The Reporter June 2009 VOL. 41, ISSUE 2
Tapped Out: The World Confronts the Water Challenge
A PUBLICATION OF
POPULATION CONNECTION
from the president
rom white clapboard Unitarian
be enough for everyone—though it
Isn’t population growth: a) Not really
churches tucked away in
would entail a diet foreign to most
a problem, b) Hopeless, or c) Already
Vermont’s Green Mountains to
Americans.
solved?
F
bustling California university campuses,
Clearly, there is no sustainable way
No, no, and no. Read any daily
I’m fortunate to be able to talk “popu-
to transport water from one continent
newspaper. You’ll find stories about
lation” all across America. I get all sorts
to another.
of questions. Here’s a sampling along with brief responses:
Much of the world seems to aspire
food, water, climate, human rights, and global security challenges posed
to High Consumption-American Style
by rapid population growth—although
with lots of meat and glittery gadgets
the “population connection” is usually
Will there be a worldwide collapse of
galore. We’ve long since exceeded a
omitted. Real progress has been made
social, economic, or environmental
global population level which could
in many places where families average
systems?
satisfy those appetites. For starters,
less than two children. But there are
let’s aim for zero population growth.
129 countries where family size ranges
global warming to threats posed by
As we near that goal, we’ll be better
from just over two children like in the
states like Somalia and Pakistan, trou-
able to assess what global population
U.S. to nearly eight in impoverished
bling signs abound. There is over-
number might provide a soft landing.
Niger. Population growth is highly rele-
From water and food shortages to
whelming evidence we’re living in a
vant—and eminently solvable. We
“population bubble.” But collapses are
Does religion play a major role in
know that voluntary family planning
notoriously hard to predict, especially
population growth?
works. And it’s a relatively cheap fix
in a world with 6.8 billion human variables. Collapse is already a daily fact of life
Yes and no. In many developed
compared to the cost of inaction.
countries, religion doesn’t seem to affect family size, although religion
These are just a handful of the ques-
for one billion people who struggle to
plays a role in U.S. policy debates.
tions that come up. Of course, every
survive on less than one dollar per day.
Despite Vatican edicts, U.S. Catholics
response leads to more questions
It’s useful to contemplate the implica-
have about the same number of chil-
which makes these sessions lively. I always learn something new myself.
tions of even broader collapse, but we
dren as Protestants and are just as like-
already know what we need to do
ly to use artificial contraception. While
right now.
there are Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia that have rapid population
What is the sustainable population
growth, Iran’s mullahs strongly support
level for the planet?
voluntary family planning. That’s part
This depends entirely on our values
of why Iranians have “stopped at two”
and assumptions. If the world food
children. So, it’s tough to generalize
supply was shared equally, there might
about religion.
John Seager john@popconnect.org
Need a speaker? We’re always on the lookout for opportunities to spread the message. John Seager, President of Population Connection, and other key staff are available to make the population connection to the environment, women’s rights, social justice, and other global issues. If your environmental organization, school, university, religious group, or other gathering could use a lively presentation, just email Natalie Widel at nwidel@popconnect.org or call her at 1-800-767-1956 ext. 7725.
Volume 41, Issue 2 June 2009 Cover: Family members collect fresh water for the day in East Timor. Photo: Steven Nowakowski, Courtesy of Photoshare
Pg. 7 and War
Pg. 8 Water—another global ‘crisis’?
By Maha Syed
By Richard Black
Book Review: Sex
Pg. 14 The World in 2050 By Bixby Forum
Pg. 16 Water and Sanitation in Western China
Pg. 17 Book Review: The Means of Reproduction
By Colleen Beck
By Marian Starkey
D E PA RT M E N T S
COLUMNS
2
PopPourri
18 Washington View
4
In the News
20 Field & Outreach
6
Editor’s Note
22 Pop. Ed.
24 Remark
Printed on recycled paper
A child drinks water from the tap in a village in Himachal Pradesh, India. Photo: Gaurav Gaur/Social Activist, Courtesy of Photoshare
More than 1.6 million people die each year from water-borne illnesses. Most of the deaths are to children under five. World Health Organization
Burmese refugee children pump common-source water at Mae La camp in northern Thailand. Photo: Wanda Walton, Courtesy of Photoshare
2
The Reporter — June 2009
The average American's daily water use (for all purposes, including energy and industry) is 1,500 gallons (about three times the world average).
Freshwater issues: a reference handbook Zachary A. Smith and Grenetta Thomassey
PopPourri
Global water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population growth in the last century. Water scarcity already affects every continent and more than 40 percent of the people on our planet. By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stressed conditions. The water scarcity situation is being exacerbated by climate change, especially in the driest areas of the world, which are home to more than 2 billion people and to half of all poor people. The human impact on the earth’s environment and climate must be addressed in order to protect the world’s water resources. But there are other factors involved, such as increases in the amount of water needed to grow the food for a growing population. Agriculture is the number-one user of freshwater worldwide. —FAO Director-General Dr. Jacques Diouf www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
3
In the News Family Planning is Thrifty Volume 41, Issue 2 June 2009 Managing Editor Marian Starkey Contributors Colleen Beck, Richard Black, Brian Dixon, Fred H. Bixby Forum, Rebecca Harrington, Joel Pett, John Seager, Marian Starkey, Maha Syed, Pam Wasserman
The Guttmacher Institute released a
to 2007. The jump was more dramatic from 2005 to 2006, at 3.4%. Before 2006, the
report in February, following the striking of
rate had been declining steadily for 14
family planning funds from the stimulus bill,
years. In 2007, 42.5 out of every thousand
that detailed exactly how much that fund-
teens ages 15-19 gave birth.
ing would have boosted the economy. Each dollar spent on publicly funded fami-
John S. Santelli of Columbia University, who studies teenage sexual behavior, said
ly planning saves $4 on neonatal care for
“It's a huge disappointment and a huge fail-
the unintended pregnancies of women who
ure in public policy to see this [trend]
rely on Medicaid.
reverse itself.”
Title X (ten) and other publicly funded
Graphic Artist Marian Starkey
programs prevent 2 million unintended
Population Connection
pregnancies each year—400,000 of them to
After withholding congressionally-appro-
Overpopulation threatens the quality of life for people everywhere. Population Connection is the national grassroots population organization that educates young people and advocates progressive action to stabilize world population at a level that can be sustained by Earth’s resources.
teens. Guttmacher estimates that more than
priated support for seven consecutive years,
9 million women received publicly funded
the United States resumed funding the
family planning in 2006, the year from
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in
which data was used for the study.
March. The 2009 Omnibus appropriations
‘Provider Conscience’ Rule
$50 million for UNFPA, up from $34 million
The Reporter (ISSN 0199-0071) Population Connection 2120 L Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20037
on its Way Out
bill, signed by President Obama, included
President Obama has moved to rescind Bush’s last-minute ‘provider conscience’ reg-
Phone: 202-332-2200 or
ulation. The rule states that health care
1-800-767-1956
employers that receive federal funding can-
Fax: 202-332-2302
not discriminate when hiring employees
Email: info@popconnect.org Website: www.popconnect.org
$50 Million for UNFPA
who refuse to perform certain necessary job functions that they find ‘morally objection-
Board Chair Patricia Burke
able.’ Examples of services that providers
President John Seager
contraception, infertility treatments, and
in 2001, before President Bush cut funding. “We believe that access to safe and effective voluntary family planning is one of the most effective ways to prevent unintended pregnancies and empower women and men to plan their families,” said UNFPA Executive Director, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. “If a woman cannot make decisions about her own fertility, then she cannot make decisions about anything else in her life.”
could refuse are the provision of emergency HIV/AIDS medication. The rescinded rule will be replaced with one designed to better protect patients’ reproductive rights.
Global Gag Rule Rescinded One day after the anniversary of Roe vs. Wade, President Obama signed an executive order, reversing the Global Gag Rule.
Teen Birth Rate Rises Again For the second year in a row, the rate of American teens having babies increased, according to the Centers for Disease Control. The rate climbed 1.4% from 2006
4
The Reporter — June 2009
For eight years, foreign reproductive health organizations have had to choose between providing their full range of services and receiving U.S. foreign assistance. On January 23, President Obama ended that foolish and often deadly dilemma.
In his written statement, Obama said, “It is clear that the provisions of the Mexico City Policy are unnecessarily broad and
ductive age in the developing world has increased from 680 million to 1.4 billion. The former directors represent every pres-
unwarranted under current law, and for the
idential administration from Jimmy Carter
past eight years, they have undermined
through George W. Bush. One of the
efforts to promote safe and effective volun-
authors, Duff Gillespie, is a professor at
tary family planning in developing countries.
Johns Hopkins University and a Population
For these reasons, it is right for us to rescind
Connection Board Member.
this policy and restore critical efforts to pro-
Making the Case for U.S. International
tect and empower women and promote
Family Planning Assistance is available for
global economic development.”
download on our website.
Australia Ditches Abortion
Plan B Now Available to 17-
Aid Ban
Year-Olds Over the Counter
Australian Foreign Minister, Stephen
Federal Judge Edward R. Korman ordered
Smith, announced in March that the coun-
in March that the FDA extend over-the-
try’s own version of the Global Gag Rule
counter access to emergency contraception
had been lifted. The ban on funding to
(also known as brand name Plan B and the
groups that provide or counsel on abortion
“morning after pill”) to 17-year-olds. Since
had been in place since 1996.
2006, the drug has only been available
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd does not personally support the move, but backed it
over-the-counter to women 18 and older. Susan Wood famously resigned from her
because of overwhelming support among
position as director of the Office of
Labor Party members. He came under fire
Women’s Health at FDA in 2005, during the
by his right-wing base for not using his
Bush Administration, over the agency’s
authority to block the policy change.
bowing to political pressure. She believes (along with many other health profession-
Making the Case Five former directors of USAID’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health published a report in April that calls on the Obama Administration to increase funding to $1.2 billion for international family planning programs in 2010. By 2014, the five authors recommend that funding increase to $1.5 billion in order to serve 58 countries, up from 53 today. Since the 1970s, U.S. funding for international family planning has stagnated. And since then, the number of women of reprowww.popconnect.org
als) that there should be no age restrictions at all. “No one should be blocked from it. There are a lot of over-the-counter drugs with much more serious safety issues, this is not breaking any new ground.” Plan B works best within 24 hours of unprotected sex or contraceptive failure (and is not as effective after 72 hours). The pills stop a woman who is not already pregnant from ovulating, preventing fertilization. Judge Korman ordered that the FDA consider expanding OTC access to women of all ages, including those younger than 17. June 2009 — The Reporter
5
editor’s note
very three years, scientists, political leaders, and
tan region, Georgia as a whole is growing by about 2% a
activists from around the world gather to address the
year, making it the fifth fastest growing state in the country.
future of water on this salty, blue planet. They discuss
Residents and policymakers are discovering that such
E
water scarcity, potential solutions, and political commitment to realizing those solutions. The Fifth World Water Forum, held in Istanbul in March
growth comes at a price. Lake Michigan is approximately a full foot below its longterm water level, even after accounting for seasonal
and coinciding with World Water Day, drew more than
changes in precipitation. A regional compact between the
33,000 participants from 192 countries.
eight states bordering the Great Lakes already bans new
The United Nations timed the release of its new report
diversions of water from the Great Lakes Basin. But the
“Water in a Changing World” with opening day. The docu-
Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning warns that
ment includes a section about demographic drivers of water
demand for that water could still increase 64% by 2050,
shortages, which clearly illustrates the challenges a growing
due mostly to local population growth. Even without
population presents to the globe’s water security.
exporting water to other parts of the country, the Great
Specifically, the authors state that a population growing by
Lakes will face great strains in the coming decades as more
nearly 80 million a year implies an increase in freshwater
thirsty people call the region home.
demand of 64 billion cubic meters. And this, in a world
Water is not distributed evenly or based on real need.
where many regions are already experiencing a decrease in
Annual per capita water withdrawals vary by country and
freshwater supplies due to climate change. To download the
region. North Americans, for example, use 1,668 cubic
report, see www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr/wwdr3/. On average, about 70% of human water consumption is
meters of water per year, while sub-Saharan Africans use a meager 178 cubic meters. In sub-Saharan Africa 340 million
used for agriculture. Of course, there is waste and therefore
people still do not have access to clean drinking water. The
room for improvement (drip irrigation, drought-tolerant
Millennium Development Goals seek to address this short-
seed varieties, low-meat diets, etc.), but eventually the pop-
coming, but with Africa growing so quickly, development
ulation requiring food will catch up with new technologies
agencies are hard-pressed to keep up.
and behaviors that could buy us time in the short run. And it’s not just the developing world that’s having diffi-
Water is a vital substance that makes Earth uniquely hospitable to people, plants, and animals. Although 75% of the
culty meeting water demands. According to a Government
planet may be covered by water, only 0.3% of that is fresh
Accountability Office report, 36 states are in danger of fac-
and available for consumption. A smaller population would
ing water shortages in the near future. Seven states rely on
ease the growing demand for freshwater that threatens the
the Colorado River Basin for all of their water needs. The
well-being of all but the very richest people on Earth.
river that once gushed all the way through Mexico to the Sea of Cortez has been at record lows since 2000. Researchers at Scripps Institute predict that Lake Mead, a dammed section of the Colorado River just east of Las Vegas, has a 50% chance of running dry by 2021. Legislators in Georgia are so concerned about shortages that they are attempting to annex a portion of Tennessee in order to gain access to the waters of the Tennessee River. Georgia has a long standing dispute with Alabama and
6
Florida over the distribution of water in Lake Lanier. Largely
Marian Starkey
due to massive population growth in the Atlanta metropoli-
mstarkey@popconnect.org
The Reporter — June 2009
Benbella Books. 2009. Pp 457. US$ 24.95. ISBN 1933771577
Book Review: Sex and War By Maha Syed, Grassroots Fellow
n Sex and War, Malcolm Potts and Thomas Hayden
from the outside.
attempt to explain war and terrorism through human
Stabilization can and
and primate biology. For the most part, they deliver.
should be achieved
I
Sex and War deconstructs evolutionary biology in a dis-
through women’s
cursive manner aimed at the non-scientist. The human male
empowerment. When
predisposition to behave violently is compared with similar
society overcomes
warlike behaviors of male chimpanzees. With recurrent ref-
“the evolved male
erences to Jane Goodall’s research and endless historical
drive to control female
examples, Potts and Hayden seek to demonstrate that man’s
reproduction” for the
affinity for war is an “evolutionary hangover,” which helped
purpose of spreading
our ancestors survive in prehistoric times but is now a devel-
their genes, women
opment obstacle.
and couples generally choose to have smaller families.
Their Hobbesian argument is that war is the natural state
The authors dispel the myth that poor women must either
of humans. The authors insist that the question should not
be left to perpetuate the cycle of high fertility or be coerced
be “Why does war break out?,” but rather, “Why does
to have smaller families in order to climb out of the poverty
peace break out?” Referring to the testosterone molecule as
trap. Potts and Hayden cite numerous country examples
the “ultimate weapon of mass destruction,” they contend
where family size has declined due to simple contraceptive
that the propensity of male humans for war is testosterone-
access.
driven. Women, they say, are more likely to possess charac-
Sex and War touches on the intriguing example provided
teristics of empathy and compromise. Peace, therefore, is
by the Bonobo, the smaller genus-mate of the Common
more easily attained when women are active members of
Chimpanzee. Unlike chimpanzees, bonobos do not partake
society and are free to participate in political life. The chap-
in team aggression, although other sources have recently
ter dedicated to this theory was co-written by Potts’ wife,
reported that they can and do hunt their prey. When a new
Martha Campbell.
female enters a bonobo troop, she establishes a sexual rela-
Sex and War postulates that men have a unique ability to
tionship with another female (male bonobos also partake in
dehumanize other people by creating in-groups and out-
homosexual activities). Perhaps because of these sexual
groups. In-group mentality, they say, is especially dangerous
bonds, females stand up for each other against larger
within youth bulges, a phenomenon caused by rapid popu-
imposing males, giving them equal status. Research suggests
lation growth. Young men, aged fifteen to twenty nine, are
that this recreational sexual activity may diffuse agitation in
the demographic most susceptible to violent behavior.
tense situations, an intuitively logical finding.
Irrational decision-making, sexual frustration, inadequate
Gender equality and non-procreative sex may be keys to
employment and lack of material resources are among the
bonobos’ peaceful existence. The book does not detail the
factors behind youth bulge violence. “With the exception of
evolution of bonobos from our common ancestors. This
Bosnia in 1994-1995, every time the U.S. military has inter-
could have been interesting given their pacific lifestyle. We
vened on the ground since 1990, it has been where the
humans, perched on a nearby branch of the family tree,
average woman has four or more children—in other words,
engage in countless wars and conflicts. Perhaps one day, we
political instability and violence often follow hard on the
humans will evolve to be as peace-loving as the Bonobo.
heels of high birthrates.” A future with less conflict may
There’s no escaping the fact that we’ve produced the
hinge on slowing population growth in the most conflict-
abhorrent likes of Genghis Khan and Joseph Stalin. But we
prone parts of the world.
also count Mozart, Shakespeare, and Gandhi among our
Potts and Hayden do not advocate controlling population www.popconnect.org
numbers. Perhaps there is hope for us yet. June 2009 — The Reporter
7
Water—another global 'crisis'?
I
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News Reprinted with permission from BBC News at bbc.co.uk/news
f you look at the numbers, it is hard to see how many East African communities
made it through the long drought of 2005 and 2006. Among people who study human development, it is a widely-held view that each person needs about 20 liters
of water each day for the basics—to drink, cook and wash sufficiently to avoid disease transmission.
Yet at the height of the East African drought, people were getting by on less than five liters a day—in some cases, less
Two key questions arise, then.
than one liter a day, enough for just three glasses of drink-
Why do some communities have so little access to water?
ing water and nothing left over. Some people, perhaps incredibly from a western vantage
And how will the current picture change in a world where the human population is growing, where societies are
point, are hardy enough to survive in these conditions; but it
urbanizing and industrializing, and where climate change
is not a recipe for a society that is healthy and developing
may alter the raw availability of water significantly?
enough to break out of poverty. “Obviously there are many drivers of human development,” says the UN’s Andrew Hudson. “But water is the most important.” At the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), where Dr. Hudson works as principal technical advisor to the water governance program, he calculated the contribution that various factors make to the Human Development Index, a measure of how societies are doing socially and economically. “It was striking. I looked at access to energy, spending on
The UNDP is unequivocal about the first question. “The availability of water is a concern for some countries,” says the report. “But the scarcity at the heart of the global water crisis is rooted in power, poverty and inequality, not in physical availability.” Statistics on water consumption appear to back the UN’s case. Japan and Cambodia experience about the same average rainfall—about 160 cm per year. But whereas the average Japanese person can use nearly
health, spending on education—and by far the strongest
400 liters per day, the average Cambodian must make do
driver of the HDI on a global scale was access to water and
with about one-tenth of that.
sanitation.” 8
Different lives
The Reporter — June 2009
The picture is improving to some extent.
A queue of water containers near Jayanti village, Mohali, Punjab, India. Photo: Gaurav Gaur/Social Activist, Courtesy of Photoshare
Across the world, 1.6 billion more people have access to clean drinking water than in 1990. But population growth and climatic changes could change the picture. In some regions, “the scarcity at the heart of the global
of the river every year to make sure it doesn’t dry up. “The Aral Sea and Lake Chad have shrunk because the rivers that feed them have been largely dried out; and you can see it on a smaller scale as well, where streams that are important for small communities in Tanzania may go dry for
water crisis” could become one of physical availability, espe-
half the year, largely because people are taking more and
cially in places where consumption is already unsustainably
more water for irrigating crops.”
high. “There are several rivers that don’t reach the sea any more,” says Mark Smith, head of the water program at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). “The Yellow River is one, the Murray-Darling (in Australia) is nearly another—they have to dredge the mouth www.popconnect.org
Wet and dry
Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took an in-depth look at how the raw availability of water might alter in the future as climatic patterns change. Its projections are derived from computer models of the June 2009 — The Reporter
9
During a sunny day of work in the fields, Kopila Tamang from Gatlang village, Nepal, drinks unsafe water tapped from a nearby stream. Photo: Rakesh Yogal Shrestha/Practical Action Nepal, Courtesy of Photoshare
10
The Reporter — June 2009
Earth’s hugely complex climate system, and as such are far from being firm forecasts. A warmer climate overall means a wetter climate; warmer air can hold more moisture. But weather patterns are likely to shift, meaning that water will be deposited in different places with a different pattern in time. “In general we see drying in the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, from southern Europe across to Kazakhstan and from North Africa to Iran,” recounts Martin Parry, who as cochair of the IPCC’s working group on climate impacts oversaw the water report’s compilation. “And the drying extends westwards into Central America. And there are equivalents in the southern hemisphere—southern Africa, Australia.” In some populated parts of North Africa and Central Asia, he says, people may struggle simply to get enough to drink. Other areas, meanwhile, are projected to receive more rain—considerably more, in some cases. The question then is whether societies can make use of it. “If you look at India, Bangladesh and Burma, there are indications of an increase in water availability,” says Professor Parry. “But when you look in more detail you see that monsoonal precipitation will become more intense—there’ll be a heavier downpour but over fewer days—so you might just end up with more runoff, which could actually mean less availability of water to the community.” Thirsty work
A changing climate is only one of the factors likely to affect the amount of water at each person’s disposal in future. A more populated world—and there could be another 2.5 billion people on the planet by 2050—is likely to be a thirstier world. Those extra people will need feeding; and as agriculture accounts for about 70% of water use around the world, extra consumption for growing food is likely to reduce the amount available for those basic needs of drinking, cooking and washing. www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
11
Industry can also take water that would otherwise have ended up in peoples’ mouths. On the other hand, as a society industrializes it tends to become less reliant on farming—which could, in principle, reduce its local demand. It is a tremendously complex picture; and forecasting its
“A more populated world—and there could be another 2.5 billion people on the planet by 2050—is likely to be a thirstier world.”
impacts makes simple climate modelling look a trivial task by comparison. Researchers at the University of Kassel in Germany, led by Martina Floerke, have attempted it. Their projections suggest that some regions are likely to see drastic declines in the amount of water available for personal use—and for intriguing reasons. “The principal cause of decreasing water stress (where it occurs) is the greater availability of water due to increased annual precipitation related to climate change,” they conclude. “The principal cause of increasing water stress is growing water withdrawals, and the most important factor for this increase is the growth of domestic water use stimulated by income growth.” The modelling suggests that by the 2050s, as many as six billion people could face water scarcity (defined as less than 1,000 cubic meters per person per year), depending, most importantly, on how societies develop—a significant increase on previous estimates.
A girl carries her little brother along the Ciliwung, the most polluted river in Jakarta, Indonesia. Photo: H.Ismail/Panon Photos, Courtesy of Photoshare
Ideas pipeline
The irony is that the richer societies are the ones most likely to be able to adapt to these changes—perhaps relatively easily. A century ago, a 500 km-long pipeline was built to bring water from the Western Australian coast to the parched inland goldfields around Kalgoorlie; the economics of gold made it viable. Now that the coastal capital Perth is drying out, there is talk of building an even longer pipeline to bring water from the north of the state. The state recently acquired a desalination plant—an effective, but expensive, way of increasing the raw supply of clean water. A number of Middle Eastern countries are
12
The Reporter — June 2009
Access to safe drinking water. (2008). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved May 8, 2009 from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/access-to-safe-drinking-water.
doing the same; it is even being contemplated near London.
you know it you've allocated more than you actually have.”
Rivers can be diverted huge distances, as China is con-
Two years ago I stood in a forest clearing in the west of
templating. Spain and Cyprus can take water deliveries by
the Amazon basin talking to researchers studying the defor-
ship.
estation and fires that are an increasing plague in the
But can all societies afford such measures? In any case, is adaptation possible to some of the really big projected changes, such as the rapid shrinking of Himalayan glaciers which may lose four-fifths of their area
region. They told me that some villages around there were experiencing water shortages. How can that happen, I asked incredulously, in the middle
by 2030, removing what is effectively a huge natural reser-
of the Amazon rainforest, in one of the most luxuriously
voir storing water for more than a billion people?
verdant places on Earth?
“In principle you could do it, if you’re equipped to do the engineering,” says Mark Smith. “But societies are going to have to get much better at deciding how they’re going to use their water. “And very often, in developing countries where institutions are not well established, decisions are made in a very ad-hoc
What had brought the shortages was a combination of increased human settlement, deforestation, and a drying of some streams, possibly related to climate change. If even the Amazon can feel these pressures, it is difficult not to think that the same picture will be played out in much starker and possibly much messier colors in parts of
way—someone says ‘yes let’s use this much for irrigation’ but
the world that are already feeling the heat of dwindling sup-
you're already using that much for a sugar mill, and before
plies and growing needs.
www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
13
The Fred H. The World in 2050: A Scientific Population Growth n international group of 42 scientists met at the
In 2007, Western donor contributions to family planning
University of California, Berkeley on January 23-24,
were less than a quarter of the inflation-adjusted target set
2009 to discuss The World in 2050, and how global
at the 1994 International Conference on Population and
A
changes in the human population might change our future.
Development. Shrinking family planning budgets have been
The meeting was organized by the Bixby Centers at the
associated with stalled fertility decline in a number of coun-
University of California at Berkeley, San Francisco, and Los
tries, leading to serious adverse effects on the health of
Angeles. The participants all spoke as individuals and not as
women and their families and the stability and progress of
representatives of governments or organizations. The pro-
civil society. In Kenya, as a result of diminished focus on
ceedings are web-cast (see www.prb.org/Journalists/
family planning, the projected population in 2050 has been
Webcasts/worldin2050/worldin2050-overview.aspx) and
increased from 54 million to 83 million. Some observers pre-
the papers prepared for the Forum will be published as a
dict that an increase of this magnitude may lead to food
theme issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
scarcity and crumbling infrastructure, and, potentially, to
Society B. This statement, prepared by the organizers, sum-
violent conflicts over scarce resources.
marizes some conclusions of the meeting without committing every participant to support of every detail.
With over 80 million unintended pregnancies each year, there is already a large unmet need for family planning.
Rapid population growth in some regions, combined with
Surveys show that 200 million women wish to delay or stop
increasing affluence and explosive growth in fossil fuel and
the next pregnancy and over 100 million are not using any
natural resources consumption throughout the world, is
contraception because they lack access to it or face other
seriously endangering a broad range of natural systems
barriers to its use. Even in the United States, one of the
that support life. For the first time in history, much of the
most affluent nations in the world, half of all pregnancies
natural world is adversely affected by human activity. Global
are unintended.
warming is just one among many threats to sustaining human life, wildlife, and the natural environment.
Meeting the unmet need for family planning has been highly successful in slowing rapid population growth.
The United Nations projects that the human population
Ready access to contraception and safe abortion has
will increase from the current 6.8 billion to between 8 bil-
decreased family size, even in illiterate communities living on
lion and 10.5 billon in 2050. Although more than half the
less than a dollar a day. Increased access to family planning
world’s women now have an average of two children or
will make it easier for countries with rapidly growing popu-
fewer, the global population is still growing rapidly and this
lations to expand education. Education, in turn, particularly
year there will be 78 million more births than deaths (a
of women, makes an important contribution to fertility
number slightly less than the population of Germany). Over
decline and a crucial contribution to development. However,
95 percent of this growth is in low-income countries least
rapidly growing countries cannot always expand education
able to provide for these numbers. Despite deaths from
fast enough to keep pace with the growing number of chil-
AIDS, much of the fastest population growth is in sub-
dren each year.
Saharan Africa. 14
The Reporter — June 2009
Bixby Forum Investigation of the Impact of Global on a Divided Planet
Participants of the Bixby Forum, The World in 2050: A Scientific Investigation of the Impact of Global Population Changes on a Divided Planet Photo: Yana Edwin Murphy
The coming decade should be dedicated to the needs of
All women should be protected from unintended childbirth.
the one billion young people aged 15 to 24 in the world,
Making every birth a wanted birth is a goal that can be
the majority living in low-income settings with limited
approached through improved access to family planning.
educational and employment opportunities. Every young
Reaching this goal is vital to creating a healthier and more
person should have full access to contraception and knowl-
equitable world.
edge of how to use it. The burden of ill health associated with unsafe abortion must be confronted, especially among
Malcolm Potts MB, BChir, PhD, FRCOG
young people who are often most vulnerable to unintended
Bixby Center for Population, Health and Sustainability
pregnancy.
University of California, Berkeley
The unmet need for contraception in low-income countries
Anne M. Pebley, MPA, PhD
is calculated to increase from 498 million couples in 2000
Bixby Program in Population and Reproductive Health
to 722 million by 2015. It is essential that national leaders
University of California, Los Angeles
and international donors, especially the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, understand the imperative to
J. Joseph Speidel MD, MPH
invest in education and improved access to family planning.
Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health University of California, San Francisco
www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
15
Water and Sanitation in Western China
A man plows what will become a rice field in Guizhou, with the help of his water buffalo. Photo: Colleen Beck
By Colleen Beck, Education Program Associate
few years ago, I spent a year in the
A
world’s most populous country as a university English teacher. The
placement agency assigned me to Guiyang, the capitol city of Guizhou Province in the southwestern part of China. One of China’s poorest provinces, Guizhou is home to over 35 million people and 30 ethnic minority
my stomach pains.” Of course, my
tinues to be a nagging development
groups.
stomach pains were probably due to the
hurdle. The strain placed on water infra-
little bit of water that seeped into my
structure by China’s massive population
outside the school grounds, at market
mouth while showering. Giardia is a
growth over the past half century has
stalls along the street. Farmers from
common intestinal parasite that is found
certainly hindered progress toward uni-
nearby villages came to the city every
in water systems all over the world,
versal access to improved water and
day to sell their freshly cultivated crops.
including the U.S. It poses a problem for
sanitation. In rural parts of the country,
After bargaining for each apple, onion,
people living in developing countries
300 million people don’t have access to
or scoop of rice I bought, I walked back
where tap water is often not properly
safe drinking water. Growing industry
up the hill to my apartment to fry or
treated.
and urban sprawl contribute to the con-
I did my daily grocery shopping right
boil the locally grown, perfectly ripe
tamination of rivers and lakes with
vegetables and grains. Although the
sider the Western toilet completely
wastewater from factories and agricul-
produce in China is succulent, the
unsanitary because it requires users to
ture. Farmers use 60% of the freshwa-
sewage isn’t completely flushed out of
touch their skin to the same seat that
ter in China, and the livestock runoff is
many irrigation systems, making for one
others have used. Chinese people prefer
a serious concern.
giant zucchini but a very sick stomach if
to use a “squattie.” Small fixtures on
you were to eat the food raw.
the bathroom floor, squatties are built
to divert water, sometimes at great
Therefore, no one would dream of eat-
with hygiene in mind. Some public
environmental cost, such as the Three
ing produce in China without cooking it
bathrooms have connecting toilets
Gorges Dam, the South-to-North Water
first.
China is undertaking massive projects
where an automatic flusher allows
Diversion Project (in progress), and
water to wash through all the stalls at
cloud seeding (a process by which
tled or after being boiled. This practice
once. This is a logical way for public
chemicals are either released from air-
lends itself perfectly to the Chinese art
restrooms to conserve water. The
planes or shot into the sky from the
of drinking tea. There are teashops on
downside is that usually the sewage is
ground to cause rain to fall from
every corner in urban China, where the
dumped outside from pipes hanging off
clouds). Ingenuity is not lacking, and as
owners recommend appropriate teas for
the roof, into a catchment below. This is
China’s population stabilizes, the coun-
the heart, lungs, or stomach. Several
why it’s wise never to walk under flow-
try’s ability to overcome water and sani-
times, students knocked at my door
ing water from a rooftop in China.
tation problems will hopefully become
Drinking water was served either bot-
offering chamomile tea to “help calm 16
Ironically, most Chinese people con-
The Reporter — June 2009
Providing clean water in China con-
more manageable.
Book Review: The Means of Reproduction By Marian Starkey, Managing Editor
“A global culture war is raging, and it’s all about who controls women’s fertility—and, more broadly, women themselves.”
T
but are still expected to
things. It is about population growth and the envi-
be primary caretakers for
ronmental degradation and economic stagnation in
their children, forcing
the developing world that result. It is about countries that
them to make difficult
have moved so far beyond the demographic transition that
decisions about which
they are facing shrinking native populations. It is about sex-
responsibility to commit
selective abortion and the massive gender ratio imbalances
to more devotedly,
seen in countries like China, India, Vietnam, and South
women are not equal.
Korea. But mostly, it is about women’s place in a world that
For all she did well,
has consistently kept them from exercising free will for all of
unfortunately, Goldberg
known human history.
slightly succumbs to the
Goldberg details the history of the sometimes-coercive
The Penguin Press. 2009. Pp 272. US$ 25.95. ISBN 978-1-59420-208-7
he Means of Reproduction is a book about many
panic about aging soci-
early population control programs of the 20th century, from
eties in Europe and
India’s vasectomy round-ups to China’s one-child policy. She
Japan, calling it the
sheds light on the commitment of bipartisan leaders to pop-
“first-world fertility cri-
ulation control during the Cold War, when fears about
sis.” She breathlessly rattles off the consequences (all eco-
Communist populations growing in strength through num-
nomic) of aging populations, and then dramatically con-
bers were widespread. She describes how women’s rights
cludes with a quote by Vladimir Putin, who views Russia’s
became the focus of such programs in the latter part of the
low birthrate as “the most acute problem facing our country
century, and how that development sparked ecumenical
today.” She refers to the American birthrate as “healthy,”
protest against reproductive rights initiatives for fear of
compared with the rates of those countries in “crisis.”
women stepping outside their “proper place” in the home.
Demographers have analyzed census data and found that
And she presents a vision for future programs and policies
with minor policy changes (slightly later retirement and
that will genuinely allow women to make their own fertility
increased part-time work opportunities for teens and moth-
and employment decisions, without being coerced by their
ers) and shifting resource allocations (from schools and early
husbands, international donors, or their governments.
childhood programs to elder care), dependency ratios will be
In addition to sharing the factual fruits of her extensive archival and on-the-ground research, Goldberg offers theories to explain why women make the childbearing decisions they do. Paradoxically, reproductive rights can precede the eleva-
lower than they were when birthrates were high, meaning that alarm over a shrinking workforce is unwarranted. She gets it right though when describing one element related to America’s birthrate, “More than a fifth of American children live in poverty, the highest rate in the developed
tion of women’s value in society, resulting in a backward
world.” She goes on to condemn one modern political trend,
slide for women’s rights in general. Progressive as liberal
“American conservatives are proud that their country pro-
abortion rights may be, when women use those rights to
duces so much human capital but are oddly content to throw
selectively abort female fetuses because girls and women
much of it away.”
have lower value in society, women aren’t equal. When
She eloquently summarizes the riddle of women’s repro-
women are so brainwashed as to think that subjecting their
ductive rights and the future of the world: “Women’s inti-
daughters to female genital mutilation is the only way their
mate lives have become inextricably tied to global forces. At
daughters will be marriageable, women aren’t equal. And
the same time, the fate of the planet has become inextrica-
when women are permitted full access to the labor market
bly tied to women’s ability to control their own lives.”
www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
17
Washington View
Obama’s First 100 Days Demonstrating a real commitment to family planning By Brian Dixon, Vice President for Media and Government Relations
he press loves milestone events. And
T
largest multilateral agency working to pro-
when President Obama marked his
vide family planning and reproductive health
100th day in office, they were all
services in the developing world;
over it. At some point in history the hundred day mark became some sort of guidepost to a presidency. My favorite analysis of Obama’s first hundred days was headlined “Give Him
• Signed legislation increasing funding for international family planning by $84 million; • Called for the expansion of family planning services under Medicaid; • Allowed for the provision of affordable
an Incomplete.” Duh, I thought. Of course
birth control at college health centers and
it’s incomplete. He’ll be president for at least
other safety net providers;
four years—he’s been president for less than four months. On issues of population and family plan-
• Reversed the 11th hour Bush regulation allowing health care providers to refuse to provide birth control to women; and,
ning, he has already made important marks
• Appointed highly qualified people to
that provide a sense of promise of real and
critical jobs overseeing reproductive health
lasting improvements for people around the
policies domestically and internationally.
world. Following the election, but prior to
In addition, the Obama Administration
the inauguration, Population Connection
made it clear during a United Nations meet-
joined a host of organizations concerned
ing on population and development that the
with family planning and reproductive health
United States was, once again, looking to be
and rights to ask the incoming president to
a helpful partner in the effort to ensure uni-
take quick action on a number of critical
versal access to family planning.
issues. He hasn’t done everything we asked—yet. But of some 15 actions we urged him to
opponents in Congress fought against nearly
nearly half. Obama has:
all of them. Just days after Obama rescinded
the first week; • Restored funding to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the world’s The Reporter — June 2009
These accomplishments weren’t easy, and
take within the first hundred days, he’s done • Rescinded the Global Gag Rule within
18
Predictable Opposition
the Global Gag Rule, Sen. Mel Martinez (RFL) offered an amendment on the floor of the Senate to reinstate it—his amendment was defeated by a wide margin. Weeks later,
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) offered another
that will extend contraceptive coverage
amendment to, in his words, prohibit sup-
under Medicaid while making the program
port to UNFPA.
more efficient and cost effective.
Sadly, not a single Republican in either the
These budget numbers aren’t as high as
House or the Senate voted in favor of the
we would have liked, but given the current
legislation that increased funding for inter-
economic climate, any increase is significant.
national family planning and allowed college
They also indicate that family planning is a
health centers to provide affordable birth
real priority for this Administration; the over-
control. It’s clear that the opponents of fam-
all global health budget will see an increase
ily planning aren’t going away.
of $93 million, and half of that is going to
Given the firm opposition to family plan-
family planning programs. That certainly
ning by some in Congress, the commitment
indicates President Obama’s deep commit-
of President Obama is especially important.
ment to the cause and can only bode well
There is much to applaud in Obama’s work
for the future.
on these issues, but there remains much left to be done. Lifting the Global Gag Rule and
Abstinence-Only Programs Finally Getting the
supporting UNFPA are important steps, but
Funding They Deserve—$0
good policies mean little without adequate funding.
There’s more immediate good news, as well. The new budget calls for the elimination of federal abstinence-only programs,
Victories in the 2010 Budget
When the White House released its
which, despite a mountain of evidence of ineffectiveness and inaccuracy, had been lav-
detailed budget on May 7, there was even
ishly funded under the Bush Administration.
more good news.
Instead, the President has proposed a new
The new budget includes $593 million for
effort, funded at $173 million, to use evi-
international family planning, an increase of
dence-based approaches to prevent teen
$48 million over the current funding level.
pregnancy. It’s long past time that the
Of that total, $50 million will be provided to
United States government made a serious
the United Nations Population Fund
commitment to reducing the teen pregnancy
(UNFPA). This funding will help begin to
rate in this country. The only way to do that
reverse the nearly decade-long effort to
is to identify programs that really work and
starve family planning providers of the funds
make them widely available. And a commit-
necessary to meet the needs of people in
ment of $173 million can help make that a
the poorest countries in the world. It’s not
reality.
the full billion dollars we need—but it’s a big step in the right direction. In addition, the budget contains two pro-
We’re going to need your help as this budget makes its way through Congress in the coming weeks. You can bet that foes of
visions aimed at increasing access to family
family planning will be looking for ways to
planning services for low income women
undo our progress. We’re committed to
here in the United States: a $10 million
stopping them, and I hope we can count on
increase to Title X (ten), and a policy change
your support.
www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
19
Field & Outreach
We Can’t Grow on Like This
Capitol Hill Days Advocates trained in Washington, DC By Rebecca Harrington, National Field Coordinator
n her address at this year’s annual con-
I
ference, Sarah Craven of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) shared
the reflection of former colleague, Terri Bartlett. Bartlett, who passed away in late
Informational Workshops
On Saturday, sessions by local experts linked population and international family planning with several important issues. Kathleen Mogelgaard of Population Action
2008, famously said on NPR, “You can go
International delivered a dynamic presenta-
anywhere in the world and find Coca-Cola
tion on demography and climate change.
and a Marlboro cigarette. Why can’t you
Jennie Quick of Population Services
find a condom?”
International talked about global health. Gib
This question perfectly encapsulated the
Clarke of the Woodrow Wilson Center shed
theme of Capitol Hill Days 2009, which took
light on the links between demography and
place May 1-5 in Washington, DC. Keeping
conflict. Lester Brown, president of Earth
in line with our Double the Money cam-
Policy Institute, gave a tremendously well-
paign, we focused this year on international
received keynote address about food security.
family planning assistance. Speakers framed
Our own Brian Dixon and Stacie Murphy
the issue with discussions of climate change,
outlined current reproductive health policy,
global health, and natural resource security.
while Sarah Craven of UNFPA and Rob
Opening Night
Parenthood Federation (IPPF) talked about
Gustafson of the International Planned The event kicked off on Friday evening
20
The Reporter — June 2009
actual service delivery on the ground.
with a screening of Not Yet Rain, a short
In a recent trip to Ethiopia, Craven and
documentary about abortion in Ethiopia.
Gustafson met with an OB/GYN who by
Afterward, filmmaker Lisa Russell explained
most standards would be considered a hero.
her motivation for making the film, “After
However, when they asked how they could
witnessing the power of my previous advo-
make his job easier, he requested to be sent
cacy film, Love, Labor, Loss to engage new
somewhere else to work. Without funding
audiences on a difficult women's health
to provide family planning services to all of
issue such as obstetric fistula, I wanted to
the women who desperately want it, the
make a film about another relatively silent
doctor felt as though he was accomplishing
women's health issue—unsafe abortion. I
nothing and had become overwhelmed.
wanted to put a face to the problem and to
Many health professionals around the devel-
produce a tool that would spark dialogue
oping world feel the same way. They know
about this controversial topic that continues
how much women need their services, but
to take women's lives unnecessarily.”
they are unable to reach everyone.
Lobby Training
On Sunday, Stacie Murphy led an interactive lobby training, in which participants had the opportunity to ask questions, role-play, and prepare for their meetings with samestate peers.
Clockwise from top left: Peggy Alpert and Victoria Young following along during lobby training; Lester Brown giving his keynote address; longtime member Jacqueline Fincher; Steve Brown asking a question about his representative; Mona Mohamad and Jade Boswell participating in a mock lobby visit with Stacie Murphy.
The event culminated on Monday and Tuesday when participants headed to Capitol Hill to meet with their members of Congress. Jade Boswell and Stephen Webber, graduate students from New Mexico, had a noteworthy meeting at Senator Tom Udall’s office. Toward the end of the meeting with the legislative assistant, Senator Udall joined our citizen lobbyists and expressed his full support for increasing family planning assistance. Capitol Hill Days 2009 reaffirmed our grassroots commitment to achieving global reproductive justice. With lots of new advocates trained and 37 congressional offices visited, Population Connection is that much closer to “doubling the money” for international family planning. Seattle University student Kraig Cook enthusiastically summed up his experience, “I came into Capitol Hill Days passionate and interested in a wide variety of global development issues, but I learned so much at the conference about international family planning that I really feel like my interest in global issues now has a clear and distinct focus.”
www.popconnect.org
June 2009 — The Reporter
21
PopEd
Water, Water Everywhere This Pop. Ed. Activity is for Grades 6-12 By Pam Wasserman, Vice President for Education
Introduction:
Although 75 percent of the Earth’s surface
Set up:
1. Gather all materials.
is covered with water, only a very small frac-
2. Fill one of the larger containers with one
tion is available for human use. Of the water
liter (1,000 ml) of water and add 4 drops of
that is available to us, some becomes con-
blue food coloring. This represents the total
taminated from human actions, such as toxic
amount of water in the world and is what
run-off from agriculture, factories, or pollu-
you’ll be dividing into the other containers.
tants that we dump in the water supply
3. Fill one small container with sand and
from our sinks at home. Population growth
label it “deep groundwater.”
over the past 30 years has caused demand
4. Label the other large container “oceans”
for water to double in about half the coun-
and the remaining three small containers
tries in the world. Residents of states with
“polar ice,” “other,” and “fresh water.”
rapidly growing populations, as well as citi-
5. Make a transparency or PowerPoint slide
zens of other countries, often experience
of the table at right.
water shortages. In the following activity,
6. Measure and set aside 34 grams of salt.
students will gain an appreciation for the ways we use water and the need to conserve it.
Demonstration:
Perform the following class demonstration to help students visualize the distribution of
Materials:
Earth’s water resources:
6 clear containers (2 larger containers; 4 smaller containers—plastic is best)
22
The Reporter — June 2009
1. Display the six containers prepared for
1,000 ml graduated cylinder
this activity.
Overhead projector or PowerPoint
2. Display a transparency or slide of the
1 liter of water
table at right. Explain to the class that the
Salt (34 grams)
one liter of water represents all of the water
Sand (approximately 250 ml)
in the world.
Blue food coloring
3. Use the graduated cylinder to distribute
Eye dropper
the one liter of water into the five containers
Plate
as follows:
Graph paper
a) Pour 971 ml into the large “oceans”
Calculators (optional)
container. Then add the salt, explaining
Freezer
that the salinity of the Earth’s oceans is
3.5 percent. Adding 34 grams of salt to the 971 ml of water will match the salinity ratio of the water sample with the salinity of the oceans. b) Pour 22 ml into the “polar ice” container. Place this container in the freezer, if convenient. c) Pour 3 ml into the “deep groundwater” container with the sand. d) Pour 1 ml into the “other” container. Explain that this is water we don’t have access to, and that it is found in clouds, saltwater lakes, etc. e) Pour the remaining 3 ml into the “fresh water” container. 4. Ask the students which of the containers represents fresh water that is readily available for human use. (They should easily see that only the jar marked “fresh water” has the readily available supply. The deep groundwater is also fresh, but it is not readily available.) Only a small part of this fresh water (0.3 percent of the Earth’s total water supply) is
Excerpted from “Water, Water Everywhere,” a teaching activity in Population Connection’s new secondary curriculum, Earth Matters: Studies for Our Global Future (3rd edition), available on CDROM. ©2009 See www.populationeducation.org for more details.
accessible. The rest is too remote (found in Amazon or Siberian rivers) to locate, too expensive to retrieve, or too polluted to use. Hold a plate in front of the class and dramatically drop the usable portion of fresh water onto it. (Represent this portion as one drop of water from an eye dropper.) Initiate a discussion on the limits of fresh water supplies, the problems of population growth and distribution, and the contamination of existing supplies. Ask students to brainstorm ways to ensure that our supply of water will be sufficient to meet the needs of our growing population. www.popconnect.org
Distribution of the World’s Water Supply Oceans
Polar Ice
97.1%
Other (saltwater lakes, soil and atmospheric moisture, glaciers) Deep Groundwater Fresh Water
2.2% .1% .3% .3%
June 2009 — The Reporter
23
Remark
24
The Reporter — June 2009
NEWS & RECORD
Chattanooga Times Free Press
(Greensboro, North Carolina)
(Chattanooga, Tennessee)
While it is true that Georgia is no longer officially
Many North Carolina cities approached the point
in the drought category, that certainly does not
of water insolvency less than two years ago.
mean the state’s water woes are over. The extraor-
Without better planning, worse can happen the
dinary drought was a long time in the making and
next time.
it will take months, or possibly years, of average or above-average rainfall and conservation to properly restore surface water levels and aquifers. The problem, put simply, is demographic. A growing population makes it increasingly difficult to match available water supplies—even in times of
If we face periodic water shortages with 9 million people, we won't endure the droughts that will occur a couple of decades from now when our population reaches 12 million without changing the way we manage our water accounts. North Carolina's economic development and the
adequate rainfall—to demand. Georgia is not alone
health of its communities depend on water. Rain
in that problem, but years of almost unrestricted
won't automatically increase to keep up with popu-
growth in areas like Atlanta and little attention to
lation growth, so it's necessary to make better use
the need for infrastructure and policies to mitigate
of what nature provides.
consumption of water make the state a poster child for the issue.
—Editorial Excerpt, April 8, 2009 —Editorial Excerpt, April 27, 2009
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