Policy Brief
Cost Benefit Analysis of Flood Warning: Limitation, Challenge and Prospect
Policy Brief Cost Benefit Analysis of Flood Warning: Limitation, Challenge and Prospect Published by Practical Action Bangladesh H-28/A, R-5, Dhanmondi, Dhaka-1205 T: +88 02 9672683, 9672236, 9675243 F: +88 02 9674340 Published in February 2018 Copyleft Contents of this document can be used without prior approval but subject to acknowledgement
The fallout of climate change is no longer a new phenomenon to the human race. Many a nation, irrespective of wealth, power and influence, have already witnessed the onslaught of natural disasters. Disaster risk reduction, hence, has long been being at the centre of policy dialogue in the global sphere. The United Nations has come up with multifaceted charters to comprehensively address the crisis of climate change. The Sendai Framework is the latest addition to that endeavor. In a bid to reduce the disaster risk, the Sendai Framework has given high priority to the issue of easy access to warning system and also its easy intelligibility by the people of the community at risk. With many other nations, Bangladesh has ratified the Sendai Framework. To reinforce its commitment, Bangladesh government has already developed multiple warning systems for different types of disasters including flood warning. Few other warning systems are at piloting phase. Bangladesh, for its precarious geographical location, faces flood almost every year. The flood warning system was expected to be significantly effective for reducing the loss from the hydrological disaster. However, the system could not yield result at expected level. An analysis on the effectiveness of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) reveals that an input of 1 Euro reduces a loss of 400 Euro.
Existing Flood Warning and Gaps Set up by the government in 1972, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) has been providing flood forecasts on 72 hours, weekly, fortnightly and monthly basis. As part of the process, the FFWC generates and disseminates daily statistical bulletin of river situation, a descriptive flood bulletin, and forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours. Besides, it analyses the satellite images of the water level of the rivers and also the water level at 90 points of the major rivers across the country based on the satellite images and develop forecast bulletin. It also develops Upazila-wise status Map of flood situation, during the monsoon season. FFWC also generates warning messages and shares it with the Prime Minister’s Office, all relevant Ministries, Disaster Management Bureau, and also the mass media on a daily basis from where the early warning messages are passed to the Upazila Nirbahi Officer’s office. Besides, the FFWC uploads the flood forecast report with map on the designated website (www.ffwc.gov.bd.net) on a daily basis. The Upazila Disaster Management Committee, based in the office of Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO), is responsible for dissemination of the flood warning among the community people at risk. And, Project Implementation Officer (PIO) disseminates the warning messages to the Union Disaster Management Committee. A major problem is that the Project Implementation Officer (PIO) has multiple responsibilities including the assignment of disseminating flood warning message. To perform the task of warning message dissemination, the PIO is not adequately equipped as well.
Practical Action conducted a study on ‘Cost Benefit Analysis of Flood Warning’ recently. The study did not find any record of flood warning dissemination by the PIO in any of the four surveyed Upazilas under Kurigram and Sirajganj. The warning messages currently produced by the FFWC are not intelligible enough for the mass people to understand easily. Example of such a warning message is: “Water level of River Jamuna has increased by 4 cm and is currently flowing 20 cm below the danger point. It stands a change of increasing 10 cm further.” Such warning message barely carries due meaning to the community as the rural people are not at all familiar with the measurement unit of centimeter or millimeter. Besides, the mass people, often even educated person, cannot draw the relationship between increase or decrease in water level and the possibility of inundation in the local community. The FFWC usually transmits warning message of rise or fall in the water level of the rivers. However, it does not adequately explain the potential extent of danger the vulnerable community may face. As a result, acceptability of these messages to the target community is very low.
Flood Warning by DDM through IVR (Interactive Voice Response) The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) disseminates flood warning message through mobile phone in the form of `Interactive Voice Response’ (IVR). Accessible from any mobile operators by dialing 10941, the IVR-based early warning messages disseminate five hazard-related information i.e. weather forecast, rainfall, cyclone, flood and landslide. The major limitation of the IVR system is that it has a limit of receiving 600 calls at a time. Besides, the disaster warning dissemination system of DDM using IVR method is not widespread in the flood-prone area. The study found that the chairmen of Jatrapur union under Sadar upazila and Rajapur union under Belkuchi upazila are not aware about the 10941 helpline.
Flood Warning by Practical Action Bangladesh through Voice SMS Under its two-year project entitled V2R, Practical Action Bangladesh, has been disseminating flood warning messages and also information related to agricultural cultivation among around 15,000 smallholder and marginalized farmers at 15 unions under four sub-districts in Sirajganj and Bogra. The mobile-phone based Voice SMS is disseminated through software. Keeping the literacy level and local dialect of the community into consideration, Practical Action develops the message in a way which is simple in articulation and easily intelligible. In addition to disseminating flood warning, the project transmits warning message with forecast of early precipitation, excessive rainfall, hailstorm and cold-wave among local farmers through SMS. The project has also developed a group of 6-7 volunteers who disseminates the flood warning messages through hand mike and also using mikes of the local mosques.
Coverage of Flood Warning Message The study entitled Cost Benefit of Flood Warning, which followed number and multiple approach, has been conducted at four union under four sub-districts in Sirajganj and Bogra. Around 56 percent of the study sample are the direct beneficiaries of the V2R project who received flood warning from the television (in the local market and shops). On the other hand, 88 percent of the study participants in Kurigram, who are not the beneficiaries of the project, received the warning message through the Television (in the local market and shops). The study also found that respectively 88 percent and 0 percent of the participants in Sirajganj and Kurigram received flood warning message over the cell phone-based SMS. A significant finding of the study is that the number of project beneficiaries (52%) in Sirajganj, who relocated the valuables to the safety after receiving the SMS, is largely higher than that (29%) of Kurigram. Also, the percentage of population surveyed in Sirajganj who managed to protect their education materials was 98 compared to that of 42 in Kurigram. The survey also found that the percentage of surveyed population who managed to protect their valuables from flood was significantly high (98%) in Sirajganj compared to that (31%) of the population in Kurigram.
in Sirajganj 88% participants received flood warning message participants relocated 52% the valuables to the safety managed to protect 98% participants their valuables from flood
Expected Source of Flood Warning information A total of 59 percent of the respondents from each two districts (40% in Sirajganj and 78% in Kurigram) consider disseminating flood warning messages through miking is effective. With regard to the frequency of warning message dissemination 24 hours prior to flood, all the participants opined that it will not be effective. The study found that 62 and 90 percent of the respondents respectively in Sirajganj and Kurigram opined that flood warning will be effective if it is broadcasted seven days prior to flood. The study findings revealed that the beneficiary families those received flood warning message in Sirajganj have managed to make a savings of additional 55,681 Tk. per household compared to the non-beneficiary families in Kurigram.
The study revealed that the respondents of the two districts are not satisfied with the existing warning system. Around 76 percent of the respondents opined that receiving warning message seven days prior to the disaster event would be effective. In both districts, respondents identified miking as the best alternative means of warning dissemination which is being followed in the V2R project.
Recommendation The study strongly suggests that it is critical for the government to establish flood warning system in the flood-prone areas. It also feels the need for deputing a staff in the office of UNO exclusively for dissemination of warning message in order to make the warning system effective. The incumbent should receive the flood forecast bulletin from the Directorate of Disaster Management on a daily basis. He will develop disaster warning message for the sub-districts and unions analyzing the forecast report of FFWC and meteorological department. Upon the approval from the Project Implementing Officer and UNO, s/he, then, will send the warning message to the vulnerable unions. The entire trickle-down process of the disaster warning message dissemination needs to be thoroughly documented. Besides, the official concerned will closely monitor whether the warning message is appropriately disseminated or not and keep the PIO updated. Also, the in-charge of union information centre needs to be trained up so that he can be linked to the flood warning dissemination network.