RBTH for The Telegraph in November

Tuesday 17 November 2015

Special Report

Culture

Conquest of the North

Skeleton crew

The competition to stake a claim to the natural riches of the frozen Arctic hots up

British musicians resurrect the Soviet tradition of producing melodies from medical X-rays

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Shared grief: Russians lay flowers in front of the French embassy in Moscow

T

he shock and outrage in the wake of last Friday’s attacks in Paris, that left at least 129 dead and hundreds wounded, has put defeating Islamist terrorists at the top of the international agenda. The slaughter has also put the need for international co-operation to combat terrorism under an urgent new focus.

Prime Minister David Cameron met Russian President Vladimir Putin on the fringes of the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey, yesterday to discuss a common approach, telling Mr Putin that Russian interests would be “protected” in plans to bring peace to Syria. But in comments to the press later, Mr Cameron cautioned that more compromise – on both sides – was needed. The Prime Minister said he had told Mr Putin – one of Bashar alAssad’s main supporters – that Russia’s bombing of the moderate opposition in Syria was a “mistake”.

“The gap has been enormous between those of us who believe Assad should go immediately and those like President Putin who have been supporting and continue to support him,” Mr Cameron said.“I think it has been reduced… I hope we can close the gap still further, but it will need compromise on both sides.”

Following their intense 20-minute conversation at the G20 in Ankara on Sunday, Mr Putin held another unscheduled talk with Barack Obama yesterday. The US president has expressed his sorrow about another recent tragedy when on 31 October a Russian charter flight crashed over the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt killing all 224 people on board. With fears growing that Metrojet Flight 9268 was brought down by a terrorist bomb, Mr Putin and Mr Cameron talked by telephone last week to begin establishing a greater understanding between London and Moscow, the lack of which has been hampering efforts to unearth the truth.

British intelligence appears to have solid proof that a bomb was planted on the Russian aircraft by an offshoot of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil) in the Sinai peninsula. The threat is such that the British media, citing Whitehall officials, reported that Mr Cameron was ready to help Egypt or Russia in a “kill or capture” mission using elite SAS troops to strike hard and fast. The Kremlin has also requested FBI help to learn who or what caused the crash, with the US federal agency swiftly agreeing to bring its vast resources to help the Russian investigation.

Where previous attempts by Russia to forge a united international front to strike against the terrorist menace in the Middle East have failed, revulsion over the Paris atrocities and Russia’s deadliest ever air crash may achieve a common purpose, although a single coalition against Isil has not yet emerged.

Time to act As determination increases in the aftermath of Paris and Sinai, an opportunity is opening for fresh efforts between Russia and the West to co-operate on security issues. After nearly two years of worsening international relations between the West and Russia, it could mark a watershed in relations. Russia is open to such an approach, as its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly asserted. He said last week: “For the entire international community, the objective is to increase the efficiency of the war against terrorism and

AP

Air disaster

TERROR: UNITED WE STAND, DIVIDED WE FALL

at the same time seek a political solution to the problems in Syria,Yemen and other countries in the region.”

Vladimir Sotnikov, head of Moscow thinktank the East-West Strategic Studies Centre, told RBTH: “Whenever there are breaches in providing security – and it looks like there were failures in ensuring the safety of foreign nationals on holiday in Egypt, the threat of terrorism will increase.” He said that the lack of security affected the interests of thousands of people – not only Russians – and that “the actions taken by many foreign governments in the wake of the air crash prove that they understand this. And it has to be dealt with irrespective of any other thorny issues, for instance, the differences Russia has with the American administration and the British government over the crisis in Ukraine.”

Hard road

At least 129 dead in gun and bomb attacks in Paris; 224 lives lost as a Russian tourist flight is brought down over Egypt. In a bloody terrorist autumn,Vladimir Putin met Barack Obama and David Cameron to appeal again for co-operation between East and West to tackle the Isil threat.

By Sergei Strokan and Vladimir Mikheev

The road to putting together an international response to a global challenge will be bumpy. The New York Times recently ran a story that seems to have been taken directly from a Cold War manual on superpower relations, claiming there was a“deepening belief in the Russian public, stoked

by Mr Putin’s propaganda machine, that western governments are conspiring against the country’s interests”.

The Kremlin’s recent concerted diplomatic engagement contradicts such assertions, however; the West – particularly the US and UK – are viewed as partners in pursuing a common goal.

“Co-operation is often spurred by the perception of having a common enemy – as was seen when the West allied with Islamists against Russia in Afghanistan in the Eighties, at a time when communism

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rather than Islamism was seen as the primary threat,” Jane Kinninmont, a senior research fellow at the British international affairs think-tank Chatham House, told RBTH.

Al-Qaeda card Signs that the terrorists are also seeking to concentrate their efforts against their enemies are also likely to spur greater cooperation between Russia and the West. A statement issued by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri following the Metrojet crash may also prompt a common response.

“The Americans, Russians, Iranians, Alawites and Hezbollah are coordinating their war against us – are we not capable of stopping the fighting among ourselves so we can direct all our efforts against them?” Zawahiri said. (See Politics & Society, p3).

Although the terrorist leader did not mention Europe, it is inconceivable that it was exempt, given the centuries-old perception by Muslim fundamentalists of Europeans as crusaders from the West.

“The sense that jihadi terrorists are a common enemy is already fostering some co-operation between the West and Russia – but such co-operation is hampered by the lack of consensus on the identity and motivations of terrorists, and therefore also on the way to fight them,” Ms Kinninmont said.

If the West and Russia fail to realise that they are being targeted by a common enemy driven by a deep-seated hatred, and if they fail to admit that internal squabbling weakens them in the face of adversity, then the chances of winning not just the battle but the war against global terrorism are pitifully slim.

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Syria breakthrough: an end to the slaughter in sight?

Diplomacy The country’s future depends on finding a balance of the main regional players’ interests

discuss the options for Assad’s legitimate departure or conduct a dialogue about Syrian federalisation.

GEVORG MIRZAYAN

No change in US strategy

SPECIAL TO RBTH

Foreign ministers and representatives from 20 countries agreed a road map to peace in Syria in Vienna on Saturday. With the terrorist attacks in Paris the night before giving the second round of talks fresh urgency, there was agreement on setting up a transitional government within six months and elections within 18 months.

As positive as that result is, the success of subsequent rounds of talks to resolve a bitter civil war that has claimed the lives of more than 310,000 people over the past four years depends on the ability of the parties to achieve a balance of mutual interests.

“No one is lying to themselves about the difficulties we are facing but the determination to find a solution has progressed in the 14 days since the first round of talks,” said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Whether President Bashar al-Assad has a role to play in the future of Syria – a key Russian demand – remains a sticking point. Many in the international community see his departure as a precondition for progress.

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, said the “political process has to be accompanied by a ceasefire. That will help to end the bloodshed as quickly as possible.” He added: “This war cannot end so long as Bashar al-Assad is there.”Diplomats plan now to meet again next month and to bring the Syrian government and opposition representatives together by 1 January next year.

Here, RBTH looks at the main regional players’ interests and assesses where the red lines of the talks’ main participants lie.

The Russian agenda According to the Kremlin, Russia’s primary interest is to weaken Isil and, if possible,

destroy it. Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia intends to “fight and destroy the militants and terrorists on the territories they already occupy and not wait until they come to our house”.This suggests he believes they are a direct threat to the former Soviet Central Asian republics and to the Muslim population in Russia.

Although Moscow became involved militarily in the Syrian conflict only after it became clear Isil was turning into an uncontrollable threat, some believe the Russian bombing was triggered because Assad appeared to be cornered.

Isil is not the only threat that Moscow wants to extinguish. Ivan Timofeev of the Russian International Affairs Council says: “The aim of the Russian operation is to help end the civil war, which is turning Syria into a failed state, a grey zone of world politics and a refuge for all kinds of terrorists and extremists.”

At the same time, the Kremlin has its own pragmatic interests, notes Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Centre for Strategic Communications. By supporting Assad, Russia is trying to strengthen its international position and demonstrate to its real and potential allies and partners the reliability of Russian guarantees. Moreover, it is important for Russia to show its military and political capabilities in carrying out local anti-terrorist operations and, for the first time since the Cold War, bring its foreign policy to a global level.

Analysts say this will stop Assad’s opponents pushing Moscow to back away from Syria, since what is at stake is Russia’s claim to a great-power role. A global agenda also gives the Kremlin room for manoeuvre; it is ready to make local concessions that do not contradict its wider aims – for example, to

Round two in battle to end a war The first Vienna talks started on 30 October.

The initial round of negotiations, designed to bring an end to the war in Syria – the first to include all foreign powers involved in the conflict – failed to reach agreement on key issues, including a time frame for Bashar al-Assad’s departure and the exit of foreign forces supporting Damascus. Its significance was that all parties – some with widely differing positions, such as Russia and US – sat down together for the first time. Saturday’s meeting was the second round of the talks.

America’s initial enemy in Syria was Assad’s regime, and Washington’s strategy continues to be the removal of Assad. Even though the appearance of Isil makes this strategy practically impossible to implement, Washington seems reluctant to change course. But Isil is now the key threat. Alexei Malashenko of the Scientific Council at the Carnegie Moscow Centre says the US has not only agreed with the Kremlin that “Assad’s regime is the true alternative to the Islamists”, but has also acknowledged Russia’s right “to carry out military activities and, broadly speaking, the legitimacy of its military-political presence in the Middle East”.

Symbolism in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is playing tough at Vienna. “For Riyadh, the Assad issue has a good deal of symbolism”, says Leonid Isaev, a professor of political science at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “If Saudi diplomacy fails in Syria, the Arab world will consider it a strategic victory for Tehran and will doubt Saudi Arabia’s guarantees in confronting Iranian expansion in the region.”

For Iran, control of Syrian territory is an existential issue, says Matthew McGuinness, a former senior Iran analyst at the US Armed Forces Central Command. If Assad loses and a Sunni regime comes to power, a cordon sanitaire from Azerbaijan to Kuwait will stretch along Iran’s western border and Iranian-controlled Iraq, depriving the Iranians of the Levant and the Mediterranean Sea. That is why Tehran is the Assad regime’s main sponsor. At the same time, Iran is not ready to fully support the Syrian leader and send him an expeditionary force, since that risks placing the conflict at the level of a regional war between Sunnis and Shia.

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Late last Friday, Russia’s track-and-field athletes heard the news they had been dreading: the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) accepted the recommendations of the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) and temporarily banned the country from competing in international athletics competitions. The ban, supported by 22 of the 23 voting members of the governing body’s executive council, may mean that no Russian athletes will compete in the track-and-field events at next year’s Olympics in Rio, though no specific terms for the exclusion have been set out and the ban can be lifted at any point before the games.

Russia has also lost the rights to stage the World Junior Championships in Kazan and the World Race-Walking Championships in Cheboksary, both of which were scheduled for 2016.

The ban was based on a 325-page report compiled by a commission headed by former Wada president Dick Pound that alleged there was a programme of doping and

Prepared by Olga Dmitrieva

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a small percentage of interest in helping the sport and athletes then I can rule out [any ban].” Several athletes and coaches shared that suspicion. Track-and-field coach Evgeny Zagorulko told the Russian daily Izvestia: “Anyone can see how our athletics has improved over the past few years. We’ve built facilities that other countries don’t have and that threatens them.”

The Olympic high jump champion Andrey Silnov, one of Zagorulko’s protégés, also claimed that the doping allegations had a political motive.

concealment at the highest levels of Russian sport. The decision was a bitter blow for Russia, whose senior officials and prominent athletes alike had argued against a blanket ban that would equally penalise clean competitors and suspected cheats.

Clean commitment Mixed messages

ANDY POTTS

Rossiyskaya Gazeta (Russian Gazette), the official newspaper of the Russian government, has recently celebrated its 25th birthday. Launched on 11 November 1990 on the initiative of Boris Yeltsin (the then leader of the upper house of the Russian parliament and a future president of Russia), the first issue carried an exhortation to President Gorbachev to cancel the military parade commemorating the Great October Socialist Revolution on 7 November – on the grounds of the worsening economic situation in the former USSR. The new newspaper was intended as a counterblast to Pravda, the official newspaper of the Communist Party.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta now carries all the official government Acts and presidential decrees, so is essential reading for the country’s politicians, administrators and captains of industry. Indeed, no Act can be passed into law until it has been published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

The circulation for the first issue was 20,000; today the readership stands at 1,000,000, with an online figure of 15,000,000 per month, and research shows that it is the most trusted media source in Russia. In 2009, media monitoring agency TNS Media Intelligence claimed that, alongside Kommersant and Izvestia, Rossiyskaya Gazeta was the key source of business and political news in Russia.

Currently, under the banner of Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH), Rossiyskaya Gazeta also publishes 39 supplements on Russian affairs in 30 countries in partnership with leading newspapers in each of those countries.

RBTH also publishes 22 websites, with Russia-related news and features on politics and society, business, culture and sport, in 18 languages.

“Our experience shows that foreign readers are interested to learn about Russia,” said editor-in-chief Vladislav Fronin in a TV interview on the day of the celebration. “The supplements help us to fulfil our main goal and to widen the horizons of knowledge about Russia.

“The field of interest of our western colleagues is usually limited – to our regret or our happiness – to a little area between the Kremlin and Bolotnaya Square [a popular assembly place in central Moscow],” he added with a smile.

“This leaves us with a huge area of all the other subjects about Russia.”

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Temporary ban puts Russia’s Olympic dreams on hold Doping claims Putin pledges full investigation and co-operation but trackand-field team may miss Rio

ALEXANDR KOROLKOV / RG

On 11 November, after the report was released, but before the IAAF meeting, President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the leaders of Russia’s sports federations and instructed sports minister Vitaly Mutko to pay close attention to the allegations, including conducting a full internal investigation that would co-operate fully with Wada and other international doping bodies. Mr Mutko later suggested that foreign doping-control experts could be invited to work with the Moscow testing lab.

The sports minister also insists Russia supports the anti-doping campaign and pays annual subscriptions of £350,000 to Wada.

Grigory Rodchenkov, the head of the Moscow drug testing lab at the heart of the claims, had a more acerbic response. “Dick Pound alleged that I ordered the destruction of 1,417 bio-samples,” Mr Rodchenkov told Russian newspaper Ves Sport. “We stored every sample that Wada asked us to preserve during the course of the investigation. Our freezers are full. We only threw away those samples that had expired before we had

Testing issue: the Moscow lab was alleged to have destroyed samples

© RUSLAN KRIVOBOK / RIA NOVOSTI

instructions from Wada. It was a planned removal of samples that expired on 10 September, 2015. I have explained many times how and why the samples were destroyed but Wada’s independent commission has found a new interpretation, which implies I suddenly stole these samples and plotted to get rid of them.”

Shortly after issuing the statement, Mr Rodchenkov resigned.

Olympic doubts “Of course it’s possible that Russian athletes might be unable to compete in the Olympics,” Mr Mutko told R-Sport. “For some, it’s a good way of getting rid of a rival competitor; for others it’s a way to damage Russia’s international image. But as long as the international bodies concerned have even

At the World Aquatic Championships in Kazan this summer, Mr Mutko reiterated Russia’s commitment to drug-free sport, outlining the measures that had been taken in conjunction with Wada and other international sporting organisations, including the International Olympic Committee, to curb doping.

Those measures include the passing of new legislation introducing criminal liability for involvement in doping, the creation of the independent Rusada anti-doping agency and a programme of 15,000 drug tests every year with an estimated 2pc of athletes facing disqualification.

After the release of the Wada report, Mr Mutko took a similar stance, telling journalists: “We have clear instructions from the president to find common ground with international organisations and I will do that, I will co-operate with them.”

Those efforts were not enough to convince the IAAF to take a more lenient approach.

Whether they will be enough to allow Russia to hold on to its Olympic dreams – as international sports bodies take an increasingly tough line – remains to be seen.

Politics & Society THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA_www.rbth.co.uk_Tuesday 17 November 2015_P3

Moscow revives surface-to-air missile contract with Iran

journalists at an international airshow in Dubai earlier this month. The signing of the contract means that the S-300 will become the first Russian weapon system to be supplied to Iran after international sanctions against Tehran are lifted. The missiles will considerably increase the “survivability” of Iranian facilities against a possible strike by Israel or the US.

No complaints “The contract has already been signed,” said Mr Chemezov. He added that once the first part of the deal to supply the S-300s to Iran had been completed, Tehran would withdraw its complaint against Russia over failure to fulfil the contract.

Under an agreement between Iran and Russia, signed in 2007, Russia was supposed to supply five batteries of S-300 PMU-1s to Iran, according to the terms of a deal estimated to be worth £530m.

Defence S-300 systems will help protect military facilities against attack from the air ALEXANDER BRATERSKY GAZETA.RU

Russia’s contract with Iran for the supply of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems has now come into effect, the head of the Rostec state corporation, Sergei Chemezov, told

However, after Russia suspended the contract in 2010, Iran filed a £2.6bn lawsuit against Moscow with the International Court of Arbitration. The decision to halt the delivery was taken by Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president at the time.

The Kremlin said that although the S-300 did not fall under UN sanctions imposed on Iran, Moscow had decided not to supply the missile systems to Tehran in order to support negotiations on its nuclear programme. At the time, sources in Russian foreign policy circles said Moscow had taken into consideration the interests of Israel, which had asked it not to supply S-300s to Iran.

Strong defence The S-300 missile system is a powerful weapon intended to defend land targets from enemy aircraft, and has a range of up to 200 miles. The systems have been supplied to many countries, including China,

THE NUMBERS

Bulgaria, Venezuela and Greece. Russia now has a more advanced S-400 system, which is superior to the S-300 in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.

530

Regional competitors

million pounds – value of the deal with Iran for S-300 air defence missiles, a sophisticated weapons system

200

miles – the range of the S-300 makes it one of world’s most effective surface-to-air weapons

Interestingly, having suspended the S-300 contract, Russia offered to supply Iran with Antey-2500 systems. The latter is a modified version of the S-300 V designed specifically for providing ground troops with air defence.

However, Iran rejected the offer.

Military experts point out that the S-300 systems will considerably improve Iran’s defence capability and will make an attack on the country’s military facilities harder.

Israel, one of Iran’s main adversaries in the region, has said that it reserves the right to resort to military action against Iran, while Saudi Arabia is another important opponent for Tehran in the region, as the two countries are competing for influence over Syria.

Terrorism Al-Qaeda leader urges terror groups to overcome differences and launch war against Moscow and the West

Russia may face united Islamist front ALEXEI TIMOFEICHEV RBTH

Internal conflict Whether the prospects for an extremist united front against Russia, the West, their Middle Eastern allies and others is realistic remains unclear. On the one hand, the ranks of radicals in the Middle East have been shaken by internal conflicts in recent years. On the other hand, al-Qaeda is changing the format of its activities, while maintaining its significant potential and attractiveness in the eyes of the members of other extremist groups. This could contribute to the consolidation of radical Islamists around its cells.

The unification of radical groups in the Middle East is hindered by competition for the control of sources of income, which has intensified in recent years against the backdrop of the economic crisis. Another factor is that Islamists have considerable ideological and religious differences.

Speaking to RBTH,Yelena Suponina, an expert on the Middle East at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, described the al-Qaeda leader’s call as an“appeal to nowhere” considering the unpromising current set of circumstances.

Religious divide At the same time, the call to fight against the United States, Russia and the rest of the “infidels” is not a new development. Sergei Demidenko, a Middle East expert from the Institute for Strategic Studies and Analysis, says that according to radical Islamists, western countries and Russia are so-called lands of war, against which permanent jihad, or holy war,

Isil video threat to Kremlin A video distributed on behalf of Isil last week warned of attacks in Russia “very soon”.

The jihadists claimed they would bring down the Kremlin and create a caliphate in parts of the country. A Russian presidential spokesman said the video, which was posted online, was being investigated by special services.

MULTIMEDIA REUTERS

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has called on Islamist groups to overcome their divisions and join forces to oppose the West, Russia, Syria and Iran. His call, which was released in an audio recording on 1 November on one of the sites linked to the terrorist organisation, raises the question of whether extremists can forget their differences and come together to form a united front.

“The Americans, Russians, Iranians, Alawites, and Hezbollah are co-ordinating their war against us – are we not capable of stopping the fighting among ourselves so we can direct all our efforts against them?” Zawahiri said.

It was not clear when the Zawahiri recording was made, but its references to the Russian Federation suggest that it was made after Russia launched its military operation in Syria on 30 September.

Russians join in mourning with the families and friends of those killed in Paris

should be waged. This is the line that Islamists adhere to in relation to all their opponents.

There is, however, a view that Zawahiri’s call to other terror groups is just another attempt by al-Qaeda to “score points’’ in its competition with the extremists of the Islamic State.

It could be seen as al-Qaeda’s way of reacting to the statements of Isil members who claim they that shot down the Russian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula on 31 October.

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“Al-Qaeda is trying to mobilise itself, to come to the fore of the struggle and earn some points,” Alexander Shumilin, the director of the

Centre for the Analysis of Middle East Conflicts at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told RBTH. But experts are concerned about the constant adjusting of al-Qaeda’s format. According to Vladimir Sotnikov, who is a senior researcher at the Institute for Oriental Studies, the organisation has been transformed in recent years into a less centralised structure, with the autonomy of its regional branches having grown. This allows these branches to more actively create situational alliances, including with Isil, making al-Qaeda’s regional structures a serious threat to all opponents of extremists, including Russia.

Appetite for street protests diminishes despite a taste of economic hardship unlikely to support public demonstrations against declining living standards and rights.

The figure is up nine points on a similar poll carried out in December 2014, pollsters from the Levada Centre found. The percentage of Russians who believe that protests over economic demands are possible has dropped from 24pc last December to 18pc now.

Levada polled 1,600 people in 134 locations across 46 Russian regions from 23-26 October.

Only 11pc of respondents said they were ready to take part in protests, compared with 14pc last year, while the overwhelming majority had no intention of participating (83pc compared to 78pc last year).

The number of respondents who believe political protests are possible also dropped – from 16pc last December to 14pc today.

A total of 81pc called such protests unlikely, compared with 77pc last year.

Striking statistics

© ILIA PITALEV / RIA NOVOSTI

Opposition More people reject demonstrations as a way of improving living standards ALEXANDER KOROLKOV SPECIAL TO RBTH

Just four years ago, hundreds of thousands of ordinary people took to the streets of Moscow and St Petersburg in a series of protests against President Vladimir Putin. In December 2011 there were four mass meetings calling for political reform and an end to endemic

Protest past: Alexei Navalny and other opposition leaders rarely take to Russia’s streets today – unlike at the peak of the protests four years ago

corruption. Sparked by a television report on parliamentary election results that mistakenly attributed 146pc of the vote to the Kremlinloyalist party United Russia, popular anger exploded on to the streets.

Today, with opposition leaders out of the focus of public attention, and President Putin’s poll ratings sky-high, the public’s appetite for street protest has evaporated.

Declining living standards A return to mass protests in Russia is unlikely after a new poll found that 77pc of the country’s population said they were

The poll found 8pc of Russians were ready to join political protests (9pc last December), while 85pc are not willing (84pc last year). A total of 30pc said that strikes were an inefficient tool and “could achieve nothing" and 28pc described industrial action as an extreme measure that “was sometimes impossible to avoid under current circumstances’’.

Strikes were seen as a normal way of resolving workplace disputes by 16pc, 7pc said they were the only way to meet demands, and 12pc said they did not believe in organised industrial action.

The figure for those interested in politics was 37pc and 60pc were not, the pollsters found. The Levada Centre findings represent a major blow to opposition hopes that Russia’s growing economic crisis could rekindle mass protests.

Danger zone: an Isil supporter brandishes an AK-47 and the organisation’s black flag in Raqqa

Sleeper cells Mr Sotnikov also believes that clandestine cells associated with al-Qaeda already exist in Russia.“Some resources come to radical Islamists in Russia, especially in the North Caucasus, through Afghanistan and Pakistan,’’ Mr Sotnikov said.

He emphasised that an attack could be carried out by extremists already in Russia, suggesting that it was not necessary for militants to be sent from somewhere else.

Mr Sotnikov cited the suicide bombings that killed 34 people inVolgograd in December 2013, the perpetrators of which were believed to be linked to an Iraqi terrorist group.

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Egypt flight ban will cost jobs in tourism Plane crash Russian firms face bankruptcy as travel to top destination is suspended ANNA KUCHMA RBTH

© RAMIL SITDIKOV / RIA NOVOSTI

Foreign giants could prosper under new drugs regime Pharmaceuticals Companies with factories in Russia see opportunity to expand their businesses and benefit from import substitution KIRA EGOROVA RBTH

When Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev tasked the government with import substitution in the field of pharmaceutical production in May 2015, foreign companies were worried.

Russia’s pharmaceutical market, worth $19bn (£12.5bn) a year, is a fraction of Europe’s, where the top five EU economies have a $157bn turnover, and that of the US, valued at $377bn, according to Pharmaceutical Commerce magazine. But its loss would have been a blow to western drugs companies at a time when the global economic crisis is squeezing profits. However, import substitution will affect only foreign companies that remain net exporters of drugs; for those with a manufacturing presence in Russia it may be beneficial.

“For localised foreigners, this is an opportunity to quickly recover the investments they have made here, while for those with no factories – this is an incentive to localise faster,” says Victor Dmitriyev, chief executive of the Association of Russian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (ARPM). Net importers will in effect lose a significant chunk of the market.

The commercial part of the market is not inevitably affected by import substitution – private companies can still import foreign drugs in volume. However, the public sector will undergo significant changes.

Today, the share of domestic drugs on the

List of Vital and Essential Medicines amounts to 60pc. By 2018, the authorities plan to increase this share to 90pc, reducing imports by a total of 30pc.

Developing the market Giant companies such as Anglo-Swedish firm AstraZeneca, French Sanofi, Swiss Novartis and Danish Novo Nordisk have production facilities across Russia. In 2014, US company Abbott made one of the largest transactions in the history of Russia’s pharmaceutical business by acquiring the country’s second largest drug manufacturer,Veropharm, for 16.7 billion roubles ($495m, at 2014 exchange rates).

Abbott is still optimistic about its prospects in Russia.“We see our investment inVeropharm as an opportunity to participate in the development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry,” Irina Gushchina, Abbott’s head of public relations in Russia, told RBTH. According to Ms Gushchina, the company plans to expand its research capabilities and further develop Veropharm’s production base

Big pharma: market make-up According to analytical agency DSM Group, Russia’s pharmaceutical market is divided into two segments: private sector (commercial companies, individuals) – worth $11.2bn (£7.4bn); and public

sector (state hospitals, clinics) – worth $4.9bn.

The state budget is used to purchase drugs for state-owned clinics (which constitute the majority) and social pharmacies, where lowincome citizens with

chronic illnesses receive medicines for free or at discounted prices. The main objective of pharmaceutical companies in Russia is to get on the state approved List of Vital and Essential Medicines.

Commerce Country now a better place to do business says World Bank report

Electricity boosts Russia up rankings IGOR ROZIN RBTH

Western sanctions and a decline in GDP have failed to dampen the business environment in Russia, which has climbed 11 positions to 51st place in the World Bank’s latest Doing Business rankings, an annual study that analyses regulations and laws that directly affect commerce.

According to the bank’s experts, the country carried out a minor revolution by making getting an electricity connection simpler – in this category Russia shot up a staggering 114 positions.

Over the past year, Russia has managed

to implement several economic reforms that have contributed to significant advancement of the country’s ranking, the World Bank said. In particular, it highlighted the ease of registering property (eighth place in the world) and enforcing contracts (fifth place).

The Doing Business global rankings have become a gold standard for the Russian government, which sees it as a tool for attracting investment. “The rankings are a guide for foreign investors,” one of the study’s authors, Valentina Saltane, told Russian business newspaper Vedomosti.

In May 2012, President Vladimir Putin set

in gynaecology, neurology, gastroenterology and oncology, where the demand for innovative products is particularly high.

“In the strategy of import substitution, we see additional opportunities for business expansion in Russia as a result of co-operation with Russian companies,” said Thibault Crosnier-Leconte, chief executive of Sanofi Pasteur (the vaccine division of Sanofi) in Russia.

The French manufacturer plans to launch a popular vaccine for children at Russian company Nanolek’s factory in St Petersburg. The plant will produce up to 10 million doses annually, which will fully satisfy the demand for this vaccine in Russia, according to Mr Crosnier-Leconte. Sanofi Pasteur plans to start the localisation process of its vaccine production in 2016 with the transfer of know-how for production technology and quality control. The technology transfer will be completed by 2019.

Finding local partners However, some international firms – including US drug company Pfizer, Germany’s Bayer and Belgium’s UCB Pharma – do not have factories in Russia and are wary of the idea. But there is a way out for these companies: they can find local partners and partly move their production to their partners’ facilities.

“Bayer is pursuing its localisation strategy through selective partnerships with Russian producers focused on full-cycle production,” said Niels Hessmann, Bayer’s chief executive in Russia. In 2012, Bayer entered a partnership with the Russian manufacturer Medsintez for the production of pharmaceutical products. In 2015, the first commercial batch of the antibiotic Avelox was produced at Medsintez’s laboratories, Mr Hessmann said.

the goal of increasing the country’s place in the rankings to 50th in 2015 and 20th in 2018. In 2015, new indicators were added, including a new index based on the reliability of electricity supply and transparency of tariffs. “We measure the frequency of power outages, the duration of possible outages, and how the monitoring systems work,” said Ms Saltane.

According to these indicators, Russia received the maximum eight points. As a result, by increasing the pace of work on simplifying the grid connection procedure, Russia made a record leap of 114 positions.

For similar reasons, Russia rose by 37 positions in the index based on the ease of obtaining building permits. Changes in methodology are made each year so that the rankings can more fully reflect the processes taking place in the countries, a press officer for the World Bank’s Moscow office told RBTH.

Right treatment: foreign firms are cashing in by forming partnerships with Russian companies

THE NUMBERS

12 billion pounds – annual turnover of Russian drug companies

24 billion pounds – value of the US drugs market

325 million pounds – price a US company paid for Russia’s Veropharm

Egypt, the most popular holiday destination for Russian tourists, is now out of bounds following a flight ban imposed in the wake of the Metrojet crash on 31 October.

The tourist industry could lose more than £30m, while observers predict a new wave of bankruptcies in the sector.

As tourists are gradually brought home from Egypt, fears are growing that the suspension of flights from Russia to Egypt could have disastrous consequences for the Russian tourism industry.

Russia stopped all flights to Egypt on 6 November amid rising international concern that Metrojet flight 9628 from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg, which crashed 23 minutes after take off with the loss of all 224 on board, was brought down by a terrorist bomb placed in the hold. An official cause for the disaster has still not been established.

The 80,000 Russians still in Egypt are being brought home separately from their luggage, which is being transported by Russian emergencies ministry aircraft.

According to Rosturism (the Russian Federal Tourism Agency), Egypt is the most popular foreign destination for Russian tourists. In 2014, it accounted for 30pc of all trips, or about three million people, said Dmitry Gorin, vice-president of the Russian association of tour operators (Ator).

Financial difficulties Tour operators are already losing money on flights sent to Egypt empty to bring Russian tourists back home. According to Anna Podgornaya from Pegas Touristik and Vladimir Vorobyev, president of Natalie Tours, this means they are losing half the airfare on each empty seat. At an average price of a return of £165, tour operators stand to lose a total of nearly £6.5m.

The situation is made worse by losses caused by cancelled flights. According to Ator, 70,000 holidays in Egypt had been sold for the period before the new year.

At around £530 per person, this will translate into losses of at least £37m.

Other potential costs include advance payments made to Egyptian hotels. After last year’s wave of bankruptcies in the Russian tourism sector, booking deposits were introduced by most hotels, said Ms Podgornaya. Now tour operators will have to reach new deals with their local partners, promising the same level of tourist traffic once flights have resumed.

Following the wave of Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt and across the Middle East in January 2011, the Russian Foreign Ministry advised Russian nationals against travelling to Egypt and flights were suspended for two months. The tourism sector lost more than £130m as a result.

Bankruptcy threat The mass cancellation of trips to Egypt may force many tour operators into bankruptcy, according to Irina Tyurina, press secretary of the Russian Tourist Industry Union. The only options for operators are to offer clients another destination or persuade them to postpone their trip, she said.

Alternative destinations could include Turkey, Cyprus and Asian resort destinations such as Thailand. Between 20pc and 30pc of clients agree to a change of destination, Russia’s deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on 7 November.

Travel agents are also offering flexible deals, suggesting that clients treat payments for holidays planned in Egypt as a deposit for other trips after the new year break.

Customers will be asked to pay the difference if the new holiday is more expensive, but cash will be returned if cheaper, they say.

It is not yet clear for how long the suspension of flights to Egypt will last, but it could be for at least a couple of months, according to officials. Mr Dvorkovich has said that the ban will remain in place for several weeks, until an audit of security measures has been conducted and any necessary adjustments made.

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The battle for Arctic riches hots up Geopolitics As climate change makes the northern region more accessible to bordering countries, Russia is claiming a large share of its vast underwater resources ALEXEI LOSSAN

Russia is renewing its 14-year-old claim to a vast territory on the outer margin of the Arctic continental shelf as the melting ice cap makes the region’s potential wealth more accessible.

Other countries bordering the Arctic could make similar claims.

In August, Russia submitted to the UN a revised application to claim a 1.2 million sq km (463,000 sq miles) underwater territory extending more than 350 nautical miles from the coast, according to an announcement posted on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.“For justifying its claim to this territory, Russia used a large collection of scientific data, accumulated over the course of many years of Arctic research,” the statement said.

The potential economic benefits to Russia of claiming this underwater region are enormous. “The Laptev Sea, as has already been proven, has a diamond canal on the surface of its shelf, which will allow Russia to become even more competitive with other countries in the production of diamonds,” said Vera Smorchkova, professor of labour and social policy at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Ranepa).

The profitable shipping lanes of the Northern Sea Route run through the area, and geological assessments show that the seabed contains almost 30pc of the world’s unexplored natural gas reserves and 15pc of its unexplored oil reserves.

This is not the first time Russia has made such a claim. The country applied to gain possession of a smaller part of territory on the Lomonosov Ridge in 2001, but did not have the required proof that the territory was an extension of the continent and belonged to Russia, Ms Smorchkova said.

The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea allows countries to expand their economic zones outward from the visible coastline, provided that the seabed beyond their bounds is a natural extension of the continental margin. In its application, Russia lays claims to the Lomonosov Ridge, Alpha Ridge and Chukchi Cap, and to the Podvodnik and Chukchi Ocean Basins separating them.

Political implications Alexei Kozlov, chief analyst at UFS Investment Company, said: “The decision to expand the shelf margins is not only of a geographical and economic nature, but it also risks becoming a political issue.”Canada, Norway, Denmark and the United States can also potentially claim Arctic territory.

Ed Royce, Republican chairman of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said that the US should be prepared to stand up to Russia in this matter.“Russia has been aggressively pushing its claims to the Arctic, especially the resource-rich continental shelf. It now has an Arctic Command to strengthen its military presence in the region,” Mr Royce said during hearings on the matter in August.

“The United States and other states bordering the Arctic must maintain a united front against Moscow’s aggressive ambitions toward this vital region,” he said.

Environmental issues Ecologists believe that the political ambitions of all the countries vying for influence in the region threaten its unique habitat and wildlife, and that the region should become a specially protected international zone instead. The region is home to unique species, in particular walruses and polar bears.

New frontier: an Arctic cruise visits Spitsbergen in the Svalbard archipelago

ALAMY/LEGION MEDIA

RBTH

“The melting of Arctic ice opens the broad expanses of the northern seas, making them vulnerable,”saidVladimir Chuprov, head of the energy programme at Greenpeace Russia.

“Millions of people are calling on governments to create an international reserve territory around the North Pole, in order that this water area remains untouched by industry and the nature remains wild.”

Technology gap

MULTIMEDIA

Scan this code for an interactive map detailing the Russian military bases in the Arctic

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He added:“Moreover, there is no economic sense in extracting oil from the Arctic shelf, since there are no technologies for drilling for oil in icy conditions at great depths. Economists and geologists are speaking about this more and more, including those from Russia.”

The press office of the Russian embassy in Washington, DC, said it saw the Arctic as a territory where dialogue and co-operation would bring the best results.“We recognise that all our actions in the region should be regulated within the framework of international law,” the embassy statement said.“Russia consistently opposes the politicisation of international co-operation in the Arctic. Success can be achieved only when the Arctic states are united and act collectively. The future of the region, the implementation of environmental protection measures and the improvement of conditions for residents of the far north shouldn’t depend on extra-regional events.”

No decision soon Russia’s application for its claim to the Arctic territory will not be reviewed in the near future for procedural reasons, but will be included in the provisional agenda of the 40th session of the United Nation Commission in February/March 2016, according to UN spokesman Farhan Haq.

People are calling for an an international reserve territory to be created around the Pole Studies show the seabed has almost 30pc of the world’s unexplored natural gas reserves

Read more about the Russian Arctic in the next issue on 9 December

New ship breaks ice in Arctic co-operation Russian designers are working on a new atomic icebreaker that will make it possible to work in the Arctic yearround. According to the St Petersburg–based Krylov State Research Centre, which is designing the ship, the basic model has already been completed, and the engineering plans are being developed. The new

vessel will be able to break ice more than 12ft thick. In 2015, Russia launched its flagship diesel-electric icebreaker, Ilya Muromets, the first of four. These ships will be used as auxiliary vessels. Russia has 40 icebreakers, the biggest fleet in the world. Its size and sophistication was a key factor in Russia’s inclusion in a

new Arctic Coast Guard, which was announced at the end of October.

The organisation will include vessels from eight Arctic countries. US Coast Guard Commandant Paul Zukunft said: “Russia has the preponderance of the resources when it comes to the Arctic domain. So it’s critical to have them at the table.”

COMMENT

Military bases are needed until a deal on resources is agreed Viktor Litovkin ANALYST

At a recent meeting of the Russian Geographical Society, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that 700 million roubles (£7m) had been spent on a long-term plan to remove Soviet-era scrap metal from the Arctic and that society members had reclaimed 5,000 rusty barrels from region’s islands.

While this work is indeed noteworthy, it isn’t just altruistic. The clean-up is part of the Defence Ministry’s plan to establish a network of military bases on Arctic islands.

There is already a base on Kotelny Island, part of the New Siberian Islands archipelago, and similar bases are planned for Wrangel Island, Mys Shmidta, Chukotka and the Kuril Islands in the far east. It was reported earlier that Russian military bases would be established in Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya.

According to Mr Shoigu, all the bases will be operational by 2018, and a new airfield in Tiksi, one of Russia’s northernmost port cities, is scheduled to open a year later. This airfield, which is located in the permafrost zone, will be designed to handle frontline aircraft, primarily fighter interceptors, as well as to create conditions for the temporary basing of strategic bombers.

Similar airfields are being established on Kotelny Island, on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago and on Alexandra Land, which is part of Franz Josef Land. By the time the project is completed, Russia should have nine updated and reconstructed airfields in the Arctic, most operational by 2017.

So why, after years of neglecting the Arctic, is Russia reestablishing its military presence there? First, the Arctic Ocean is a treasure trove of natural resources. Second, the Northern Sea Route, which, thanks to climate change, is now passable practically

thekompass.co.uk

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year-round, is the shortest and most economically sound route for delivering goods from Asia to Europe. A container ship travelling from Shanghai to Rotterdam via the Arctic takes three weeks, whereas the same trip via the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans requires more than five.

To protect commercial shipping using this route, Russia must increase its number of ships, planes and personnel in the region.

But it is also extremely important for Russia to ensure the safety of its own territory. It is not only commercial vessels that will use this corridor: American nuclear submarines with strategic and cruise missiles on board move under the ice of the North Pole.

Additionally, the path across the Arctic is the only one that will allow Tomahawk missiles to hit Russian missile silos in Siberia. The need to protect the Russian mainland and its military infrastructure is, of course, the reason for these Arctic measures – the missile defence and air defence systems, fighter interceptors on the Arctic islands and the constant patrolling of ocean waters by Russian submarines.

For the Russian strategic nuclear deterrence systems, just as for their US counterparts, the path over the North Pole is the shortest, most reliable and efficient.

Does this military build-up mean that the Arctic will become the latest standoff between Russia and Nato? Not necessarily.

Both sides are quite well aware of the power of the other, and the need to play safe.

For the moment, there will be no heavy artillery and armoured combat vehicles at the Arctic garrisons, and the number of Russian troops posted there will be very small – only up to 150 people per garrison, depending on the location and size. But until agreements are reached on the control of Arctic resources, on the continental shelves and under the ice, the possibility of a confrontation will remain and Russia must be prepared to protect itself.

Viktor Litovkin is a military analyst for Russian news agency Tass and a retired colonel.

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OVERCOME THE CRISIS OF TRUST TO TACKLE THE TERRORISTS

ART OF DIPLOMACY

We need a truly inclusive search for compromise in Syria

Evgeny Krutikov VZ.RU

Vladimir Putin’s decision to suspend air travel with Egypt and evacuate Russian tourists, which was recommended by the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), means a bomb is now the main theory for the cause of the Sinai plane crash. In the new phase of its fight against terrorism, Russia will have to establish ties with potential allies such as the UK. We can continue calling this decision a measure of additional security but on a practical level everything is very simple: in Egypt and in Sharm el-Sheikh in particular, serious security problems have been discovered that led to the deaths of Russian citizens.

The UK was the first to end flights to the resort, followed by Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark. It seems Her Majesty’s Government handed those countries information that convinced them to end their air traffic with Egypt and evacuate their citizens. Of particular interest is Britain and Russia’s decision to evacuate their citizens from Egypt without baggage. This shows which theory about the cause of the crash the security services believe.

London says that the British security services intercepted telephone conversations between terrorists linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil). No one knows what the conversations are about or who is the source. But this information is likely to be reliable.

In recent days the inaccessibility of this information has been frustrating for Moscow.

We are dealing with an investigation into the mass murder of Russian citizens and concealing any useful information on this matter from Russia cannot be described as constructive co-operation in the fight against terrorism.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has urged the British to share what they have learnt. The long phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and David Cameron could indeed have included the“factual”part. On the other hand, the Kremlin press office deemed it necessary to underline that Mr Cameron did not state the exact cause of the plane crash. In turn, American sources say that Moscow could have independently received confirmation of the terrorist theory, while London only gave Moscow circumstantial evidence that would add to the picture of what happened.

This is an issue of mutual trust. Up until the very last moment, the UK and the US preferred not to share any significant information on the situation in the Middle East in general and on Isil in particular with Moscow. This was not because there was a threat

Alexander Yakovenko AMBASSADOR

U

If Mr Cameron gave Mr Putin some additional and useful information, this would be a step towards re-establishing trust

to the source, for example, or the risk of an information channel being exposed but simply out of principle. And all this despite the fact that joint groups exist that were especially created for sharing such information.

If Mr Cameron gave Mr Putin some additional and useful information, this would be an unprecedented step towards re-establishing trust. However, both British and American sources continue to complain publicly that only Russian and Egyptian specialists and investigators have access to “physical information” such as the wreckage and the location of the crash. This is not the case. Because there is an Airbus factory in Toulouse, the French are already part of the investigation and, according to international rules, Egypt has priority over anyone else. But all of this demonstrates the low level of trust among the parties.

Haunted by Lockerbie London has not forgotten Lockerbie, however. On 21 December, 1988, a Boeing 747 flying from London Heathrow to New York exploded over the Scottish town. A total of 270 people died, 11 on the ground. The investigation confirmed that a bomb had been planted among the baggage in the hold.

The Lockerbie tragedy is remarkably similar to the destruction of the Russian plane over the Sinai. The only technical difference

is that in the Boeing 747 the bomb was in the nose section of the fuselage while in the Airbus the bomb was most likely near the tail.

Egypt will perhaps stick to a non-terrorist version of the crash in defiance of the facts.

But it is too late. Now Europe will gradually stop flying to the Red Sea resorts and Egypt’s tourist industry will again collapse. The director of Sharm el-Sheikh airport was unexpectedly promoted. Now he will be responsible for all of the country’s airports, something that will not increase general trust in Egypt.

And his personal security cannot be guaranteed.

Not only has Russia entered a new phase in the fight against terrorism, but it has been forced to take a big step towards the UK (and through the UK towards the majority of our potential allies in the anti-terrorist coalition).

And if the crisis in trust among the allies is overcome, it will create a new environment not only around Syria, but in the Middle East in general.

The author is a political analyst and expert from the Russian Council on International Affairs and a specialist on Afghanistan and Central Asian countries.

First published in Russian on the website of the Vzglyad newspaper

Georgy Bovt INTERNATIONAL ANALYST

A vote for terrorism Friday 13 November 2015 will be considered France’s 9/11. This is what Isil has already declared. International terrorists have demonstrated their ability to carry out a series of simultaneous terrorist attacks in several public places in a large city.

Although France has strict gun control laws, the terrorists not only had explosives, which is usual for such attacks, but Kalashnikov assault rifles, too.

Some people recently pointed fingers at the Egyptian security services for apparently failing to stop a bomb being planted aboard a Russian passenger aircraft in Sharm el-Sheikh. Today, they have to admit that a democratic country with well-equipped and well-trained security services may turn out to be helpless when faced with such a largescale attack. Even the imposition of martial law would not be able to guarantee security.

Terrorist attacks are the price we pay for the fact that the current international system of economic and political relations is sadly not conducive to rooting out terrorism, either in individual countries – most often those that have fallen victim to “the importing of democracy’’– or globally.

Appeals go unheard Now, when the whole world is feeling sympathy and solidarity with the French, we are yet again repeating the appeals to unite in the fight against the global threat of terrorism. How many times have these appeals been heard since 11 September 2001? But where are the results? Al-Qaeda appeared to have been beaten when its leader, Osama bin Laden, was killed.

However, the fact is that the group has

Now it once again turns out that we all live on the front line in the war against terrorism

Except that “the electorate’’ in these countries is increasingly voting more in favour of terror against western civilisation, while at the same time, thousands of volunteers leave western countries to fight for Isil. They fight for a new world order, designed by barbarians and murderers. It is their idea of “justice’’against the backdrop of their rejection of the injustice of modern capitalism and the true “liberty, equality and fraternity” that have never taken hold.

It recently became clear that a large-scale terrorist attack in Europe was imminent.

First, there was the crash of the Russian airliner in Sinai, which many interpreted as revenge for Putin’s adventure in Syria. Then there was the double terrorist attack in a Shia district in Beirut, in which dozens of people were killed. Clearly, terrorists from Isil or similar groups were taking revenge on the Shia group Hezbollah for fighting on Assad’s side in Syria.

Yemen attack lacked impact The international community shuddered but, of course, the impact was not comparable to that of the latest attacks in France. And there was hardly any international reaction when, a day before the Paris attacks, there was an explosion in a Shia mosque in Yemen. Now it once again turns out that we all live on the front line in the war against terrorism.

And if the murderous fanatics who killed at least 129 people in Paris regarded the attacks as revenge for the attacks on Syria (France has recently decided to join the antiterrorism coalition, conducting air strikes against Isil), it does not mean that the UK,

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which for the time being has refrained from joining in the US air strikes, will not be the target of a similar attack.

No doubt, the first reaction that Europeans, and France in particular, will have to the attacks will be to close their borders and frantically tighten security.

Many will recall the recent warnings voiced in connection with the influx of refugees from the Middle East flooding Europe. It was said that there was a suspiciously large number of young, strongly-built, single men among them. They said that there were up to 25,000 Islamic militants among the nearly one million refugees that had arrived in Europe. This threat was also recently cited by the head of the Kremlin administration, Sergey Ivanov.

New joint action needed President Putin recently referred in his address to the UN General Assembly to the instability in the Middle East that had caused the influx of refugees. He asked western leaders: “Do you realise what you have done?”

So 9/11 has happened again. All those who consider themselves part of the civilised world should not only understand where we have gone wrong over the past 15 years in the fight against terror, but also create new forms of joint and co-ordinated action.

Russia and the West need to put all other disagreements aside. This includes Syria and even, however unacceptable some may think it, Ukraine. It was largely the latter that has recently provoked the very same policy of double standards that has prompted many to forget that we share certain values, and that our civilisation is now facing its most serious challenge in modern history.

So far, however, one has to admit that the terrorists are acting in a far more consolidated and systematic manner than the whole of the so-called civilised world.

The author is a political scientist and a member of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a Moscow-based independent think-tank.

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What RBTH readers think about the hot topics. From facebook. com/russiabeyond

Kevin O’Connor on the terrorist attacks in Paris 9/11 has happened again. All those who consider themselves to be a part of the civilised world should not only understand where we have gone wrong over the past 15 years in the fight against terror, but also create new forms of joint and coordinated action.

Russia and the West need to put all other disagreements aside.

"

Sukata Mutsuddi on Nato enlargement This is a really dangerous development. Both the US and Russia should instead focus on fighting terrorism and extremism in a joint manner and not get involved in a confrontation. That will give the extremists an opportunity to flourish and grow even stronger.

"

PARIS ATTACKS: THE LESSONS NOT LEARNT grown newer and even more fanatical and barbaric cells. Stability in the Middle East has been undermined. We already see a whole terrorist quasi-state on the territory where, according to starry-eyed plans, the tyranny of dictators such as Saddam Hussain and Bashar al-Assad should have been replaced by electoral democracy.

VOX POP

Aaron Frost on the Russia doping controversy The whole world of sport has become one of pure drug abuse and doping.

The only difference is how to avoid detection.

"

pon Russia’s insistence, a truly inclusive multilateral process was launched in Vienna on 30 October to help find a compromise solution to the Syrian crisis. Iran, a major player, took part for the first time, as well as China. All agreed to the US, Russia and the UN co-chairing the meeting.

Heated exchanges took place on the issue of President Bashar al-Assad’s future. As was the case three years ago, this could derail the entire process. But ultimately it was agreed to disagree on that issue. Lack of agreement on this subject resulted in three more years of bloody impasse. We should know better than that this time. All the more so that those are the differences between the outside players.

Why not leave it to the Syrians to decide?

A joint statement was adopted by consensus. The middle ground agreed included such major principles of the outside world’s approach to the Syrian settlement as independence, territorial integrity and secular nature of the Syrian state; the preservation of state institutions, protection of the rights of all the Syrians irrespective of ethnicity and religion; humanitarian access and intensification of diplomatic efforts to put an end to the armed conflict.

The extremist approaches failed to win the support of the majority of the participants. The Geneva Communiqué of 30 June 2012, backed by the UN Security Council, will serve as a basis for political process. It means the opposition and the government will have to agree on Syria’s future. Mutual agreement is key to any political settlement as opposed to a military solution and a solution that’s imposed from outside. As the examples of post-war Germany and Japan show, imposed solutions mean a military defeat, a long foreign occupation and a total commitment by major outside powers, including the provision of long-term economic and financial assistance. Short of that, a compromise looks the only viable option.

The second meeting in Vienna, held in the aftermath of the atrocities committed by terrorists in Paris, reflected in its statement a growing sense of unity in the face of this terrorist threat that went global. It is now agreed that the inter-Syrian talks will start under UN auspices by 1 January. The two parties will have to agree an inclusive mechanism of governance, a new constitution and elections. The latter will be prepared under UN control, including help for all the Syrians to take part.

It is envisaged that, with the launch of the political process, a ceasefire will come into force for all of the participants. The current military action will continue to suppress terrorists, who have tried to hijack the cause of the legitimate opposition. Terrorism is the single most important factor that has distorted the Syrian conflict from the beginning, when many had bet on a foreign intervention like that in Libya.

The past four years have provided enough experience for a sober and realistic assessment of the situation by all. This experience, paid for in blood and destruction, human misery on an immense scale and the proliferation of terrorism, should not have been in vain. Like in Egypt, it provided a glimpse of a future based on conquest rather than negotiated solution.

After all, why not trust the wisdom of the silent majority who never outsourced their choice to people making their point with guns?

What is critical now is the compilation of the two lists of the opposition groups to make up a united delegation at the talks with the government and for the terrorist organisations to be proscribed by the UN Security Council.

This is the only way to make something coherent out of the mess that the Syrian situation has degenerated into with all outside players acting at cross purposes.

It is for the Syrians to decide their future.

The most the outside world can do is to come up with a clear-cut common position. That is the promise of the Vienna talks.

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Slipped discs: melodies of the medical X-rays Music British musicians are recreating the Soviet dissident practice of ‘pressing’ banned music on to old radiographic prints ALIIDE NAYLOR SPECIAL TO RBTH

Rays of hope: in Soviet times, young fans beat the censors by listening to banned music recorded on X-ray prints

FROM PERSONAL ARCHIVES

English-speaking audiences as“hipsters”– and the lengths they go to to obtain their jazz music.

It is thought that the roentgenizdat technique emerged in central Europe as early as the Thirties, and was accelerated by the wartime and postwar environment. Many western recording artists, including musical icons such as Al Bowlly, Ella Fitzgerald and Bill Haley, had their music pirated. However, local singer-songwriters also used the practice.

Sound of the underground

X-ray specs

While censored samizdat literature was easily reproduced by hand, music posed a greater challenge. The use of roughly cut X-ray plates – roentgenizdat – peaked in the Forties and Fifties, before technological developments in the post-Stalinist period gave rise to new and better mediums. There was another reason too: by 1958, roentgenizdat had been made illegal in Russia, resulting in distribution networks being broken up and offenders imprisoned.

The practice even inspired the producers of one of Russia’s first post-Soviet musical film, Stilyagi – also known as Boogie Bones in the US – directed by Valery Todorovsky in 2008.

Set in the Fifties, the film focuses on the lives of a group of young music fans – known to

The idea of working with X-rays gripped Mr Kolkowski. He knew of several different recording materials, including, bizarrely, “lacquered cake boxes”. However, recreating the methods has not been easy, with new X-ray materials and techniques hindering the archaic process.“The problem lies with the stock of X-rays I can get hold of now – they’ve changed the composition,” says Mr Kolkowski.

“Back then it had a nitrate or acetate base with a coating on it – around 1960 they changed the base…they started using polyester and that’s much, much tougher… I can’t actually get the same recording quality as I’m mainly using a newer stock of X-rays.”

A key challenge has been the limited supply

of suitable material. Mr Kolkowski says X-rays trickled in“initially through eBay, through auction sites – more recently through contacts in hospitals. I was doing a project in the Netherlands and a university professor there managed to get me a large number.”

PROFILE

Stephen Coates

Rough stuff Messrs Kolkowski and Coates differ on their opinions of the sound quality of the older discs. “I’ve got a bunch of them and the sound quality is pretty bad,” says Mr Coates.

“It’s like listening through sand. Somebody described it as like listening to a tune in one ear, with somebody munching cornflakes in the other.”

However, Mr Kolkowski thinks they are underestimated. The correct equipment is needed; a 78rpm stylus is better for the older records. “Some of them actually sound amazing,”Mr Kolkowski says of the records collected by Mr Coates. “They rarely survived… the problem was at the time, the steel needles they commonly used for playing them would quickly wear them out.”

The records were cut by hand – and not very neatly. Stories suggest that the holes in the middle were made with a lit cigarette. “It’s a

FROM PERSONAL ARCHIVES

Two Britons, composer and musician Stephen Coates and musician and vintage recording specialist Aleks Kolkowski have a passion for authentic Soviet sounds. Later this year, Mr Coates plans to release a book via Strange Attractor Press and an album with a twist: a collection of his own songs, each one printed on an X-ray of a different body part (made the same way as a vinyl record), which will together compose a whole human skeleton.

Traditionally a buccaneer’s symbol, skulland-bones images lend themselves to this unique form of music piracy. The idea emerged in the repressive atmosphere of the Soviet Union, where enthusiasts traded banned and rare genres recorded on to discarded X-ray prints. Censorship fostered an unofficial culture, where writers, artists and musicians forged channels to distribute their own and forbidden foreign music, mostly rock ’n’ roll and jazz.

The composer and music producer learnt about X-ray recordings when performing in Russia with his group, The Real Tuesday Weld.

A graduate of the Royal College of Art, he is fascinated by the interaction between music and culture.

Capital treat for culture fans returns Exhibitions From avant-garde pioneers to nature painters, event-packed Russian Art Week caters for all cultural tastes THEODORA CLARKE SPECIAL TO RBTH

Russian Art Week is back. The creative showcase is in London from 27 November to 4 December, with art sales at the capital’s major auction houses accompanied by cultural events, including exhibitions, talks, opera and ballet.

The Russian sales in November promise a diverse selection of works of art and decorative objects. Highlights at Bonhams include the oil-on-canvas Romantic Encounter by Pavel Svedomsky and silver objects, including a gem-set silver-gilt and cloisonné enamel presentation kovsh (traditional drinking vessel) from a Moscow collection. There’s also a silver-gilt presentation cup and cover by Khlebnikov.

Christie’s has a range of paintings and decorative art, including The Cloud (1961), a summer landscape by Vasily Shukhaev, and another scene with an unusual composition

by Vasily Sitnikov, Self-portrait with Crows by the Kremlin (1970). The sale will also offer an important Fabergé group, including a striking mantel clock and rare porcelain figures by the Imperial Porcelain Factory.

One of my auction highlights is the Lefebvre-Foinet collection of more than 200 works on paper by Natalia Goncharova. To be auctioned by Sotheby’s, it is the largest

Flying high: Vasily Sitnikov’s unusual composition Self-portrait with Crows by the Kremlin (1970) will be sold at Christie’s

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single-owner collection of this highly acclaimed painter, a pioneering modernist of the early 20th century. The works give an overview of her career as a key figure of the Russian avant-garde. Among the highlights are Goncharova’s ground-breaking set and costume designs for Diaghilev’s ballets, her work for French fashion house Myrbor and interior design projects and studies for paintings – plus sketches by Mikhail Larionov. Other highlights include Winter in Abramtsevo (1886) by Valentin Serov and Ramayana (1931) by Boris Grigoriev.

MacDougall’s sale highlights are

depictions of Russian nature by masters, including Forest Meadow and High Water by Isaac Levitan and Forest Clearing by Ivan Shishkin. Both are popular in Russia; their best works are classics of Russian landscape painting. Shishkin has a keen following in his home country and is famed as the creator of the well-loved painting Morning in a Pine Forest, featuring a party of bears. I expect both of these pictures to attract serious bids from top Russian collectors.

Alongside the sales, leading London galleries will also be presenting the work of living Russian artists, illustrating the

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cool image isn’t it?” Mr Kolkowski continues.

“Cut a record, have a cigarette, and then just ‘tsss’ – seal it with a fag.”

Artistic sacrifice Mr Coates has spent the past eight years in and out of Russia, where he met Rudolf Fuchs, a collector who was imprisoned in Soviet times for his role in the records’ creation and distribution. It was Mr Fuchs who helped Russian singer Arkady Severny in the late Sixties, recording an album after the ban, which no doubt bolstered Severny’s carefully constructed“prison singer”image.

Myth and reality soon converged. “What I found moving is that Rudi went to prison… or Boris Taigin [one of the first samizdat poets] went to prison… and came out of prison and immediately started doing it again,”Mr Coates says. “If I had spent two or three years in a prison camp near St Petersburg – doubtlessly in freezing cold conditions – the last thing I’d do when I came out is immediately start doing what I went in for.”

Soviet singers were doing that again and again. Neither technical troubles nor bans could stop them. Today, two British artists pay homage to their courage through this project.

diversity of contemporary art in Moscow.

Another highlight is the Peripheral Visions exhibition at GRAD gallery, which showcases works by Olga Chernysheva, who documents the everyday in a variety of media. Mayfair’s Erarta Contemporary Art Gallery London, in collaboration with well-known Russian dealer Maxim Boxer, will present Russian Landscape, the first UK retrospective of Moscow conceptualist Sergey Shutov. Over at Pushkin House, visitors can see cartoons by Alexei Merinov.

The lectures include Professor John Bowlt of the University of Southern California on the origins of the Russian avant-garde. At GRAD gallery, dealer James Butterwick will take part in a panel discussion on the challenges of fakes and forgeries in Russian art, and Gallery Elena Shchukina will host Gregoire Aslanoff’s lecture in Russian on Marc Chagall. In addition, the Courtauld Institute of Art will host a screening of The Gospel Cycle of Vasily Polenov followed by an academic round-table discussion.

Coinciding with Russian Art Week is an exceptional exhibition at the Science Museum – Cosmonauts: Birth of the Space Age. The show explores Russian space travel, bringing together unique objects, including space suits, capsules and moon rovers that have never before left Russia.

Finally, there is much to enjoy for fans of Russian classical music and literature. In December, the Royal Opera House will stage Tchaikovsky’s Eugene Onegin, conducted by Semyon Bychkov and featuring Dmitry Hvorostovsky. Pushkin enthusiasts can enjoy a special evening of poetry and performance organised by the Royal Opera House with excerpts from Rachmaninoff’s repertoire.

Theodora Clarke is the editor of Russian Art and Culture and director of the Russian Art Week in London.

Feature P8_Tuesday 17 November 2015_www.rbth.co.uk_THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA

From dancing queen to cultural icon Ballet Maya Plisetskaya, whose unique talent shone in ballet, film and fashion, was born 90 years ago this week

IN HER OWN WORDS

"

I thought and still think Swan Lake was the ultimate test for any ballerina. You cannot hide anything.

Every time after dancing Swan Lake I would feel devastated, turned inside out. My forces would only slowly return, two or three days later.

Sometimes performances were flawless; at other times there were mistakes. But my principles and innovations caught on and became established.

The Plisetskaya style – you could call it – went worldwide.

That way of drooping hands, holding the elbows elegantly, head thrown back, the fixed poses – these could be seen on television screens everywhere.

ANNA GALAYDA SPECIAL TO RBTH

A talent that seemed impossible to contain even during the grim days of the Cold War and the Iron Curtain lives on, uniting countries and continents to this day. A model for dancers starring in Swan Lake or Don Quixote, May Plisetskaya is recognised globally as the paragon of Russian ballet. Thanks to her, Maurice Béjart and Roland Petit were able to bring their ballets to Russia. But even if she was half a century ahead of her time, Plisetskaya was not simply a ballerina – she was a woman of oustanding personality, a star attracting the most remarkable people of the day to her orbit.

The stage – even one as grand as that of the the Bolshoi – was not enough for her.

Maya Plisetskaya, who was born on 20 November 1915 and died in Munich in May this year aged 89, displayed her artistic skill early.

She recalls as a small child being enticed from home by the sound of a waltz from Léo Delibes’ ballet Coppélia playing from a public loudspeaker. She began swirling in the middle of the street, oblivious to everything around her. Her mother (a silent-film star and member of one of Moscow’s most prominent stage families) was quickly surrounded by a crowd of captivated onlookers.

Plisetskaya’s aunt, Bolshoi star Sulamith Messerer, gave Maya her first ballet lessons and choreographed her first production of The Dying Swan when she was seven. Even then, Messerer praised the girl’s incredibly flexible arms and huge, dazzling dark eyes. She also became a surrogate parent for the young Maya following the purging and execution of her father in 1938 and the incarceration of her mother in a labour camp.

Plisetskaya captured the imagination of film directors and actors, too. Her Betsy Tverskaya, as performed in the Soviet classic film Anna Karenina by Aleksandr Zarkhi, was a masterpiece of acting, rivalling her ballet roles in emotional expressiveness. She also played Belgian singer Désirée Artôt in Tchaikovsky (1969) and the muse of Lithuanian painter Mikalojus Ciurlionis in Zodiac of MK Ciurlionis by Jonas Vaitkus. She also gave the Russian stage director Anatoly Efros the idea to adapt Turgenev’s Torrents of Spring as a TV play.

Italian screen legend Marcello Mastroianni once burst in on her backstage after a performance of Swan Lake to declare tearfully:“Actors are so poor – all we have are our facial expressions and gestures. But you, Maya, you use your whole body to act.”

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The ballerina’s own literary talent was considerable.

She wrote two bestselling books

Galloping through life The Swan – just like Carmen later – became a Maya Plisetskaya trademark. The iconic char-

MOSKVARIUM Eighty huge aquariums represent almost an entire ocean of marine fauna.

Come face-toface with the most dangerous and intriguing inhabitants of the darkest depths – the fascinating denizens of the deep include killer whales, beluga whales, dolphins, walruses and sea lions.

The food of love Unlike many ballet dancers, Plisetskaya always had a good standing with poets, writers, artists and musicians, even when she was quite young. “Today I was at Lilya Brik’s [muse of the poet Vladimir Mayakovsky]. They invited Gérard Philipe with his wife and Georges Sadoul over. Everyone was very nice and friendly. The couple regretted they had not had an opportunity to see me perform, but I ‘comforted’ them by giving them my photos with dedications (the photos were quite bad since I didn’t have any good ones). There were no other guests (just Shchedrin,the composer),” the ballerina wrote in 1955, describing an evening at Brik’s when Rodion Shchedrin, her future husband, played his music on a Bechstein piano.

The composer himself wrote: “I heard a recording of Plisetskaya singing the music from Prokofiev’s ballet Cinderella, and I was fascinated, primarily because she was a ballerina who had a perfect ear – she reproduced all of the melodies and even the supporting harmonies perfectly in the original key, and for the record, Prokofiev’s music could be quite difficult to follow at the time.” it took them three years to fall in love. The ballets Shchedrin wrote for her – including Anna Karenina, The Seagull, and The Lady with the Lapdog, all of which were not just about their respective characters but about Plisetskaya as well – became an integral part of her repertoire.

The queen of style

Portraits of an artist Maya Plisetskaya was a favourite with portrait artists, drawn to her expressiveness, the soft curve of her neck and her long, evocative arms.

She once modelled for Marc Chagall, spinning in front of him barefoot to Mendelsohn. Later, she recognised herself in a mural Chagall created for the Metropolitan Opera House in New York.“This was most certainly me – hip curved, body tilted, all taut as a string,” she wrote.

The Dying Swan as performed by Plisetskaya was immortalised in figurines by Soviet sculptor Elena Yanson-Manizer, who drew inspiration from the dancer’s performances for many years, as well as mosaics by Nadia Léger, and graffiti by Italian artist Eduardo Kobra – one of his works even adorns a house not far from the Bolshoi Theatre, in a small park recently named after her.

fend people without thinking, without any reason. And later, I felt remorse… Or maybe that I combined the opposites, that I could be both wasteful and greedy, both brave and cowardly, both a queen and a shy little girl? Or that I had a collection of funny surnames, gathering clippings with those from all the print media I could find? That I was as stupidly gullible as I was stupidly impatient – I have never been capable of waiting… I was blunt and impulsive…

So, is this just nonsense, small stuff? Or does this small stuff complement my persona?”

acter of a strong and fearless bird – proud, lonely and resilient – inspired not only artists, but also poets, with endless lines, extraordinary and amateur alike, dedicated to it.

The ballerina’s own literary talent was considerable. She wrote two bestselling books, I, Maya Plisetskaya and Thirteen Years Later.

An extract gives a flavour of her engaging style: “I am galloping through my life, through my whole hectic life. It becomes increasingly clear that it will be impossible for me to fully describe my experiences. There are only fragments. Blurred silhouettes. Shadows… Did it

really happen? Yes, it did… Premieres, flowers, struggles, alarums and excursions, disappointments, outbursts, encounters, parties, luggage bags, and everyday battles…

“What would you like to know about me, my dear reader? Is it the fact that I am lefthanded and do everything with my left hand?

That I only use my right hand to write, and can only write with my left hand in the opposite direction, in an inverted manner?

“Or is it the fact that I have always been confrontational? That I used to look for trouble, often to no particular purpose? I could of-

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Plisetskaya managed to be stunningly flamboyant. She was the first Soviet ballerina to come back from an international tour with elastic leotards and bags full of luxury fabrics for tutus. During her stay in Paris, she was acquainted with the latest fashion trends by writer Elsa Triolet, the wife of Louis Aragon and Lilya Brik’s sister. Coco Chanel once invited her to her fashion house and offered her any outfit from her latest collection.Yves Saint Laurent and Jean Paul Gaultier designed dresses for her. In the Sixties, she donned furs and jewels to model for fashion photographers including Richard Avedon and Cecil Beaton.

At the 1971 Avignon Festival, Nadia Léger introduced Plisetskaya to Pierre Cardin.“I saw her in Carmen, and I fell in love with her,” the fashion designer later said. The ballerina became Cardin’s muse for years to come. He created more than 30 dresses specifically for her, asking nothing in return but a friendly disposition. And she stayed loyal to him, impressing the public with his remarkable dresses with trains. “It’s not like I am too faithful, it’s just that he is a genius. Cardin was the one to create my outfits for stage and film – and these were truly gifts fit for a queen!” she said.

These fabulous outfits are now in Moscow’s Bakhrushin Museum. In 1998, Maya Plisetskaya and Pierre Cardin presented a joint show called Fashion and Dance in the Kremlin.

As for Soviet designers, Plisetskaya collaborated with Slava Zaitsev – she selected him to create outfits for Anna Karenina. The designer recalled: “More than 20 sketches were made in total. Maya liked many of them, but Shchedrin had doubts about them. The argument eventually reached the minister of culture, Yekaterina Furtseva, and she demanded that I agree to a compromise. I didn’t. Pierre Cardin was hired to work on the ballet.”

EXPERIMENTANIUM The young scientist will find endless fascination at the Experimentanium (age 7 and over), an attraction where children are allowed to not only view, but touch and participate in the various experiments.

GORKY PARK In addition to hosting the Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, the park in the winter is home to one of Moscow’s largest open-air skating rinks, complete with a special space for children.

Krymsky Val Street, 9

MOSCOW LIGHTS MUSEUM Make sure to pre-register for this interactive tour, which can be played in various languages.

Here you will learn how to ignite kindling, a candle lantern and a kerosene lamp (age 6 and over).

Leningradsky Prospect, 80, Building 11

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Armyansky Lane, 3-5, Building 1

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ognimos.ru (in Russian)

MEMORIAL MUSEUM OF COSMONAUTICS Budding young astronauts (ages 4 and up) will be delighted by the museum, with its genuine ‘Mission Control Centre.’ There is a rescue helicopter simulator as well as the main attraction – a spacep flight simulation mul u atio ion thatt will wilil make you feel u fee eel lilike ee ike you aare r re flying to the the moon! m on mo o !

Prospect Mira 119, Building 23 moskvarium.ru/en

PLANETARIUM The ever-alluring starry sky will appear before you in all its glory on Europe’s largest dome screen. Curious young visitors (age 4 and over) will be able to observe tools for exploring the universe, from antiquity to today. Touch the secrets of astronomy and carry out celestial experiments!

Sadovaya-Kudrinskaya Street 5, Building 1 planetarium-moscow.ru/en

Prospect P Pr ospe p ct Mira, M a 111 kosmo-museum.ru?locale=en kosmoo mu useum.r seum ru? u?llo ocale=e ca a = n

MOSCOW ZOO One of the oldest zoos in Europe, Moscow was opened in 1864. Today, y, it houses more than 8,000 different animals alls from around the world d in a large park setting.

E N .T R AV E L 2 M O S C O W. C O M

Bolshaya Gruzinskaya Street, 1 moscowzoo.su

This announcement was produced by the Department for Multicultural Policy, Interregional Cooperation and Tourism of Moscow