“What to Expect?” Nothing New
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s half of a married couple that’s chosen not to have children, I’m used to criticism from certain circles. The New York Times’ David Brooks wrote that humans are better off when they’re “enshrouded in commitments that transcend personal choice”— such as babymaking. Ross Douthat is a master of this genre, calling childfree people “decadent” and saying our life “embraces the comforts and pleasures of modernity, while shrugging off the basic sacrifices.” Which is interesting, because the last time I looked, we pay plenty of taxes, have a 13-year-old car, and live in a one-bedroom, 680-squarefoot apartment. So what did I expect in What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster? More of the same guilt-tripping. And a heaping dose of “birth dearth” scare-mongering, given the “Disaster” subhead. I was not disappointed. The author, Jonathan Last, is not a demographer or any sort of population expert. He’s a writer from the (decidedly right-leaning) Weekly Standard with a (decidedly right-leaning) agenda. In the book’s acknowledgements, he thanks Tom Phillips of the Phillips Foundation for the fellowship that allowed Last to write the book. The Phillips Foundation board is full of people from rightwing organizations, including Eagle Publishing, Regnery Publishing, The Heritage Foundation, The American Spectator, and Focus on the Family. So how is he on the demographic arguments? Shaky, at best. Last is correct that America’s total fertility rate recently slipped below
10 The Reporter — June 2013
replacement. But it’s also true that historically, that has happened every time the economy is weak. People hesitate to add to their families when they’re unsure about their job security or lack the income to rent a larger home. You’d think this would be reason for celebration. Look how responsible Americans are being! Not if you ask Last. “Sub-replacement fertility rates eventually lead to a shrinking population—and throughout recorded human history, declining populations have always followed or been followed by Very Bad Things. Disease. War. Economic stagnation or collapse,” he writes. Some leading conservatives aren’t buying this weak sauce “argument.” Economics professor Bryan Caplan of George Mason University might have said it best on the Library of Economics and Liberty blog when he wrote: History is full of cases where Very Bad Things happen, then population falls as a result: the Black Death, the Mongol invasions, the conquest of the New World. But history is not full of cases when population falls as a result of low fertility, then Very Bad Things happen. Indeed, I’m not aware of any clear-cut examples of the latter. And as far as I can tell, Last doesn’t provide any such examples. Last also seems concerned that the “right” people aren’t reproducing. You’d think that if he were so desperate for more babies, he’d welcome them regardless of the status of their parents. That doesn’t seem to be the case. “Middle-class Americans don’t have very many babies these days,” he lamented. In fact, his very
definition of “middle-class” should raise eyebrows. “In America, the fertility rate for white, college-educated women—[a] fair proxy for our middle-class—is 1.6,” he writes in the introduction. It certainly boosts his argument given that minority women have a higher fertility rate, but it doesn’t do much to bolster his credibility or reduce the suspicion that fear of a changing American complexion is driving at least some of Last’s panic. Last’s book is full of other bizarre assertions. He repeatedly blames child car seats—which he calls “vaguely antifamily”—for the drop in the fertility rate, since parents can’t pile kids in the back seat of the Ford station wagon like cord wood any longer. He also blames the gays, saying that “the growing acceptance of homosexuality liberated gay men and women who, in the past, often unhappily made do with heterosexual life.” Of course, gay and lesbian people DO have families—and their protection is one reason for the recent push for marriage equality. He also dubiously claims that the “pace of human progress has slowed considerably since 1972” and blames Western fertility decline. I don’t know how Last defines progress, but I’m writing this using a desktop with more computing power than may have existed in a midsized American city in 1972. I just sent a comment via Twitter to two people in London and Canada simultaneously. I’m healthy thanks to two medications that hadn’t been invented in 1972. We’re progressing in so many ways. Last—to his credit, I suppose—doesn’t come right out and blame American women for refusing to do their wombly duty. But the implication is there. “As more and more women began attending college, they entered a broader array of