6 5 Steps to Achieving the Best Mortgage Lending Results Dan Green
EVP Strategy, Prime Alliance
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What’s Your Outlook?
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We’re Bullish
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Five Reasons for Optimism
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[1] Rates Historically Low 30 - Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (MORTG) 20
(Percent)
15
10
5
1970
1980
1990
2000
Shaded areas indicate US recessions as determined by the NBER. 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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2010
[2] Home Prices Historically Low, Too
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[3] Congress Passes Stimulus
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[4] CU Opportunity Enormous
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[5] CUs Safe, Trustworthy
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Economic Forecast Highlights Indicator
QI 09
QII 09
QIII 09
QIV 09
GDP
-4.1
-0.1
1.5
2.5
Residential Investment
-31.9
-18.6
-0.1
15.7
Consumer Prices
-3.2
1.2
1.3
0.9
Unemployment
7.50%
8.10%
8.40%
8.70%
Mortgage Forecast, 2009 Indicator
QI 09
QII 09
QIII 09
QIV 09
10 Year T-Bond
2.50%
2.70%
2.90%
3.10%
30 Year FRM
5.20%
5.00%
5.10%
5.20%
Mortgage Originations in billions
$378
$552
$541
$463
Median Home Price, existing homes
$183.90 $199.00 $195.80 $184.70
Mortgage Forecast, 2007 - 2010 Indicator
2007
2008
2009
2010
30 Year FRM
6.30%
6.00%
5.10%
5.30%
Mortgage Originations in trillions
$2.30
$1.77
$1.93
$1.89
Median Home Price, existing homes
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$219.00 $197.70 $190.80 $194.60
Why Mortgages?
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Member Relationships
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Home Loans are Profitable
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Mortgage Programs Under Scrutiny “by credit unions”
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[1] Promote
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Three Kinds of Advertising
Unknown Unknown Save & Borrow at your CU
We don’t know who they are, we don’t know what they want © 2000 - 2009 Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Three Kinds of Advertising
Known Unknown Place CU Logo Here
A Better Way to Buy and Sell a Home
Let us help you realize the dream of home ownership and/or selling your existing home. > Cash Back Program > Dedicated Member Advocates > Credit Union Certified Real Estate Agent* > Homebuyer Privileges Package®
Let us help you realize the dream of home ownership and/or selling your existing home. Call CU Name for more details at 000.000.0000
*Real Estate Brokerage services provided by carefully selected local broker.
We know who they are, we don’t know what they want © 2000 - 2009 Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Three Kinds of Advertising
Known Known
We know who they are, we know what they want Š 2000 - 2009 Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
[2] Shuffle the Deck
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(3)
Is the Price Right?
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Pricing Theory Secondary Market Price
{
Revenue •Sales Premiums •Warehouse Spread •Servicing Value •Points •Fees
Costs •Cost to Originate •Sales Discount •Hedge Cost •LLPA
Net Income / (Loss)
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}
Pricing Practice
Part I - Revenue
Note Rate is 5.625%
Market Pricing
+ Sales Premium: 99.1593 - 100.0 =-0.841
+ Warehouse Spread =
.06678
+ Servicing Value =
1.25
+ Points =
0.00
+ Fees =
Total Revenue =
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1.00
1.476
(Note Rate – Cost of funds) X 15 days 365
Retention Cross sell Fees Prepaid Float Escrow Float P&I Float Base Servicing
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What Constitutes the Servicing Value?
Pricing Practice
Part II - Expense
Cost to Originate =
0.75
Sales Discount =
0.00
Hedge Cost =
0.12
Loan Level Price Adjustments =
0.25
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Total Revenue =
1.476
Net Expense =
1.120
Net Revenue =
0.356
Cost to Originate?
Hedge Cost?
What Can We Affect?
LLPAs? Sales Discounts?
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Mortgage Lending is Profitable
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Interest paid, first five years: > $52,800
Present Value of Interest Paid: > $14,500
Putting Members in Homes: Priceless CU Housing RoundTable
Š
Credit Unions Building Community
Founded by: BECU, Callahan Associates and Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc.
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Interest paid, first five years: > $2,400
Present Value of Interest Paid: >
$957
Putting Members in Cars: Ordinary CU Housing RoundTable
Š
Credit Unions Building Community
Founded by: BECU, Callahan Associates and Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc.
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[4] More Matter, with Less Art
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback Low, Fixed Rates
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback Low, Fixed Rates No Gotchas
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback Low, Fixed Rates No Gotchas Simple Origination
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback Low, Fixed Rates No Gotchas Simple Origination Low Down Payment
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[5] FHA Makes a Comeback Low, Fixed Rates No Gotchas Simple Origination Low Down Payment Easier Qualification
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[6] Paperless Lending?
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Powerfully Green Paper manufacturing emits the 4TH HIGHEST LEVEL OF CARBON DIOXIDE of all manufacturers. It also consumes 390 GALLONS OF OIL PER TON OF PAPER. The MORTGAGE INDUSTRY has a large CARBON FOOTPRINT due to our reliance on PAPER. How large is our FOOTPRINT? We use between 21,750 and 36,250 TONS of PAPER per year. The STATUE OF LIBERTY weighs just 24,634 TONS. Our PAPER usage CONSUMES between 200,000 and 340,000 BARRELS of OIL. We take a toll on TREES, too: between 370,000 and 620,000 are chopped down annually to fulfill our needs. It takes 17 TREES to produce a ton of PAPER. Š 2000 - 2009 Prime Alliance Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
CU Housing RoundTable
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