Junior Project Prize - 2022/23

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Artificial Intelligence The Welfare State has also been criticised for being unable to deal with changes, such as the threat of automation. The increasing development of AI provides a number of threats, the main one being the economic impact. This differs from the previously-discussed economic impact of the welfare state as, rather than people preferring to stay in benefits than finding a job, there is a chance that there simply will be no jobs and therefore possible mass unemployment. The number of jobs which shall be displaced by AI varies, but some think that it could be at least a billion. Moreover, research has predicted that 375 million jobs could become obsolete altogether. Although most believe that the future will not be as dystopian, some specific data still suggests that the job loss will amalgamate to 85 million jobs globally by 2025 (8). According to Andy Stern, former head of the US Service Employees International Union (SEIU), this would be driven by the ethos of shareholder value as, in the upcoming years, AI will be cheaper to maintain and to use. Stern’s opinion is that this will not be like ‘the fall of the auto and steel industries. That hit just a sector of the country. This will be widespread. People will realise that we don’t have a storm anymore. We have a tsunami’ (Standing, 2017). The obvious underlying consequence of mass unemployment will be people not being able to pay for rent amongst other things, but there are other significant consequences of mass unemployment. For example, an increased inequality gap- Britain being a suitable example. Since the 1980’s, an inequality in wealth and therefore unemployment has arisen- research has shown that in some areas in the North it is 200 times as difficult to find a job than in the South (9), with the north-east of England having the highest unemployment rate in the whole of England with 5.5%. This high level of unemployment will be increased with the rise in automation too. AI will first replace dangerous jobs such as farming which is omnipresent in the North of England especially. Therefore, as well as causing mass unemployment, large political issues could arise from Artificial Intelligence also. UBI could be a solution to this problem as it could be a way in which all would benefit from economic gains resulting from technological advance. This is because Universal Basic Income would provide people with the extra income to meet their needs. Moreover, as shall be discussed in more detail later, the greatest issue with UBI is its affordability and studies have shown that large AI companies would generate enough wealth to pay every citizen in the US a UBI of $13500 (10). However, although this issue would be solved, the other issue of who will take the remaining jobs and who will walk with free money arises. Although the answer to this question is uncertain, one can definitely be sure that everyone will want the spare jobs and, because these will be highly technical, they will require people to have a great education, with a large possibility of the working class ultimately losing out. UBI would be able to provide this as the extra income would not only give people the opportunity to stay at school longer but also to travel further if needs be. Therefore, UBI would be able to decrease the effect of mass unemployment caused by AI and, by developing the education sector, ultimately end up with a higher-quality work force. The key disadvantage to the welfare state in this issue is that, if people lose jobs, it cannot provide them with the necessary income. On the other hand, let’s look at the short-term possible consequences, assuming that the rise of Artifical Intelligence does not lead to a ‘workless future’. As previously discussed, AI is not expected to make human workers obsolete by at least 2045 because, for example, AI often requires an amount of ‘learning’ and therefore large amounts of data. The cost of electricity to power one supercharged language AI model was estimated at $4.6 million (11). Moreover, some

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