Qeg market trends 20141103

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The following trend observations and trading set-ups are driven by QEG's proprietary trend following software (QuantAction) and systematic processes and presented as our real-time market views and trading activity rather than specific investment advice. See qegmarkettrends.com for full disclaimers and details on our program and systems.

November 3, 2014 Summary: 

US indices cleared levels that open up further upside, so we can start to shift to a less defensive stance as trades set up. Since markets moved strongly very quickly they are overbought at the moment so we expect to see some shake out behaviour near term, but there is strong support below so we will be looking for relative strength during such volatility for attractive trade set ups.



The TSX has been weighed down by commodities which we continue to avoid but it too cleared its nearby trading reference range so there are opportunities in non-commodity sectors for long trades setting up.

New trade signal: 

Cineplex (CGX) recently triggered an uptrend continuation signal in the QuantAction program followed by a consolidation breakout pattern. Be aware earnings are coming out November 13 so there is above average risk of volatility around that event.


Live trades:

Equity Market Tone US Index Roadmaps: BREAKING OUT: The major indices closed the week and month on strength with the SPX and Dow at new highs with the Dow Transports following the industrials. The move was quick and created overbought conditions so there is reason to expect some near term volatility perhaps in the form of ‘shakeout’ behaviour (short retracements to common stop loss levels), but the bottom line is that these breakouts are bullish so this is likely the beginning of a new leg higher. To reiterate there is near term risk of volatility, but if we do see indices pull back we will be looking for relative strength in trade set-ups to enter ahead of another leg higher.

Live Nasdaq 100/NQ Futures (daily, Dec.): Nasdaq 100 futures held a normal test at the top of its prior congestion band and broke out. They are pausing today and could easily check back from overbought conditions but the set-up is bullish.


Live S&P500/ES Futures (daily, Dec.): Congestion resistance should now act as strong support if we get an overbought pullback.

S&P 500 Spot Index (weekly): The move was so fast we would not be surprised to see a check back, but we would not consider it a failed breakout unless it broke these trend lines again.


US 10-year Yield: After closing the gap ~2.30 we expect the benchmark yield to see a near term range of 2.30~2.45. A break back below 2.30 would indicate a return of caution.

TSX Roadmap TSX daily: The TSX closed the week above the upper end of its nearby reference range high ~14600 after failing earlier. This is a bullish set up so we expect it to move higher from here.


Commodity Roadmaps Oil BREAKDOWN ALERT: After another failed recovery attempt WTI futures continue to test the lower level of this bearish pattern which puts the odds in favour of a breakdown below 80. We continue to avoid oils here. Live WTI Oil futures (Dec. daily): There have been signs of positive behaviour but forces of supply appear strongest as oil remains in a bearish pattern.

Gold POSSIBLE SNAPBACK BUT DOWNTREND PERSISTS: After failing at the 1225 pivot we considered the first stage recovery attempt to have ended and gold broke down further to new lows following. There is a potential swing trade set up above 1150, but these are short term in nature so they do not fit our trend-following approach (and the primary trend remains down here). Live Gold Futures (Dec. daily): 1225 pivot break ended the recovery process and sent gold back to a test and break of its cycle lows.


David Beasley, CFA, CMT Quantitative and Technical Analyst QEG MARKET TRENDS INC. Twitter: @qegmarkettrends This communication is derived from the output of a quantitative and technical model ('QuantAction' and the 'QEG Trading System'). The model sources data from third party providers that we do not guarantee with respect to accuracy, completeness or in any other way. Any trade set-ups produced by the model or otherwise and reproduced here are for information purposes and not intended as specific investment advice by QEG Market Trends Inc. or QEG Advisors Inc. and its directors. This material has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it as to accuracy, completeness, or in any other way. This material is not a complete analysis of all material facts with respect to any market, sector or security. Quantitative and technical analysis and strategy is fluid by nature and such views may change as market conditions change. For these reasons this commentary is not a sufficient basis alone on which to form an investment decision and is not intended to be considered as specific investment advice. QEG Market Trends Inc. and/or its directors may hold shares or derivatives in any market mentioned here or in any attachments hereto and may buy or sell such securities. Commodity and index futures charting sourced from IB. ŠQEG Market Trends Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. If you wish to unsubscribe to this distribution list please reply with 'unsubscribe' in the subject line.


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