried the state by majorities twice. And his stronger Nevada standing over his national showing suggests a transition may be underway in the Silver State. His first victory could be written off to the Bush recession and the Wall Street meltdown and bailouts before he was elected.
“GAME CHANGE” continued on page 14
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FEBRUARY 21, 2013
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RN&R
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